RP14/98-99

1999 7 28

3
5

:(852) 2869 7735

:(852) 2525 0990

:http://legco.gov.hk
:library@legco.gov.hk

1
1
1
2

(Health Security Plan)

3
3
4
4
6
8
8
8
9
10
11
11
13

14
14
14
14
15
16
16
17
17
18
18
19
19

20
21
21
22
23
24
24
25
26
26
26
27
29
29
29
30
31
32

34
34
34
35
36
37
38
38
38
39
39

40

41

1.

65

2.

3.

1996/97 4.6% 2016 5.6%

6.4%
1996/97 14% 2016 20% 23%

4.

6
20
20%

5.

6.

( )
( )

(
)

7.

2%

1%

8.

1.

1.1
1999 4 19
( ) (
) ? ?

2.

2.1
?
?

2.2

3.

3.1
5

http://www.legco.gov.hk
3.2

?
? 1999 6 20

4.

4.1
1
RP06/PLC

http://www.legco.gov.hk
1

($)

($)

($)

($)

($)

5.

5.1
1997 11

1999 4 ? ?

(Health Security Plan)

5.2

5.3

1.5% 2%

5.4
(Health Security Fund, Inc.)

5.5
2
1

1.5-2%
($)

1%
($)

($)

65

($)

($)

($)

( ) +
( )
+

5.6

5.7
( )
12 18

5.8

5.9
3
1

1.5-2.0%
($)

($)

1%
($)

65

($)

($)

($)

( )
( 12-18 )

5.10
(
150 )

20%( 50 )

5.11

65

5.12

1%
65
2.5

5.13

6.

6.1

1
6.2

90% 20%

... ...

RP06/PLCRP08PLCRP09/PLCRP10/PLCRP11/PLCRP12/98-99

7.

7.1

+
*

(Medicare)

(Medisave) +

(Medishield)

(National Health
Insurance)

(National Health
Service)

(Medicare)

(Medicaid)

RP06/PLC RP08PLCRP09/PLCRP10/PLCRP11/PLCRP12/98-99

10

8.

8.1

(
)

(1996/97)

53.7

46.3

(1994/95)

59.2

7.8

10.9

22.1

(1995)

32.2

0.8

8.4

58.7

(1996)

10.3

54.0

35.7

(1995)

85.1*

14.9

(1996)

14.1

32.6

32.6

20.7

RP06/PLCRP08PLCRP09/PLCRP10/PLCRP11/PLCRP12/98-99

9.

9.1

11

X
*

**
X

X
X

X
X

X
X

*
**

65

RP06/PLCRP08PLCRP09/PLCRP10/PLCRP11/PLCRP12/98-99

12

10.

10.1
5
1995
14%

1
10.2
5 (
)

:1 9 8 6 ( )

12,006

127,957

5,956

59,948(1991)

256,325

3,595,020

1995( )

54,895

252,957

16,094

101,714

590,825

7,732,920

:1 9 8 6 ( )

2,183

7,933

2,383

2,963(1991)

4,750

14,040

1995( )

8,698

13,902

5,392

5,237

10,375

28,080

1986

3.7

8.0

3.3

4.6(1991)

5.8

10.4

1995

4.8

8.5

2.9

5.4

6.9

13.6

76.3

75.2

74.2

71.9

74.3

73.0

81.8

81.1

78.7

77.8

79.4

79.0

4.1

5.8

4.0

5.4

6.6

7.6

5.1

7.0

4.7

7.6

11.0

8.7

(1995 )

:
( )

( )

( )

( )

RP06/PLCRP08PLCRP09/PLCRP10/PLCRP11/PLCRP12/98-99

P.66, Health Care System Around the World: Characteristics, Issues, Reforms by Marie L. Lassey,
William R. Lassey and Martin J.Jinks

13

11.

11.1
3

11.2

(i)

(ii)

11.3

1996/97 14% 2016 20% 23%

5%
1996/97 4.6% 2016 5.6% 6.4%( 6)

14

2016

(
)
(
)
(
)
(
)
5

5.6-6.4

3.4-4.0

2.2-2.4

6.6-7.5

4.0-4.7

2.6-2.8

7.6-8.7

4.6-5.4

3.0-3.3

8.9-9.1

5.4-6.3

3.5-3.8

10.3-11.7

6.3-7.3

4.0-4.4

4.27

12.

12.1
1991 1996
16.8% 12.4%
14.6%
12.2
1991 1996 6
20 2016 13.5%
14.3%
12.4%( 7) 4
7

15

2016

3.7

2.3

(1997
2016 )

14.3

12.4

9.7

11.0

51.3

58.2

19.6

8.8

19.4

22.0

( )

Table 6, Special Report #6: Financial Projection and Simulation Model

12.3

50%
60%
1998 1999

12.4

22% 20%
2

page 6, Special Report #6: Financial Projection and Simulation Models

16

12.5

( )

12.6

3 20%
20%

12.7

19.6% 8.8%

12.8

9.7% 11%

page 6, Special Report #6: Financial Projection and Simulation Models

17

12.9

0.5% 0.8% 65
3 4 4

13.

