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Model Migration Schedules and Their Applications (1977)
Model Migration Schedules and Their Applications (1977)
Model Migration Schedules and Their Applications (1977)
December 1977
Research Memoranda are interim reports on research being conducted Institute for ~ p p l i e d Systems Analysis, and as such by the ~nternational receive only limited scientific review. Views or opinions contained herein do not necessarily. represent those of the Institute or o f the National Member Organizations supporting the Institute.
Preface I n t e r e s t i n human s e t t l e m e n t systems and p o l i c i e s h a s been a c r i t i c a l p a r t o f u r b a n - r e l a t e d work a t IIASA s i n c e i t s inception. Recently t h i s i n t e r e s t has given r i s e t o a concentrated r e s e a r c h e f f o r t f o c u s i n g on m i g r a t i o n dynamics and s e t t l e m e n t patterns. Four s u b - t a s k s form t h e c o r e of t h i s r e s e a r c h e f f o r t :
I.
11.
t h e s t u d y of s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n dynamics; t h e d e f i n i t i o n and e l a b o r a t i o n of a new r e s e a r c h a r e a c a l l e d demometrics and i t s a p p l i c a t i o n t o m i g r a t i o n a n a l y s i s and s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n f o r e casting; t h e a n a l y s i s and d e s i g n o f m i g r a t i o n and s e t t l e ment p o l i c y ;
111.
IV.
T h i s p a p e r , t h e t h i r t e e n t h i n t h e dynamics s e r i e s , i s a summary r e v i e w of 1IASA1s work on model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s . I t combines t h e major f i n d i n g s of two e a r l i e r p u b l i c a t i o n s (RM-75-57 and RR-76-09) w i t h more r e c e n t , a s y e t , u n p u b l i s h e d work. R e l a t e d p a p e r s i n t h e dynamics s e r i e s , and o t h e r p u b l i c a t i o i l s o f t h e m i g r a t i o n and sett1emer.t s t u d y , a r e l i s t e d on t h e back page of t h i s r e p o r t .
Abstract T h i s p a p e r c o n s i d e r s and c o n t r a s t s two a l t e r n a t i v e a p p r o a c h e s f o r c a p t u r i n g t h e r e g u l a r i t i e s e x h i b i t e d by a g e p a t t e r n s i n observed migration r a t e s . The m o r t a l i t y a p p r o a c h i s c o n s i d e r e d f i r s t and it i s shown how s u c h a n a p p r o a c h may b e used t o i n f e r m i g r a t i o n f l o w s from two c o n s e c u t i v e p l a c e - o f - r e s i d e n c e - b y - p l a c e o f - b i r t h census age d i s t r i b u t i o n s . The f e r t i l i t y a p p r o a c h i s c o n s i d e r e d n e x t , and t e c h n i q u e s f o r g r a d u a t i n g m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e s a r e described. The a d v a n t a g e s and d i s a d v a n t a g e s o f b o t h approaches a r e then b r i e f l y assessed.
The a u t h o r s g r a t e f u l l y acknowledge t h e c o m p u t a t i o n a l a s s i s t a n c e of Frans Willekens. In carrying out t h i s research w e a l s o have b e n e f i t e d from d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h M i c h a e l S t o t o , Ansley C o a l e , and F r a n s W i l l e k e n s . T h i s s t u d y c o u l d n o t have been c a r r i e d o u t w i t h o u t t h e g e n e r o u s p r o v i s i o n o f d e t a i l e d Swedish p o p u l a t i o n d a t a by Arne A r v i d s s o n o f t h e Swedish C e n t r a l Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s . Our t h a n k s a l . s o go t o L a r r y Long o f t h e U.S. Census Bureau, and Kazimierz Dziewonski and P i o t r K o r c e l l i o f t h e G e o g r a p h i c a l I n s t i t u t e o f t h e P o l i s h Academy o f S c i e n c e s f o r p r o v i d i n g u s w i t h U.S. and P o l i s h m i g r a t i o n d a t a , r e s p e c t i v e l y .
Introduction Regularities in Observed Migration Schedules 2.1 Migration Profiles 2.2 Migration Levels Model Migration Schedules: The Mortality Approach 3.1 The Multiregional Life Table 3.2 Summarizing the Regularities: Regression 3.3 Families of Model Migration Schedules 3.4 Application: Inference Model Migration Schedules: The Fertility Approach 4.1 The Fundamental Components of Migration Schedules 4.2 Summarizing the Regularities: Curve-fitting 4.3 Families of Model Migration Schedules 4.4 Application: Graduation and Interpolation Conclusion References
3.
4.
5.
Model M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l e s and t h e i r A p p l i c a t i o n s
INTRODUCTION
The e v o l u t i o n o f a human p o p u l a t i o n u n d i s t u r b e d by emigrat i o n o r i m m i g r a t i o n i s d e t e r m i n e d by t h e f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e s i t h a s been s u b j e c t t o . I f such a "closed" population s y s t e m i s d i s a g g r e g a t e d by r e g i o n o f r e s i d e n c e , t h e n i t s s p a t i a l e v o l u t i o n i s l a r g e l y d e t e r m i n e d by t h e p r e v a i l i n g s c h e d u l e s o f i n t e r n a l migration. The a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y , m o r t a l i t y , and m i g r a t i o n
remarkably p e r s i s t e n t r e g u l a r i t i e s . The a g e p r o f i l e s o f t h e s e s c h e d u l e s s e e m t o be r e p e a t e d , w i t h o n l y minor d i f f e r e n c e s , i n v i r t u a l l y a l l d e v e l o p e d and d e v e l o p i n g n a t i o n s o f t h e g l o b e . C o n s e q u e n t l y , demographers h a v e found it p o s s i b l e t o summarize and c o d i f y s u c h r e g u l a r i t i e s by means o f h y p o t h e t i c a l s c h e d u l e s c a l l e d mode Z s c h e d u l e s .
s c h e d u l e s o f most human m u l t i r e g i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n s e x h i b i t Model s c h e d u l e s have two i m p o r t a n t a p p l i c a t i o n s : 1) they
may b e u s e d t o i n f e r ( o r "smooth") e m p i r i c a l s c h e d u l e s o f popul a t i o n s f o r which t h e r e q u i s i t e d a t a a r e l a c k i n g ( o r i n a c c u r a t e ) , and 2 ) t h e y c a n b e a p p l i e d i n a n a l y t i c a l m a t h e m a t i c a l examinat i o n s o f p o p u l a t i o n dynamics. The development o f model f e r t i l i t y and model m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e s and t h e i r u s e i n s t u d i e s of t h e e v o l u t i o n o f human p o p u l a t i o n s have r e c e i v e d c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t e n t i o n ( A r r i a g a , 1968; C o a l e and Demeny,
Rele,
1 9 6 7 ) ; however, t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s
and t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n t o s t u d i e s o f t h e s p a t i a l e v o l u t i o n o f human p o p u l a t i o n s d i s a g g r e g a t e d by r e g i o n o f r e s i d e n c e , have n o t . T h i s p a p e r a d d r e s s e s t h e l a t t e r problem and shows how t e c h n i q u e s t h a t have been s u c c e s s f u l l y a p p l i e d t o t r e a t t h e f o r m e r problem can r e a d i l y be extended t o d e a l w i t h t h e l a t t e r .
W e begin,
in
S e c t i o n 2 , by c o n s i d e r i n g t h e r e g u l a r i t i e s e x h i b i t e d by o b s e r v e d migration schedules.
W e t h e n follow t h i s d e s c r i p t i o n of observed
2.
