A

.15/260 =
Cumulative .10/sqr(260) =
Probability

Day
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45

Random
Number
between
0 and 1
0.00928148
0.14332056
0.89635937
0.53545999
0.06362321
0.23617484
0.0217314
0.60223143
0.05511502
0.89493617
0.91068551
0.64202462
0.00266705
0.65739219
0.8167559
0.60917703
0.9825893
0.46936068
0.15267893
0.37538513
0.27593024
0.84918821
0.3205917
0.32901555
0.96002288
0.76672888
0.28062146
0.59143293
0.98235601
0.43423604
0.19198402
0.6606056
0.3602586
0.87139636
0.33224177
0.95818933
0.50434757
0.04335963
0.15234054
0.60671877
0.12565156
0.94992038
0.84360435
0.27589732
0.1120202

Normal
Random
Returns
-0.014023707
-0.006031349
0.008398197
0.001128993
-0.008881365
-0.003880137
-0.011946295
0.002184106
-0.009328587
0.008349436
0.008918618
0.002833758
-0.016702594
0.00309102
0.006177847
0.002296038
0.013665883
0.000100209
-0.00578012
-0.001392903
-0.003113032
0.006983405
-0.00231341
-0.002168211
0.011436402
0.005092779
-0.003026339
0.002011104
0.013632447
-0.000450049
-0.004822513
0.00314535
-0.001641875
0.007603969
-0.002113002
0.01130677
0.000644589
-0.010046799
-0.005789022
0.00225636
-0.006537872
0.010773597
0.006837189
-0.003113643
-0.006963729

0.0005769 Mean
0.0062017 SD

Value
of
Investment
0.9859763
0.9800295
0.98826
0.9893757
0.9805887
0.9767839
0.965115
0.9672229
0.9582001
0.9662005
0.9748177
0.9775801
0.9612519
0.9642232
0.97018
0.9724076
0.9856964
0.9857952
0.9800972
0.978732
0.9756851
0.9824988
0.9802258
0.9781005
0.9892864
0.9943247
0.9913155
0.9933091
1.0068504
1.0063972
1.0015439
1.0046941
1.0030445
1.0106716
1.0085361
1.0199394
1.0205968
1.0103431
1.0044942
1.0067607
1.0001786
1.0109541
1.0178662
1.0146969
1.0076308

1 If Return Is
Positive
0 otherwise
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0

46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

0.62224529
0.33905299
0.75681168
0.06775215
0.19402743
0.85944858
0.94859581
0.52227467
0.94655172
0.33362265
0.63072515
0.20062285
0.07017839
0.20075813
0.00646311
0.08213606
0.9221118
0.77311528
0.72219767
0.30787872
0.96494389
0.56372149
0.73415717
0.53254533
0.08187644
0.66031505
0.22435187
0.18463447
0.84981897
0.80869661
0.06467968
0.66974754
0.59719251
0.50489184
0.77941582
0.13950189
0.79778805
0.08656436
0.94326483
0.60148988
0.38768434
0.87763103
0.05477444
0.49669786
0.90299495
0.15423176
0.64731067
0.59549999
0.29835864
0.19722723
0.77598336
0.63724184
0.89651843
0.96395497
0.68713401

0.002508198
-0.001997134
0.004894109
-0.008680996
-0.004776258
0.007261796
0.010694871
0.000923465
0.010576488
-0.002089437
0.00264707
-0.00462895
-0.008567624
-0.004625959
-0.014839904
-0.008049027
0.009380247
0.005223201
0.004232351
-0.002535611
0.011809969
0.001571871
0.004455947
0.001083516
-0.008059657
0.00314043
-0.004121498
-0.004991426
0.007000146
0.005991987
-0.008829158
0.003301019
0.002103231
0.000653051
0.005353915
-0.006137037
0.005747895
-0.007871483
0.010393436
0.002172188
-0.0011928
0.007791326
-0.00934759
0.000525664
0.008632202
-0.005739435
0.00292179
0.002076124
-0.002704646
-0.004704418
0.005282444
0.002754498
0.008403676
0.011731601
0.003601981

