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Jess Long

Human actions have no influence on the global climate and governments and individuals should not consider this issue when making decisions.
In this essay I am going to discuss the issue to whether climate change is human induced or whether it is due to other factors. Regardless of the answer, or if there is an answer, or if its personal opinion, its clear that global warming efforts need to be based on sound scienceGeorge W Bush. Haman induced: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. -the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) The primary gas contributing to the greenhouse effect is carbon dioxide; it is released every time we use fossil fuels- our current main energy source. There is clear data to show that there is a clear rise in carbon emissions due to human activity. There is a rise of nearly 3000 million tons of carbon per year over the past 200 years due to the increase use of petrol; this can be seen in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Graph showing the rise in carbon emissions over the past 200 years

Some countries are taking action against increased used of non renewable fuels, therefore admitting to a large contribution to the rise and use and combustion of fossil fuels. Coal remains the prime energy source in China, accounting for 70% of the energy mix. However in their efforts to combat this china has become the largest investor in renewable energy projects. Global investment in renewable energy jumped 32% in 2010 to a record 130 billion. Despite this, according to Zhang Lijun, vice minister of environmental protection, Coal consumption increased by a billion tons between 2006 and 2010, and its likely to see another one-billion-ton rise in the coming five years. This correlates with the predicted rise in global temperatures. The increasing rise in deforestation is also arguably contributing. Mature forests are very stable ecosystems. Carbon dioxide uptake by photosynthesis is expected to be equal to the release of CO2 due to respiration (including decay). If a forest were cut down, photosynthesis would drop, and although the long term respiration would also drop, in the short term more carbon dioxide would be released than absorbed. It is estimated that deforestation adds approximately 1.6 x 1012 kg of carbon to the atmosphere per year. There are many other factors that may be leading to the rise of CO2. Such as the use of aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) and cement manufacture. We also need to consider the other greenhouse gases such as methane. Are human to blame for large levels of

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Jess Long

animal agriculture? If we were to be less dependent on beef for example, would the amount of methane being produced decrease? Not human induced: The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) states that whatever gaps and uncertainties remain in our understanding of climate change, these are not sufficient to undermine the argument that urgent action is needed. However, they are admitting that such gaps of knowledge and uncertainties on climate change do exist and therefore a potential challenge to the argument that an unacceptable level of global warming is likely to occur without any action. Within this lack of evidence we still lack sufficiently accurate knowledge of the carbon cycle. In particularly the fate of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; it is estimated that burning fossil fuels adds 5.4 x 1012 kg of carbon per year to the atmosphere and that deforestation adds 1.6 x 1012 kg of carbon per year. However, the actual increase in carbon dioxide is only 3.0 x 1012 kg. Proving there is still this uncertainty about the levels of CO2 dont rise as quickly as expected. We know that over the thousands of years there have been natural fluctuations in the temperature, to include extremes, for example, the ice age. It has been suggested that some carbon sinks may be failing. If global temperature increases and therefore sea temperatures the amount of CO2 that is able to be dissolved in the sea decreases and thus releases CO2 into the atmosphere. The media focus has been on the heat waves and hottest days in decades but fails to take into account the contray symptoms such as this winters billion-dollar loss of Californian crops to unusual frost. The early arrival of migrant birds in spring provides a headline story and evidence for such warming of the northern lands. But the fact that in east Antarctica the Adelie penguins and cape petrels are turning up at their spring nesting sites around nine days later than they did 50 years ago, is completely missed. Sea ice has also grown by 8% in the Southern Ocean, despite ice melting in the Arctic. So whilst the governments are charging extra taxes for climate change, Antarctica is getting colder. This counteracts the argument that CO2 levels are driving global warming. If the government bodies are going to take action by raising these taxes due to global warming will there be a refund if its confirmed that global warming has stopped and was indeed not human induced? Also, accurate air temperature from American satellites show signs of wobble but show no overall change since 1999. Conclusion With both sides of the story in consideration I think that due to the correlation between rising CO2 emissions, global warming and increase of human activity to cause this, it is quite likely to have an effect. However, despite the data showing this correlation is doesnt guarantee causation. The IPCC has declared that most of the rise in temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely due to man-made greenhouse gases. Experts that made this judgement felt 90% sure about it. However, Britains top nuclear physicist, Sir John

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Jess Long

Cockcroft had declared that he was 90% certain that his lads had achieved controlled nuclear fusion in 1959. It turned out he was wrong. Concluding that science never solves a problem without creating ten more.- George Bernard Shaw.