LUCKNOW: UP Congress and RLD alliance is all sealed and ready.

A strong indication to this effect came from the Union steel minister Beni Prasad Verma on Saturday. Speculating on the poll prospects of various key players in the arena before the media, Verma declared that the Congress-RLD combo was set to be a clear winner this time. " Mayawati will not go beyond 100 seats, Samajwadi Party will fail to bag more than 50 while Bharatiya Janata Party will stop at 30. Congress-RLD, he said, will end notching maximum 200 seats and no less, the minister announced. Ridiculing Mayawati's claims that UP was the best performing state under MNREGS, Verma said that the state fared worst and this fact is well acknowledged. He went on to trash the CM's proposal to divide the state. It is just a feeble attempt to garner support from an indifferent electorate which he claimed, would fail to yield any positive response. Division of a state is too serious a matter to be dealt with in such a reckless fashion, he pointed out. Congress, he said, was not opposed to the notion of the smaller states provided a proper procedure was followed and the move was initiated by the state reorganisation commission. So far we have hardly heard anyone making any demand for slicing Up in four and if at all Mayawati thought that is the only way to development why was she sitting over the proposal for more than four years of her majority rule . Hitting out at the politicized police force Verma said that the officers looked the other way as a band of SP goons broke into the security cordon to reach Rahul's helipad in Allahabad. The threat posed ,he said fully justified the action by Congress ministers who were left with no options. Refusing to feel apologetic about Rahul Gandhi's by now much hyped "UPites begging in Maharashtra"- Verma said that the remark has made him quite happy personally. It showed Rahul Gandhi's aggression and this new strategy could be a turing point for congress party in the coming elections, he claimed . The seasoned politician refused to comment on the internal bickering in the UP Congress over ticket distribution. "It is the only party which is alive and kicking rest of the opposition in Uttar Pradesh is dead. Therefore some kind of activity can always be seen but no negative inference, he emphasized.

If UP chief minister Mayawati intended to confuse her political opponents with her proposal to carve up the state into four new ones, she certainly succeeded. Both the Congress and the BJP were caught off-guard , unsure whether to support it or oppose it. Ajit Singh's RLD, which has been demanding statehood for Harit Pradesh or the

western rump of UP, perforce had to respond with enthusiasm. But it's put a question mark over his ongoing negotiations for a poll alliance with the Congress unless the latter takes a stand on this emotive issue. Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party is the only one that has come out clearly against the division but even he may face problems on the ground, especially in Bundelkhand where his workers have been campaigning for a separate state in response to burgeoning regional aspirations. But behind the seemingly gimmicky move, there appears to be a canny plan. A four-way division of UP is likely to change heartland politics in the future and possibly load the scales in Mayawati's favour. In undivided UP, she is one of the many contenders for power. Her meteoric rise in just two-and-a-half decades is the result of shrewd alliance politics and caste arithmetic . But in a state with wide regional and demographic variations, Mayawati cannot be sure of retaining her present pre-eminent position. The creation of four smaller states, on the other hand, could give her an advantage . Her Dalit voter base is evenly spread across the region. Consequently, she can hope to be a force to contend with in all the new states, unlike her rivals whose voters are concentrated in pockets. The Congress, for instance, is relevant mainly in the Awadh area of UP where the Nehru-Gandhi family's pocketboroughs of Rae Bareli, Amethi and Sultanpur are located. Mulayam Singh is a formidable presence in central UP and in parts of Bundelkhand. The BJP would be reduced to a bit player in the proposed Paschim Pradesh which has a strong Muslim population. Ajit Singh's clout doesn't extend beyond western UP. Mayawati's BSP is the only party that can boast of voter strength everywhere . This was evident in the results of the 2007 assembly polls in which she emerged either as the lead player or runner-up in all four regions. It also showed up in the 2009 parliamentary poll results in which again the BSP stood either first or second in a large number of constituencies . The Congress, which sprang a surprise by winning 21 seats, virtually swept Awadh but lost its deposit in most other areas, underlining its limited presence. Mayawati then is poised to be the biggest beneficiary of a split. This will clearly alter the political dynamics in the Hindi heartland in favour of smaller parties like the BSP with important implications for national politics. UP has long been regarded as the route to power in New Delhi with eight of the country's 14 prime ministers hailing from this politically crucial state that sends the largest block of MPs to the Lok Sabha (a total of 80). The state was the BJP's springboard to national power in the 1990s. And now, Rahul Gandhi has pinned his hopes of reviving the Congress party's glory days of single-party rule on a good showing in UP. A divided state in which Mayawati's BSP is the main political pole everywhere , or another regional party is a important player, will be a big