r a t e s b e c a u s e t h e y a r e l e s s c o n s t r a i n e d by t i e s t o Their children generally a r e not i n s c h o o l , t h e y a r e more l i k e l y t o b e r e n t e r s r a t h e r t h a n home owners, and j o b s e n i o r i t y i s n o t y e t a n important consideration. S i n c e c h i l d r e n move o n l y C o n s e q u e n t l y , bea s members o f a f a m i l y , t h e i r m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n m i r r o r s t h a t of t h e i r p a r e n t s . c a u s e younger c h i l d r e n g e n e r a l l y have younyer p a r e n t s , t h e geographical m o b i l i t y of i n f a n t s i s h i g h e r t h a n t h a t of a d o l e s c e n t s . a f t e r retirement.. F i n a l l y , t h e s m a l l hump i n t h e (Rogers, 1975, pp. 146-147) a g e p r o f i l e between a g e s 62 t o 65 d e s c r i b e s m i g r a t i o n
2.1
g r a t i o n r a t e s ' i s a f e a t u r e t h a t may b e u s e f u l l y s t u d i e d i n d e pendently of i t s i n t e n s i t y , o r l e v e l . considerable empirical evidence t h a t although t h e latter tends t o v a r y s i g n i f i c a n t l y from p l a c e t o p l a c e , t h e f o r m e r i s remarkably s i m i l a r i n various l o c a l i t i e s . t h e U.S.A. and Sweden, r e s p e c t i v e l y . I l l u s t r a t i o n s of t h i s property a p p e a r i n F i g u r e s 1A and 1B,, which s e t o u t m i g r a t i o n r a t e s f o r
F i g u r e s 1A and 1B r e p e a t t h e f u n d a m e n t a l a g e p a t t e r n of m i g r a t i o n d e s c r i b e d above, with peaks occuring a t infancy, d u r i n g t h e young a d u l t a g e s a n d , i n o n e i n s t a n c e , a t r e t i r e m e n t . Vari a t i o n s i n t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h e h i g h peak and i n t h e l e v e l s o f migaation a t r e t i r e m e n t ages i n d i c a t e t h a t a s , i n t h e c a s e of m o r t a l i t y , a g e p r o f i l e s o f m i g r a t i o n may be u s e f u l l y d i s a g g r e g a t e d i n t o f a m i l i e s t h a t a r e d i s t i n g u i s h e d by t h e l o c a t i o n and r e l a t i v e h e i g h t o f t h e i r peaks. A l t e r n a t i v e l y , s u c h a d i s a g g r e g a t i o n may b e c a r r i e d o u t , i n t h e manner o f f e r t i l i t y s c h e d u l e s , by means of t h e mean a g e o f t h e m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e M(x) ,
which r e a d i l y may be u s e d t o c l a s s i f y m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s i n t o "young" and " o l d " c a t e g o r i e s , p e r h a p s w i t h s u i t a b l e g r a d a t i o n s i n between. F i g u r e 1A i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e a g e p r o f i l e o f m i g r a t i o n t e n d s t o b e r e m a r k a b l y s i m i l a r f o r r e s i d e n t i a l . m o v e r s , i n t r a - and i n t e r - c o u n t y m i g r a n t s , and m i g r a n t s between s t a t e s . t e r r i t o r i a l units. F i g u r e 1B shows t h a t i m p o r t a n t a g e - s p e c i f i c v a r i a t i o n s e x i s t between t h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s o f males a n d f e m a l e s . and i n t h e Swedish c a s e i t ' i s a l s o l o w e r in h e i g h t . The h i g h peak f o r m a l e s f o l l o w s t h a t o f t h e f e m a l e s c h e d u l e by a few y e a r s , What d o e s vary i s t h e l e v e l of migration, t h e l e v e l being higher f o r smaller
AGE
AGE
Figure l.B: Age-Specific Annual Migration Rates of the Swedish Population by Sex: Average of 1968-1973. Source: Internal Migration in Sweden 1968-1973, 1974, p. 10.
2.2
f o r example,
t h e f r a c t i o n o f a l i f e t i m e t h a t i s expected t o be l i v e d a t a However, l i k e f e r t i z i t y , m i g r a t i o n i s a p e r person. p o t e n t i a l l y r e p e t i t i v e e v e n t , and i t s l e v e l t h e r e f o r e c a n b e e x p r e s s e d i n t e r m s o f a n e x p e c t e d number o f moves Summarizing o b s e r v e d r e g u l a r i t i e s w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e f o r m e r p e r s p e c t i v e l e a d s t o t h e development o f a r e g r e s s i o n a p p r o a c h s i m i l a r t o t h e o n e used by C o a l e and Demeny (1966) t o summarize r e g u l a r i t i e s i n m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e s ; t h e l a t t e r p e r s p e c t i v e s u g g e s t s a n a l t e r n a t i v e procedure--one schedules. The most common demographic measure o f l e v e l i s t h e . n o t i o n of expectancy. Demographers o f t e n r e f e r t o l i f e e x p e c t a n c i e s , They h a v e c a l c u l a t e d f o r example, when s p e a k i n g a b o u t m o r t a l i t y , and t o r e p r o d u c t i o n e x p e c , t a n c i e s when d i s c u s s i n g f e r t i l i t y . f o r i n s t a n c e t h a t 73 i s t h e a v e r a g e number o f y e a r s a f e m a l e c o u l d e x p e c t t o l i v e u n d e r t h e m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e o f t h e U.S. i n 1958, and 1.71 i s t h e a v e r a g e number o f baby g i r l s s h e c o u l d expect t o b e a r d u r i n g h e r l i f e t i m e under t h e t h e n p r e v a i l i n g f e r t i l i t y schedule. reproduction rate, The f o r m e r measure i s known a s t h e e x p e c t a t i o n of l i f e a t b i r t h , e ( 0 ) ; t h e l a t t e r i n d e x
NRR. GRR.
analogous t o
This
measure t o t a l l y i g n o r e s t h e e f f e c t s o f m o r t a l i t y o n r e p r o d u c t i o n and may b e viewed a s t h e n e t r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e t h a t would a r i s e among a c o h o r t i f a l l o f them s u r v i v e d t o t h e end o f t h e i r c h i l d bearing ages. For t h i s r e a s o n , t h e GRR o f a p o p u l a t i o n i s , o f c o u r s e , a l w a y s l a r g e r t h a n t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g NRR. E x p e c t a n c i e s a l s o have been u s e d i n m i g r a t i o n s t u d i e s by Wilber,
( 1 963) and Long (19 7 3 ) .
However, t h e i r d e f i n i t i o n s a r e
n o n s p a t i a l inasmuch a s t h e y view m i g r a t i o n a s a n e v e n t i n a
n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n r a t h e r t h a n a s a flow between r e g i o n a l populations. The s t u d y of spatial p o p u l a t i o n dynamics can b e conT h i s p e r m i t s one t o d e f i n e s p a t i a l e x p e c t a m i e s s i d e r a b l y e n r i c h e d by e x p l i c i t l y i d e n t i f y i n g t h e locations of e v e n t s and f l o w s . such a s t h e expectation of l i f e a t b i r t h o r t h e n e t reproduction
e ( 0 ) and i iNRR, s a y ) , and t h e e x p e c t e d a l l o c a t i o n of t h i s l i f e t i m e o r r a t e among t h e v a r i o u s c o n s t i t u e n t r e g i o n s o f a m u l t i r e g i o n a l populat i o n s y s t e m ( . e . ( 0 ) and iNRR.. , r e s p e c t i v e l y , j = 1 , 2 , . ,m) 1 3 I For example, i t h a s been e s t i m a t e d (Rogers, 1975) t h a t t h e exp e c t a t i o n o f l i f e a t b i r t h of a C a l i f o r n i a - b o r n woman exposed t o t h e 1958 U.S. California. s c h e d u l e s of m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n would be 73.86 y e a r s , o u t o f which 24.90 y e a r s would b e l i v e d o u t s i d e of The n e t r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e of s u c h a woman, on 1958 f e r t i l i t y r a t e s , would be 1.69, w i t h 0.50 of t h a t t o t a l b e i n g born o u t s i d e o f C a l i f o r n i a . Adopting t h e second p e r s p e c t i v e , Wilber d e v e l o p e d a s e t of m i g r a t i o n e x p e c t a n c i e s d e s c r i b i n g t h e a v e r a g e number of moves e x p e r i e n c e d by an i n d i v i d u a l d u r i n g h i s r e m a i n i n g l i f e t i m e . The a p p l i c a t i o n o f h i s f o r m u l a f o r c a l c u l a t i n g m i g r a t i o n e x p e c t a n c i e s f o r i f i d i v i d u a l s j u s t born p r o d u c e s t h e d i r e c t a n a l o g of t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l formula f o r t h e n e t r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e . f o r m u l a , w i t h x s e t e q u a l t o z e r o , may b e e x p r e s s e d a s The
r a t e of i n d i v i d u a l s born i n r e g i o n i ( r e s p e c t i v e l y ,
..
where L ( x ) i s t h e s t a t i o n a r y l i f e t a b l e p o p u l a t i o n aged x t o x
5 y e a r s a t l a s t b i r t h d a y , M(x) i s t h e a n n u a l r a t e o f m i g r a t i o n The c o r r e s p o n d i n g f o r m u l a f o r t h e n e t
The s i m i l a r i t y ( 1 ) a s t h e net
m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e , a q u a n t i t y we s h a l l d e n o t e by NMR.
NRR d e n o t e s t h e a v e r a g e number of b a b i e s p e r p e r s o n ,
Thus
and NMR
d e n o t e s t h e a v e r a g e number of moves p e r p e r s o n , b o t h t a k e n o v e r t h a t person's e n t i r e lifetime. an i n d i v i d u a l ' s l i f e t i m e . Observe t h a t b o t h measures dep i c t t h e a v e r a g e number o f o c c u r r e n c e s o f a r e c u r r e n t e v e n t o v e r Only t h e l a t t e r , however, i s i n f l u e n c e d by t h e s p a t i a l e x t e n t of t h e t e r r i t o r i a l u n i t . E a r l i e r we proposed a s p a t i a l m i g r a t i o n e x p e c t a n c y based on d u r a t i o n t i m e s , s p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e e x p e c t e d number of y e a r s l i v e d i n r e g i o n j by i n d i v i d u a l s born i n r e g i o n i. The c o r r e spondence between t h e n e t m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n and n e t ' r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e s suggests an a l t e r n a t i v e d e f i n i t i o n of s p a t i a l migration expectancy--one event. r e f l e c t i n g a view o f m i g r a t i o n a s a r e c u r r e n t J u s t a s NRR was a p p o r t i o n e d among t h e c o n s t i t u e n t r e Thus t h e f o r -
NRR
duction rate:
NMR
=
x=o
i L j (x)M. ( x )
where
The s p a t i a l n e t m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e iNMP
The summation of iNMR. o v e r a l l re3 g i o n s of d e s t i n a t i o n ( j # i ) g i v e s NMR, t h e n e t m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n i r a t e of i n d i v i d u a l s born i n r e g i o n i , i . e . , t h e a v e r a g e number o f moves an i - b o r n p e r s o n i s e x p e c t e d t o make d u r i n g h i s ( o r h e r ) lifetime.
d i v i d u a l born i n r e g i o n i .
