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MKT Perspectives Issue 4
MKT Perspectives Issue 4
MKT Perspectives Issue 4
GenerateIncome Inanenvironmentdictatedbysluggisheconomic growthandlowinterestrates,anyobjectiveto generateincomefromyourinvestmentsiseasier saidthandone.Ortoputitanotherway,income generationremainsincreasinglypursuedandyet difficulttoachieve.UBSstrategistsrecommend investorslookacrossthecapitalstructureand towardsmoreunconventionalsourcesofyieldto generateincome.Weprovidemoredetailonthis strategyandwouldbehappytodiscusshowyoucan makeadjustmentstoyourownportfoliotogenerate moreincome. ReduceCash Thepositivefinishtofinancialmarketsin2011has carriedoverintothisyear.Animprovedtonetothe Europeansovereigncrisisandstrongerthanforecast economicdataaccountforthisperformance.Yet marketsdonotfollowstraightlinesequityrisk premiumsarestillhistoricallyelevatedsuggesting stocksremainparticularlyexposedtothedownside onanynegativemacronews.Asaresult,wedonot anticipatecapitalappreciationtobetheprimary driverofreturnsinportfolios.Incomegeneration matters.Butinvestorscannotgetthatfromnear zeroyieldsonmoneymarketsandshorttermbonds. Acontinuedredeploymentofcashisnecessary, particularlyasourstrategistsexpectpolicyrates& yieldstoremainlowastheeconomydeleverages. DividendGrowthoverPureDividendYield UBScreatedtheDividendRulerstrategytofocus investorsonastockportfoliothatemphasized sustainabledividendgrowth.Simplytargetinghigh dividendyieldingsectorsoftheS&P500canlead investorstopurchasestocksthatareexpensive.We estimatetwohighdividendsectorstradeathefty premiumstothemarkettheTelecomsectorstands ata140%relativeP/EmultipletotheS&Pandthe Utilitysectoratapprox.125%.Meanwhile,our DividendRulerstockspresentlygarneravery modestpremiumtotheS&P500earningsmultiple. Weexpectdividendgrowthtofarexceedearnings growththisyearafterlaggingsince2008.Andour estimatefor10%dividendgrowthleavescompanies
ampleroomtoboostdividendsfurtheraspayout ratiosareonlyslightlyabovetheiralltimelow reachedin2010. Increasecreditrisktoaddyield Corporatebondscontinuetobenefitfromstrong balancesheets.Thecombinationof'justenough growthwithlimitedinflation'ispositiveforcredit markets.Atthisstage,ourcreditstrategistsbelieve itismoreprudenttoaddyieldbymovingintohigh yieldcorporatebonds.Forindividuals,liquidity concernscanbealleviatedbycorporatebondfunds wherecurrentincomeisaprimaryobjective.Itis alsonotablethatHighYieldbondETFs(ie.HYG,JNK) areexpandingsignificantlyasinstitutionalinvestors seekliquidalternativestoTreasuries.Weexpect Fedpolicytocontinuetodriveasearchfor additionalyieldthatbenefitsthebackdropforthe creditmarket. MLPsAndREITs Thesetwoclassesofsecuritiesrepresentastrong, incomeorientedassetclass.REITs(propertysector) andMLPs(energysector)passalongthebulkoftheir incometoinvestorsintheformofdividendsthe broadestREITindexdividendyieldisnearly2xthe 10yrTreasuryyield. Thepropertysectorcontinuestoimproveas occupancyratesclimbandsignsofprogress emanatefromtheresidentialsector.Thefocuson oil&gasproductionfromshaleresourcesfigures prominentlyingovernmentandindustrydata showingtheUSisincreasinglymeetingitsdomestic energydemands.Inadditiontotechnicalsupport frominvestorsseekingyield,thereisunderlying, fundamentalsupportforthesesectors. Aswithanyinvestment,understandingtax considerationsrelatedtotheseincomegenerating securitiesandstrategiesisrecommended.Higher yieldingsecuritiesandstrategiesalsoneedtobe evaluatedonacasebycasebasis.Weareprepared toanalyzealloftheseissueswithinthecontextof yourfinancialgoalsandrisktolerance.