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United Bank of India Result Updated
United Bank of India Result Updated
February 8, 2012
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 7.1 7.3 81.1 3QFY11 560 387 163 % chg (yoy) 19.3 25.0 38.5
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 3QFY2012, United Bank of India (UBI) registered a strong set of numbers. The companys net profit grew by 38.5% yoy to `226cr, which was significantly above our estimate due to higher margin expansion and lower provisioning than estimated by us. We recommend Accumulate on the stock.
NIM rises sequentially; Asset quality improves on expected lines: For 3QFY2012, the banks advances grew by 8.8% qoq (up 16.6% yoy) to `59,100cr and deposits grew by 5.8% qoq (up 13.3% yoy) to 82,815cr. Bulk deposits as of 3QFY2012 stood at 19.7% (down from 24.9% in 3QFY2011). Savings deposit growth grew by 3.9% qoq (up 10.6% yoy) and current deposits grew by 12.0% qoq (up 17.1% yoy). CASA ratio at the end of 3QFY2012 stood at 39.8% (39.9% in 2QFY2012 and 40.2% in 3QFY2011). During the quarter, the banks cost of deposits increased marginally by 6bp qoq to 6.7%. However, the bank was able to increase its yield on advances by 28bp qoq to 12.0%, leading to a sequential expansion of 22bp in reported NIM. Non-interest income grew by muted 0.7% qoq (up 12.0% yoy) to `163cr, as higher CEB income (up 5.6% qoq) during the quarter was negated by lower treasury gains (down 4.0% qoq). The banks slippages (`362cr) came down on expected lines in 3QFY2012 after chunky NPAs witnessed in 2QFY2012. Annualized slippage ratio for the quarter stood at 2.7%, down from 4.6% levels in 2QFY2012. Gross NPA ratio and net NPA ratio improved to 3.3% and 2.0% in 3QFY2012 from 3.5% and 2.2% in 2QFY2012, respectively. As of 3QFY2012, provision-to-coverage ratio including technical write-offs stood at 66.5% (65.0% in 2QFY2012).
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 85.5 2.0 1.0 11.6
3m 0.2 3.4
3yr 89.3 -
Outlook and valuation: We believe the bank has several levers for structurally
improving its ROA, but execution risks in terms of improving yields while maintaining the asset quality continue to remain an investment concern on the stock. That said, the bank is trading at inexpensive valuations of 0.6x FY2013E ABV (one of the lowest in the industry). The banks peers are trading at 0.7x-0.8x FY2013 ABV, in spite of having similar and in some cases much lower CASA ratios. We value the stock at 0.7x FY2013E ABV and, hence, recommend Accumulate on the stock with target price of `83.
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit available to eq. shareholders % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 1,391 19.8 305 166.1 2.1 9.6 7.4 0.8 0.5 11.6
FY2011 2,169 55.9 457 49.7 2.7 13.3 5.3 0.7 0.6 14.1
FY2012E 2,549 17.5 565 23.6 2.8 16.4 4.3 0.7 0.7 15.0
FY2013E 2,859 12.1 608 7.5 2.8 17.6 4.0 0.6 0.6 14.4
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 2,051 1,567 482 2 1,383 668 163 118 46 45 16 55 831 348 226 122 483 199 93 284 58 226 20.4 1,940 1,467 463 5 5 1,316 624 162 115 44 47 16 55 786 335 217 118 450 260 118 191 66 125 34.6 5.7 6.8 3.9 (45.7) (100.0) 5.1 7.1 0.7 2.7 5.6 (4.0) 2.2 0.5 5.8 3.7 3.9 3.4 7.3 (23.2) (20.9) 48.9 (12.2) 81.1 (1419)bp 1,631 1,206 421 1 3 1,071 560 146 120 43 25 22 56 705 319 207 112 387 167 56 220 57 163 25.9 25.8 29.9 14.4 217.9 (100.0) 29.1 19.3 12.0 (2.1) 7.4 78.9 (24.2) (0.7) 17.8 9.0 9.2 8.8 25.0 19.6 65.5 29.0 1.7 38.5 (548)bp