A s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e c o n c e p t of t h e n e t r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e
(NRR) i n f e r t i l i t y a n a l y s i s i s t h e n o t i o n of t h e g r o s s r e p r o -
duction r a t e .
z GRR = 5
x= 0
F (x)
The n o t i o n o f a g r o s s m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e
GMR = 5
M(x)
x=o
has a s i m i l a r l y u s e f u l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i n migration a n a l y s i s .
I t measures t h e i n t e n s i t y of m i g r a t i o n between two r e g i o n s a t
a particular point i n t i m e . The measure, t h e r e f o r e , h a s b a s i c a l l y a c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r , i n c o n t r a s t t o t h e NMR which measures t h e i n t e n s i t y o f m i g r a t i o n o v e r a l i f e t i m e . Consequently, t h e g r o s s m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e o f t e n may p r o v e t o b e a more usef u l measure t h a n t h e n e t r a t e i n t h a t it i s a " p u r e r " i n d i c a t o r o f m i g r a t i o n , i n t h e same s e n s e a s t h e g r o s s r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e . However, t h e g r o s s r a t e ineasures t h e i n t e n s i t y of m i g r a t i o n a t a g i v e n moment and n o t o v e r a l i f e t i m e . Hence, i n i n s t a n c e s where r e t u r n m i g r a t i o n i s a n i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r , t h e g r o s s r a t e and t h e n e t r a t e may g i v e d i f f e r i n g i n d i c a t i o n s of g e o g r a p h i c a l m o b i l i t y . T a b l e 1 p r e s e n t s n e t and g r o s s m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e s f o r t h e t o t a l U.S. p o p u l a t i o n i n 1958, d i s a g g r e g a t e d i n t o f o u r r e g i o n s . The c o r r e s p o n d i n g mean a g e s of m i g r a t i o n a r e s e t o u t i n p a r e n t h e s e s . F i g u r e 2 p l o t s t h e g r o s s m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e a g a i n s t t h e mean a g e f o r t h e m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s o f t h e f o u r - r e g i o n U.S. t i o n s y s t e m i n 1958 and i n 1968, r e s p e c t i v e l y . of a d i v i s i o n i n t o f o u r groups: h i g h GMR h i g h GMR populaW e f i n d evidence
- high
low
n; n;
T a b l e 1.
A.
Net m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e s :
.NMR
1
j
Region of R e s i d e n c e Total 4 0.0331 0.5408
Region o f Birth
1
0.4122
2 0.0366
3 0.0589
1.
Northeast
2.
North C e n t r a l
0.0204
0.4923
0.0604
0.0600
0.6331
3.
South
0.0300
0.0629
0.4397
0.0479
0.5805
4.
West
0.0203
0.0540
0.0602
0.4181
0.5526
B.
G r o s s m i g r a p r o d u c t i o n r a t e s and mean a g e s of m i g r a t i o n :
GMRij and n =J .
Total 4
Region of Origin
Region of D e s t i n a t i o n
1.
2.
Northeast
0.1202 (26.99)
0.5902
North C e n t r a l
0.7381
3.
South
0.2819 (27.61)
0.6314
4.
West
0.5573 J
W-S
NC-S
0
I I YOUNG 1 OLD
0.30W
NC-W
I w-s 1
t-
d
t-
0.25--
I S-NC
0
c)
S-NC
; lI s-w
I
I
.
I
W-NC
W-NC
a
a a
0.20----- -s-w----&
------------I
NE-W
ONE-w
d (3
V)
z
o a
c3
01.5
r/)
S-NEI I NE - NC 0 I NE-NC
SE N .
HIGH LOW
0.1025
W NE ,I eNC-NE I W N ;E NC-NE
I I
26
27
28
2 9
30
3 1
32
33
3 MEAN AGE 4
;------s
Figure 2: Relatio~, hel\reen ol~served gloss migaprotlnclior~talc. and mean agc of migrrtion ect~ed~tle: U.S. populations. 1958 and 1968. :old
- high
n;
n.
low
M i g r a t i o n f l o w s from t h e N o r t h C e n t r a l Region t o t h e S o u t h , f o r example, e x h i b i t a n " o l d " p ~ o f i l e and a mean a g e o f a b o u t 3 2 . 5 years. The r e v e r s e m i g r a t i o n f l o w s , o n t h e o t h e r hand, t a k e on T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t it may b e u s e f u l t o t h e s h a p e o f a "young" p r o f i l e and show a mean a g e t h a t i s a b o u t f i v e y e a r s younger. d e v e l o p a family o f b a s i c model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s s o t h a t t h e v a r i o u s a g e p r o f i l e s e x h i b i t e d by e m p i r i c a l m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s c a n b e more a c c u r a t e l y c a p t u r e d and summarized.
3.
-.
have f a s c i n a t e d demographers a l m o s t s i n c e p u b l i s h e d r e c o r d s of The s e a r c h ' f o r u n i m o r t a l i t y f i r s t became g e n e r a l l y a v a i l a b l e . v e r s a l " l a w s o f m o r t a l i t y " gave b i r t h t'o t h e w e l l known. Gompertzc u r v e g r a d u a t i o n o f t h e m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e a n d , more r e c e n t l y , t o two s e t s o f "model" l i f e t a b l e s p u b l i s h e d by t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s ( U n i t e d N a t i o n s , 1955 and 1 9 6 7 ) . The model l i f e t a b l e , o r m o r t a l i t y , a p p r o a c h f o r c a p t u r i n g r e g u l a r i t i e s i n o b s e r v e d r a t e s may b e a p p l i e d i n t h e s t u d y of migration r e g u l a r i t i e s . Such a n a p p l i c a t i o n , however, f i r s t l i f e table. r e q u i r e s t h e c o n c e p t o f t h e muZtiregionaZ 3.1 The M u l t i r e g i o n a l L i f e T a b l e C o n v e n t i o n a l l i f e t a b l e s d e s c r i b e t h e e v o l u t i o n o 5 . a hypot h e t i c a l c o h o r t o f b a b i e s b o r n a t a g i v e n moment and exposed t o a n unchanging a g e - s p e c i f i c s c h e d u l e o f m o r t a l i t y . For t h i s coh o r t o f b a b i e s , t h e y exhibit's number o f p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f d y i n g and s u r v i v i n g and d e v e l o p t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a t v a r i o u s ages. L i f e t a b l e c a l c u l a t i o n s n o r m a l l y a r e i n i t i a t e d by e s t i m a t i n g a set of age-specific p r o b a b i l i t i e s of dying w i t h i n each i n t e r v a l o f a g e , q ( x ) s a y , from o b s e r v e d d a t a on a g e - s p e c i f i c d e a t h r a t e s , M(x) s a y . The c o n v e n t i o n a l c a l c u l a t i o n t h a t i s made f o r a n a g e i n t e r v a l f i v e y e a r s wide i s ( R o g e r s , 1975, p.12)
or alternativel.~, p(x) = 1
q(x) = [I
] 1
5 M(x)]
(5)
where p ( x ) i s t h e a g e - s p e c i f i c p r o b a b i l i t y o f s u r v i v i n g from
The l a t t e r p r o b a b i l i t i e s , i n
t u r n , may b e used t o d e f i n e t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p r o b a b i l i t i e s of s u r v i v a l from one age group t o t h e n e x t (Rogers, 1975, pp.16 and 85) :
One o f t h e most u s e f u l s t a t i s t i c s p r o v i d e d by a l i f e t a b l e
i s t h e a v e r a g e e x p e c t a t i o n of l i f e a t a g e x , e ( x ) s a y , c a l c u l a t e d
by s p p l y i n g t h e p r o b a b i l i t i e s of s u r v i v a l p ( x ) t o a h y p o t h e t i c a l c o h o r t of b a b i e s and t h e n o b s e r v i n g t h e i r a v e r a g e l e n g t h o f l i f e beyond e a c h age. E x p e c t a t i o n s of l i f e a t b i r t h [ e ( 0 ) 1 a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y u s e f u l a s i n d i c a t o r s of t h e l e v e l of m o r t a l i t y i n v a r i o u s r e g i o n s and c o u n t r i e s o f t h e world. C o n v e n t i o n a l l i f e t a b l e s d e a l w i t h m o r t a l i t y , f o c u s on a s i n g l e r e g i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n , and i g n o r e t h e e f f e c t s o f m i g r a t i o n . To i n c o r p o r a t e t h e l a t t e r , and a t t h e same t i m e t o e x t e n d t h e l i f e t a b l e c o n c e p t t o a s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n comprised o f s e v e r a l r e g i o n s , r e q u i r e s t h e n o t i o n of a m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e (Rogers, 1 9 7 3 ) . Such l i f e t a b l e s d e s c r i b e t h e e v o l u t i o n o f sevage-specific schedule e r a l r e g i o n a l c o h o r t s o f b a b i e s , a l l born a t a g i v e n moment and exposed t o a n unchanging muZtiregionaZ o f m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n . For e a c h r e g i o n a l b i r t h c o h o r t ,
t h e y p r o v i d e v a r i o u s p r o b a b i l i t i e s of d y i n g , s u r v i v i n g , and migrating, while simultaneously deriving regional expectations of l i f e a t v a r i o u s ages. These e x p e c t a t i o n s of l i f e a r e d i s a g g r e g a t e d b o t h by p l a c e of b i r t h and by p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e ; t h e y
w i l l b e d e n o t e d by e . ( x ) , where i i s t h e r e g i o n o f b i r t h and i 1 j i s t h e r e g i o n of r e s i d e n c e .
