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Bank of Maharashtra Result Updated
Bank of Maharashtra Result Updated
Bank of Maharashtra
Performance Highlights
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 1.9 0.1 35.0 3QFY11 522 309 90 % chg (yoy) 23.7 37.8 50.2
`46 `53
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 3QFY2012, Bank of Maharashtra reported a strong performance with a healthy 50.2% yoy growth in its net profit to `136cr, slightly lower than our estimate on account of higher tax provisioning (37% effective tax rate). On PBT basis, the reported figure of `215cr was in line with our estimates (`216cr). We recommend a Buy on the stock. Strong performance on operating front: During 3QFY2012, advances for the bank de-grew by 0.3% qoq (up by 14.0% yoy), while deposit growth was also muted at 0.8% qoq (up by 11.4% yoy). CASA deposits growth at 1.5% qoq (13.6% yoy) was relatively higher compared to the overall deposit growth (saving account deposits rising by 2.1% qoq (12.2% yoy)), leading to CASA ratio for the bank improving sequentially by 29bp to 41.0%. The bank shed around ~`2,000cr of high cost bulk deposits during 3QFY2012, due to which the cost of funds for the bank increased by a relatively lower 11bp qoq compared to 24bp qoq increase in the yield on advances. Consequently the reported NIMs witnessed a marginal improvement of 4bp qoq to 3.3%. The banks fee income witnessed healthy traction during 3QFY2012, growing by a healthy 25.2% yoy to `101cr. The banks asset quality remained healthy during 3QFY2012 with both absolute Gross and Net NPAs declining by 4% sequentially. While the gross NPAs improved from 2.15% to 2.06%, the net NPA ratio improved from 0.57% to 0.54%. The provision coverage ratio for 3QFY2012 continued to be high at 87.0%. The bank restructured ~`1,100cr of loans to the Rajasthan and Haryana SEBs during 3QFY2012, taking the outstanding restructured advances to `3,100cr (~8% of the overall loan book). The SEBs of UP and Gujarat have also approached the bank for restructuring and ~`700cr of advances pertaining to these utilities are expected to be restructured during 4QFY2012. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at attractive valuations, in our view, of 0.7x FY2013E ABV vs. its five-year range of 0.61.2x and median of 0.9x. On the back of high NIM, moderate fee income and relatively better asset quality than peers, we expect the bank to deliver healthy 26.3% earnings CAGR over FY201113E. We value the stock at 0.8x and hence recommend a Buy rating with a target price of `53 implying an upside of 16.4% Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 79.2 8.8 1.0 11.0
3m (1.2) (3.2)
FY2010 1,296 3.2 440 17.2 2.1 10.2 4.4 0.9 0.7 19.7
FY2011 1,968 51.9 330 (24.8) 2.8 6.2 7.3 0.8 0.4 11.3
FY2012E 2,545 29.3 481 45.6 3.3 8.6 5.2 0.7 0.5 13.7
FY2013E 2,949 15.9 721 49.8 3.4 9.8 4.6 0.7 0.7 16.9
