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Goodyear Result Updated
Goodyear Result Updated
Goodyear India
Performance Highlights
Y/E December (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adjusted PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 16.0 16.9 7bp (9.7) 3QCY11 395 28 7.1 16 % chg (qoq) 0.1 22.5 159bp 27.2
`358 `484
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (Rs cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (Rs) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Automobile 825 0.7 376 / 216 24,452 10 17,731 5,376 GDYR.BO GDYR IN
For 4QCY2011, Goodyear India Ltd. (GIL) reported lower-than-expected top line at `395cr as against our expectation of `441cr. However, the companys EBITDA margin remained flat on a yoy basis despite higher raw-material cost, which was offset by lower other expenses. Net profit for the quarter came in at `20cr, 8.8% lower than our estimate of `22cr. We maintain our Buy view on the stock. Branded business and tractor tyre demand to drive future growth: GIL is a market leader in the tractor tyre industry. Tractor tyres accounted for ~60% of the companys tonnage offtake in CY2010. The tractor industry witnessed growth of 27% in 2010 and is expected to grow at the same pace going forward, helping the company to register a ~17% CAGR in revenue over CY2011-13E. Moreover, GIL caters to high-end brands such as Audi, BMW, Land Rover, Mitsubishi and Porsche and has a brand name in the commodity business with stupendous ROIC of 1,022.7% for CY2011 in comparison to less than 30% of other listed peers. Furthermore, the company is debt free with cash reserves of `249cr for CY2011. Outlook and valuation: We expect GILs revenue to post a 17.2% CAGR over CY2011-13E along with a 239bp expansion in its EBITDA margin on account of easing rubber prices, which is evident from a 29% decline from the high of `243/kg in April 2011 to `188 as on February 27, 2012. In addition, we expect the companys net profit to witness a 37.5% CAGR over CY2011-13E to `122cr. At `358, the stock is trading at PE of 6.8x its CY2013E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of `484, based on a target P/E of 8.0x for CY2013E earnings.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 74.0 6.3 4.4 15.3
3m 9.7 26.9
1yr
3yr
Key financials
Y/E December (` cr) Net Sales % chg Net Profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (Rs) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoIC (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
CY2010 1297 27.6 75 2.3 8.7 32.4 11.0 3.0 30.8 412.8 0.5 5.4
CY2011 1516 16.9 65 (13.7) 7.4 28.0 12.8 2.6 22.0 1022.7 0.4 5.1
CY2012E 1780 17.4 88 35.6 8.5 38.0 9.4 2.2 25.0 844.2 0.3 3.5
CY2013E 2082 17.0 122 39.4 9.8 52.9 6.8 1.7 28.2 645.3 0.2 2.1
Shareen Batatawala
+91- 22- 3935 7800 Ext: 6849 shareen.batatawala@angelbroking.com
4QCY11 395 291 73.6 20 5.0 50 12.7 361 34 8.7 2 5 2.7 30 7.6 10 32.7 20 5.1 23 8.8
4QCY10 341 244 71.7 15 4.5 52 15.2 311 29 8.6 1 4 8.5 33 9.5 10 30.9 22 6.6 23 9.7
yoy chg (%) 16.0 19.0 29.7 (2.9) 15.9 16.9 26.0 30.6 (68.0) (7.2) (1.7) (9.7)
3QCY11 395 294 74.4 18 4.6 55 13.8 367 28 7.1 2 5 2.6 24 6.0 8 32.4 16 4.0 23
qoq chg (%) 0.1 (1.0) 7.7 (8.2) (1.6) 22.5 (16.7) 4.3 6.3 27.7 28.9 27.2
CY2011 1516 1131 74.6 73 4.8 200 13.2 1404 112 7.4 5 20 9 96 6.3 32 32.9 65 4.3 23
CY2010 1297 942 72.6 56 4.3 186 14.4 1184 113 8.7 4 15 17 111 8.6 36 32.6 75 5.8 23 32.4
% chg 16.9 20.1 30.9 7.1 18.6 (0.5) 37.8 28.4 (48.6) 12.6 (12.4) (13.7)
(9.7)
6.9
27.2
28.0
(13.7)
395 34 8.7 20
Investment rationale
Dominant player in the tractor tyre segment
GIL is the market leader in the tractor tyre segment, with a market share of ~22.3% in the tractor front tyres segment and ~35.9% in the tractor rear tyres segment. Tractor tyres accounted for ~60% of the companys tonnage offtake in CY2010, followed by passenger car radials, which accounted for 33% of the total offtake. As per Tractor Manufacturers Association (TMA), the tractor industry grew by 25% and 27% in CY2009 and CY2010, respectively. We expect demand for tractors to grow robustly in future, given the governments thrust on improving farm output and higher planned expenditure for the same in the budget. Moreover, increasing awareness regarding the use of modern techniques of farming among farmers is expected to trigger tractor sales in the years to come. We estimate tractor sales to register an 8-10% CAGR over FY2011-13E. Being a market leader in this segment, we expect GIL to benefit immensely and estimate the company to register a sales CAGR of 17.2% over CY2011-13E.