setback to his dreams. The division of UP can only hasten the ongoing process of political fragmentation that has seen the rise of smaller parties and brought them in as national players in coalition governments. But it may be inevitable . Regional parties like the TRS, which is fighting for Telengana statehood in Andhra Pradesh, have welcomed Mayawati's proposal with enthusiasm. While the creation of smaller states may be the answer to the quest for better governance, it represents a serious political challenge to the dominance of national parties. They will have to come up with creative responses to the gauntlet thrown down by the small players who are now clamouring for a bigger share of the power pie, whether in the states or on Raisina Hill.

Preparations for the Uttar Pradesh elections are on in full swing. Mayawati has taken an early lead, stumping rival parties completely by her proposal to divide the state into four parts. Other parties have been left speechless. At the very least, the BJP could have immediately made a

counter-proposal for dividing the state into eight parts, the Congress could then say it was all for 16 parts, while the Samajwadi Party could take the game to an entirely different level by suggesting a break-up of the state into 132 different parts, of which Mulayams house could be one. But this would be mere copycat tactics. To be really effective, they will have to come up with new ideas. Why not take a leaf out of Mamatas book and ask for a change in the states name? Uttar Pradesh merely means Northern Province, a bland and boring name. The BJP could start a campaign for calling it Uttam Pradesh (Excellent Province), which sounds far more aspirational. But a proposal by a diehard Congress loyalist to change the name to Puttar Pradesh (Province of the Son) may backfire. The BJP should also make it a point to distribute free lotuses to people, so that they remember which symbol to vote for. This strategy would allow them to steal a march

over their rivals, as it would be very expensive for the BSP to give away free elephants, while things could turn very grisly if the Congress started to chop off hands to distribute them. Promising free electricity and good roads no longer cuts any ice with voters. As the Tamil Nadu elections proved, what they want is free TVs, free mixer-grinders et al. Innovative ideas should be welcomed, such as the alleged proposal by a party (name withheld on request) to supply free opium to the electorate. The party spokesman pointed out the plan will have the additional merit of boosting trade ties with Afghanistan. Funding for elections is another very important area where the right strategy can make the difference between winning and losing your deposit. One method would be to organise a lottery where, say, prizes could be given daily to whoever chooses the winning number from 0 to 9. The payout could be five times the amount bet and the party organising the lottery pockets the rest. Of course, the number of disgruntled losers would be far more than the winners, so it would be best to camouflage the party behind the lottery. For instance, if the Samajwadi Party organises the gambling, it could call it the Congress lottery, so that the losers vote against the Congress. Its also very important to have both the right caste equation and muscle power. The best way to get that perfect combination would be to scour the states jails for the right candidates. They could then ensure that people are adequately terrorised to vote for their party. Needless to add, an essential part of this strategy is to claim that all acts of violence were instigated by rival parties. Finally, politicians must know how to manage the media. It would be silly to insist that journalists accompany you to hot and dusty election meetings deep in the rural heartland. Far better to organise meetings and morchas in Noida for them to cover, with candlelight marches as an added bonus. Candlelight marches look great on TV. In fact, I am seriously thinking of setting myself up as an election consultant, offering such ideas impartially to all parties. Strictly cash, please. ( Manas Chakravarty is Consulting Editor, Mint )

The biodata is impressive . At 38, Akhilesh Yadavis already a three-term MP, is right now leading the UP election campaign of the Samajwadi Party, and is in line to inherit the mantle of one of the state's premium political brands. For now, though, the young politician has a big job at hand. Sometime before May next year, the voters of UP will tell him if he is to lord over a thriving empire or a shrinking party. After a string of electoral debacles, this is make-or-break time for the Yadav scion

