Oil – End of Civilization

Many experts including Mathew Simmons in his book Twilight in the Desert:
The coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, sees a clouding oil
crisis that would bring the major economies of the world to their knees. We
have become addicted to a drug that is otherwise called OIL. The humankind
has become an inefficient engine, which consumes more energy and creates
less. We consume approximately 20 calorie of energy for an output of one
calorie.

India for too long has avoided that drug rather unconsciously. The country
consumes about 120 million tons of the 3889 million tons of global
consumption i.e. around 3.1% of the global consumption and this is
increasing at a rate of 5.5% per annum. This is nevertheless making us rich.
Oil consumption equals standard of living. Historically, the more we are
economically active the more energy we consumed; conversely the more
energy we consumed the more economic activity we had, the more wealth
we created; this is an endless natural cycle. More wealth leads to more
purchases, more purchases results in increased demand for products, which
in turn calls for more factories, more raw materials, more trips by trucks and
trains from the centre of manufacture to the centre of consumption. The
entire economy of the nations, and infact globe, is a constantly whining
wheel, steadily converting energy to wealth.

So Indians, having tasted oil otherwise wealth, are becoming as addicted to

it as the westerners are. We are already world’s sixth largest oil consumer
and in another 25 years would be the third largest consumer; if at all we
have oil to consume at that time. The global production of oil has to more
than double by 2025 and triple by 2060 to meet the demand growing at the
same rate. India’s own production has almost flattened for over a decade
and further significant addition seems to be a remote possibility in the near
future, at least till 2020. India currently imports around 73% of her
consumption which will increase to 90% by 2020. We are walking a
dangerous path, when do we panic? In my opinion, the point of panic has
already been reached.

The two largest economies on earth, China and US, have already
incorporated this mother of all commodities as a national security issue. Both
have made overtures more than once, to secure the stability of their
supplies. India on its part has been talking about oil security in the highest
realms of its policies but has done nothing significant about it till now. The
blotting and inefficient bureaucracy has been caught napping about this
issue not once but many times. The recent example of the crisis in Chennai,
the fourth largest metro in India.
The economic and human behavior during the times of oil shortage that was
evident during the Chennai Oil crisis is a classic case study for nations. The
violent mob demanding oil, rising prices, profiteering, increased economic
crime are all played like a theater in the two days during this crisis. The
effect of oil shortage is horrifying.

There is an impending oil crisis looming large on the mankind, because of its
nature as a finite fuel. To fulfill the economic and social desire of its citizens
government across the world will compete for this finite energy resource with
all their strength (diplomatic and military). The case of Iraq is a classic
example of this. The overtures in Iran are another example of this conflict.

India and China on the other hand is been competing economically, to

acquire oil assets around the world as of now. The military conflict is not too
far down the line. Just imagine, what both countries will do next is to protect
the oil that comes from their foreign oil assets to their shores. This will
necessitate build-up of military assets overseas forcing other countries to do
the same. India is been building her military base in Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan like their Chinese counterparts. Chinese are building outposts
in Vietnam, Malaysia and are entering the Indian Ocean through Sri Lanka.
This has made India to increase its military assets in Andaman and to fund
for Vietnam’s military purchases. These initiatives by these two countries are
to protect the oil route of the Straight of Malacca. Again a small start towards
the impending global catastrophe that is nearing.

If the world is sliding toward global conflict over oil, the skids may be pretty
well greased, politically speaking. All this is because the Governments do
not have the political will to prepare for the end of oil. Civilization as we know
will come to an end sometime this century, when the fuel runs out.

I sincerely pray the almighty my prediction is wrong.

Taliban Terror Visits Indians in Kabul
George Nathaniel Curzon, the Viceroy of India in 1899, while creating a new
province called North West Frontier Province forcefully exclaimed in the court of
Queen Elizabeth I, that India’s security lies in Kabul. What he meant at that time
was to save India’s trade with Persia against the Russian interests. This remains true
even today.

Kabul is important to India in more ways than one and that is exactly why Pakistan
is worried about the growing Indian presence in Kabul. Pakistan worries that, if India
leverages its good will with Kabul to have a military presence (exactly what India
would do ultimately) in Afghanistan, the slender chances of Pakistan to put a brave
face to India would be lost as they would completely encircle Pakistan. But India has
much bigger agenda than to encircle Pakistan. And this is why India needs Kabul..

Afghanistan’s main advantage – its geography – has also been its main drawback.
Anyone who controls Afghanistan controls the land routes between the Indian
subcontinent, Iran, and resource rich Central Asia. Traditionally, who ever controlled
Kabul has controlled Indian subcontinent. Whoever entered India to exploit her
riches, entered via Kabul except for the Europeans who sailed into India. History
always repeats. Now India wants to enter the world with its big economic and
energy ambitions and it needs Kabul, desperately. Mr. Yashwant Sinha, the then
Foreign Minister of India during October 2001, remarked to CNN and I quote
“Northern Alliance has to list and it would be given”, so desperate was India to see
Taliban go and have a Government that is not averse to her Interests.

Today, flanked by Iran on the west, Pakistan on the east and the Central Asian
republics of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan in the north (and a very small
stretch of border with China in the northeast), the country's geo-strategic
importance has multiplied manifold. Almost every major power therefore wanted a
slice of the pie and India is no exception.

India needs Afghanistan for transporting its oil from Central Asia. India through its
aid for reconstruction of Afghanistan is helping it to build the 218 Km Delaram-
Zaranj stretch of one of the lengthiest roads of Afghanistan. At Delaram it joins the
Iranian road network to connect the Chabahar Port. This route would be used to
export the oil that it would lay its hands on in Central Asia and will also be used to
import goods into Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan. India has been busy
safeguarding its oil interest in Tajikistan and has helped build a new military airfield
in Farkhor a strategic location close to Afghan border. It has manned the same with
more than 15 MIG 29s of its own and 190 fighter aircrafts (including MiGs, Sukhoi
32s) of Tajikistan almost entirely operated by Indians with hundreds of military
‘advisers’. India has also been training quietly the Tajik military. It also has
established close ties with Kazakhstan and has placed some of its military advisors
there as well.

Having safeguarded its energy source, now it needs to protect the transit route and
hence Afghanistan is necessary. Pakistan has other designs. It connects everything
that represents India to Kashmir dispute and hence as adversary to its interests.
Pakistan also fears that India would militarily and economically over power Pakistan
with its presence in Central Asia and Afghanistan. But India is confronting a bigger
challenge of Chinese presence in Central Asia and growing influence of terrorists in
the northern border of Pakistan.

Given these situations the attack on overseas, especially Afghan and Central Asian
facilities of India was always on the agenda of Pakistan’s ISI. What better way than
to use Taliban? It serves the motive of Taliban as well. It needs to establish itself
again as a premier terror organization in the world. It needs a target that will draw
the attention of the governments around the globe. They know very well that India
will not enter the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan to retaliate. So India has
become a soft target for Taliban and a strategic target for Pakistan. A win-win
situation for both these cronies.

Attacks of similar nature are expected targeted against India in all its assets in
Central Asia and Afghanistan from now on. Taliban and other terrorist organizations
would be used as pawns in this great struggle for energy resources. Taliban has
arrived the Indian shores a lightening the days are not for it to become a thunder.
Expect more, resource wars have started growing in intensity.

Indian (energy) Security Still Lies in Kabul even after 100 years