April 01, 2009| Healthcare

EVENT UPDATE

Fortis Healthcare (FORHEA)

Current Price Rs 68 Potential upside 35% Target Price Rs 92 Time Frame 12-15 months

WHATS CHANGED PRICE TARGET...Unchanged EPS (FY09E)...Unchanged EPS (FY10E)...Unchanged RATING...........................Unchanged

OUTPERFORMER
Rashesh Shah rashes.shah@icicidirect.com

Eyeing controlling stake in Wockhardt

Fortis Healthcare is eyeing a 74% stake in Wockhardt Hospitals. The company has emerged as the frontrunner to acquire a stake in Wockhardt Hospitals for Rs 750 crore. This deal values Wockhardt Hospitals at just over Rs 1000 crore, which is quite cheap compared to its IPO valuation of over Rs 3200 crore a year back. If the deal materialises, Fortis is likely to invest Rs 400 crore in the first phase for a 40% stake and will raise its stake to 74% subsequently.

Objectives of this acquisition

We believe the following reasons motivated Fortis Healthcare to go ahead with this possible acquisition: Strategic expansion in western and southern region Impressive financials of target company To strengthen market position and brand equity To make its proposed rights issue more attractive for investors To tap the opportunity of cheaper valuations

Valuations
If the deal goes through it would be beneficial for both companies especially Fortis Healthcare based on the reasons mentioned above. Since the deal is yet to be finalised and confirmed by the management, we continue to maintain our forecasted financials and target price of Rs 92, which we arrived at by using the DCF methodology. At this target price, the stock is available at 86.1x and 33x its FY09E and FY10E estimates, respectively. Though the stock looks expensive on a P/E multiple basis, considering the companys financial turnaround, the managements aggressive expansion strategy, low debt to equity and enough liquidity, the stock commands a premium compared to its peer companies. Exhibit 1: Financial Summary
Net Sales Operating Profit Net Profit Operating Margins Net Profit Margins Diluted EPS(Rs.) RoCE RoE FY07 512.4 48.5 -98.1 9.5% NA -5.4 -4.7% -26.6% FY08 507.1 20.6 -55.5 4.1% NA -2.4 -1.8% -4.9% FY09E 630.8 89.7 24.1 14.2% 3.8% 1.1 3.1% 2.4% FY10E 914.6 122.2 63.0 13.4% 6.9% 2.8 5.3% 6.0%

Note: Not adjusted for proposed stake buy Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICIdirect | Equity Research

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Objectives of acquisition: Strategic expansion in western and southern region Fortis currently has a strong presence in north India with over 60% of its total bed capacity based in this region. Its two major upcoming projects are also located in Delhi and Gurgaon. These are expected to get launched by the end of FY10 and FY11, respectively. In contrast, Wockhardt only has a presence in the west and south region with over 70% of its total revenues coming in from hospitals located in Bangalore and Mumbai. Through this deal, Fortis would be able to tap the markets in the west and south region. Fortis is also currently working on its new hospital project at Vashi with a total bed capacity of 150. This is expected to get completed by Q2FY10 Exhibit 2: Existing locations: Fortis Healthcare
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Punjab Bangalore Chennai Mumbai Mauritius Raipur Jaipur NCR Kota

Exhibit 3: Existing locations: Wockhardt Hospital

600

400

200

0 Hyderabad Bhavnagar Nagpur Bangalore Mumbai Kolkatta Rajkot Nashik Surat

Total Beds

Total Beds

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Impressive financial records of target company Wockhardt Hospitals has maintained higher operating margins of over 16% in the past three years compared to the operating margins of Fortis Healthcare, currently at 12%. However, on account of its higher debt equity ratio of about 5.2:1, Wockhardts net profit margins have remained in the range of 5-7%. Through this stake buy, Fortis would be able to improve its net profit margins and, thereby, its return ratios, going forward Exhibit 4: Financial summary
Net Sales Operating Profit Net Profit Operating Margin Net Profit Margin Outstanding Shares Diluted EPS (Rs) RoCE RoE FY05 129.1 21.64 1.41 16.80% 1.10% 2.5 0.56 17.0% 5.1% FY06 158.68 28.25 13.93 17.80% 8.80% 5 2.79 15.7% 33.2% FY07 236.48 39.28 15.59 16.60% 6.60% 5 3.12 11.4% 27.1% 9M FY08 259.48 53.96 7.31 20.80% 2.80% 7.43 0.98 10.7% 10.4%

Source: RHP, ICICIdirect.com Research

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To strengthen market position and brand equity Fortis has aggressively used the acquisition route to strengthen its position in the market and its brand value, which is quite visible from the past data. The acquisition of Escorts (EHIRC) in 2005 and International Hospitals (IHL) in 2006 has helped the company to become a stronger player in cardiology and other specialities in North India. In September 2007, the company also acquired a controlling stake in the Chennai-based Malar Hospital. This strategy works for the company when expansion is desired at a faster pace. Also, a running hospital would start generating revenue from the day of the acquisition To make its proposed rights issue more attractive for investors The Fortis management has approved a Rs 1,000-crore rights issue and warrant issue for an unspecified amount in December 2008 for its expansions. Due to huge equity dilution post rights issue, we expect some pressure on its EPS for FY10E. However, with the utilisation of the rights issue proceeds in this proposed acquisition instead of utilising the whole rights issue proceeds in greenfield projects, Fortis would certainly be able to improve its profitability and EPS since this acquisition would start generating returns from the day of acquisitions. This, in turn, would make its forthcoming rights issue more attractive to investors. It is to be noted that the hospital industry, being capital intensive, requires nearly two to three years in setting up a hospital under greenfield expansions To tap the opportunity of attractive valuations The ongoing slowdown has thrown up an opportunity for cash rich companies looking for expansions at fair valuations. This is clearly evident from the fact that Wockhardt is currently being valued at Rs 1,000 crore (i.e. EV of Rs 72 lakh per bed) from its previous IPO valuation of over Rs 3,200 crore (i.e. EV of Rs 1.8 crore per bed), representing a reduction of over 60% in its valuations. After Ranbaxys stake sale, the promoters of the company are now fuelled with ample liquidity. Also, the promoters hold nearly 68% stake in the company. At the same time, the Wockhardt group needs funds to repay its substantial debt, which is more than 2.5 times its total equity. Hence, if the deal goes through it would be financially beneficial for both Wockhardt and Fortis. The proposed deal would also be strategically beneficial for Fortis

Concerns: Valuation of Wockhardt still higher The deal values Wockhardt Hospitals at Rs 1000 crore. Since the promoters are selling their stake in the company, we are assuming that the debt burden of Wockhardt, which is at around Rs.435 crore (as per its DRHP), would be passed on to Fortis. Hence, the enterprise value comes to Rs 1435 crore. On a per bed basis it works out to Rs 72 lakh, which we feel is 16% higher compared to the current market EV per bed of Rs 62-65 lakh. However, considering the abovementioned key positives, the valuation is still justified even with the premium of over 15%

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Outperformer, Performer, Hold and Underperformer. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Outperformer (OP): 20% or more; Performer (P): Between 10% and 20%; Hold (H): +10% return; Underperformer (U): -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, Gr. Floor, Mafatlal House, 163, HT Parekh Marg, Backbay Reclamation Churchgate, Mumbai 400 020 research@icicidirect.com ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Rashesh Shah B.Com, CA research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.

pankaj.pandey@icicidirect.com

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