Fording Canadian Coal Trust Coking Coal Markets

June 2007

Coking Coal Markets

2007 FDG / TCK Investor Day & Mine Tours Event June 13-14, 2007

Forward-looking Information
Certain statements made in this presentation are forward looking. Forwardlooking statements are, by their nature, subject to a variety of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results suggested by the forward-looking statements. In addition, the forward-looking statements reflect a number of assumptions by the Trust, which, if incorrect or inaccurate, could also cause the results suggested by the forward-looking statements to be materially incorrect. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on forwardlooking information which are subject to known and unknown risks, as well as uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested today. For further information regarding risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could affect the forward-looking information, please refer to Forward-looking Information contained in the section of our website titled Legal Terms and Conditions at www.fording.ca, as well as the discussion of the risks to which the Trust is exposed that is contained elsewhere in its publicly available disclosure documents.

2007 Fording Canadian Coal Trust

Fording Canadian Coal Trust Coking Coal Markets

June 2007

Our Market

Hard Coking Coal Market

Global Coal Production
5.8 billion tonnes

Metallurgical Coal Production

745 million tonnes

Export Metallurgical Coal

235 million tonnes

Seaborne Metallurgical Coal

220 million tonnes

Our Market: Seaborne Hard Coking Coal approximately 140 million tonnes
Source: Estimated 2006 global production, based on Elk Valley Coal and industry data

2007 Fording Canadian Coal Trust

Fording Canadian Coal Trust Coking Coal Markets

June 2007

Supplying the Global Steel Industry

Asia

North America

Europe

45%
Vancouver ports

10%

35%

South America

10%

Seaborne Hard Coking Coal Producers

45 40 35 millions of tonnes 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 BHP Billiton / Mitsubishi Elk Valley Coal Anglo American / Mitsui Xstrata Rio Tinto

Top Five Producers

Source: CRU, McCloskey, BarlowJonker and Elk Valley Coal

2007 Fording Canadian Coal Trust

Fording Canadian Coal Trust Coking Coal Markets

June 2007

Coking Coal and Its Uses

Coke Battery

2007 Fording Canadian Coal Trust

Fording Canadian Coal Trust Coking Coal Markets

June 2007

Coal to Coke

Coke

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2007 Fording Canadian Coal Trust

Fording Canadian Coal Trust Coking Coal Markets

June 2007

Blast Furnace

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The Role of Coke

To supply energy for reactions
Coke primary source, PCI secondary

Carbon source for reduction

Carbon reduces iron oxides to iron

To support the weight of the burden

Massive weight of iron ore and coke Coke must maintain size and shape and allow for efficient gas flow through the furnace

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2007 Fording Canadian Coal Trust

Fording Canadian Coal Trust Coking Coal Markets

June 2007

Coal Quality Differentials

Price Differential 1980 - 2004

Coal Type High-quality hard

Price Differential Present

$5 $15 $20

Hard Semi-hard Semi-soft Thermal

$20 $30 $40

Elk Valley Coal produces high-quality hard coking coal

Source: Estimates by Elk Valley Coal based on available industry data.

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Current Seaborne Supply Sources

Western Canada Appalachia Shanxi (China)

Legend

Operating

Bowen Basin

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2007 Fording Canadian Coal Trust

Fording Canadian Coal Trust Coking Coal Markets

June 2007

Hard Coking Coal Deposits

Elga (Russia) Western Canada Appalachia Tavan Tolgoi (Mongolia) Shanxi (China)

Maruwai (Indonesia)
Legend

Moatize (Mozambique) Bowen Basin

Operating Deposits

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Seaborne Demand - Key Growth Areas

China India

Brazil

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2007 Fording Canadian Coal Trust

Fording Canadian Coal Trust Coking Coal Markets

June 2007

Average Hard Coking Coal Price

$140 U.S.$/tonne (FOB) $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Coal Year
Average HCC Price
Source: Average HCC is Elk Valley Coal price Real $ calculated using Stats Canada Historical Consumer Price Index

Prices in 2007 $

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Coal Price Drivers

Swings in metallurgical coal supply / demand balance
Market balance impacts pricing

Cost of new supply

Additional coal supply requires an adequate return on capital

Coal quality
Pricing spread based on quality

China
Market participant at competitive price levels

Technology change
Excessive price differentials create incentive to explore alternatives 18

2007 Fording Canadian Coal Trust

Fording Canadian Coal Trust Coking Coal Markets

June 2007

Current Market Update

Australian situation
Vessel queues continue

Chinese coke
Coke prices rising

Other data points

SAIL tender China Japan negotiations

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www.fording.ca

2007 Fording Canadian Coal Trust