M u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e c a l c u l a t i o n s are g r e a t l y f a c i l i t a t e d
by t h e a d o p t i o n of m a t r i x a l g e b r a .
T h i s l e a d s t o a compact n o t a -
(Rogers
and
The d i a g o n a l e l e m e n t s o f P ( x ) and S ( x ) a r e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f s u r v i v a 1 and s u r v i v o r s h i p p r o p o r t i o n s , r e s p e c t i v e l y ; t h e o f f - d i a g o n a l e l e m e n t s w i l l be c a l l e d p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f m i g r a t i n g and m i g r a t i o n proportions, respectively. E x p e c t a t i o n s of l i f e i n t h e m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e r e f l e c t t h e i n f l u e n c e s of m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n . Thus t h e y may b e used a s i n d i c a t o r s o f l e v e l s of i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n , i n a d d i t i o n t o c a r r y i n g o u t t h e i r t r a d i t i o n a l f u n c t i o n a s i n d i c a t o r s o f l e v e l s of mortality.
For example, c o n s i d e r t h e r e g i o n a l e x p e c t a t i o n s of
A baby born i n t h e West, and exposed
l i f e a t b i r t h t h a t a r e s e t o u t i n T a b l e 2 f o r t h e U.S. ' p o p u l a t i o n w i t h b o t h s e x e s combined. t o t h e m u l t i r e g i o n a l s c h e d u l e of m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n t h a t p r e v a i l e d i n 1955, c o u l d e x p e c t t o l i v e an a v e r a g e of 69.94 y e a r s , o u t of which t o t a l an a v e r a g e of 8.95 y e a r s would be l i v e d i n t h e South. Taking t h e l a t t e r a s a f r a c t i o n of t h e f o r m e r , w e have i n 0.1279 a u s e f u l i n d i c a t o r of t h e ( l i f e t i m e ) m i g r a t i o n l e v e l from t h e West t o t h e South t h a t i s i m p l i e d by t h e 1958 multiregional schedule. (Compare t h e s e m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s w i t h t h o s e
set o u t e a r l i e r i n Table 1 ) .
T a b l e 2.
Region of Birth
1. 1
Region of Residence 2 4.49 (0.0643) 48.45 (0.6889) 7.52 (0.1091) 6.60 (0.0944) 3 8.88 (0.1273) 9.10 (0.1294) 49.21 (0.7134) 8.95 (0.1279) 4 5.50 (0.0788) 9.60 (0.1365) 7.67 (0.1111) 51.22 (0.7322)
Total
2. 3. 4.
I
(x) , i n empirical Pij m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e s m i r r o r t h e fundamental r e g u l a r i t i e s Age-specific p r o b a b i l i t i e s of migrating, e x h i b i t e d by o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n r a t e s . Some of t h e s e r e g u l a r i t i e s
(We focus
a r e i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e s 3 , 4 , and 5, r e s p e c t i v e l y .
o n l y on t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n b u t c o n s i d e r d a t a f o r a l l f o u r Census 1958 and 1968.) F i g u r e 3 Regions and f o r two p o i n t s i n t i m e : shows t h a t a s t r o n g and p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n e x i s t s between t h e h e i g h t of t h e i n i t i a l peak, p a s measured by, f o r example, be l i v e d i n r e g i o n j . i j
(O), and t h e l e v e l o f m i g r a t i o n
8 t h e f r a c t i o n of t h e expected i jt l i f e t i m e o f an i n d i v i d u a l b o r n i n r e g i o n i t h a t i s e x p e c t e d t o
and p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s between t h e h e i g h t o f t h e low p o i n t and t h e h e i g h t o f t h e i n i t i a l peak. peak and t h e low p o i n t . d e s c r i b e s t h e p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n between t h e h e i g h t s of t h e h i g h Thus a d i r e c t l i n e o f c o r r e l a t i o n a p p e a r s t o c o n n e c t t h e g e n e r a l m i g r a t i o n l e v e l between two r e g i o n s t o t h e v a l u e s assumed by t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g a g e - s p e c i f i c p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f migrating. This s u g g e s t s t h a t a simple l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n equation may b e used t o a s s o c i a t e a s e t o f p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f m i g r a t i o n a t each age x, pij (x) , w i t h a s i n g l e i n d i c a t o r of migration l e v e l ,
say i O j o
W e explore t h i s possibility next.
~ 0.05
~ a15
HIGH PEAK
INITIAL PW(
L ~ W POINT
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
0.035
INITIAL PEAK
1.0 -
1
I
0.005
000 .1
0.015
0.020
0.025
LOW POINT
3.2
Summarizing t h e R e q u l a r i t i e s :
Regression.
The m i g r a t i o n r i s k s e x p e r i e n c e d by d i f f e r e n t a g e and s e x g r o u p s of a g i v e n p o p u l a t i o n a r e s t r o n g l y i n t e r r e l a t e d , and h i g h e r ( o r l o w e r ) t h a n a v e r a g e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s among o n e segment of a p a r t i c u l a r p o p u l a t i o n n o r m a l l y imply h i g h e r ( o r lower) than a v e r a g e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s f o r o t h e r segments o f t h e same p o p u l a t i o n . T h i s a s s o c i a t i o n stems i n p a r t from t h e f a c t t h a t i f socioeconomic c o n d i t i o n s a t a l o c a t i o n a r e good o r poor f o r o n e g r o u p i n t h e p o p u l a t i o n , t h e y a r e a l s o l i k e l y t o b e good o r poor f o r o t h e r g r o u p s i n t h e same p o p u l a t i o n . Since.migration i s widely held t o be a r e s p o n s e t o s p a t i a l v a r i a t i o n s i n s o c i o e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s , t h e s e h i g h i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s between a g e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n r i s k s are not surprising. F i g u r e s 3 , 4 , and 5 s u p p o r t t h e above c o n j e c t u r e a d d , moreo v e r s u g g e s t a way o f summarizing t h e o b s e r v e d r e g u l a r i t i e s i n migration p r o b a b i l i t i e s . They i n d i c a t e t h a t a r e l a t i v e l y a c c u r a t e a c c o u n t i n g o f t h e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e h e i g h t of t h e i n i t i a l peak (and t h r o u g h it i n t h e h e i g h t o f t h e r e s t o f t h e m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e ) may b e o b t a i n e d by means o f a s t r a i g h t l i n e f i t t e d t o t h e s c a t t e r of p o i n t s i n F i g u r e 3 . Thus a l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n o f t h e form
would seem t o b e a p p r o p r i a t e .
( 0 ) c a n n o t t a k e on negat i v e v a l u e s ; a c o n v e n i e n t way o f e n s u r i n g t h a t t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y
But ' i j
n e v e r a r i s e s i s t o f o r c e t h e l i n e t h r o u g h t h e o r i g i n by a d o p t i n g t h e zero-intercept s i m p l e l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n model
The least-squares fit of such an equation to the data illustrated in Figure 3 gives
for the 1968 data points. The fit in each instance is quite 2 satisfactory, yielding coefficients of determination (r ) of 0.94 and 0.84, respectively. Given estimates of B and 8 . we can obtain an estimate of i I (0). Figures 4 and 5 suggest that with the value of pij (0) Pij fixed, we can find the corresponding value of the low point and use that, in turn, to estimate the value of the high point. Generalizing this argument to all age groups beyond the first, we may adopt the simple model
where
Thus
and in general,
Note that as a
and
E q u a t i o n 11 may b e t r e a t e d a s a s i m p l e ( z e r o - i n t e r c e p t ) l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n , and i t s c o e f f i c i e n t B(x) may b e e s t imated using t h e conventional l e a s t - s q u a r e s tion. procedure. Table 3 p r e s e n t s two s e t s o f s u c h c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e U.S. was e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f 1 9 6 8 d a t a . Regions. The r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s i n T a b l e 3 may b e u s e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g way. F i r s t , s t a r t i n g with a complete set of multiregional migration levels
8 . one c a l c u l a t e s t h e m a t r i x of m i -
t o t a l popula-
o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n f l o w s w e r e t h o s e between t h e f o u r U.S.
i l
With P ( x ) e s t a b l i s h e d , o n e t h e n may compute t h e u s u a l l i f e t a b l e s t a t i s t i c s , s u c h a s t h e s u r v i v o r s h i p p r o p o r t i o n s d e f i n e d i n equat i o n 8 and t h e v a r i o u s r e g i o n - s p e c i f i c e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a t e a c h age. The c o l l e c t i v e r e s u l t s o f t h e s e c o m p u t a t i o n s c o n s t i t u t e a model m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e . 3.3 F a m i l i e s o f Model M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l e s I n t h i s s e c t i o n w e c o n s i d e r t h e e f f e c t s on t h e m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e o f v a r i o u s d i s a g g r e g a t i o n s o f o u r d a t a on t h e U.S. u l a t i o n system. pops p e c i f i c a l l y , w e examine how t h e r e g r e s s i o n
Table 3.
