BENVGSA3 : GI Systems and Science

MRes ASAV CASA, The Bartlett UCL December 2011

Analysis of Housing Development in Greater London

Mohammad A Al Masum

Overview Greater London estimates 7,753,600 population accommodated by the City of London and other 32 boroughs covering 1,572 km2 (607 sq mi). [1][2][3] Housing being the core issue of urban system, the study was focused on its phenomenon in London. An overview of the housing scenario is perceived through different level of visualization and analysis was produced integrating vacant land suitable for residential development, larger scale housing developments, planning proposals and relationship between the features. This will lead us to identify the opportunity areas of housing development to tackle the challenge of the Greater London In near future. Data Sources: Housing development depends on suitable brown land availability and area of opportunities. It is useful to spend time and concentration on planning the data sources. As the study area was identified, data sources were much predefined, though it was a challenge to discover such integrated data. Almost all data was collected from authenticated government sources. [4][5][6] Data Mining and Optimization: Among numerical datasets, relevant information about the housing development was observed and only the related information was picked such as Suitable Brown Sites identified for residential Developments, Planning Approval of such schemes and Total number of projects and coverage area [sq. mt.] in 2009. Map Data Integration: London was selected in England Region with collecting OA and Wards which was dissolved into Borough level representations. The data available was borough level information and Map was customized for the same level to initiate the scope of analysis.

Fig 1: Location of Greater London

Fig 2: London Boroughs

Data Visualization: Different visualization was implemented to identify the data visualization for different aspects of housing development in London. Here are different steps discussedPoint Representation In this map, all major residential projects were represented as a pointed feature. It illustrates the overall scenario of residential development. Brown Lands The sites were identified and the shape file was provided with the area coverage of the sites. And this gives us overall picture of opportunity residential areas of London in the given period. Planning applications Here are few illustrations relating planning applications and normalisation with net sq mt and gross units of residential development approved in 2009. This will give us an overall development scenario in London in a specific year.

Fig 3: Residential Development sites 2005-10

Fig 4: Brown Land Sites of London, 2007

Fig 5: Planning Application, Gross Net Residential Approval and SqMt Approved Analysis of development and growth: Here we illustrate different analysis to evaluate the growth pattern in residential development of London. Sequentially, we consider hotspot analysis and following towards IDW along with Kriging for a raster representation with merge of Principal results as a cloud representation in RGB format. This creates a very artistic representation of data which represents intensity with colour scheme.

Hot Spot Analysis7 After the data is integrated between residential development and available brown lands for such developments, an hotspot analysis will derive the prospective zonal understanding with IDW on the hotspot result of the prospective development sites. IDW 7 and KDE7 Analysis These two analyses were carried out and the values were integrated with the representation in more interactive representation in Principal Component Function to have an overall view of the development. Kriging7 For a raster analysis between IDW and KDE, the tool termed as Kriging was followed to have more integral density analysis with GiZScore value of Hot Spot analysis. Principal Components7 This is a spatial analysis tool for raster interpretation of different raster data. So, the raster results of IDW and Kriging were the input for such interesting integrated raster representation of housing development trend of London.

Fig 6: Hot Spot Analysis: Res. Units/Brown

Fig 7: IDW of Proposed Residential Units

Fig 8: Kriging of Hotspot GiZScore

Fig 9: Kriging of Hotspot GiZScore

GWR Analysis7 After the previous results, GWR analysis will have more realistic relationship between residential application and development area approved. Here we have a Global R2 value of 0.606834 and Local R2 value upto 0.4842. With this analysis, we can clearly determine that development occurred between 50-60% of the total development opportunity in residential development in Greater London. Model of the Analysis: Fig 10: GWR analysis of Housing App/Sq.mt

Here we attach the model of the analysis which can run in Arc GIS10 from the toolbox to get the similar sort of steps on any relevant analysis-

Fig 11: Model of the Analysis

Other Considerations and Limitations There are few considerations of minor extension projects or relevant development such of change of use which can be considered towards housing development scenario of London. There are few other considerations of looking into different local aspects, such as central London predominantly being considered commercial zone and same applies for part of Tower Hamlets and Newham inviting Olympics 2012 and Canary Wharf as second important financial hub of London.

