Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FY 2010 Results and Comments: Investor & Analyst Update
FY 2010 Results and Comments: Investor & Analyst Update
FY 2010 Results and Comments: Investor & Analyst Update
Disclaimer
The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu plc. Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
1.
2. 3.
Introduction
Financial summary Focus: reserves update
4.
5. 6.
Coal market
Coal divisions Power division
Appendices
1.
Introduction
Key events
EXTERNAL EVENTS
Queensland flooding
October
November
December
January
February
CORPORATE
EVENTS
23 Feb Banpu FY10 results, dividend and Reserves & Resources update
WESTERN OPERATIONS
Zhengding (100%)
48 MW, 180 tph Zouping (70%) 100 MW, 430 tph Hebi (40%) 1.5 Mtpa
Daning (56%)
4 Mtpa
Inglenook (95%)
Charbon* (95%)
Awaba
(100%) 0.9 Mtpa
Airly (100%)
Hong Sa (40%)
(COD 2015)
0.1 Mtpa
Myuna
(100%) 2.1Mtpa
Mandalong
(100%) 5.3 Mtpa
Mannering
(100%)
Springvale (100%)
1.6 Mtpa
Truebaindo (65%)
5.5 Mtpa Bharinto (64%)
(COD 2H11)
Indominco (65%)
14.3 Mtpa
Clarence* (85%)
*Charbon and Clarence 2.4Mtpa
Kitadin-Embalut (65%)
1.2 Mtpa 0.9 Mtpa
AUSTRALIA
Coal mine Coal mine project Coal-fired power Coal-fired power project
Centennial (100%)
14.3 Mtpa
Note: All figures are for 2010 output or capacity, figures for Centennial are equity basis
Banpu in 2010
4Q10
Bt. million Bt. million
FY 2010
COAL SALES COAL SALES
21,507
Power
9.34 Mt
CEY
65,285
4,865
25.9 Mt
CEY
1,392
3.57 5.77
Up 4.3 Mt
85% Q-Q
3.57
Up 4.8 Mt
23% Y-Y
ITM
22.3
ITM
Coal
20,115
60,420
24,728* 18,575
6,934 3,561
Power
4,923* 3,101
-93 3,194 3,818 15,014 1,106 Net income Y-Y 200% Revenue EBIT
17,794
Coal
Revenue
EBIT
Net income
Y-Y
23%
Y-Y
-1%
Q-Q 57%
Q-Q -35%
Q-Q
-63%
Y-Y 13%
Y-Y -14%
Y-Y 74%
Coal
Power
2.
Financial summary
Sales revenues
Bt. million
USD 1,685 m USD 1,515 m USD 2,058 m
57,865
+15% Y-Y 4,788
+13% Y-Y
65,285
4,865 Power +2% Y - Y
50,530
Power 4,460
53,077
46,070
Coal
2008
Coal Power
2009
2010
Note: Only Q4 figures for Centennial are consolidated in the 2010 revenues figures for coal, USD exchange rate is the average exchange rate of the corresponding period, Revenue from other is included in Coal.
34,268
31,978 25,817
Coal sales
16,361
15,489
14,838
1,488
1,150 41% 41% 33%
2,735
32%
2008
2009
2010
2008
2009
2010
2008
2009
2010
Indominco
Trubaindo
Jorong
Kitadin
Centennial
10
23,785
-8% +27% Y on Y
21,966
Y on Y
2,848 Power
-23% Y-Y
18,772
4,830 3,962 Power
-18% Y-Y +74% Y on Y
Power 4,052
+54% Y on Y
14,229
9,228
18,955
Coal 14,720
18,004 Coal
-5% Y-Y
2,817
10,444
6,410
2008
2009
2010
2008
2009
2010
Coal
Power
11
Balance sheet
Debt structure
0.66 0.36
40%
25% 12%
51%
Fixed 11%
0.34 0.14
0.16
26% 14%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
12
Dividend payments
5
(Special)
5
(Special)
16 12 16
5.5
7.5
7.5
8.5
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
13
3.