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 1,871 1,435 436 0 0 1,226 645 150 140 101 10 22 17 795 370 233 136 425 210 215 80 136 37.1 1,800 1,371 427 0 3 1,167 633 145 147 112 (2) 24 12 778 353 228 125 425 278 147 46 100 31.5 3.9 4.7 2.1 (64.3) (84.2) 5.0 1.9 3.5 (4.7) (9.5) NA (6.7) 44.4 2.2 4.8 2.3 9.4 0.1 (24.6) 46.9 72.7 35.0 555bp 1,429 1,035 391 3 1 908 522 123 111 81 13 21 9 645 337 212 125 309 171 137 47 90 34.3 30.9 38.7 11.4 (98.2) (55.1) 35.1 23.7 21.3 26.6 25.2 (24.5) 5.3 87.6 23.2 9.8 10.1 9.4 37.8 22.6 56.8 69.4 50.2 276bp
Var. (%) (0.7) 7.1 0.7 2.9 (1.1) (2.1) (0.1) 14.1 (6.9)
3QFY12 49,872 69,926 71.3 6,528 22,145 28,673 41.0 11.8 7.1 6.5 11.8 7.2 9.5 6.2 3.3 46.5 1,045 2.1 272 0.5 87.0 1.1
2QFY12 50,043 69,376 72.1 6,550 21,699 28,249 40.7 11.9 7.1 6.3 11.5 7.1 9.2 6.0 3.2 45.3 1,094 2.2 284 0.6 86.0 0.8
% chg (qoq) (0.3) 0.8 (81)bp (0.3) 2.1 1.5 29bp (13)bp (5)bp 11bp 22bp 3bp 31bp 27bp 4bp 115bp (4.5) (9)bp (4.4) (3)bp 104bp 36bp
3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 43,763 62,752 69.7 5,493 19,743 25,236 40.2 13.2 7.4 5.4 9.8 7.2 8.1 5.2 3.0 52.2 1,377 3.2 799 1.9 60.0 1.2 14.0 11.4 158bp 18.8 12.2 13.6 79bp (149)bp (32bp) 110bp 197bp 1bp 138bp 107bp 31bp (567)bp (24.1) (109)bp (66.0) (131)bp 2968bp (1)bp
39.0
15.7
15.9
14.0 7.0 -
8.4 1.8
7.1 6.5
0.3 1.8
6.4 1.9
0.8
2.0 (2.0)
69.0 68.0
36.0
40.2
40.4
40.6
40.7
(0.3)
67.0
41.0
3.2 1.9
2.5 1.3
2.4 1.2
2.2 0.6
2.1 0.5
20.0 100.0 80.0 46.5 60.0 40.0 20.0 1.9 -
Investment arguments
Healthy CASA share ensures low-cost funding
Bank of Maharashtra has enjoyed a healthy CASA ratio in the vicinity of 40% over the past several years on the back of strong rural and semi-urban presence (accounting for ~55% of the entire branch network). Branch expansion seems to be gradually picking up, with the addition of 69 branches in FY2011 and a target of adding similar number of branches in FY2012. Steady branch expansion and moderate balance sheet growth strategy is expected to aid the bank in maintaining its CASA share at ~40% levels over FY201213. Also, management has been focusing on reduction of dependence on bulk deposits. The benefit of healthy CASA ratio and a relatively lower dependence on bulk deposits is reflected in the banks relatively lower cost of deposits than peers (at 6.5% for 3QFY2012).
Attractive valuations
At the CMP, the stock is trading at attractive valuations, in our view, of 0.7x FY2013E ABV vs. its five-year range of 0.61.2x and median of 0.9x. On the back of high NIM, moderate fee income and relatively better asset quality than peers, we expect the bank to deliver healthy 26.3% earnings CAGR over FY201113E. We value the stock at 0.8x and hence recommend a Buy rating with a target price of `53 implying an upside of 16.4%
Earlier estimates FY2012 16.0 11.0 40.4 3.3 14.4 (20.0) 5.0 1.8 85.0 FY2013 13.0 14.0 39.4 3.3 4.1 13.0 13.0 2.8 82.0
Revised estimates FY2012 15.0 11.0 40.4 3.3 16.2 (20.0) 7.0 1.8 87.0 FY2013 16.0 14.0 39.4 3.4 2.1 13.0 13.0 2.7 82.0
FY2013 Earlier estimates 2,927 633 3,559 1,624 1,935 945 990 321 669 Revised Var. (%) estimates 2,949 630 3,580 1,635 1,945 878 1,067 346 721 0.8 (0.4) 0.6 0.7 0.5 (7.2) 7.8 7.8 7.8
Earlier estimates 2,543 607 3,150 1,437 1,713 933 781 253 527