and as the spearhead of the party's poll effort he has reasons to be both elated and anxious. Leading the party's Kranti Rathyatra across the sprawling state, he has set at rest doubts, if any, about succession issues in his father's party. The crowds have been good,which is seen as an indication of the party cadre's eagerness to take on Mayawati's might after living in fear for years. The young Yadav's readiness to take centrestage is also a departure from the past, when he seemed reluctant to step out of the shadow of the man he and party loyalists call 'netaji' - Mulayam Singh. For long he's been the son in awe of his father, a crafty politician who made a solid compact of Muslims and backwards, once nearly making it to the PM's gaddi. In private conversations with leaders and journalists, Akhilesh is often said to have admitted that he doesn't see himself dominating landmark events as his father did with Mandal and Ayodhya , a role that pitchforked him from UP to the national stage. Some say there are signs of change. And while Akhilesh may still not measure up to his wily wrestler-father , his neat upstaging of uncle Shivpal Yadav in the inhouse power struggle indicates a level of political shrewdness . Quite a change for a man whose naive hopes of sharing power in UPA-II saw him getting outwitted by "friend" Rahul Gandhi who came to campaign against his wife in the 2009 Ferozabad Lok Sabha byelection . Dimple Yadav's defeat was a personal blow and a devastated Akhilesh is said to have sworn revenge: "It's me versus Rahul now." Which may partly explain the sense of urgency he betrays now. But this readiness to lead the charge comes without a buffer. The Samajwadi scion has to win this election or yield ground to rivals eager to fill the vacuum. The cadre is restive, dreading another spell out of power. With father Mulayam not in the best of health, the protective umbrella, too, is looking feeble. "I have worked very hard.... this election will settle many doubts," Akhilesh told TOI in a recent chat, exuding confidence. But political observers are returning to the basic question: Can Akhilesh keep together the political compact, which includes Yadavs, other backwards and Muslims? Many are wondering if his urbane image would succeed like the rustic politics of his father. And voters might wonder if the son would stick to his father's Luddite impulses of "throwing out computers" and "only Hindi" or carve a new idiom for the backward constituencies. For the moment, there is little evidence either way.

Good brands are all about clarity consistency and credibility. How does Rahul Gandhi score on these fronts as he wades into his biggest test yet? The verdict is not very flattering, despite his recent speech in Phulpur that surprised many for its stridency.

Those in the business of brand-making say the Congress heir-apparent has miles to go before he can be considered a solid brand in the business of Indian politics. "Rahul is a product which people are trying to make into a brand," says Mithileshwar Jha, professor o f marketing, IIM-Bangalore . "A brand should have a clear franchise. We don't know enough about Rahul. Who is his audience ? Is he a socialist or a marketfriendly person? Does he want to take India into the 22nd century? His guerilla tactics of hitting out at opponents and then occupying some other space won't work in politics," he says. Moreover, a brand should be consistent , which some say Rahul isn't . His 'empathy' for the Kalavatis of India doesn't seem genuine as he hasn't done anything really substantial for them, says Jha. "His angry young man image in Phulpur isn't consistent with his personality which is not that of a street fighter." Rahul also needs to get a pan-Indian identity, stresses Prathap Suthan, chief creative officer of iYogi,a global consumer services brand. His "localized attempts" at attacking Mayawati over "mafia raj" and land acquisition aren't enough, says Suthan. "He could easily have taken the thunder out of Anna Hazare's crusade by sitting on a fast along with him. He would have gained public sympathy and been seen as serious about fighting corruption." A brand is built over time and requires assiduous planning. In that sense, Rahul still has time on his side. Ad film director Prahlad Kakkar says, "You don't have to be macho or good-looking for that. It's about decency, sensitivity and the capacity to push an agenda." Rajiv Gandhi, he adds, was seen as a leader taking India into the 21st century; Nitish Kumar is perceived to be "modern", Oommen Chandy transparent and Narendra Modi investment-friendly . What of Rahul Gandhi? So far it's mainly the name, says Suthan. "Just like a strong brand such as Nike stands for a shoe and not soap, the Gandhi name connotes statesmanship and power. Rahul has to capitalize on that." If he hasn't been able to do that yet,it's partly because he is encumbered by the numerous scams that have tumbled out of the Congress closet. It's also because of his "lack of voice" , as Priti Nair, director of Curry Nation, an ad agency, puts it.

"We hardly hear him talk. Even a spoof can't be done on him as he has no inimitable style," she says. On the positive side, he's young, good-looking , educated and untainted - in short, refreshingly different."His credibility , unlike arrogant leaders such as Kapil Sibal and P Chidambaram, hasn't hit a low. He seems to have the same value systems as us,"says Kakkar. Whether those "value systems" will fetch votes in the dustbowls of UP remains to be seen. For Prasoon Joshi, chairman and CEO of McCann Worldgroup India, Rahul is a brand waiting to be launched. "Sometime he'll have to bite the bullet and UP could be the testing ground." Both his friends and detractors are waiting for the verdict - from the people.