FR3208: Arts and Antiques

What are the factors that affect the development of an art market? The Indian Art Market

Piers Bowley Rikke Bentzon Luke Demetriades Michael Olabode Mary Sathananthan Francesca Satturley Charles Smith Hanan Taifour
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CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................... 3

TASTE, POWER AND RELIGION ............................................................................................................. 3

SOCIAL CONDITIONS ................................................................................................................................ 4

GOVERNMENT AND TAX ......................................................................................................................... 5

SUPPLY AND DEMAND............................................................................................................................. 6

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ......................................................................................................................... 8

POLITICAL CONDITIONS ....................................................................................................................... 10

CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................................ 11

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................ 12

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INTRODUCTION
In recent years, India has experienced a fast growing economy and as a result, its art market has witnessed a growing trend. With this being said, the potential of this market is tremendous but it also has its flaws. This paper therefore analyses the various factors influencing the Indian Art Market s development.

To begin with, aspects surrounding religion, taste and power are discussed; which follows onto social conditions in India. Thereafter, the Indian government and tax issues are analysed. Subsequently, factors surrounding supply and demand, the Indian economy and political matters are discussed. Ultimately, the numerous factors examined will be concluded upon in order to determine the development of India s art market.

TASTE, POWER AND RELIGION

T A STE
Taste is influenced by many stakeholders in an art market including collectors, critics and dealers. The degree to which these stakeholders influence taste plays an important role in art market development. The majority of collectors for modern and contemporary Indian art are Indian or of Indian origin, mainly due to the lack of exposure of Indian art to people outside the country (Stancati, 2011). Additionally, many new buyers are young and have differing tastes to their older counterparts. Moreover, Charles Saatchi (an art collector and owner of the Saatchi Gallery) has made many investments in Indian art. He bought a painting by India s most highly rated young artist, Subogh Gupta, for triple estimate and record $646,000 (Gleadell, 2010). Saatchi has the power to influence the taste of many and thus help with the market s development.

Dealers largely influence taste; when consumers buy art, they are essentially buying into the taste of the dealer. India has a number of Alpha dealers including Bodhi Art Gallery and Vedehra Art Gallery. This is significant because once Alpha galleries have selected their art, the risk of it bombing is lessened (Robertson, 2005). Thus, they influence which art is successful.

Critics form part of an art market by acting as a communications link between the artist and the public (Robertson, 2005). In this way, they have ability to influence public taste. India has many

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art critics including Geeta Kapar, critic and curator, who is seen as the voice of authority . Artists believe to be accepted and written about by her is having made it (Indian Express, 2002).

P OWER
The power of various stakeholders in an art market impacts their ability to influence tastes. In the Indian art market, the power of Arun Vadehra (director of leading Delhi gallery, Vedehra Art) and Christie s plays a significant role. How this works is through networks. Vadehra is a large Alpha dealer holding connections with Ms Ganieve Grewal (Christie s Representative in India). As Christie s is worldwide this provides excellent international exposure. Additionally, Vadehra and Christie s are connected to Osborne Samuel, a major Alpha dealer based in London specialising in Indian Moderns. They are also connected to the Opera Gallery owning many galleries worldwide. These international galleries export work globally. The result is

oligopolistic exposure. Essentially, the process starts from connections; two people in two different companies are connected, and in turn, they expand operations through intermediaries.

R ELIGION
Religion forms an important part of the Indian art market. Much of India s population have strong beliefs and many Indian artists works have been influenced by religion, namely Hinduism. The importance of religion to India was displayed when a major Indian Artist, Maqbool Fida Husain, offended the Hindus who argued his paintings depicted Hindu goddesses in the nude (Lakshmi, 2009). This was such a big issue that Husain s works were taken off display in the 3rd India Art Summit because of threats by individuals and groups that believe Husain is anti-Hindu and anti-national (Karan, 2011). It has been stated he is the captain of Indian Art and without him the Summit is incomplete demonstrating the impact religion can have on supply, and the content of art works (Vadhera, 2011).

SOCIAL CONDITIONS
Social conditions, namely education, current trends, art initiatives and culture have had an impact on Indian art.