% chg 4.7 8.6 5.4 (1.3) 10.9 (13.7) 38.5 (12.8) 63.2
February 8, 2012
3QFY12 2QFY12 %chg (qoq) 3QFY11 59,100 82,815 71.4 7,293 25,646 32,939 39.8 12.6 8.4 6.7 12.0 7.8 3.4 41.8 1,939 3.3 1,178 2.0 66.5 2.7 0.4 54,304 78,244 69.4 6,513 24,693 31,206 39.9 13.0 8.9 6.6 11.7 7.8 3.2 42.7 1,908 3.5 1,202 2.2 65.0 4.6 0.5 8.8 5.8 196bp 12.0 3.9 5.6 (11)bp (32)bp (57)bp 6bp 28bp 2bp 22bp (83)bp 1.6 (20)bp (2.0) (20)bp 150bp (193)bp (12)bp 50,679 73,106 69.3 6,229 23,194 29,423 40.2 12.5 8.2 5.7 10.4 7.8 3.2 45.2 1,485 2.9 763 1.5 71.2 1.9 0.3
%chg (yoy) 16.6 13.3 204bp 17.1 10.6 11.9 (47)bp 12bp 15bp 100bp 159bp 4bp 18bp (335)bp 30.6 35bp 54.4 49bp (470)bp 82bp 13bp
February 8, 2012
69.3
69.4 68.7
70.0
40.4 40.0
9.5 5.9
5.6 6.5
3.2 1.5
8.8 5.8
68.2
68.0
40.2
40.8
40.2
39.9
(1.7) (1.0)
66.0
39.2
2.50
39.8
39.6
2QFY2012, respectively. As of 3QFY2012, provision-to-coverage ratio including technical write-offs stood at 66.5% (65.0% in 2QFY2012). The banks outstanding restructured book as of 3QFY2012 sands at `2,255cr. Kingfisher airlines account was performing as of 3QFY2012, but it might slip into NPA during 4QFY2012 (total exposure of `291cr). Also, the bank has exposure to Rajasthan SEB (~`400cr), which might come up for restructuring during 4QFY2012.
2.9 1.5
2.5 1.4
2.9 1.7
3.5 2.2
3.3 2.0
1.9
3.2
2.9
4.6
2.7
45.2
46.5
43.5
42.7
41.8
40.0 38.0
1.4 1.3
February 8, 2012
Investment arguments
Structurally strong CASA than peers
UBI has historically had a strong CASA ratio. The banks average CASA ratio during FY200510 has been 41.6%. Even during 3QFY2012, the bank had maintained a strong CASA ratio of ~40%, which is the highest in its peers group, which consists of banks like UCO Bank, Allahabad Bank, Dena Bank and Syndicate Bank. Of the total CASA deposits, saving deposits, which are less volatile, accounted for 31.0% of the total deposits, while current deposits accounted for 8.8%. This high proportion of CASA deposits is mainly because of a large retail customer base spread across the eastern and northeastern regions. Of the total branch network of 1,649, 81% is concentrated in the eastern and northeastern regions. Moreover, 59% of UBIs branches are located in rural and semi-urban areas, giving the bank an access to low-cost deposits.
February 8, 2012
Investment concerns
Lower other income compared to peers
During FY2011, other income excluding treasury grew moderately by 16% yoy despite 26.4% yoy growth in overall advances and 35.4% yoy rise in retail advances. Other income excluding treasury as a percentage of average assets remained stable at 0.53% in FY2011 (0.54% in FY2010), which is on the lower side. Even after factoring in a 14.4% CAGR over FY201113E in other income excluding treasury and taking into account revision in fee charges during 1QFY2012, the proportion of other income excluding treasury to average assets is expected to remain relatively low at 0.5% by FY2013E.
February 8, 2012
Earlier estimates FY2012 16.0 10.0 42.1 2.7 0.4 10.0 3.4 FY2013 13.0 13.0 42.2 2.7 (1.4) 15.0 15.0 3.4
Revised estimates FY2012 16.0 10.0 42.1 2.8 5.5 10.0 3.3 FY2013 16.0 16.0 41.1 2.8 (2.0) 15.0 15.0 3.0
FY2013 Var. (%) 2.6 5.0 3.1 5.5 (3.7) 16.3 7.5 20.5 Earlier Revised estimates estimates 2,775 631 3,406 1,588 1,818 958 860 279 581 2,859 658 3,517 1,588 1,929 906 1,023 332 691 Var. (%) 3.0 4.3 3.3 6.1 (5.5) 19.0 19.0 19.0
Earlier Revised estimates estimates 2,486 640 3,126 1,381 1,745 942 803 260 542 2,549 672 3,221 1,381 1,840 907 933 280 653
Jul-10