6
13.1
6 (1991-1996 ) 6

13.2
6 20

5
13.3
1991 1996

20

13.4

1991
8
1992/93 25

4
5

1999 6 20
Section 2, Part I, Special Report #6, Financial Projection and Simulation Model

18

1992/93

(
)

7,999

156

64

2,471

70

10,760

8 3 5 /9 1 -9 2

13.5

1993/94 2,300 1997/98 5 3,800

13.6
12.6
(20%)

13.7
20
2.5% 3.3% 65% 80%

19

14.

14.1

14.2



6

(10 )

(10
)

19.8

19.80

19.5

P2015

19.57

10

19.2

P2020

19.23

15

18.9

P2030

18.56

20

18.8

P2515

19.35

25

18.7

P2520

19.01

30

18.6

P2525

18.68

35

18.6

P3010

19.47

P3015

19.11

P3030

18.14

P 2 0 1 5 2 , 0 0 0 1 5 % P 3 0 1 0
3 , 0 0 0 1 0 %

(Special Report #6:Financial Projection and Simulation Model)Table13 and Table 18

1999 6 20

20

14.3

5 35
7
( 9)
8

15.

15.1

10

15.2

Special Report #6:Financial Projection and Simulation Model)

1999 6 20

21

15.3
65

10

(
)

"

"

#1

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

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"

"

(

)

"

"

"

RP06/PLCRP08/PLCRP09/PLCRP10/PLCRP11/PLCRP12/98-99

15.4
10
1986
1995
15%
1997 2.8%

22

15.5

15.6

15.7

15.8

Special Report #2: International Comparison of Health Systems

23

16.

16.1

16.2

(
)

16.3

16.4

20% 25% ( 30 )

16.5
120

(a)

4,000

(b)

(a)
(b) 65

24

16.6

30
120

11

!
!

!
!
!
!

17.

17.1

2.5 7 65
1

25

18.

18.1

1.5% 2%

150

18.2

30 35 1%
1%

19.

19.1
12 12A

19.2

65

19.3
65
1996 629 555 65

1996 9,500
629 555 ( 35
1%) 250 ( 12)
1996/97 226

26

19.4

2.5

19.5

10
0.5% 1996/97
1 8,700 ( 374 x 0.5%)
( 1996/97 5 )
19.6

262
65

19.7

30 ( 12A)

19.8

4,000
35
19.9
75
1996/97
2 3,960 ( 2 2,300 1,660
)
19.10
20
1% 1996/97 3
7,000
19.11

30
114

27

12

6 5
( 1996 629 555 )

250
(629 555 x 9,500 x 1% x
12 x 35

20

1 8,700
( 3 7 4 x 0 . 5 %)

10

2.5

>262

12A

207
( 1 9 9 6 /9 7 )

1 9 ( 1 9 9 6 /9 7 )

30 *

35

75

20

3 7,000
( 3 7 4 x 1 %)

>9,000

226

>145

226

>4 0 7

30

28

19.12

19.13

3% 5%

19.14
1997/98 302
2,013 3000 ( 15%
) 30 2,000
40 3,000 ( 1.5% 2%)
9,000 2 ( 3% 5%)

19.15

10

20.

20.1

1.25% 1.5% ( 13)

10

29

13

0.75% 1%

0.5%

20.2

20.3


20.4





1996
200 30

20.5

30

20.6

A

20.7
1.25% 1.5%
( 14)

14

14

0.75% 1%

0.5%

2%

!
20%
!

4%

10%

3 4 3 5 RP 0 6 /P LC

20.8

30 9,500 (1996 )
3 ( 1998 4
11 3 )
10 15

11

31

20.9

7,600
80%
600 ( 6%)

15

3 + [
= 68 x 3
]
= 204
= (1% x 9,500 x 12 ) + [3,370 * +
(3,370 x 20% x 3 )]
= 1,140 + 5,392
= 6,532

**10
10
= 50 x 10
= 37 x 10 = 500
= 370

574

= (0.5% x 9,500 x 12 )
= 570
7,602

* 3,370
** 5 0

21.

21.1

407 262 114

30

3% 5%

32

21.2

1.25% 1.5%

21.3
1.25% 1.5%

21.4

33

22.

22.1

22.2

( )

22.3

23.

23.1

2016
5.6% -6.4% 20%

34

23.2

20%

23.3

24.

24.1

24.2

35

25.

25.1

12 18

25.2

36

26.

26.1
( ) (
)

250 65
1996/97
226
26.2

( 25% 30%)

26.3

9,000
26.4

26.5

37

27.

27.1

27.2

27.3

12

100%

27.4

12

38

27.5

27.6

(
)

28.

28.1

39

1.

Marie L. Lassey, William R. Lassey and Martin J. Jinks, Health Care Systems
Around the Word, Characteristics, Issues Reforms, Prentice Hall.

2.

China News, 13 November 1998.

3.

Central News Agency Central News Agency, 5 January 1999.

4.

5.

1998 1 22 (RP06/PLC)

6.

1998 6 24 (RP08/PLC)

7.

1998 6 24 (RP09/PLC)

8.

1998 6 24 (RP10/PLC).

9.

1998 6 24 (RP11/PLC).

10. 1999 7 9 (RP12/PLC).

40

Amy Kwok

#6
(Special Report #6: Financial Projection and Simulation Model)

(Ross Matthews)

41