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The Oil Shock CBIC
The Oil Shock CBIC
The Oil Shock CBIC
4
3
2
4 yrs before
recession
2010
2011
2012
CIBC Forecast
|
$/Barrel
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
-50,000
Source: CFTC
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
-100,000
$/bbl
Mn bbl/day
140
6
5
120
4
100
80
60
40
20
1
Source: US DOE, Bloomberg
0
0
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
OPEC Spare C apacity
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
C ore inflation
Wages
|
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2008-10
recession /recovery
-8
-24
-18
-12
-6
12
1953
1958
2007|
120
250
100
200
80
150
60
100
50
40
*CBO Baseline with an
extension of Bush tax cuts
beyond 2012, AMT indexation
and const. Medicare rates
after 2011.
20
0
6
1
4
1
2
1
10
0
2
6
0
4
0
00
0
April Spending
Cuts
-100
-50
20
*com pared to
2011 Obam a
Budget
150
140
130
130
Real (L)
400
350
120
120
300
110
110
250
100
100
200
450
emerging markets
Ja
n09
M
ar
-0
9
M
ay
-0
9
Ju
l0
Se 9
p09
N
ov
-0
Ja 9
n10
M
ar
-1
0
M
ay
-1
0
80
90
80
Dec74
150
Dec92
100
Dec10
No Flood of US Dollars:
Quantitative Easing No Risk to US$ or Inflation
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
US M2 avg 2000-10
2
0
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
C anada
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
US
|
10
60
40
20
0
QE1
QE2
11
C anada
Forecast
US
5
2
Dec00
Dec04
Dec08
Dec12
12
200
150
100
50
0
JPN
ITA
Gross Debt
FRA
UK
US
GER
C AN
Net Debt
|
13
6
4
2
0
-2
Surplus
US* Ont NB Alta Qu NS
C anada Federal Gov't
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
06/07
07/08
US Treasuries
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
Canadas
15
80
60
40
20
0
-20
FY90
93
96
Net
99
02
05
08
11F
Gross
16
Nominal GDP
2010E
2011F
2012F
2010E
2011F
2012F
BC
3.1
2.0
2.6
5.6
4.1
4.9
Alta
3.5
3.3
3.2
9.9
7.1
7.9
Sask
1.7
4.2
2.8
5.7
9.0
6.3
Man
2.5
2.7
2.7
5.0
5.5
4.5
Ont
2.8
2.4
2.7
6.1
4.6
5.1
Qu
3.0
2.0
2.2
4.4
3.9
4.4
NB
2.0
1.5
2.2
4.0
3.2
4.6
NS
2.1
1.9
1.9
4.9
4.5
4.0
PEI
1.9
1.7
NA
2.3
NA
NA
N&L
5.6
3.0
0.2
18.8
9.7
1.4
Provincial2
2.9
2.4
2.6
6.2
5.1
5.3
Federal
3.1
2.9
2.8
6.2
5.8
5.0
CIBC3
3.1
2.8
2.8
6.2
5.6
4.4
Provincial Forecasts
Canada Forecasts
1. 2010 figures are estimates, differ from growth rates reported by StatCan
2. Weighted average of individual provincial forecasts
3. CIBC's current national forecast
17
10
8
6
4
2
0
BC
Alta
Sask
Man
Ont
Qu
NS
N&L
18
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
Mar-01
Mar-03
Mar-05
C anada
Mar-07
Mar-09
Mar-11
US
|
19
5.0
4.5
6.0%
4.0
4.0%
3.5
2.0%
3.0
2.5
0.0%
2.0
-2.0%
1.5
-4.0%
1.0
-6.0%
0.5
0.0
-8.0%
Q1-07 Q4-07 Q3-08 Q2-09 Q1-10 Q4-10 Q3-11 Q2-12
