Deutsches BiomasseForschungsZentrum

German Biomass Research Centre

ICS-UNIDO Summer School on Next Generation Biofuels

Decision support tool for the assessment of biofuel sustainability

Anastasios Perimenis
Bologna, September 18th, 2009
in cooperation with

German Biomass Research Centre, Torgauer Str. 116, D-04347 Leipzig, www.dbfz.de

Content

1. 2. 3.

Background Decision support systems - Introduction Decision support tool for biofuels

General framework Methodology

4. 5.

Application Conclusions & recommendations

Background

Biofuels in brief
Increased interest for biofuels in the world context Mandates and policies supporting biofuels Means against anthropogenic GHG emissions Security of energy supply for the transport sector Reduced oil reserves Current generation already established. Research focused on next generation biofuels Production alone is not enough. Sustainability of production is the main concern (ISCC, RTSB) Large number of biofuel pathways analysed. Large amount of data to be

Background

Biofuel pathways

Decision Support Systems

Introduction
Decisions are part of everydays life Decision making is a demanding and time consuming process
Problem Recongition Implementation Problem Definition

Selection

Alternative generation

Alternative Analysis
Source: Shim et al, 2002

Model development

An iterative process
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Decision Support Systems

Introduction
Decision support systems (DSS) are computational systems that: form the decision environment (e.g. actors, problems, impacts) structure the decision making process by defining goals and means to achieve them link strictly computational attributes with the users judgement ability promote cooperation and debate between actors provide decision makers help in order to make well educated decisions help the user decide; not decide instead
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Decision Support Systems

Introduction
Fundamental characteristics of DSS: Database to store information Model with algorithms for the analysis Interface for interaction with the user Decision aiding has been used in various sectors Water management Health care planning Energy sector Environmental protection Decision systems for the bioenergy sector (BioAS, Biotrans, Gemis)

Decision Support Systems

Overview of existing systems

Parameter
Developer

BioAS
Mihailo Pupin, Belgrade / ICS UNIDO, Italy heat and power MCA with outranking method multi-objective option ranking yes yes (extended) yes many evaluation criteria not entire pathway

Biotrans
ECN, the Netherlands transport biofuels cost analysis economic cost effective biofuel mix yes no no many alternatives, comprehensive strictly cost oriented

Biomitre
IEA Bioenergy Task 30 energy and transport LCA environment GHG emissions, PE consumption , costs for avoidance yes no no quick LCA tool interface

Gemis
ko Institut, Germany energy and transport LCA environment environmental effects, costs yes yes (limited) no very thorough complexity
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Bioenergy sector Approach Focus area Result Integrated database Social aspect User preference Main advantage Main weakness

Decision support tool for biofuels

General framework
Pathway selection & break-down

Aspect & criteria determination

Data inventory

Aspect analysis

Data inventory

Results (values for criteria)

Criteria selection Multi Criteria Analysis

DECISION
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Decision support tool for biofuels

Methodology
Pre-decision stage (analysis part) Pathway selection & breakdown (WTW concept)
Country specific characteristics
Module A Biomass production Module B Biomass transport Module C Biofuel production Module D Biofuel distribution Module E

Biomass Land

Logistics

Conversion

Logistics

Biofuel use

Mobility

Aspect determination Technical Economic Environmental Social

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Decision support tool for biofuels

Methodology
Criteria determination Technical aspect - Conversion rate (quant.) tfeedstock/tbiofuel - Energy efficiency (quant.) MJbiofuel/MJinput - Complexity (qual.)

- Development status (qual.)

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Decision support tool for biofuels

Methodology
Economic aspect - Biofuel production costs (quant.) /lbiofuel - Well-to-Wheel (WTW) costs (quant.) /km Environmental aspect - Greenhouse gas emissions (quant.) t_CO2-eq/GJbiofuel - Primary energy demand (quant.) MJPE/GJbiofuel Social aspect - Direct jobs (quant.) FTE/kgbiofuel

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Decision support tool for biofuels

Methodology
Data inventory
Module Data examples

Biomass properties, yields, land requirement, fertilizers & Biomass production pesticides, water & fuel demand, labour, machinery, investment & operational costs, emission factors, etc Biomass transport Biofuel production Biofuel distribution Biofuel use Road modality, vehicle type, fuel consumption, distances, prices, emission factors, etc technical data, product properties & yields, auxiliaries & energy demand, investment, prices, emission factors, etc Road modality, vehicle type, prices, fuel consumption, distances, emission factors, etc Vehicle type, fuel consumption, annual use, distances, emission factors, etc
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Decision support tool for biofuels

Methodology
Decision stage (user involvement) Multi criteria analysis (MCA) characteristics Complex problems conflicting criteria of different gravity compromise for optimal solution

Impossible to optimize all

Consideration of user preference Connection of analytical part with personality characteristics Consolidation of different opinions within a group
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Decision support tool for biofuels

Methodology
MCA methodology Results from pre-decision stage Assign points to criteria

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Decision support tool for biofuels

Methodology
Assign points to criteria Criteria of different attributes Conversion into a form appropriate for evaluation Point scale as a common basis

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Decision support tool for biofuels

Methodology
MCA methodology Results from pre-decision stage Assign points to criteria Determine importance of aspects and criteria

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Decision support tool for biofuels

Methodology
Determine importance of aspects and criteria Expression of personal preference Assign weighs to aspects and criteria Preferential ranking matrix
+ : more important 3 points 0 : equally importnat 2 points - : less important 1 points

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Decision support tool for biofuels

Methodology
MCA methodology Results from pre-decision stage Assign points to criteria Determine importance of aspects and criteria Assign a score to the pathway Compare and rank pathways Decide Decide as group Review procedure
Group DST
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Application example

RME value chain

Biodiesel from rapeseed (RME) under German conditions
Cultivation Mod. A Drying and Storage

Mod. B

Transport

Extraction Mod. C Refining Transesterification

Mod. D

Distribution

Mod. E

End-use
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Application example

Results
Criteria Technical
Conversion rate Energy efficiency Complexity Development status
tRS/tRME % -

Unit

Value 2,47 62 Medium Commercial 0,62 85,4 1,48 236

Points 4 3 3 5 3 2 3 5

Weight 0,25 0,27 0,38 0,19 0,15 0,38 1,00 0,25 0,5 0,15 0,13 1,00
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Economic
RME production costs
/lRME

Environmental
Greenhouse gas emissions Primary energy demand
kg_CO2-eq/GJRME GJPE/GJRME

Social
Direct jobs
FTE

Pathway score
Legend: RS rape seed ; FTE Full time equivalent

3,39 out of 5

(67,8%)

Conclusions & recommendations

Basic characteristics:
Integration of all aspects along the entire value chain Link with database User involvement Easily interpreted results

More to add:
- Sensitivity analyses for influence factors - More pathways including reference - More criteria (land use change, indirect & induced job effect, biodiversity, GHG mitigation costs - Programming language

With further development it can be used by various actors (, scientific institutions, governments, NGOs, private companies) in a local and national scale.
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ICS-UNIDO Summer school on next generation bofuels Bologna 18th, Italy

Decision support tool for the assessment of biofuel sustainability

Deutsches BiomasseForschungsZentrum gemeinntzige GmbH German Biomass Research Centre Torgauer Strae 116 D-04347 Leipzig www.dbfz.de Tel./Fax. +49 341 - 2434 112 / -133

M.Sc. Dipl.-Ing. Anastasios Perimenis Tel. +49 341 2434 551 anastasios.perimenis@dbfz.de

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