Age
Total (1958) -2 r B
Total (1968) 2 B r
I
0.L7392
0.94 0.95 0.86 0.93 0.72 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.93 0.86 0.73 0.63 0.47 0.50 0.58 0.67 0.18
0.22002 0.15553 0.15040 0.29195 0.26370 0.20037 0.17907 0.14392 0.10397 0.07378 0.06352 0.07362 0.08320 0.06425 0.04919 0.03951 0.02058
0.84
0.89 0.94 0.85 0.72 0.90 0.94 0.96 0.95 0.91 0.76 0.54 0.43 0.47 0.64 0.64 0.63
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
0.13460 0.15736 0.30757 0.32271 0.23251 0.17897 0.12912 0.097 90 0.07522 0.06838 0.07347 0.08254 0.06086 0.04488 0.03019 0.01342
1 0
20
30
L O
50
60
70
80 AGE
c o n s t i t u e n t n i n e Census D i v i s i o n s .
F i n a l l y , we e x p l o r e t h e i m -
p a c t o f a n e v e n f i n e r d e c o n s o l i d a t i o n by mean a g e . The two r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t p r o f i l e s i n F i g u r e 7 m i r r o r t h e f u n d a m e n t a l a g e p r o f i l e o f m i g r a n t s t h a t was a n a l y z e d e a r l i e r i n t h i s paper. The p r i n c i p a l d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e two coe f f i c i e n t p r o f i l e s a r e t h e h i g h e r and o l d e r h i g h peak i n t h e 1958 m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e , and t h e h i g h e r and o l d e r low p o i n t o f t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g 1968 s c h e d u l e . Beyond t h e m i d - t h i r t i e s t h e two p r o f i l e s a r e q u i t e s i m i l a r , w i t h b o t h showing a r e t i r e m e n t peak i n t h e 60-64 , y e a r - o l d a g e group. P r o f i l e D i f f e r e n c e s bv Sex
A d i s a g g r e g a t i o n o f t h e 1968 d e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t p r o f i l e
i n t r o d u c e s i m p o r t a n t v a r i a t i o n s by s e x , a c c o r d i n g t o F i g u r e 8. The m a l e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e h i g h e r from bhe v e r y e a r l y t e e n s t o t h e m i d - f o r t i e s and are l o w e r a t a l l o t h e r a g e s . The l o c a t i o n s o f t h e h i g h peak and t h e r e t k r e m e n t peak a r e t h e same i n b o t h p r o f i l e s , b u t t h e low p o i n t among m a l e s comes a t a y o u n g e r a g e tha.n i n f e m a l e s . A l s o , t h e r e t i r e m e n t peak among f e m a l e s i s b r o a d e r and s t a r t s a t a n e a r l i e r age. P r o f i l e D i f f e r e n c e s by Mean Age Figure 9 i n d i c a t e s t h a t a d i v i s i o n of migration schedules i n t o "young" and " o l d " c a t e g o r i e s m i g h t b e a u s e f u l way o f d i s aggregating t h e regression c o e f f i c i e n t s i l l u s t r a t e d i n Figures
7 and 8 .
I t shows two b a s i c a g e p r o f i l e s which a r e d i s t i n g u i s h -
p r o f i l e a s a r e t i r e m e n t p r o f i l e and t h e l a t t e r as a l a b o r f o r c e
An a l t e r n a t i v e d e s i g n a t i o n i s o l d and young p r o f i l e ,
respectively. P r o f i l e D i f f e r e n c e s by S i z e o f A r e a l U n i t Because m i g r a t i o n n o r m a l l y i s d e f i n e d a s a c r o s s i n g o f a r e g i o n a l b o u n d a r y , it i s c l e a r t h a t r e d u c i n g t h e s i z e o f a s p a t i a l
u n i t s h o u l d i n c r e a s e t h e l e v e l of o u t m i g r a t i o n from t h a t u n i t , s i n c e some o f t h e moves t h a t p r e v i o u s l y d i d n o t c r o s s o v e r t h e o l d b o r d e r s now w i l l b e r e c o r d e d a s m i g r a t i o n s o v e r t h e new borders. But what o f t h e a g e p r o f i l e i n e a c h c a s e ? Should n o t Figure t h i s f e a t u r e o f t h e o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n 'flows r e m a i n e s s e n t i a l l y unchanged, a t l e a s t f o r t h e r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e a r e a l u n i t s ? jecture is valid. 10 ( l i k e F i g u r e l A b e f o r e i t ) g i v e s some e v i d e n c e t h a t t h i s conThe two r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t p r o f i l e s t h a t
it i l l u s t r a t e s w e r e e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e same d a t a s e t ,
u s i n g f i r s t a n i n e and t h e n a f o u r - r e g i o n s p a t i a l d e l i n e a t i o n o f t h e t o t a l 1958 U.S. p o p u l a t i o n . The f a c t t h a t t h e f o r m e r i s a l w a y s h i g h e r t h a n t h e l a t t e r i s p e r h a p s a c o n s e q u e n c e of some c o n f o u n d i n g o f p r o f i l e and l e v e l i n t r o d u c e d by a g g r e g a t i o n b i a s . P r o f i l e D i f f e r e n c e s by S e v e r a l Mean Age C l a s s e s The s p a t i a l d i s a g g r e g a t i o n of o u r d a t a from f o u r t o n i n e a r e a l u n i t s i n c r e a s e s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s from 12 t o 7 2 and t h e r e b y a f f o r d s u s a n o p p o r t u n i t y t o examine t h e i m p a c t of a f i n e r c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by mean age. S p e c i f i c a l l y , w e now c o n s i d e r t h e d i s a g g r e g a t i o n of t h e 1958 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t p r o f i l e i n t o f o u r i n s t e a d o f two mean a g e c a t e g o r i e s : " v e r y young" ( n i j 2 2 6 ) ; "young" (26 c n i j and " v e r y o l d " ( n i j
nij
30);
30).
Except f o r v a r i a t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e r e t i r e m e n t p e a k , t h e p r i n c i p a l i m p a c t o f t h e f i n e r d i s a g g r e g a t i o n by mean a g e a p p e a r s n o t s o much i n t h e a g e p r o f i l e a s i n t h e r e l a t i v e h e i g h t of t h a t p r o f i l e f o r a g i v e n v a l u e o f t h e m i g r a t i o n l e v e l i O j . Thus, f o r example, t h e a g e c u r v e o f t h e " v e r y o l d " p r o f i l e i n F i g u r e 11 i s a l m o s t e v e r y w h e r e h i g h e r t h a n t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g c u r v e o f t h e " v e r y young" p r o f i l e , f o r t h e s a n e Z e v e l o f m i g r a t i o n . The r e a s o n f o r t h i s i s n o t i m m e d i a t e l y a p p a r e n t and m e r i t s f u r t h e r study.
A p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n may l i e i n t h e f a c t t h a t i 8 j
0 0
: 10
: 20
: 30
: &O
50
: 60
: : : 70 AGE
0 0
: : 1 0
: ; 20
: : 30
: : 40
+ 50
60
70 AGE
1 0
20
30
40
50
60
70 AGE
Figurc 9. Ilegrcssia,~~o c f l i c ~ i ~ ~ r " y o u n ~ "and "olil" i:lassifivulion c 11). ~ l ~ (n.. 5 2 0 and A.. 1'1:): lolnl C.S. p0p111aLi~111~, arl~lI OGO. 10.5lI '1 '1
>
10
20
3 0
40
50
60
70
AGE
Figure 11. Regression coefficients for model migration schedules: total U.S. population, 1958, by several mean age classes.
is considered l a t e r i n t h i s paper.
The r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s i l l u s t r a t e d above i n F i g u r e s 7 t h r o u g h 1 1 , may b e s a i d t o form f a m i l i e s o f model m i g r a t i o n p r o b a b i l i t i e s o r schedules. Those a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i f f e r e n t c a t e g o r i e s o f mean a g e g i v e "young" and " o l d " p r o f i l e s ; t h o s e t h a t d o n o t c o n s i d e r mean a g e a s a n ind.ex g i v e " a v e r a g e " p r o f i l e s .
