Technical Research | January 23, 2012

Daily Technical Report Sensex (16739) / NIFTY (5049)

On Friday, our Benchmark indices witnessed a volatile trading session and managed to close near 5050 mark. During the session, indices tested psychological levels of 16600 / 5000 and strong buying in final hour of trade led Indices to close near days high. On the sectoral front, Banking, Consumer Durables and Power sectors were among the major gainers, whereas FMCG ended in the negative territory. The advance to decline ratio was marginally in favor of declining counters. (A=1363 D=1481) (Source www.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation:
The 20-week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is placed at 16504 / 4957 level. We are witnessing a positive crossover on weekly RSI

Smoothened oscillator. Indices are nearing a Downward Sloping Trend Line

drawn by joining July 8, 2011, weekly high of 19132 / 5740 and October 28, 2011, weekly high of 17908 / 5400. The 200-day SMA is placed at 17384 / 5220 level. The daily chart indicates formation of Gravestone
Source: Falcon

Doji Japanese candlestick pattern.

Trading strategy:
Last week indices have rallied significantly after crossing 16421 / 4920 level and have managed to close almost at the highest point of the week. Markets are now nearing strong resistance level of 17004 / 5100. Also, as mentioned above, the Gravestone Doji candlestick pattern indicates the possibility of a profit booking or a consolidation. We advise traders to book profits in individual counters and stay light on positions. Going forward, if indices sustain below 16572 / 4991 level, then indices are likely to correct towards 16384 16116 / 4931 4840 levels. Conversely, indices have closed convincingly above the 20-week EMA placed at 16504 / 4957 level.
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Actionable points:
View Resistance levels Support levels Neutral 5064 5100 4991 4931

Also, we are observing a positive crossover on weekly RSI Smoothened oscillator. Therefore, after a healthy correction or consolidation, if indices manage to break and sustain above 17004 / 5100, then we may witness strong upside momentum, which can push indices to test 200-day SMA level of 17384 / 5220 level. In the coming week, traders are advised to stay cautious as volatility is likely to increase on account of the RBIs monetary policy and derivative expiry.

Technical Research | January 23, 2012

Bank Nifty Outlook - (9517)

On Fridays session, once again Bank Nifty opened with an upside gap, and gained momentum as the day progressed to close near days high. The index tested 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 31st October 2011 20th December 2011. We are now observing a positive crossover in ADX (9) indicator on the weekly chart. The effect of this indicator will be witnessed if the index manages to sustain above Fridays high of 9560. In such a case Bank Nifty is likely to test 9650 9900 levels. On the downside 9390 9265 levels are likely to act as support in coming trading session.

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Actionable points:
View Resistance Levels Support Levels Neutral 9650 9900 9390 - 9265
Source: Falcon

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Technical Research | January 23, 2012

Positive Bias:
Expected Target 285

Stock Name BHEL

CMP 273.7

5 Day EMA 271.2

20 Day EMA 262.6

Remarks View will change below 266

Negative Bias:
Expected Target 2390

Stock Name Grasim

CMP 2489.2

5 Day EMA 2493

20 Day EMA 2460.9

Remarks View will change above 2530

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Technical Research | January 23, 2012

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELCAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 16,536 4,979 9,157 1,131 154 930 1,418 333 262 527 339 328 209 1,595 361 404 680 475 1,814 138 387 798 110 2,558 193 509 64 460 1,238 628 1,058 169 266 900 99 454 86 307 760 452 89 88 1,875 184 734 110 514 22 213 102 423 1,063 401 S1 16,638 5,014 9,337 1,140 156 970 1,490 338 268 544 343 333 211 1,620 367 411 686 483 1,880 141 389 820 115 2,574 197 522 66 477 1,256 642 1,081 172 271 924 100 461 88 315 776 466 90 90 1,904 187 744 112 521 23 216 104 430 1,071 408 PIVOT 16,713 5,039 9,449 1,150 159 995 1,532 342 272 554 346 337 214 1,657 371 417 690 488 1,938 144 391 836 122 2,592 204 531 67 488 1,275 661 1,108 174 274 940 101 468 91 325 788 481 91 91 1,924 190 753 115 528 24 219 105 437 1,081 416 R1 16,814 5,074 9,629 1,160 162 1,034 1,604 347 278 571 350 342 217 1,682 377 423 697 496 2,004 147 393 858 128 2,607 208 544 68 505 1,293 675 1,131 177 279 964 102 475 93 333 804 495 93 93 1,953 193 763 117 536 25 222 107 444 1,089 422 R2 16,890 5,099 9,740 1,170 165 1,059 1,646 352 283 582 354 346 220 1,719 382 429 701 501 2,062 150 396 874 135 2,625 216 553 70 515 1,311 694 1,158 179 283 980 103 481 95 343 816 510 94 95 1,973 196 771 120 543 26 224 108 451 1,099 431

Technical Research Team

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Technical ResearchTechnical23, 2012 | January Report

RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head - Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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