In India, education spending is 12.7% of government spending. A relatively small proportion is spent on arts education; however this is increasing (visualeconomics, 2010). There are currently 31 art museums and galleries in India. Art initiatives are increasing. For example, The KochiMuziris Biennale, an event featuring 60 international artists is to be held in 2012, raising the 4|Page

Indian art market profile globally (dawn.com, 2011). The Indian Art Summit, India's Modern & Contemporary Art Fair, saw 128,000 visitors in 2010 in comparison to 40,000 in 2009. People came from 67 cities worldwide demonstrating the growing international appeal of Indian art (Elliot, 2011). ART in India, India s premier art magazine has promoted various art forms since 1999 (ART India, 2011). This combined with an increase in arts magazines tailored to different audiences helped make art education more accessible. Information technology has additionally aided this. It is believed art is addictive, the more learnt about art the more its consumption is desired. Thus, increased education in this sector has contributed to its growth (Robertson, 2005).

As India s economy grows, particularly in sectors such as IT and banking so does the proportion of people who can afford art as an investment. Many new buyers are of a young middle class generation and tend to be open to the daring trends of contemporary art (Maneker, 2011). Not only are a younger generation attracted to Indian art, but there is also more international appeal. Top Indian artists such as T.V Santhosh and Atil Dodiya employ techniques and explore themes appealing to global western audiences. In the past ten years contemporary Indian art has changed greatly; International galleries now operate out of Mumbai, Delhi, Berlin, London and New York while auction houses offer Indian art within the context of western contemporary art sales, helping internationalize the collector-base (Green, 2010).

Due to financial market volatility, high net worth investors see art as an asset with tangible long-term value (World Wealth Report 2010). The report states investors in India, China and the Middle East have become attracted to art as a hedge against inflation risk (Hamdan, 2011). The growing Indian art demand from these regions can also be attributed to museums and events educating the public about this art form, including satellites of the Louvre, the Guggenheim and the Sheikh Zayed National Museum.

Confidence in long-term sustained growth is the dominant sentiment in the contemporary Indian art market. Buying is from India, UK, Europe, the UAE and US with corporations contributing to sales (Green, 2010).

GOVERNMENT AND TAX

Surprisingly, for a nation with rich artistic traditions and celebrated contemporary artists, bringing art and antiques into India is as difficult as taking them out. This stems from an "irrational tax structure crippling the art industry due to heavy import and value-added taxes. 5|Page

While many non-resident Indians have a good collection of artwork, they avoid bringing these into India due to prevailing policies. This is the reason why all good artworks are going to America, where there is no entry tax (India News Post, 2009). Taxation can affect the development of an art market as it imposes a financial burden upon buyers and sellers. This in itself can enforce a barrier to art markets as collectors and traders would have a predisposition to operate in favourable tax conditions including America and Hong Kong.

Recently, India s finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, has made works of art and antiquities exempt from customs duties when imported for exhibition in a public museum or national institution (Financial Times, 2011). This includes art work for display in private galleries or similar premises open to the general public. The government s move to abolish tax laws will Internationalise art in India (Neha Kirpal, director of the Indian Art Summit). The cultural Minister, Kumari Selja, also hailed the move believing the concession by the government will encourage more and more private, corporate and philanthropic organisations and individuals, to promote and popularise Indian art , allowing the sector to flourish (Art Market Monitor, 2011). The scheme will make it easier to organise exhibitions of foreign art work which will attract a global audience towards India. Moreover, as exhibitions are on a reciprocal basis this would enable artwork from India to be taken outside the country too. It will also allow Indian collectors to locate heritage works of Indian art and antiquities in foreign countries and bring them back home.

Vadehra believes India has tremendous room to expand and the government is realising the importance of committing to cultivating the infrastructure for arts in the country, and is actively fostering collaborations with private institutions. Additionally, in June 2011, for the first time in the 115-year history of the prestigious Venice Biennale, there will be a pavilion dedicated to Indian art, curated by art critic and curator Ranjit Hoskote.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

C ONDITION OF A RT
Today s emphasis on condition is relatively new, and has therefore arguably been one of the major contributing factors to the perceived drop in supply over the last two decades. Condition is a prevailing factor in the balance of supply and demand throughout the field: both restricting the supply of good quality works and reducing the demand for damaged pieces. India s art market may be on the upswing, nonetheless the infrastructure that supports conservation and restoration has yet to find a solid footing. Despite the country s growing appetite for 6|Page

indigenously produced art, there are only a handful of recognised art conservation experts. Today, there is more demand for restoration, because there is more awareness. India s extreme humidity, rudimentary framing and poor storage, make works of art especially vulnerable to damage like pigment deterioration.