1.0101582
1.0081408
1.0130747
1.0042802
0.9994835
1.0067416
1.0175085
1.0184482
1.0292198
1.0270693
1.029788
1.0250212
1.0162392
1.0115381
0.996527
0.9885059
0.9977783
1.0029899
1.0072349
1.004681
1.0165462
1.0181441
1.0226809
1.023789
1.0155376
1.0187268
1.0145281
1.0094642
1.0165306
1.0226216
1.0135927
1.0169386
1.0190775
1.019743
1.0252026
1.0189109
1.0247675
1.0167011
1.0272681
1.0294995
1.0282715
1.0362831
1.0265964
1.027136
1.0360025
1.0300564
1.033066
1.0352108
1.0324109
1.027554
1.032982
1.0358273
1.0445321
1.0567861
1.0605927

1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1

101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155

0.03243781
0.58823375
0.1615079
0.51434764
0.76066332
0.62841527
0.09731157
0.49349862
0.86632711
0.39292037
0.63437553
0.94113935
0.504963
0.92792475
0.87005874
0.70842881
0.01473278
0.32329352
0.1922833
0.53458313
0.05219478
0.58191894
0.53566047
0.87755799
0.49350593
0.05100298
0.71016
0.80088715
0.238163
0.44932671
0.71858829
0.05083622
0.06233988
0.30647688
0.92043796
0.68328089
0.72543962
0.95217649
0.04422175
0.78266791
0.68097798
0.57729943
0.28769165
0.98057824
0.49797705
0.45180053
0.66556505
0.97694823
0.35266525
0.69505898
0.30674722
0.3240531
0.1491998
0.20964886
0.45703724

-0.0108726
0.00196007
-0.005552309
0.000800098
0.004970732
0.002609141
-0.007467139
0.000475924
0.007456231
-0.00110818
0.002707168
0.010279471
0.000654157
0.009635071
0.0075646
0.003980661
-0.012926002
-0.002266671
-0.00481572
0.001115308
-0.009494649
0.001859605
0.001132122
0.007789093
0.000476038
-0.009564545
0.004011991
0.005816414
-0.003840214
-0.000212903
0.004165805
-0.009574428
-0.008945698
-0.002560354
0.009309562
0.003534691
0.004292483
0.0109116
-0.009989137
0.005422221
0.00349464
0.001786325
-0.002896994
0.013389344
0.000545551
-0.000174147
0.003229592
0.012946543
-0.001768192
0.00374152
-0.002555579
-0.00225356
-0.005872283
-0.004431985
-9.22E-05

1.0490613
1.0511175
1.0452814
1.0461177
1.0513177
1.0540607
1.0461899
1.0466878
1.0544921
1.0533236
1.0561751
1.067032
1.06773
1.0780177
1.0861724
1.0904961
1.0764004
1.0739605
1.0687886
1.0699807
1.0598216
1.0617924
1.0629945
1.0712743
1.0717842
1.0615331
1.065792
1.071991
1.0678744
1.067647
1.0720946
1.0618299
1.0523311
1.0496368
1.0594084
1.0631531
1.0677167
1.0793672
1.0685852
1.0743793
1.0781339
1.0800598
1.0769309
1.0913503
1.0919457
1.0917555
1.0952814
1.1094615
1.1074998
1.1116435
1.1088026
1.1063039
1.0998074
1.094933
1.0948321

0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210

0.32721408
0.91868475
0.60252495
0.10351053
0.92619031
0.53562166
0.63227076
0.88295096
0.50660576
0.9395135
0.49052736
0.27121694
0.21523343
0.08937805
0.04427409
0.01599368
0.34494152
0.34926856
0.73316286
0.42063413
0.6145807
0.18697058
0.95405317
0.85398641
0.79104607
0.08721568
0.81037863
0.47709312
0.84529411
0.79040139
0.58575172
0.92894664
0.66487126
0.3826135
0.50696513
0.72532168
0.46766223
0.72420346
0.3149535
0.01203303
0.8839846
0.10605077
0.80363789
0.69439249
0.70570339
0.18493775
0.29320912
0.77510579
0.2747683
0.75375633
0.06320727
0.50520829
0.05107579
0.91784184
0.14387414

