(14-9-2010)

: E.. , . 
1.

(2 .) A P (A) = 0:5, P (B ) = 0:6 P (A B ) = 0:4,  

: () P (A B ) () P (A | B ) () P (A B ) () P (B | A B ).
2.

(2 .)    18 .

\6"  . ()    ;
()       
; ()     
 ; ()   ;
3.

(2 .)     

5    X  Poisson  2. () 
  5     2;
()     
    = 2:5.   
  5 ;
4.

(2 .)   X   

 2 . ()     E (X ) = . ()  = 5  = 2,
    P (X < ) = 2 9P (X > ).
5.

(2 .) H    X

 

f (x) = n(1 x)n1 ; 0 < x < 1; n 1;

n  .     x0 . A 
 1=102n,   x0 .



(14-9-2010)
1:
() P(A B c ) = 0.4 P(A) P(A B) = 0.4 P(A B) = 0.1.
P(AB)
P(B)

() P(A | B) =

0.1
0.6

= 0.166.

() P(A B c ) = P(A) + P(B c ) P(A B c ) = P(A) + (1 P(B)) P(A B c ) = 0.5

() P(B | A B c ) =

P(B(AB c ))
P(AB c )

P((BA)(BB c ))
P(AB c )

P((BA))
P(AB c )

P(BA)
P(AB c )

0.1
0.5

= 0.2.

2:
X : 6 18 . , X
B(18, 1/6)

(
f (x) =

)
18
(1/6)x (5/6)18x ,
x

x = 0, 1, . . . , 18.

( )
0
180 = 1 (5/6)18 .
() P(X 1) = 1 P(X < 1) = 1 P(X = 0) = 1 18
0 (1/6) (5/6)
() P(X > 18 X) = P(2X > 18) = P(X > 9) =

(18)

x=0

18
x=10

(18)
x

(1/6)x (5/6)18x

( =

(1/6)x (5/6)18x ).
( )

12
6
() P(X = 2(18 X)) = P(3X = 36) = P(X = 12) = 18
12 (1/6) (5/6) .

() E(18 X) = 18 E(X) = 18 18 1/6 = 15.

3:
X :
5 , Poisson 2. , X P (2)

f (x) = e2

2x
,
x!

x = 0, 1, . . . .

,
() P(X 2) =

2 2x
x=0 e
x!

= 5e2 .

() Y : ,
2.5. , Y E(1/2.5)

f (y) =

1 (1/2.5)y
e
,
2.5

y > 0.

P(Y > 5) =
5

1 (1/2.5)y
e
dy = e2 .
2.5
1

 4:
()
()

P(X < c) = 2 9P(X > c)

P(X < c) = 2 9(1 P(X < c))
P(X < c) = 7/8
(X 5
c 5)
P
<
= 7/8
2
2
c5
P(Z <
) = 7/8
(Z N (0, 1))
2
(c 5)

= 7/8
2
c5
= 1 (7/8)
2
c = 21 (7/8) + 5.
5:

P(X > x0 ) = 1/102n

1
n1 dx = 1/102n (1x)n 
n(1x)

x0

x=x0

1/102n x0 = 0.99.

= 1/102n (1x0 )n =