Revised Var. (%) estimates 2,545 617 3,162 1,447 1,715 986 729 248 481 0.1 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.7 (6.6) (2.2) (8.8)
Oct-06
Feb-05
May-06
Nov-08
Feb-10
Sep-04
Sep-09
May-11
Dec-05
Mar-07
Aug-07
Dec-10
Oct-11
Jan-08
Jun-08
Jul-05
Apr-04
Apr-09
Jul-10
Mar-12
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) Preference Dividend PAT avl. to Eq. shareholders - YoY Growth (%) FY08 1,129 3.2 380 0.5 1,509 2.5 836 12.1 673 (7.4) 150 (61.6) 523 55.6 194 37.2 328 20.8 328 20.8 FY09 1,257 11.3 500 31.5 1,757 16.4 963 15.1 794 18.0 282 88.2 511 (2.2) 136 26.6 375 14.2 375 14.2 FY10 1,296 3.2 591 18.2 1,887 7.5 1,073 11.4 815 2.6 246 (13.0) 569 11.3 129 22.7 440 17.2 440 17.2 FY11 1,968 51.9 531 (10.2) 2,499 32.4 1,644 53.2 855 5.0 467 90.1 388 (31.8) 57 14.8 330 (24.8) 34 297 (32.5) FY12E 2,545 29.3 617 16.2 3,162 26.5 1,447 (12.0) 1,715 100.5 986 111.0 729 88.0 248 34.0 481 45.6 65 416 40.3 FY13E 2,949 15.9 630 2.1 3,580 13.2 1,635 13.0 1,945 13.4 878 (11.0) 1,067 46.4 346 32.4 721 49.8 62 659 58.4
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital - Equity - Preference Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 431 431 1,351 41,758 23.1 199 2,168 2,244 48,151 3,894 332 12,283 29,286 27.8 220 2,136 48,151 23.4 FY09 431 431 2,087 52,255 25.1 190 2,068 2,001 59,030 3,881 224 18,382 34,291 17.1 655 1,597 59,030 22.6 FY10 431 431 2,428 63,304 21.1 129 2,668 2,096 71,056 5,315 1,379 21,324 40,315 17.6 660 2,063 71,056 20.4 FY11 1,070 482 588 2,901 66,845 5.6 577 2,500 2,550 76,442 3,846 203 22,491 46,881 16.3 667 2,354 76,442 7.6 FY12E 1,070 482 588 3,233 74,198 11.0 640 2,875 2,835 84,851 4,823 424 22,360 53,913 15.0 718 2,613 84,851 11.0 FY13E 1,260 672 588 4,402 84,585 14.0 735 3,335 3,082 97,398 5,498 487 25,075 62,539 16.0 799 3,000 97,398 14.8
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Pref. Div. RoA after Pref. Div Leverage RoE 2.6 0.3 2.2 0.2 2.4 0.7 3.1 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 25.0 18.9 2.3 0.5 1.8 0.3 2.1 0.6 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 28.0 19.6 2.0 0.4 1.6 0.3 1.9 0.6 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.7 29.1 19.7 2.7 0.6 2.0 0.1 2.1 0.6 2.8 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 27.6 11.3 3.2 1.2 1.9 0.0 2.0 0.7 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.5 26.0 13.7 3.2 1.0 2.3 0.0 2.3 0.7 3.0 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.7 23.1 16.9 5.9 1.1 4.4 5.2 1.0 3.3 4.4 0.9 4.4 7.3 0.8 4.4 5.2 0.7 3.3 4.6 0.7 4.4 7.6 39.6 2.0 8.7 46.3 1.5 10.2 48.6 2.0 6.2 57.3 2.0 8.6 67.9 1.5 9.8 68.9 2.0 2.6 0.9 1.1 0.2 66.8 2.3 0.8 1.2 0.3 65.9 3.0 1.6 2.5 0.4 54.7 2.5 1.3 1.7 0.5 65.6 2.8 0.6 1.8 1.1 87.0 4.3 1.0 2.7 0.9 82.0 42.2 70.1 10.9 5.4 35.7 65.6 10.8 5.5 36.9 63.7 12.8 5.7 40.4 70.1 13.4 8.0 40.4 72.7 13.6 7.9 39.4 73.9 15.3 9.4 2.7 55.4 0.8 18.9 2.5 54.8 0.7 19.6 2.1 56.8 0.7 19.7 2.8 65.8 0.4 11.3 3.3 45.8 0.5 13.7 3.4 45.7 0.7 16.9 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Bank of Maharashtra No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11