-0.002199133
0.009236722
0.002188826
-0.007248679
0.009557444
0.001131516
0.002672492
0.007956564
0.000679698
0.010194457
0.000429723
-0.003200865
-0.004312614
-0.007762177
-0.009985666
-0.012723614
-0.001897683
-0.001825009
0.004437168
-0.000665084
0.002383507
-0.004937293
0.011030422
0.007111954
0.005600969
-0.007845948
0.006030372
0.000220691
0.006881067
0.005587067
0.00192054
0.009681479
0.003217778
-0.001275066
0.000685286
0.004290289
7.37217E-05
0.004269513
-0.002411482
-0.013415165
0.007989283
-0.007161903
0.005877771
0.003729724
0.003931512
-0.004984374
-0.002797097
0.005264272
-0.003134616
0.004833793
-0.008902105
0.000657971
-0.009560238
0.009202123
-0.006016186

1.0924244
1.1025148
1.104928
1.0969188
1.1074025
1.1086555
1.1116184
1.1204631
1.1212247
1.1326549
1.1331417
1.1295146
1.1246435
1.1159138
1.1047706
1.090714
1.0886441
1.0866574
1.091479
1.0907531
1.0933529
1.0879547
1.0999553
1.1077782
1.1139828
1.1052425
1.1119076
1.112153
1.1198058
1.1260622
1.1282248
1.1391477
1.1428132
1.1413561
1.1421382
1.1470383
1.1471229
1.1520206
1.1492425
1.1338252
1.1428836
1.1346984
1.1413679
1.1456249
1.150129
1.1443963
1.1411953
1.1472029
1.1436068
1.1491348
1.1389051
1.1396544
1.1287591
1.139146
1.1322927

0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0

211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260

0.17304963
0.41112984
0.1473534
0.19638659
0.3242832
0.14999036
0.46509816
0.25078049
0.34703184
0.90079548
0.98237488
0.30749941
0.66063295
0.55208496
0.41627469
0.1559073
0.59095817
0.73035904
0.02113364
0.48443435
0.53707871
0.86109652
0.951681
0.96318937
0.88672311
0.6187076
0.30406767
0.6992126
0.56922473
0.03562805
0.85517592
0.05400285
0.92576078
0.25706315
0.13315844
0.78682561
0.15887287
0.93315902
0.35786009
0.66098836
0.22062125
0.6951256
0.59439888
0.15439224
0.25042097
0.58764298
0.33759115
0.17302582
0.86872304
0.7280582

-0.005266415
-0.000816215
-0.005921778
-0.004723223
-0.002249591
-0.005851216
3.37182E-05
-0.003590965
-0.001862534
0.008553377
0.013635138
-0.002542301
0.003145814
0.001389033
-0.000734308
-0.005695838
0.002003525
0.004384403
-0.012018511
0.000334953
0.001154262
0.007307776
0.010880853
0.01167213
0.008076979
0.002450551
-0.002602995
0.003815295
0.001658633
-0.010610427
0.007144259
-0.00939099
0.009538436
-0.003469347
-0.006317046
0.005510413
-0.005619425
0.009878383
-0.001681673
0.003151835
-0.00419914
0.0037427
0.002058505
-0.005735246
-0.003597973
0.001950656
-0.002021925
-0.005266992
0.007525567
0.004341308
0.152227599
Return for the
year

1.1263296
1.1254103
1.1187458
1.1134618
1.1109569
1.1044565
1.1044937
1.1005275
1.0984777
1.1078734
1.1229794
1.1201245
1.1236482
1.125209
1.1243827
1.1179784
1.1202183
1.1251298
1.1116074
1.1119798
1.1132633
1.1213988
1.1336005
1.1468321
1.156095
1.1589281
1.1559114
1.1603215
1.1622461
1.1499142
1.1581294
1.1472535
1.1581965
1.1541783
1.1468873
1.1532071
1.1467267
1.1580545
1.1561071
1.1597509
1.154881
1.1592033
1.1615896
1.1549276
1.1507722
1.1530169
1.1506856
1.144625
1.1532389
1.1582455

0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0.569230769
Fraction of daily
returns that
are positive