W e n e x t i l l u s t r a t e a n a p p l i c a t i o n of t h e f e m a l e " a v e r a g e " pro-
W e have noted e a r l i e r t h a t s i n g l e - r e g i o n
m a l l y a r e computed u s i n g o b s e r v e d d a t a on a g e - s p e c i f i c d e a t h
rates.
on
I n c o u n t r i e s l a c k i n g r e l i a b l e d a t a o n d e a t h r a t e s , how-
e v e r , r e c o u r s e i s o f t e n n a d e t o i n f e r e n t i a l methods t h a t r e l y
model l i f e t c b l ~ ss u c h a s t h o s e p u b l i s h e d by t h e U n i t e d
1967). These t a b l e s a r e e n t e r e d w i t h (and c o r r e s p o n d i n g l i f e
t a b l e ) t h a t b e s t m a t c h e s t h e l e v e l s o f m o r t a l i t y i m p l i e d by t h e
m e t h o d , s a y ) maybe e x t e n d e d t o t h e m u l t i r e g i o n a l case ( R o g e r s ,
Such an e x t e n s i o n b e g i n s w i t h t h e n o t i o n o f m o d e l
1975, C h . 6 ) .
Model M u l t i r e g i o n a l L i f e T a b l e s Model m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e s a p p r o x i m a t e t h e m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s o f a m u l t i r e g i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n s y s t e m by d r a w i n g on t h e r e g u l a r i t i e s o b s e r v e d i n t h e m o r t a l i t y and migrat i o n e x p e r i e n c e s o f comparable p o p u l a t i o n s . That i s , r e g u l a r i t i e s e x h i b i t e d by m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n d a t a c o l l e c t e d i n r e g i o n s where t h e s e d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e and a c c u r a t e a r e u s e d t o s y s t e m a t i c a l l y a p p r o x i m a t e t h e m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s o f popu l a t i o n s l a c k i n g such data'. Table 4 g i v e s t h e four r e g i o n a l e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a t b i r t h and t h e d o z e n m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s t h a t t o g e t h e r c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e p a t t e r n s o f r e g i o n a l m o r t a l i t y and i n t e r r e g i o n a l m o b i l i t y o f U.S. f e m a l e s i n 1968. Interpolating i n the "hEST" f a m i l y of model l i f e t a b l e s d e v e l o p e d by C o a l e and Demeny ( 1 9 6 6 ) , w e f i r s t o b t a i n t h e a p p r o p r i a t e s e t o f model p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f d y i n g a t e a c h a g e f o r e a c h of o u r f o u r Census Regions. Inserti n g , i n t u r n , e a c h o f t h e dozen v a l u e s of i 8 j i n t o e q u a t i o n 1 1 , w i t h B ( x ) t a k i n g on t h e column o f " a v e r a g e " v a l u e s i l l u s t r a t e d f o r f e m a l e s i n F i g u r e 8 , w e may d e r i v e i n i t i a l a p p r o x i m a t i o n s f o r p i j (x). T h e s e p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f m i g r a t i o n may t h e n b e u s e d i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e a s s o c i a t e d i n t e r p o l a t e d model p r o b a b i l i t i e s of dying t o o b t a i n t h e matrix of survivorship praportions defined i n equation 8.
B y a p p r o p r i a t e l y m a n i p u l a t i n g e q u a t i o n 7 , we
a l s o c a n f i n d t h e a s s o c i a t e d model m i g r a t i o n r a t e s .
And t h e n ,
f o l l o w i n g t h e normal c o m p u t a t i o n a l p r o c e d u r e s o f m u l t i r e g i o n a l
l i f e t a b l e c o n s t r u c t i o n ( R o g e r s , 1975, C h . 3 ) , w e may d e r i v e ,
To e l i m i n a t e
them o n e must r e s o r t t o i t e r a t i o n .
Only i n t h i s way c a n o n e
o b t a i n a model m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e whose s t a t i s t i c s and parameters a r e i n t e r n a l l y c o n s i s t e n t . F i g u r e 12 i l l u s t r a t e s f o u r s e t s o f model m i g r a t i o n ' r a t e s t h a t w e r e g e n e r a t e d i n t h e c o u r s e o f c o n s t r u c t i n g o u r specimen model m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e f o r U.S. o b s e r v e d i n 1965-1970. females. Adjoining t h e f o u r model s c h e d u l e s a r e t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g e m p i r i c a l s c h e d u l e s
A comparison o f t h e two s e t s o f s c h e d u l e s
o f 10-year s u r v i v o r s h i p p r o p o r t i o n s from two c o n s e c u t i v e . d e c e n n i a l census-enumerated a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n s may b e g e n e r a l i z e d t o m u l t i r e g i o n a l population systems i f age-specific p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e by p l a c e o f b i r t h (PRPB) d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r b o t h census years. T h i s e a s i l y may b e d e m o n s t r a t e d by e x p r e s s i n g t h e s i n g l e r e g i o n p r o c e d u r e i n a l g e b r a i c form and r e v e r t i n g t o m a t r i x a l g e b r a t o d e f i n e t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g m u l t i r e g i o n a l method. F i r s t , w e observe t h a t t h e single-region procedure f o r estimating s ( x ) may b e e x p r e s s e d a s f o l l o w s :
1o n s ( x ) = K(t+')
K
(X
+
(x)
10) = , ( t + l ) (x
lo)^(^)
(x)-'
(I3)
.............
- - - --.-a-
NE W S NE
to S to NC tow to NC
, . ..
i
' .
0.001~-
1 20 30 0
LO
50 60 70 80 AGE
0
0
1 20 30 4 50 60 0 0 70 80 AGE
Table 4 .
Region of Birth
1. Northeast 1
Region of Residence 2 5.08 (0.0681) 52.14 (0.7005) 7.88 (0.1060) 7.94 (0.1051) 3
10.11
Tot a1
4
5.25 (0.0704) 8.05 (0.1081) 6.93 (0.0931) 52.41 (0.6936)
-a .OO>
74.44 (1.00) 74.40 (1.00) 75.57 (1.00)
7 4.56
to r + 9
Next w e r e c a l l t h e m u l t i r e g i o n a l demographic
(x
5)
Clearly,
Note t h a t (15) i s t h e m a t r i x e x p r e s s i o n o f
(13) :
Having found c r u d e i n i t i a l e s t i m a t e s o f t h e v a r i o u s r e g i o n a l s u r v i v o r s h i p and o u t m i g r a t i o n p r o p o r t i o n s by means o f t h e PRPB method, w e may c o n s t r u c t t h e a s s o c i a t e d ' l i f e t a b l e t o o b t a i n t h e r e g i o n a l e x p e c t a t i o n s o f l i f e a t b i r t h t h a t a r e i m p l i e d by t h e s e p r o p o r t i o n s (Rogers,1975, pp. 85-88.) Then, a s i n t h e s i n g l e r e g i o n c a s e , w e may " a d j u s t " o u r i n i t i a l e s t i m a t e s o f p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f o u t m i g r a t i o n and d e a t h by i n t e r p o l a t i n g i n a n a p p r o p r i a t e s e t o f model m u l t i r e g i o n a l l i f e t a b l e s ' ( R o g e r s , 1975, pp. 185-189).
4.
M D L MIGRATION SCHEDULES: OE
F e r t i l i t y s c h e d u l e s have l o n g been r e c o g n i z e d a s e x h i b i t i n g a f u n d a m e n t a l p a t t e r n t h a t p e r s i s t s o v e r a wide r a n g e o f human populations. efforts: 1) T h i s r e c o g n i t i o n h a s f o s t e r e d two r e l a t e d r e s e a r c h one concerned w i t h t h e a n a l y t i c g r a d u a t i o n of Hoem and Berge, 1975)
and 2 ) t h e o t h e r f o c u s e d on t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f model f e r t i l i t y I n a r e c e n t p a p e r , C o a l e and T r u s s e l l (1974) combine t h e s e two l i n e s o f r e s e a r c h t o p r o v i d e a n a n a l y t i c g r a d u a t i o n o f a s t a n d a r d f e r t i l i t y s c h e d u l e from which a wide v a r i e t y o f f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s c a n b e d e r i v e d by a s i m p l e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n i n v o l v i n g f o u r parameters. Observed f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n s a r e d e f i n e d w i t h r e s p e c t F e r t i l i t y is held t o t o t h e n a t u r a l f e r t i l i t y o f m a r r i e d women.
b e a f u n c t i o n o f n u p t i a l i t y p a t t e r n s ( c h a r a c t e r i z e d by two p a r a -
m e t e r s ) , c o n t r a c e p t i o n ( c h a r a c t e r i z e d by o n e p a r a m e t e r ) , and a
f e r t i l i t y l e v e l ( c h a r a c t e r i z e d by one p a r a m e t e r ) . Such a model inseems t o p r o v i d e a good f i t , and r e a d i l y l e a d s t o methods f o r o b t a i n i n g an a p p r o p r i a t e f e r t i l i t y s c h e d u l e on t h e b a s i s o f population. I n t h i s s e c t i o n of o u r p a p e r , w e e x p l o r e t h e p o t e n t i a l u t i l i t y of t h e Coale-Trussell migration schedules. 4.1 The Fundamental Components o f M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l e s R e g u l a r i t i e s i n observed age-specific schedules of migration may be examined i n a number of i n t e r e s t i n g ways.