14
+11 Mt
+34 Mt
+69 Mt
+20 Mt
+47 Mt
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-61 Mt**
+97 Mt
Daning (+29) Gaohe (+68)
+308 Mt -30 Mt
Centennial
15
672
+308
308
Australia Coal
366
-19 -9
China Coal
394
+56 146 146
China Coal
-30
149
217
248
218
Indonesia Coal
End 2009
Sales depletion
Pre-transaction basis
Acquisition of CEY
End 2010
16
AUSTRALIA
INDONESIA
CHINA
Reserves Reserves 308 Reserves 218 146 298 Resources 1,064 Resources
Resources 1,813
17
Trubaindo
Kitadin
109Mt
Embalut TDMY
26 Mt - 1 Mt
10
25 Mt
10
-5 Mt
End 2009
Coal sales
End 2010
East Block
98 Mt -4 Mt
+20 Mt
114Mt
Bharinto (project)
End 2009
46 Mt
46 Mt
Jorong
8 Mt
-1 Mt
Coal sales
7 Mt
End 2010
End 2009
End 2009
End 2009
End 2010
Note: All figures are as at December 31st, 2010, Resources are Measured & Indicated, Reserves are Proved & Probable *This excludes the termination of Indominco underground project
18
4. Coal market
19
Impact on Indonesia is
most significant:
If unemployment concern
defers interest rate rises, there is potential for demand lift in 2H 2011
Sources: Country Forecast February and March 2011 from The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2011
20
150 140 130 120 US$ / Ton 110 100 90 80 70 60 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10
21
Thermal coal market analysis 2011 update Thermal coal market analysis 1Q 4Q 2010 update
RUSSIA Minor recovery due weakened Ruble but rising domestic demand and rail limits CHINA Q1 Import rate eased due to slow return of industry, warm winter in the south and import price relatively high
EAST ASIA Japan minor recovery, but steel mills strong still; Korea andTaiwan strong recovery
USA Thermal supply remains very low, some LCV to Korea / China COLOMBIA Rains lower production. Export to Asia stop
INDONESIA Rain in 1Q , but not excessive AUSTRALIA Floods hamper Queensland output, loss approx. 4 - 5 Mt thermal
SOUTH AFRICA Continuing problems in rail eases short term. Diverted shipments to N.Asia from China distort expectation
22
China thermal coal market review China thermal coal market review
China domestic coal prices
End Dec10 21 Feb11 (RMB) 837 775 493
Datong super mixed coal (6,000 kcal/kg) Shanxi super mixed coal (5,500 kcal/kg) Common mixed coal (4,000 kcal/kg)
Datong Shanxi Common
85-120
93
Net import c. 92 Mt
Net import 79 Mt
RMB
1,200
1025 1,000 800 600 734 648 698 635
58
762 714
845
788
36
495
457 440
400 200 0
14
18
14
7 - 14
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q101Q11e
2008
2009 Import
2010 Export
2011 Outlook
5. Coal divisions
24
5. Coal divisions
(a)
Indonesia coal
25
Coal output :
4Q10 : 5.8 Mt 2010 : 22 Mt
INDOMINCO
14.3 Mt
Bunyut Port
TRUBAINDO
Project updates:
Trubaindo: hauling road construction to
5.5 Mt
Central Kalimantan
Samarinda Balikpapan
BHARINTO
(Commissioning in 2H2011)
KITADINEMBALUT
1.2 Mt
Palangkaraya
South Kalimantan
finished 1Q11
Tandung Mayang: first output by 2H11
Banjarmasin
JORONG
POWER Operation Project
0.9 Mt
Jorong Port
COAL
Operation Project
26
W Block E Block
11.0 11.4 11.4 10.5 6.9 6.9 6.9 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.8
11.3
11.3
11.3 11.3
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 3.6Mt 3.6Mt 3.5Mt 3.6Mt 3.5Mt
0.9 2.7
1.1
1.0 2.5
1.3
1.4
1.5Mt
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.6Mt 1.1Mt
1.3Mt
1.4Mt
0.4Mt 0.3Mt
0.2Mt
0.3Mt
Indominco-Bontang CV: 6050 - 6500 kcal/kg Higher SR due to mining in alternate area
Jorong CV: 5300 kcal/kg Expect flat production due to limited reserves
Kitadin - Embalut
CV: 5750 kcal/kg Start mining in difficult area so variation in SR is expected