8.0%
Forecast
20
% chg, SAAR
0.2
100.0
0.1
0.0
99.9
-0.1
99.8
-0.2
-0.3
Growth (L)
-0.4
Level (R )
-0.5
1
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Quarters from start of shock
99.7
99.6
10
21
$/bbl
0.96
Second
rate hike
90
1.00
First rate
hike
1.04
80
C$
depreciation
Third rate
hike
70
Feb10
May10
Aug10
Nov10
1.08
Feb11
C AD (R)
22
120
100
C anada
4
Q
20
09
-
Q
07
20
05
20
4
-Q
4
-Q
03
20
01
20
19
99
-
80
US
|
23
150
100
50
0
Q1-90
Q1-98
United States
Q1-02
Q1-06
Q1-10
C anada
|
24
13
11
9
7
5
3
Q1-90
Q1-94
Q1-98
Q1-02
Q1-06
Q1-10
Q1-14
25
As a Sha re of
Disposa ble Income
6.2
5.7
5.2
13
12
11
4.7
10
4.2
3.7
3.2
2.7
2.2
1.7
1.2
5
91 94 97 00 03 06 09
91
95
99
03
07
11
|
26
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.12
0.25
0.10
0.20
0.08
0.15
0.06
0.10
0.04
0.02
0.05
0.00
0.00
88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
cash & deposits / total equity (L)
cash & deposits / Sales of Goods &
Services (R)
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
|
27
A Normal Recession
105
Peak-to-trough in the
past 3 recessions (index)
100
10
8
95
4
90
2
0
85
81-82
89-90
08-09
80
-2
-4
75
1
3
4
Quarters
-6
84
92
current
|
28
Index,
Q2 98 = 100
Index,
Q2 98 = 100
135
130
130
125
125
120
gap
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
Q2-98 Q3-00 Q4-02 Q1-05 Q2-07 Q3-09
85
29
y/y % chg
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Ja
0
n-
07 -07 -08 -08 -08 -09 -09 -09 -10 -10 -10 -11
n
p
ay ep Jan ay ep Jan ay ep Jan ay
a
e
J
M
S
M
S
M
S
M
S
30
60%
TSX Composite
50%
Long Canada
Cash
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-30
50
31
2012
27-Apr
Jun
Sep
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
1.00
0.99
1.78
3.27
3.74
1.00
1.00
2.00
3.50
3.80
1.50
1.55
2.15
3.55
3.90
2.00
1.90
2.50
3.50
3.85
2.00
1.85
2.40
3.60
4.00
2.00
1.85
2.75
3.85
4.10
2.00
1.85
2.85
3.95
4.25
2.25
1.90
3.00
4.00
4.25
0.08
0.05
0.64
3.36
4.45
0.20
0.15
0.75
3.55
4.60
0.20
0.15
0.65
3.50
4.55
0.20
0.15
0.65
3.40
4.40
0.20
0.15
0.85
3.50
4.65
0.20
0.15
0.90
3.80
4.75
0.20
0.15
0.90
3.85
4.80
0.20
0.20
1.00
3.95
4.80
0.94
-0.09
0.85
-0.05
1.40
0.05
1.75
0.10
1.70
0.10
1.70
0.05
1.70
0.10
1.70
0.05
1.96
3.81
1.80
3.85
1.75
3.90
1.35
3.75
1.60
3.80
1.35
3.85
1.40
3.90
1.25
3.80
1.05
0.95
82
1.48
1.66
1.09
0.87
1.57
11.52
1.00
1.00
86
1.49
1.66
1.02
0.89
1.54
11.55
1.02
0.98
87
1.36
1.60
0.98
0.95
1.62
11.80
1.03
0.97
89
1.34
1.62
0.97
0.96
1.65
12.00
1.01
0.99
88
1.30
1.62
0.98
0.97
1.62
12.00
1.02
0.98
90
1.35
1.67
1.03
0.95
1.60
11.85
1.02
0.98
92
1.34
1.65
1.01
0.97
1.58
11.75
1.03
0.97
94
1.32
1.65
1.00
1.01
1.56
11.50
CADUSD
USDCAD
USDJPY
EURUSD
GBPUSD
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USDBRL
USDMXN
32