Scope of the analysis: This analysis certainly derives the overall picture of residential development trend of London and can be extended towards more detailed local analysis. We can also decide to concentrate in southern part of London as being identified more prospective development scope with availability of brown land and application approved in the mentioned region. This sort of detail analysis can be a tool for assisting policy organizations such as local authorities and private investors considering residential investments. 3D Representations: At the end of such analysis, we can expand with some other way of analysing the development trend. Here is an initial indication what can be drawn in next stage of this sort of representation and integration of data. This 3d Model is prepared from the shape file of the brown land with the probable unit permitted. In extended research we can perform a volumetric analysis in 3d analyst tools to suggest more about build volume density and other aspects of physical planning for housing development in different areas of Greater London. Conclusion: This study certainly overlooks in a specific aspect of the city which is housing development but certainly is an integral analysis for other relevant issues based related to housing such as transportation, education, retail etc. There are more aspects related and integrated to each other in a large city scape as London. This is realized that such analysis in different aspects of the city and integration between the aspects will be necessary for the future smart cities. References:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. John Hollis, Focus on Lonon 2010: Population and Migration, Greater London Authority, Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database rights 2010), ISSN 1479-7879 Travers, T., The Politics of London, (2004) Metropolis World Association of the Major Metropolises. ISBN 978-0-7306-2020-4 National Statistics UK: http://www.statistics.gov.uk Greater London Authority, http://www.london.gov.uk Longley, Goodchild, Maguire, Rhind, 2011, Geographic Information Systems and Science, ISBN: 978-0-470-72144-5

Fig 8: 3D view of Density of housing dev.

Relevant websites and Readings:

Greater London Authority: http://www.london.gov.uk National Statistics UK: http://www.statistics.gov.uk The Electoral Commission: http://www.electoralcommission.gov.uk Local Authorities Gateway http://local.gov.uk/ Directgov: http://www.direct.gov.uk EDINA: http://edina.ac.uk/

Further Sources and Relevant Readings:

London brown field data: Residential Development Data: http://data.london.gov.uk/datastore/package/london-brownfield-sites-review], http://www.londonbrownfieldsites.org/Content/Brownfield.aspx Landuse data: http://www.communities.gov.uk/planningandbuilding/planningbuilding/planningstatistics/landusechange Development Data: http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk Borders data, UKBORDERS http://www.edina.ac.uk ArcGIS Spatial Analyst | Overview - Esri http:// www.esri.com/software/arcgis/extensions/spatialanalyst/index.html esri conference, urban growth analysis, OLS, GWR application http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqMul3OIQNI 911 density analysis http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnCBUe4I26Q&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqOkBvQ3cCA&feature=related esri tv: 3d analysis http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnMgdwpNSeo GeoDa Center E-slides: Spatial Autocorrelation, http://geodacenter.asu.edu/eslides useful library of instructions, Arizona state university, USA http://geodacenter.asu.edu/eslides conference abstracts http://www.ncsa.illinois.edu/Conferences/SpatialThinking/abstracts.html Spatial Autoregressive Models http://www.unc.edu/~rls/s940/Areal.pdf Advanced GIS Spatial Analysis Using Raster and Vector Data - Esri www.esri.com/library/whitepapers/pdfs/arcgis_spatial_analyst.pdf pipe for data.. http://pipes.yahoo.com/pipes/pipe.edit?_id=6e333b73c5d6449dc844a89929b203eb open data http://openlylocal.com/ GIS Tips http://gis.harvard.edu/icb/icb.do Burrough, P. and MacDonnell, R. 1999. Principles of Geographic Information Systems. Oxford University Press, Oxford. de Smith M J, Goodchild M F, Longley P A (2009) Geospatial Analysis, 3rd edition.* Fischer, M. and Getis, A. (eds). 2010. Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis. Springer, New York. Longley P A, Goodchild M F, Maguire, D J and Rhind, D W 2010 (3rd ed). Geographic Information Systems and Science. Wiley, Hoboken, NJ.USA Mitchell, A. 2005. The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis Volume 2: Spatial Measurements and Statistics. Esri Press, Redlands.