S CHO LAR L Y O PINION

Scholarly opinion and expertise in determining the accuracy of attributions has provoked complications, playing a key role in defining the nature of the market. The difficulty of

attribution is illuminated by the fact that scientific analysis can only assist the process; the final evaluation resides on the basis of aficionados in the market. Over the late twentieth century, the number of expert scholars has increased leading to greater examination of views and ultimately better accuracy of judgment. It is the reliability of such judgments that is essential for the accomplishment of the market. The ability to determine the authenticity of a piece with greater accuracy restricts market supply. However, a piece that is authenticated fuels greater demand and increases price. The need for skilled experts is essential as fakes trouble India s booming art market. During a recent visit to New Delhi, 57 year old artist Arpana Caur identified two paintings copied from her Nanak series depicting the life of the founder of the Sikh religion. Her investigation into the fraud revealed her former apprentice and framer was running a racket employing art students to copy her works, fetching over $44,000 at international shows and auctions, and sell them to un-suspecting galleries. "It's not just the paintings that were copied. My signature and certificate of authentication were being forged too," says Caur. "The problem of fake art is not new in the global art world, but in India this cancer has spread beyond your imagination."

A U CTION H OUS ES
The international nature of today s art market, and ease of moving objects to the most attractive sale location, is seen in the dominance of those national art markets where the international auction houses operate, and the converse weakness of those where they do not (Robertson, 2005). Until 1997, auctions were held occasionally by the two leaders in the market, Sotheby s and Christie s. However, today India has its own exclusive auction house; Osian. Osian plans to bring an Indian auction house to the international art market and with many international art houses as clients and several Indian artists under promotion, Osian is heading in the right direction. This will inevitably be a defining moment for the Indian art market as demand will be fuelled by investors world-wide. In addition, online Indian auction houses are already in existence such as Saffronart.

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ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
GDP

From 2004 to 2010 India s average quarterly GDP growth was 8.4% reaching an historical high of 10.10% in 2006 (Trading Economics, 2011[1]). Growth was fuelled by many factors including; developments in stock markets, technology, media and real-time information. Liberalisation of government regulations in foreign trade in the 1990s has contributed; restrictions on private companies were lifted, and new areas opened to private capital (IndianChild, 2000). Additionally, India s low costs and English-speaking workforce has attracted foreign investment by MNE s. Economic growth has resulted in higher incomes per capita and increased spending in the art market. In a recent report, Fortune magazine has revealed the Indian art market has risen over 485% in the last 10 years, being the fourth largest world-wide (Art Business On-line, 2010).

WEA LTH DISTRIBUTION

There is high income inequality in India. While the top 10% of India s population enjoys 53% of the country s income, the lowest 10% suffers with 0.2% (BBC News, 2007). The super-rich have more money than in any other Asian nation, and these form a strong component of Indian art demand. Growing GDP and incomes have benefited the Indian population, particularly the middle-class. It is this rise in income per capita and wider availability of art of various prices making art more accessible, aiding its growth (Sydell, 2007). It should however be considered the income distribution will remain wide, and the poor will remain unable to afford art. Additionally inflation has increased on average by 1.63% annually from 2008-2011, reducing disposable income (Trading Economics, 2011 [3]).

THE REC ESSION

The global financial crisis reduced India s GDP from 9% to 7.4% in 2009-10. However, the revival of the economy coupled with good monsoon in 2011 is expected to break the barrier of double digit growth in 2011-12 (Mukherjee, 2010). India recovered well from the recession. It cut interest rates, from 6% in 2008 to 3.25% in 2009, offered tax breaks and increased fiscal spending, and did so on smaller scale than China (Trading Economics, 2011 [2]).

India was less exposed to the international economy; China's exports represented 35% of GDP compared with 24% for India in 2008. India's government had less necessity to replace lost exports. India s domestic economy provided cushion from external shocks; private domestic consumption accounted for 57% of GDP and India s confident consumer didn't let the economy down, a contributing factor to growing GDP and art market spending (ChinaDaily, 2011). Since 8|Page

2010 the Indian rupee has on average decreased in value against international currencies, making exports less expensive, and encouraging Indian art investment (Exchange-rates, 2011). India is however not immune to risks. The government has to contend with a yawning budget deficit, and 2009 weak monsoon rains undercut agricultural production and reduced rural consumer spending (ChinaDaily, 2011). Rapid consumer growth is however expected to

continue in the future, fuelling art market development. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, when speaking of India s plodding pace of policymaking said "slow and steady will win the race." The 2008 recession appears to prove him right (ChinaDaily, 2011).