Note: output figures are saleable coal
West block
27
Banpu average selling prices Banpu average selling prices in 4Q10 in 3Q10
USD/tonne
Product mixes with some lower CV impacted 2010 prices ASP 4Q10 vs. 3Q10 down 1% due to product mix
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
ASP 4Q10 $77.25t (-1% QoQ) ASP 2010 $74.65t (+4% YoY)
28
Price Status
100%
11%
89%
Uncontracted
Unpriced
As of 22Feb11
29
Coal sales by sales by destination 2010 (22.3 Mt) Indonesia coal geographic destination (ITM and Thai)
ITALY
1.3 Mt 2011 1.8Mt
CHINA
2011 5.1Mt
HONG KONG
1.3 Mt
2011
S.KOREA
2.3Mt
2011
JAPAN
4.2Mt
2011 4.5Mt
1.2Mt
1.8Mt
1.4Mt
2.6Mt 0Mt
2008 2009 2010
4.0Mt
0.6Mt
2008
2009
2010
1.7Mt
2008 2009 2010
INDIA
2.2Mt 2011
2008
2009
2010
0.9Mt
TAIWAN
2008 2009 2010
2011
0.2Mt
2008 2009 2010
2.6Mt 1.9Mt
2.5Mt
OTHERS*
1.4Mt 0.9Mt
1.1Mt
THAILAND
2.7Mt 2.1Mt
2011
INDONESIA
2011
PHILIPPINES
2011
2008
2009
2010
1.6Mt
2008 2009 2010
1.8Mt
1.1Mt
30
5. Coal divisions
31
Australia coal
WESTERN OPERATIONS Charbon Inglenook NORTHERN OPERATIONS
Newstan Lochiel
(development project)
Awaba
Airly
Neubecks Ivanhoe North Angus Place Springvale Clarence Mandalong
Myuna Mannering
Open-cut mine Underground mine Project Power station Port Road Rail
Note: Centennial equity ownership 100% unless shown in brackets
Western Operations
Airly (100%) Angus Place (50%) Charbon (95%) 1.6
13.8
6.0
849
5.9 Export 1.5
4.7
Clarence (85%)
Springvale (50%)
4Q10 2010 4Q10 2010
Domestic
Northern Operations
Awaba (100%) Newstan (100%) Mandalong (100%) Mannering (100%) Myuna (100%)
4Q10
8.3
7.9
3.6
219
9.1
1.2
2.4 2.1
2.4
2010
4Q10
2010
4Q10
2010
4Q10
2010
33
5. Coal divisions
34
718 622
499
PRODUCTION COST PRODUCTION COST
286
466
505 382
487
512
0.61Mt 0.32Mt
N.A.
4Q09 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11e 4Q09 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11e
Daning
CV: 6800-7300 Kcal/kg
POWER COAL Operation Project Operation Project
Banpu 56%
Ordered mine closure on Dec 31 due to license expiry. An extension of the license with local authority is under process .
* ROM production
35
36
6. Power division
37
10,535
Q-Q: -91%
8,829
Y-Y: -11%
19,697 17,979
2,456 1,305
5,026
3,412
296
2,843
3,035
3Q10 4Q10 2009 2010
3Q10 4Q10
2009 2010
8,393 8,151
7,834
6,271
3,116
1,960 2,307 1,281
FX gain
1,128
2,502
344
3Q10 4Q10
2009 2010
311
3Q10 4Q10
2009 2010
EBIT
103
96% 96% 95% 96% 817 52 51 3Q10 4Q10 2009 2010
9,807
8,278
2,468
843
Equity income*
3Q10 4Q10 2009 2010 3Q10 4Q10 2009 2010
Dispatch (%)
EBITDA
38
Sales*
(USD m)
EBITDA
(USD m) 40.3 14.2 8.6
Utilization
(hours) 6,000 5,823
Power tariff
(RMB/kwh)
Coal price**
(RMB/t) 696 645 643 550 0.42
Luannan
Hebei Province Power 100MW; Steam 128tph (Banpu 100% ) 5.8 11.1
41.5
2.2 0.6
1,512 908
0.41
0.42
0.45
Zhengding
Hebei Province Power 48MW; Steam 180tph (100%) 6.5 11.7 1.3 3.4 36.3 31.9
11.1
7,165 6,370 675 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.38 676 535 651
Zouping
Shandong Province Power 100MW; Steam 430tph (70%) 18.3
7,389 7,254
3Q10
4Q10
2009
2010
39
PPA execution in April 2010 Loan first drawdown completed in October 2010
40
Appendices
41
COAL RESOURCES
Insufficient
COAL RESERVES
INFERRED
Adequate
INDICATED
-50
1
Additional reserves Additional reserves
Original reserves
-100
-150
Extensive
MEASURED
-200
PROBABLE
CONFIDENCE Reasonable
PROVED
High
Technical feasibility
New study could prove that additional coal can be mined and increases reserves base
42
Operating profit