A particularly
adequat.e i ~ , f o r m a t i o nr e y a r d i n g t h e f e r t i l i t y r e g i m e o f a n o b s e r v e d
f e r t i l i t y a p p r o a c h f o r c o n s t r u c t i n g model
I
1)
= rate of descent of pre-labor-force curve = rate of ascent of labor force cl.lrve a, = rate of descent of labor force curve A, = rate of ascent of post-labor-force curve a, = rate of descent of post-labor-force curve c = constant
a,
A,
--
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
AGE, x
13.A THE MODEL MIGRATION SCHEDULE: ITS FUNDAMENTAL COMPONENTS AND THEIR PARAMETERS
~p
~p
x+A
AGE, x
2)
,
force
3)
t h e a l m o s t b e l l - s h a p e d c u r v e of t h e p o s t - l a b o r
a g e s w i t h i t s r a t e s o f a s c e n t and d e s c e n t , A 3 a n d
a3 , r e s p e c t i v e l y . (When no r e t i r e m e n t peak i s e x h i b i t e d by t h e d a t a , t h i s l a s t c u r v e i s s u p p r e s s e d . )
F o r f u t u r e r e f e r e n c e , F i g u r e 13A. a l s o i n c l u d e s t h e c o n s t a n t c u r v e c , t o which w e s h a l l r e f e r l a t e r i n t h e p a p e r . model s c h e d u l e . Figure 13B i l l u s t r a t e s s e v e r a l i m p o r t a n t p o i n t s a l o n g i t s low p o i n t , x l , its Its i n c l u s i o n improves t h e q u a l i t y o f f i t p r o v i d e d by t h e m a t h e m e t i c a l
and i t s r e t i r e m e n t peak, xr. Associated with high peak, x PI t h e f i r s t two p o i n t s i s t h e l a b o r f o r c e s h i f t , X I w h i c h . i s d e f i n e d a s t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n y e a r s between t h e a g e s o f t h e low p o i n t and t h e h i g h peak, i . e . X = x d u a l s aged x o v e r t h o s e aged xl.
calculated f o r t h e f i r s t
T a b l e 5.
Observed v a l u e s of t h e p a r e n t a l s h i f t :
Swedish r e g i o n s ,
1974
Regions of swedena
1.
4.
South
West
The P a r e n t a l S h i f t
2. Upper Stockholm E a s t 27.61 (3.19) 29.77 (0.86) 28.98 (0.58) 27.79 (0.60) 27.45 (0.23) 29.42 (0.23) 26.50 (0.31) 27.48 (0.96) 29.58 (1.75) 25.16 (0.50) 28.i7 (0.27) 26.59 (0.97)
3. Lower East
5.
6. Lower North
observed,
males
observed,
females
V a l u e s i n p a r e n t h e s e s are v a r i a n c e s . s h i f t i s described i n t h e t e x t .
( S t o c h a s t i c v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e r a t e s were f i r s t smoothed o u t by Michael S t o t o u s i n g a method d e s c r i b e d i n Tukey (1977) c a l l e d "non-linear smoothing"). The r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e o b s e r v e d The l a s t row i n t h e t a b l e p a r e n t a l s h i f t was r o u g h l y 26 t o 28 y e a r s f o r f e m a l e s w i t h a b o u t an a d d i t i o n a l two y e a r s f o r males. by t h e mean age of c h i l d b e a r i n g , 4.2 s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e p a r e n t a l s h i f t may be c l o s e l y approximated (Stoto, 1977). Curve-Fitting
Surnmarizinq t h e R e g u l a r i t i e s :
to
have t h e n a model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e t h a t i s t h e s i m p l e s m o f u
a l , a l , a2,
a2, A*,
a3, p3,
a3, A3,
and c .
r e t i r e m e n t peak may b e r e p r e s e n t e d by a " r e d u c e d " model w i t h 7 p a r a m e t e r s , b e c a u s e i n s u c h i n s t a n c e s t h e t h i r d component o f i s omitted. e r s a r e s e t o u t i n T a b l e 6. I l l u s t r a t i v e v a l u e s f o r t h e model s c h e d u l e ' s paramet-
Parameters
and
p ales
a~east-squaresparameter estimates except in the case of the U.S. schedule, for which minimum chi-square estimates are also presented. Data sources are: for the U.S., Long (1973) and Long (1976, personal communication); Polish Central Bureau of Statistics (1974); and Swedish Central Bureau of Statistics (1974). All migration schedules were first scaled to a gross migraproduction rate (GMR) of unity.
Having c h o s e n t h e p a r t i c u l a r f u n c t i o n i n ( 1 7 ) t o r e p r e s e n t a g e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s , one t h e n i s f a c e d w i t h t h e problem o f s e l e c t i n g a method f o r f i t t i n g t h e f u n c t i o n t o o b s e r v e d migration data. Previous research i n t h e a n a l y t i c graduation of f e r t i l i t y s c h e d u l e s h a s shown t h a t moment t y p e e s t i m a t o r s may b e i n c o n s i s t e n t and d o n o t compare f a v o r a b l y w i t h f u n c t i o n a l m i n i m i z a t i o n methods s u c h a s minimum chi-square o r l e a s t square3 e s t i m a t i o n p r o c e d u r e s (Hoem, 1972,and Hoem and Berge, 1 9 7 5 ) . L e a s t s q u a r e s p a r a m e t e r e s t i m a t e s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 6. Minimum c h i - s q u a r e e s t i m a t e s a r e a l s o i n c l u d e d f o r t h e U.S. f o r p u r p o s e s o f comparison. data, The d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e two s e t s
o f p a r a m e t r i c e s t i m a t e s t e n d t o b e s m a l l , and b e c a u s e t h e l a t t e r g i v e more w e i g h t t o a g e g r o u p s w i t h s m a l l e r r a t e s o f m i g r a t i o n ,
w e u s e minimum c h i - s q u a r e e s t i m a t o r s i n t h e r e m a i n d e r o f t h e p a p e r .
To a s s e s s t h e q u a l i t y o f f i t t h a t t h e model s c h e d u l e p r o v i d e s when it i s a p p l i e d t o o b s e r v e d d a t a , two i n d i c e s o f goodness-off i t h a v e been i n c l u d e d i n T a b l e 6: mean" t h e chi-square s t a t i s t i c ,
X 2 , and t h e w m e a n a b s o l u t e e r r o r a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e o b s e r v e d
Both m e a s u r e s i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e f i t o f t h e model t o t h e d a t a
i s r e m a r k a b l y good.
The n u m e r i c a l v a l u e s i n T a b l e 6 s u g g e s t p o s s i b l e s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e model: 1) To t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s o f c h i l d r e n
, m i r r o r t h o s e of t h e i r p a r e n t s , t h e parameter a
should
Table 6 i n d i c a t e s t h a t Thus a r e a s o n a b l e
- "3 & 3 - 5 - a constant = 5, say. The above two s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s r e d u c e t h e number o f p a r a m e t e r s i n t h e f u l l model t o 9 and i n t h e reduced model t o 6 . p l i f i e d model f o r d a t a on t h e U . S , , Table 7 compares t h e f i t s o f t h e o r i g i n a l model w i t h t h o s e o f t h e s i m Sweden, and e i g h t Swedish F i g u r e s 14 r e g i o n s d e f i n e d by Arne Arvidsson c f t h e Swedish C e n t r a l Bureau o f S t a t i s t i c s (who a l s o k i n d l y p r o v i d e d t h a t d a t a ) . and 15 i l l u s t r a t e g r a p h i c a l l y t h e c l o s e n e s s of t h e f i t of t h e s i m p l i f i e d model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e t o t h e Swedish r e g i o n a l d a t a .
I t a p p e a r s t h a t l i t t l e i n f o r m a t i o n i s l o s t by s i m p l i f y i n g t h e
model, and w e t h e r e f o r e a d o p t t h e s i m p l i f i e d f u l l and r e d u c e d models f o r a l l a n a l y s e s d e s c r i b e d i n t h e r e s t o f t h i s p a p e r . 4.3 F a m i l i e s o f Model M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l e s Model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s of t h e o r i g i n a l form s p e c i f i e d i n ( 1 7 ) , o r o f t h e s i m p l i f i e d form d e s c r i b e d above, may b e c l a s s i f i e d i n t o f a m i l i e s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e v a l u e s t a k e n on by t h e i r p r i n c i p a l parameters. F o r example, w e may d i s t i n g u i s h t h o s e s c h e d u l e s w i t h a r e t i r e m e n t peak from t h o s e w i t h o u t ; o r
w e may r e f e r t o s c h e d u l e s w i t h r e l a t i v e l y low o r h i g h v a l u e s
f o r t h e r a t e of a s c e n t a2. I n many a p p l i c a t i o n s , it i s a l s o meaningful and c o n v e n i e n t t o c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e model s c h e d u l e s i n t e r m s o f s e v e r a l o f t h e fundamental measures i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 13, such a s t h e low p o i n t xl, t h e h i g h peak x
PI
the labor
FIGURE 14. OBSERVED AND SIMPLIFIED MODEL MIGRATION SCHEDULES: FEMALES, SWEDISH REGIONS, 1974.
