ISLAMABAD: Pakistan s government has won temporary respite in its bid to cling ont o office but early polls

are inevitable as the army and judiciary plot to bring down the unpopular president, analysts say. The power struggle between Asif Ali Zardari s government on the one hand and the c ourts and military on the other is by any standards toxic even in a nuclear-arme d country as perennially on the brink of crisis as Pakistan. No elected government in the history of the country has survived a full term in office and almost from inception the daggers have been drawn for the Pakistan Pe oples Party administration. Yet Zardari has survived nearly four years through nous and cunning. Polls in 20 12 may satisfy an army desperate to see the back of Zardari but his prime minist er has already become the longest-serving civilian premier in Pakistan. 2012 is election year, says political analyst and author Imtiaz Gul, regardless of whether Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani survives contempt proceedings initiat ed by the Supreme Court. All political parties want early elections, said Gul.

There is economic crisis and social instability and the government will therefore see early elections as the only way out. The Supreme Court judges demanding that Zardari be reinvestigated for graft in S witzerland could ultimately decide to convict Gilani of contempt, sentence him t o jail and disqualify him as well as Zardari from office. The president is also under pressure from a judicial investigation into a secret ive memo seeking to overhaul the military leadership after the army was humiliat ed by a covert American operation on May 2 that killed Osama bin Laden. But the court s decision to adjourn until February 1 has bought the government at least two weeks reprieve after Gilani was summoned to face contempt charges on Th ursday. Opinion is divided on whether the Supreme Court was victorious in forcing the go vernment to accept its authority or whether the prime minister emerged triumphan t by standing his ground and refusing to apologise. Gilani faced down a demand to ask Swiss authorities to reopen corruption cases a gainst Zardari by insisting that the president has full immunity, but the prime minister has gone out of his way to show deference to the courts. We respect the judiciary and their mandate and we will respect whatever courts de cide in this regard, Gilani told reporters on Friday. The crisis has been averted t Dawn. for now, said Pakistan s well-regarded English broadshee

Both Zardari and Gilani have kept their nerve, Ayaz Amir, a lawmaker for the oppos ition Pakistan Muslim League-N party, wrote in The News, before comparing Zardar i favourably to much-lauded prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Zardari is a far better politician than him. Bhutto had a knack for making enemies . Zardari has a knack for making friends and keeping them on his side, Amir wrote . Analysts are divided on whether the court will accept the government s position on

immunity, force its hand or whether a compromise can be reached in the wording of a letter written to the Swiss authorities. Most believe a solution can be found, saving Gilani the ignominy of being convic ted for contempt. Pakistan has been under military dictatorships for about half its history since independence in 1947, with civilian leaders thrown out in three coups. But while the military angry with government ineptitude and still reeling from t he Bin Laden fiasco appears to have decided Zardari has to go, observers say the re is no suggestion of another coup in the offing. Instead the powerful military seems content to engineer elections by building pr essure on the government from behind the scenes and watch the rise of political contender Imran Khan, rumoured to be the army s choice. What remains to be seen is how long the government can survive, under what circu mstances and when it will be finally forced to call elections which are not due until the beginning of 2013. Few believe the Supreme Court, government or military want elections before Apri l s expected completion of electoral roll reform that offers the prospect of signi ficantly cleaner polls. Pakistan s blazing summer starts early and elections have never been held during t he hottest months, making September or October the most likely date. Analyst AH Nayyar said the government was determined to survive until Senate ele ctions in March in a bid to retain its majority and hold out for as long as poss ible. But regardless of elections, there is little doubt that the current government i s paralysed, offering nothing in the face of crippling energy cuts and inflation , not to mention the damaged US alliance in Afghanistan. We are already in the middle of a coup as the government is not being allowed to function, said military analyst Ayesha Siddiqa. I call it a judiciary-cum-media coup.