Units: Bt. million Total sales revenues* Sales revenues Coal Sales revenues Power (BIC) Cost of sales Gross profit* Gross profit - Coal Gross profit Power (BIC) GPM GPM - Coal GPM Power (BIC)
2009
57,865
52,704 4,788 (29,992) 27,874 26,629 1,182 48%
26,645
25,788 796 41% 43% 16%
51%
25%
Operating profit
Units: Bt. million Gross profit GPM SG&A Royalty Income from associates Dividend income Coal & Power Other income Other expenses - Operations EBIT EBIT - Coal EBIT - Power EBITDA EBITDA - Coal EBITDA - Power
2010 26,645 41% (7,441) (6,925) 6,117 489 1,017 (1,327) 18,575 15,014 3,561 21,966 18,004 3,962
2009 27,874 48% (5,390) (6,467) 7,447 478 351 (2,626) 21,667 17,253 4,414 23,785
YoY % -4%
18,955 4,830
-5% -18%
44
Operating profit
2010
18,575 (1,682) (299) (3,301) (1,987) 11,306 13,235 24,541 187 24,728 91.00
2009 21,667 (1,282) (181) (4,611) (3,574) 12,020 2,730 14,751 (521) 14,229 52.36
YoY %
-14%
EBIT Interest expenses Financial expenses Income tax (core business) Minorities Net profit before extra items Non-recurring items* Net profit before FX
45
Operating profit
4Q10
21,507 20,026 1,391 (14,277)
3Q10
13,688 12,607 970 (7,550) 6,137 5,985 100 45% 47% 10%
4Q09
17,428 15,713 1,477 (10,051)
QoQ%
57% 59% 44% 18%
YoY%
23% 27% -6% -2%
7,230
7,066 203 34% 35% 15%
7,376
6,979 367 42% 44% 25%
18% 102%
1% -45%
46
Operating profit
Units: Bt. million Gross profit GPM SG&A Royalty Income from associates Dividend income Coal & Power Other income Other expenses - Operations EBIT
4Q10 7,230 34% (2,770) (2,066) 522 374 (190) 3,101 3,194 (93) 4,914 4,888 26
3Q10 6,137 45% (1,534) (1,542) 1,254 239 309 (110) 4,754 3,407 1,347 5,292 3,854 1,438
4Q09 7,376 42% (1,820) (1,881) 1,676 239 72 (498) 3,121 2,697 424 3,715 3,240 475
QoQ% 18%
YoY% -2%
47
Net profit
4Q10
3,101 (719) (126) (754) (467) 1,034 3,586
3Q10 4,754
4Q09
3,121 (289) (55) (927) (914) 935
QoQ%
-35%
YoY%
-1%
EBIT Interest expenses Financial expenses Income tax (core business) Minorities Net profit before extra items Non-recurring items* Net profit before FX FX translations Net profit EPS (Bt/share)
796
1,731 (90) 1,641
4,620
303 4,923 18.12
6.04
48
Interest (%)
End December 2010 Measured Resources Indicated Resources Total Resources Proved Reserves Probable Reserves Total Reserves
Myuna
Springvale Inglenook Neubacks Newstan Newstan Lochiel Total
100.00
50.00 95.00 50.00 100.00 100.00
2.7
105.7 0.0 31.0 26.7 59.3 2,127.6
340.8
60.5 54.4 1.9 74.0 137.6 2,211.5
343.5
166.2 54.4 32.9 100.7 196.9 4,330.0
0.0
33.6 0.0 16.4 2.4 0.0 518.4
17.2
29.3 0.0 1.7 8.9 45.7 491.7
17.2
62.9 0.0 18.1 11.3 45.7 1010.1
1.4
2.7 44.7
n.a
n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 2,278.8
n.a
n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 606.5
49
Note: All reserves and resources in Mt. Figures have been estimated in accordance to JORC Code unless otherwise stated * Figures have been estimated in accordance to Chinese reporting standard
Coal specifications
Centennial
(avg. of all coal output)
Inglenook (95%)
(exploration area)
6700
Awaba (100%)
0.9 Mtpa
(8.79%)
4000
Mannering* (100%)
* Total of 2.1Mtpa
Total Sulphur
(air dried basis)
2%
Springvale (100%)
1.6 Mtpa
0.65%
0.70%
Clarence* (85%)
*Charbon and Clarence 2.4Mtpa
Open-cut mine Underground mine Project Power station Port Road Rail
Note: Centennial equity ownership 100% unless shown in brackets
0%
Ash
Sydney
16% 7%
20%
0%
Wollongong
50
Total Moisture
(as received)
30%
9%
0 25
12%
Kilometers
0%
Disclaimer: This document contains information relating to Centennial Coal Company Limited, which has been derived from publicly available sources and has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information.
50