.060
.050
CI
u i
'
.040
t-
t-
,030
.020
C1
.010
FIGURE 15. OBSERVED AND SIMPLIFIED MODEL MIGRATION SCHEDULES: MALES, SWEDISH REGIONS, 1974
Table 7.
Region
Orisinal Model b
United States, 1966-71 Males Females Sweden, 1968-73 Males Females Swedish Regions, 1974
3.41 3.96
0.1141 0.1177
0.0999 0.1216
1.
Stockholm Males Females Upper East Males Females Lower East Hales Females South Males Females West Males Females Lower North Males Females Middle North Males Females Upper North Males Females
14.88 13.28 0.1356 0.1261 0.1140 0.1417 6.42 .7.37 0.0811 0.1000 0.0858 0.1030
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
a b
Minimum c h i - s q u a r e e s t i m a t e s
1 1 p a r a m e t e r f u l l model f o r Stockholm and Upper E a s t o n l y ; i n a l l o t h e r c a s e s t h e 7 p a r a m e t e r r e d u c e d model was u s e d . 3 Upper E a s t o n l y ; model was u s e d .
9 parameter
(6
= 5)
i n a l l o t h e r cases t h e 6 parameter s i m p l i f i e d
two f u n c t i o n s and s o l v e f o r t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n a g e s , x2 - x l , t o f i n d
t h e low
Taken t o g e t h e r
t h e f o u r measures v a r y i n a r e g u l a r manner, and by u s i n g an app r o p r i a t e c h a i n of i n f e r e n c e s , it i s p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f y t h e p a r t i c u l a r age p r o f i l e t h a t they specify. F i g u r e 16 shows t h a t f o r a g i v e n v a l u e of t h e p a r e n t a l s h i f t , t h e l a b o r f o r c e s h i f t , X , v a r i e s a s a f u n c t i o n o n l y of t h e r a t e of d e s c e n t a and t h e r a t e of a s c e n t I . f o r xl, x o f A and p. P, Entering Figure 16 w i t h x For a g i v e n s e t o f v a l u e s a and A , i t i s t h e r e f o r e p o s s i b l e t o i n f e r t h e v a l u e s
A.
With v a l u e s f o r A ,
- x l , a , and A , w e o b t a i n P a , and A i t i s p o s s i b l e t o e n t e r F i g u r e 17 t o
N d i r e c t a n a l y t i c a l e x p r e s s i o n seems t o e x i s t f o r computing o t h e low p o i n t and t h e h i g h peak. However, t h e i r v a l u e s may be c a l c u l a t e d by means o f a n i t e r a t i v e n u m e r i c a l p r o c e d u r e t h a t s e e k s t h e a g e a t which t h e sum of two d e r i v a t i v e s a l o n g t h e migr a t i o n age p r o f i l e is zero.
Reqions of Sweden
1.
4.
3.
5.
6. Lower North
7. Middle North
8.
Upper North
Observed,
males
Model, m a l e s
Observed,
females
Model, f e m a l e s
Source:
T a b l e 5.
, Parental Shift ,
Parental Shift A = 23 A = 29
THE RATE OF ASCENT FIGURE 16. GRAPH OF THE LABOR FORCE SHIFT AGAINST THE RATE OF ASCENT FOR TWO VALUES OF THE PARENTAL SHIFT
o b t a i n t h e values of x for a , X,
a 2 , and c .
Preliminary empirical explorations i n d i c a t e t h a t p r o f i l e i n d i c e s such a s t h e low p o i n t , t h e high peak, and t h e two s h i f t s a r e somewhat more " r o b u s t " d e s c r i p t i v e measures of r e g u l a r i t i e s i n e m p i r i c a l m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s t h a n a r e l e v e l - r e Zated i n d i c e s , such a s t h e fundamental model p a r a m e t e r s a and A . Perhaps, t h i s i s because t h e former a r e " p u r e r " i n d i c a t o r s o f p r o f i l e : they do n o t confound measures r e f l e c t i n g l e v e l s (such a s , f o r example, t h e GMR and t h e jump) w i t h measures i n d i c a t i n g l o c a t i o n s along t h e age a x i s . T h i s a t t r i b u t e of such p r o f i l e i n d i c e s i s s u g g e s t e d i n Table 9 , i n which b o t h s e t s of i n d i c a t o r s a r e p r e s e n t e d f o r i n t e r - r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n a l o n e and f o r i n t e r - p l u s i n t r a - r e g i o n a l The r e s u l t s a r e by no means c l e a r - c u t , b u t t h e y do s u g g e s t a p o s s i b l y f r u i t f u l d i r ection f o r f u r t h e r study.
4.4
(intercommunal) m i g r a t i o n t a k e n t o g e t h e r .
Application:
Graduation and I n t e r p o l a t i o n
Among t h e v a r i o u s a n a l y t i c a l and p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e concept d e s c r i b e d above, t h e most immediately obvious one i s t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f s i n g l e - y e a r migr a t i o n r a t e s from d a t a r e p o r t e d o n l y by f i v e - y e a r age i n t e r v a l s .
A s a by-product of t h i s o p e r a t i o n one a l s o o b t a i n s t h e v a r i o u s
fundamental p a r a m e t e r s and p r o f i l e i n d i c e s d e s c r i b e d e a r l i e r . M i g r a t i o n r a t e s f o r f i v e - y e a r age i n t e r v a l s a r e weighted l i n e a r combinations o f t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g s i n g l e - y e a r r a t e s , where each p a r t i c u l a r weight i s t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e f i v e - y e a r age i n t e r v a l t h a t f a l l s w i t h i n a p a r t i c u l a r s i n g l e y e a r o f age i n s i d e o f t h e i n t e r v a l . For purposes o f i n t e r p o l a t i o n , t h e s e w e i g h t s may b e d e r i v e d from an observed age composition, o r t h e i r v a l u e s may b e assumed t o f o l l o w t h o s e of some " s t a n d a r d " p o p u l a t i o n composition, e . g . , a s t a b l e population.
0.30
0.40
0.60
0.70
FIGURE 17. GRAPH OF THE PEAK TO MEAN DISTANCE AGAINST THE RATE OF ASCENT FOR TWO VALUES OF THE PARENTAL SHIFT
Region of Sweden
2.
I
3. Lower East
II
Males All
1.24 1.07 1.31
I I
Females All
4. South
I
Males Females All Inter All
Males All
'
I1
Ail \Inter Inter
Inter
2.32
I1 I
1
11nter
0.88
I
1.47 0.85 1.47 14.77 15.46 14.60
GMR
1.76
1
14.53
al = a 2
X2
15.82
I
9.63 29.74 8.93 29.31 7.02 28.21 7.05 27.38
X.,
7.92
28.97
f u n c t i o n t o be minimized i s s l i g h t l y a l t e r e d . Table 10 p r e s e n t s t h e r e s u l t s of f o u r such g r a d u a t i o n i n t e r p o l a t i o n e x p e r i m e n t s u s i n g t h e r e g i o n a l d a t a f o r Sweden. I n it a r e c o n t r a s t e d t h e g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t s t a t i s t i c s , parameter e s t i m a t e s , and l e v e l and p r o f i l e i n d i c e s produced i n t h e c o u r s e o f f i t t i n g t h e model s c h e d u l e t o m i g r a t i o n d a t a by s i n g l e - y e a r and f i v e - y e a r i n t e r v a l s of age. The r e s u l t s show t h a t t o a remarkable e x t e n t , f i v e - y e a r age i n t e r v a l d a t a may be used i n p l a c e o f t h e g e n e r a l l y s c a r c e r m i g r a t i o n d a t a by s i n g l e y e a r s o f age. rates. F i g u r e 18 i l l u s t r a t e s g r a p h i c a l l y t h e q u a l i t y 0 5 t h e f i t provided by t h e g r a d u a t i o n - i n t e r p o l a t i o n p r o c e d u r e t o d a t a on t h e m i g r a t i o n of males o u t o f Stockholm and i n c l u d e s , f o r ~ u r p o s e s o f c o n t r a s t , t h e f i t p r o v i d e d t o t h e same i n p u t d a t a o f a c u b i c s p l i n e (McNeil, T r u s s e l l , and T u r n e r , 1977). Note t h a t t h e s p l i n e i n t e r p o l a t i o n i s less a c c u r a t e i n i d e n t i f y i n g t h e r e t i r e ment peak, and i t i n t r o d u c e s a b r e a k i n t h e c u r v e ( a n i n f l e c t i o n p o i n t ) a t a g e 35. I n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d i n 85 one-year a g e group r a t e s may b e i n f e r r e d q u i t e a c c u r a t e l y from 17 f i v e - y e a r a g e group