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Market Outlook 21st February 2012
Market Outlook 21st February 2012
India Research
February 21, 2012
Dealers Diary
The domestic markets are expected to open flat or marginally in green following higher closing across most of the western markets. Asian stock markets are trading flat as investors remain cautions and wait for European finance ministers in Brussels to approve a crucial second bailout for Greece. The US markets traded choppily on Friday (closed on Monday) as the economic data releases painted a mixed picture with a report from the Conference Board showing that its index of leading economic indicators increased for the fourth consecutive month in January, while another report from the Labor Department showing only a modest increase in consumer prices in the month of January. Although investors seemed reluctant to make any significant moves going into the long weekend, optimism that European finance ministers will approve a new bailout package for Greece helped to keep traders from doing much profit taking. Meanwhile Indian shares rebounded on Friday after some consolidation the day before, with firm global cues supporting the liquidity-driven rally.
Domestic Indices BSE Sensex Nifty MID CAP SMALL CAP BSE HC BSE PSU BANKEX AUTO METAL OIL & GAS BSE IT Global Indices Dow Jones NASDAQ FTSE Nikkei Hang Seng Straits Times Shanghai Com
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
0.8 0.8 (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) 0.9 1.4 (0.5) (0.1) 0.4 1.4
Chg (%)
135.4 18,289 42.4 (3.5) (15.2) (6.1) 69.2 5,564 6,545 7,116 6,375 7,909
8,645 6,267
(Close)
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 18,315/5,572 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 18,397 18,504/5,599 5,634 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 18,315/5,572 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 18,208 18,126/5,537 5,511 levels.
Indices SENSEX NIFTY S2 18,126 5,511 S1 18,208 5,537 PIVOT 18,315 5,572 R1 18,397 5,599 R2 18,504 5,634
2,952 5,945
9,485 3,021 2,364
(66.8) 21,425
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
News Analysis
Cement companies raise prices NMDC cuts ore prices; lowers volume guidance Result Review : CRISIL 4QCY2011
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
693 816 58
4,432 20,704
NSE
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Company
Lanco Infratech JSW Energy Titan Industries Thermax BHEL
Losers Company
Dish TV United Phosphorus Jet Airways CRISIL Hero MotoCorp
Price (`)
23 73 233 538 303
chg (%)
11.6 8.3 7.9 7.0 6.5
Price (`)
67 159 329 945 2,110
chg (%)
(4.9) (4.9) (4.6) (4.0) (3.6)
NMDC has also lowered its sales volume guidance for FY2012 and FY2013. The company now expects sales volumes of 27mn tonnes and 30mn tonnes (earlier 30 mn tonnes and 33mn tonnes) for FY2012 and FY2013, respectively. Although the company has ~5mn tonnes of iron ore inventory at its mine pit-heads, however it faces logistical constraints to increase off take due to breakdown in slurry pipeline, lower availability of railway rakes and stricter regulations in transportation of iron ore in Karnataka. Considering the companys revised sales volumes guidance, we lower our 4QFY2012 and FY2013 realization and sales volume estimates. Although NMDC has a strong balance sheet, presence in sellers market (iron ore), low cost of production, high-grade mines and long mine life, we now expect sales volumes to witness a CAGR of only 5.2% over FY2011-2013. On account of lower volume growth and lower realization, NMDCs bottom line is expected to grow by only 4.0% yoy during FY2013. Further, given the 23% rise in the stock price since January 1, 2012, we recommend Neutral on the stock.
Corporate News
Ashok Leyland's Optare eyes small bus market Frozen bank accounts led to disruptions: Kingfisher Essar Oil plans to raise `3,000cr in next 15 months
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Results Calendar
23/02/2012 Ranbaxy, ABB, Gujarat Gas, Aventis
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