Mar-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-10
February 8, 2012
Nov-11
Mar-12
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries) # without adjusting for SASF
February 8, 2012
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) Preference Dividend PAT for Eqty.SH - YoY Growth (%) FY07 1,150 13.7 348 (22.1) 1,498 2.8 778 (4.3) 719 11.7 415 13.9 304 8.8 37 12.1 267 30.7 267 30.7 FY08 905 (21.3) 466 33.9 1,370 (8.5) 903 16.0 467 (35.1) 288 (30.7) 179 (41.1) 34 19.1 145 (45.7) 145 (45.7) FY09 1,162 28.4 491 5.5 1,652 20.6 1,045 15.7 607 30.0 431 49.7 176 (1.6) 62 35.0 115 (20.9) 115 (20.9) FY10 1,391 19.8 559 13.8 1,950 18.0 1,074 2.8 876 44.2 465 8.0 411 132.6 88 21.5 322 181.0 17 305 166.1 FY11 2,169 55.9 637 14.0 2,806 43.9 1,299 21.0 1,507 72.1 838 80.1 669 63.0 145 21.7 524 62.5 67 457 49.7 FY12E 2,549 17.5 672 5.5 3,221 14.8 1,381 6.3 1,840 22.1 907 8.2 933 39.5 280 30.0 653 24.7 88 565 23.6 FY13E 2,859 12.1 658 (2.0) 3,517 9.2 1,588 15.0 1,929 4.8 906 (0.2) 1,023 9.6 332 32.4 691 5.8 84 608 7.5
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Equity Preference Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash balances Bank balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY07 1,532 1,532 883 37,167 27.1 400 700 1,628 42,310 2,686 1,599 14,602 22,156 42.7 605 661 42,310 27.3 FY08 1,532 1,532 1,129 26.4 1,162 1,275 2,242 5,249 623 FY09 1,782 1,532 250 1,295 16.1 457 1,525 2,436 4,532 1,878 FY10 866 316 550 3,037 68,180 25.0 915 1,525 2,481 77,005 4,707 1,671 26,068 42,330 19.6 651 1,578 77,005 24.1 FY11 1,144 344 800 3,877 77,845 14.2 2,887 1,525 2,763 90,041 5,943 1,385 26,259 53,502 26.4 819 2,133 90,041 16.9 FY12E 1,144 344 800 4,302 85,629 10.0 2,968 1,769 3,117 5,566 1,979 26,107 62,063 16.0 873 2,343 9.9 FY13E 1,144 344 800 4,770 99,330 16.0 3,433 2,052 3,699 6,456 2,289 30,001 71,993 16.0 979 2,710 15.7
46,971 54,536
54,311 62,031
98,930 114,428
18,515 17,924 27,858 35,394 25.7 623 1,443 28.4 27.0 624 1,679 14.2
54,311 62,031
98,930 114,428
February 8, 2012
10
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA 3.0 1.1 1.9 0.1 2.1 0.8 2.9 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.7 0.7 21.0 14.8 1.9 0.6 1.3 0.4 1.6 0.6 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 23.7 7.1 2.0 0.7 1.3 0.4 1.6 0.5 2.1 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 25.7 5.1 2.0 0.7 1.3 0.3 1.6 0.5 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 26.4 11.6 2.60 1.00 1.59 0.24 1.83 0.53 2.36 1.56 0.80 0.17 0.63 0.08 0.55 25.84 14.14 2.7 1.0 1.7 0.2 1.9 0.5 2.4 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.6 25.0 15.0 2.7 0.8 1.8 0.1 1.9 0.5 2.4 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.6 25.3 14.4 40.7 6.1 0.4 75.0 5.3 0.4 94.9 5.2 7.4 0.8 2.8 5.3 0.7 3.1 4.3 0.7 4.9 4.0 0.6 4.9 1.7 11.6 0.3 0.9 13.4 0.3 0.7 13.6 0.0 9.6 86.3 2.0 13.3 101.2 2.2 16.4 104.1 3.5 17.6 114.4 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.6 0.6 59.2 2.7 1.1 1.4 0.5 59.8 2.8 1.5 2.9 0.3 48.5 3.2 1.8 2.7 0.4 68.0 2.5 1.4 2.3 0.5 72.1 3.9 2.3 3.3 0.7 65.0 5.1 2.5 3.0 0.7 65.0 42.0 59.6 12.0 7.7 38.6 59.3 11.2 6.4 37.8 64.9 13.3 7.6 38.1 62.1 12.8 8.2 40.8 68.7 13.1 8.9 42.1 72.5 13.2 8.9 41.1 72.5 12.7 8.4 3.1 52.0 0.7 14.8 1.9 65.9 0.3 7.1 2.1 63.3 0.2 5.1 2.1 55.1 0.5 11.6 2.7 46.3 0.6 14.1 2.8 42.9 0.7 15.0 2.8 45.2 0.6 14.4 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Preference Dividend
ROA after Pref Div Leverage RoE
February 8, 2012
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
February 8, 2012
12