35.9
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0.3 MHCV Passenger cars 2008 Tractor Front 2009 2010 Tractor Rear 13.4 22.3
Financial performance
Exhibit 5: Key assumptions
CY2012E Change in tyre realization Change in rubber price
Source: Angel Research
2.0 1.0
(` cr)
1500
(%)
150
12
(%)
100
(` cr)
60 30 0 CY2009 CY2010 PAT (LHS) CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E PAT growth (RHS) 0
(50)
(`)
Feb-08 Price
Feb-09 2x 5x
Feb-10 8x
Feb-11 11x
Feb-12
(%)
50
Risks
Volatile rubber prices: Rubber is the major raw material used in the manufacture of tyres and constitutes ~65% of the total raw-material cost. Rubber price was at a high of `243/kg in April 2011; however, prices have come down to `188/kg as on February 27, 2012. Increased volatility in rubber prices would have a direct impact on the companys EBITDA margin and consequently its profit. Exhibit 12: Rubber price trend
300 250 200 12 9 6
(`/kg)
150 100 50 0
Rubber price
Source: Rubber Board (*MTD)
*Feb-12
Mar-11
Aug-11
May-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Feb-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jan-12
(%)
Source: Angel Research; Note: Industry includes Apollo Tyres, MRF, Goodyear India, JK Tyre and CEAT, @TPD stands for tonne per day, *As on February 27, 2012
The current capacity of the tyre industry in India is ~22.6lakh MTPA with an assumption of 352 working days, thus leading to revenue per MT of `2.6lakh. Assuming a 9% CAGR for the next three years, the capacity is expected to increase by ~6.7lakh tonnes to ~29.3lakh tonnes in FY2014E. Currently, investment for expansion of one TPD is `6.1cr, of which `5cr is capex requirement and `1.1cr is working capital requirement. Hence, the total investment required for the next three years is `11,569cr. With the assumption of 1:1 debt-equity ratio and 20% dividend payout for the next three years, net profit for FY2014E is expected to stand at `2,410cr, resulting in PE of 4.0x its earnings.
The company
GIL is a subsidiary of Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company, USA, which holds a 74% stake in the company. GIL is the sixth largest tyre manufacturing company in India, with an overall market share of 5.5%.
(%)
10 5 0 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Apollo tyres MRF Ltd JK tyres Ceat tyres Goodyear Tyres
The company majorly caters to the tractor tyre segment, with a market share of ~22.3% in tractor front tyres and 35.9% in tractor rear tyres. In the passenger car tyres segment, which is the second major revenue contributor, GIL has a market share of 13.4%. GIL is in an offtake agreement (on a non-exclusive basis and can be terminated by either party with a four-month notice) with Goodyear South Asia Tyres Pvt. Ltd., from which it procures tyres. This constituted about 23% of net sales in CY2010.
10
Balance Sheet
Y/E December (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Preference Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Minority Interest Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability 23 138 161 11 23 192 215 11 23 248 271 10 23 293 317 23 360 383 23 460 483 CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E
Total Liabilities
APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Inventory Debtors Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off
172
264 149 115 13 240 55 12 71 102 196 44 -
226
277 157 120 36 325 159 16 52 99 257 69 -
281
304 166 139 59 395 218 18 61 98 312 83 -
317
337 185 151 59 487 249 22 86 131 382 106 -
383
370 208 163 59 589 301 28 89 171 429 160 -
483
407 232 175 59 737 390 33 102 211 489 248 -
Total Assets
172
226
281
317
383
483
11
12
Key Ratios
Y/E December (` cr) Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E
25.6 19.0 5.1 1.7 0.8 14.5 4.3 14.0 14.0 18.8 6.0 69.7 4.6 0.6 9.3 26.0 (0.3) 17.1 24.6 42.3 21.1 3 28 40 83 (4.4) (0.3) (1.0) 13.1
11.3 9.6 3.8 2.0 0.7 5.4 2.9 31.7 31.7 37.2 7.0 93.1 10.9 0.7 13.7 97.9 (0.7) 25.6 53.8 149.2 39.0 4 19 35 105 (32.2) (0.7) (1.3) 28.2
11.0 9.2 3.0 2.3 0.5 5.4 2.1 32.4 32.4 39.1 7.0 117.4 7.5 0.7 54.8 278.4 (0.8) 54.3 37.6 30.8 4 17 27 96 (38.0) (0.8) (1.9) 25.8
12.8 9.8 2.6 2.3 0.4 5.1 1.8 28.0 28.0 36.5 7.0 137.2 6.1 0.7 167.3 686.4 (0.8) 146.2 30.7 22.0 5 21 31 99 (34.5) (0.8) (2.2) 17.8
9.4 7.5 2.2 0.1 0.3 3.5 1.4 38.0 38.0 47.6 8.0 165.9 7.2 0.7 79.4 383.3 (0.8) 36.7 844.2 25.0 5 18 35 96 (28.8) (0.8) (2.0) 20.0
6.8 5.6 1.7 0.1 0.2 2.1 0.9 52.9 52.9 63.5 8.0 209.5 8.6 0.7 62.6 361.8 (0.8) 41.5 645.3 28.2 5 18 37 95 (24.9) (0.8) (1.9) 22.7
412.8 1,022.7
13
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Goodyear India No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
14