INTERNATION AL G ROWT H

Dubai is one of the fastest growing cities worldwide, with per capita income growing by 9% in the United Arab Emirates in 2006. Hong Kong is seeing substantial growth; in 2009 it was the fourth most affluent Nation in terms of GDP per capita (Richestpersons.net, 2011). London, the world's largest financial centre has the largest city GDP in Europe. Alongside New York with the largest stock market worldwide and with a 32.8% 10 year income per capita growth rate, the number of high earning individuals is rapidly growing, largely contributing to the increasing demand for Indian art across these four locations (Business Insider, 2010).

The Indian art market has however approached a crossroad. According to Neha Kirpal (2011) of India Art Summit, a majority of Indian art buyers are of Indian origin. Though this doesn t seem to present an immediate warning, the real question is, can this market continue to grow if it stays attached to its geographical heritage or will the potential of this market only be realised through further international reach. India s art base isn t the most internationally recognised yet, continues Kirpal (2011), indicating not all overseas benefits are being taken advantage of. This is due to not yet taking full advantage of art fairs and worldwide showcases, suggesting the market can rapidly ascend to maturity when they are exposed to further international circles over time. We are slowly going global (Kirpal 2011), highlighting the inevitable direction for India s intercontinental ascendancy.

S PE CU LATION
Data from ArtTactic (2010) showed the average price at auction for contemporary Indian art declined by 75% between September 2008 and 2009, but regained strength up 140% between March 2006 and September 2008. One problem of the Indian art market, is that it s mainly driven by speculation (Robertson, 2011), which could result in distorted valuations, monetary bubbles and gold rush mentality. If this trend continues, it may be difficult to calculate present

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sales volume or predict future ones, thus producing a superfluous pricing issue, potentially hindering India s art market development.

POLITICAL CONDITIONS
India is one of the largest democracies in the world, possessing high political stability. It suffered political instability prior to 1999 due to the inability of any party to win an absolute majority in Parliament. However, since 1999 general elections, when the National Democratic Alliance obtained a majority vote, stability has returned. Previous political volatility did not change India s economic course but delayed actions regarding the economy, reducing the economic growth rate and thus art investment (MaloMaal, 2011).

India has six national parties with ideologies ranging from free market to communism. India s political divide is not one of policy, but essentially personalities. Economic liberalization, which is essentially what foreign investors are interested in, is seen as crucial by all parties, including the Communist Party of India, Marxist. Therefore, political instability poses little risk to foreign investors as no policy introduced by a previous government has been reversed by a successive government. This lack of risk has been a large contributor to Indian art market development (MaloMaal, 2011). Additionally, the political stability of various cities such as London, Dubai, Hong Kong and New York has played a part in encouraging the leading auction house for Modern and Contemporary Indian art, Christie s to hold auction sales at these locations, encouraging demand for Indian art (Christie s, 2011)

With regards to terrorism, excluding few areas in the north, activity is practically non-existent. The Mumbai terrorist attack is however an exception. The attack occurred late 2008, when India s art market began to anticipate the recent economic crisis. The effects of the crisis were seen at a Sotheby s Hong Kong auction in October (2008), when a painting by Indian artist Subodh Gupta failed to sell. However, six months earlier another piece of his had sold for over $1m. Consequently to the terrorist attack, demand substantially declined, though this closely correlates to or was exacerbated by recession. Many galleries in response exercised damage limitation, for example Bodhi Art is rumoured to have offered 40 % reductions to clients. Some however say this economic correction was needed in the booming Indian market (Harris, 2008). Since this time however, India has remained stable politically, raising consumer confidence and thus investment in Indian art.

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CONCLUSION
A number of factors have influenced the Indian art market development, and it appears these are interlinked. Tastes are influenced by key art market stakeholders, and the extent to which these are influential depends on the relative power of each party. Supply and demand of Indian Art is ultimately what enables the market s development. This depends on factors such as condition, attribution and auction house presence, however all factors considered above have contributing impact. Increased arts education and art initiatives increased the appeal of art. Its adaption to a wider audience, through the tailoring of art techniques to a global western audience, and the rise in contemporary art has captured the eye of a younger generation. Rising GDP, wealth and political stability are enhancing demand. There are factors including wide income distributions, inflation and speculation leading to distorted valuations having a negative impact. However, the influence of these seems to be largely outweighed by positive factors contributing to the market s development. Government policies on trade have reduced

incentive for international dealings, however changes in tax structure and plans to revive the Indian arts infrastructure will help to further internationalise Indian art.

One key factor brought to attention through this essay is the impact of international growth. India has been relatively underexposed to the international economy and was thus less hit by recession. However, it appears opening up to international growth will be key to the expansion of the Indian art market. Ultimately, all factors analysed seem to be positively impacting the markets international and domestic growth, indicating the Indian art market will continue to develop substantially.

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