Date: Mar.

10, 2012 The Coming Conflict In The Middle East A label defined a dictator by any other definition is still a falsehood. President (self-appointed) Assad of Syria has labeled the dissidents in his country as terrorists. Thats the new world-speak word for enemies of the state, or being against the status quo. In 1968, Mayor Daley called the rioting protesters at the Democratic Convention pinkos, the anti-American label of the day. Daley also called Sen. Ribicoff (D-CT) who opposed Daleys tactic with the police, a Jew son of a bitch on live camera. Daley was on record as saying, ...that an order be issued by [the police] immediately to shoot to kill any arsonist or anyone with a Molotov cocktail in his hand, because they're potential murderers, and to shoot to maim or cripple anyone looting." Assad is doing much the same thing but with much bigger weapons. Faced with rising disapproval and protest in his country, perhaps as a result of the on-going Arab-spring, Assad has simply taken to bombing, torturing, executing his citizens or anyone who is in the way; women, babies, and children included. And then those who are wounded he denies medical aid preferring to target makeshift hospitals. Six times the UN has tried to get the world powers to censure this activity. Twelve times the League of Arab Nations has sent observers to try and stop the violence. All these attempts have been rebuffed. In the UN, Syrias only, and I mean only, ally is Russia. Whats Russias game? Oil and Irans nuclear program. How are they linked? Heres how. Israel and the US are opposed to allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapons program. Israel has, on occasion, targeted Irans scientists and facilities with spy-killings and bombings. Israel is rightly concerned that Iran will have a nuclear bomb capability as Iran is on record as saying Israel should not exist. However, lets turn to Zbigniew Brzezinski, the ex-US National Security chief and now advising this Administration (and the previous one, but no one remembers that). What are his credentials for assessing dangers in such areas of turmoil? When Gorbachev was under house arrest and the coup was underway in Moscow, Brzezinski was an advisor to ABC. On air he was asked how dire this change was for the USA. His response so shocked Diane Sawyer and team that he was not consulted again for 5 days. He said this, Do you see any aircraft over Moscow? No? Then the coup has failed and will be over in five days or less. While the rest of the world was certain the new Moscow leaders would rain terror across the world, Brzezinski was proved right. ABC somewhat sheepishly had him back on and quasiapologized.

Last week Brzezinski was quite clear on TV again, he explained that Iran has no delivery system, no miniaturization system, to make a deliverable atomic bomb. Even if they make one, they cannot deliver it effectively. And even if they could, an atomic weapon unleashed on Israel would kill as many Egyptians, Lebanese, Jordanians and Palestinians. This is hardly a credible threat to the region. Did he think then that such a weapons-program is not a danger? His answer was classic Brzezinski. He explained that everything that could be done with sanctions should be done and unifying the regions Arab nations (not to mention Pakistan, India and China) against a bomb program should be encouraged. Why then is Russia backing Iran and Syria? Firstly, Russia is exporting some $2billion in nuclear power plant technology and equipment to Iran. Russia sees nothing wrong with that. Even if the residue from those peaceful reactors could be transformed into bomb fuel, thats a different program, one they say they do not support in any way. As for Syria, for the Russians, thats a two-step with Iran. Russias oil is more expensive to extract than Syrian and Iranian crude. Russia is also the largest European and Asian exporter of natural gas. Russia borrowed from China (bonds) and they are paying that back as quickly as possible. If Iran and Syria have sanctions running against them, oil prices will stay high, paying off Russias budget deficit while Russia is strengthening ties with allies. If Syria were to fall, as Libya did, Russia, which is not part of OPEC, would find that OPEC was once again controlling the price of oil. Currently, the USA has a hand at the OPEC table via Iraq, Libya, Tunisia, etc. In short, once we got control of any part of OPEC, Russia needed to ensure they had cards to match. As 500,000 people in Homs in Syria are bombed back to the stone age, it is worth thinking the price we, as humanity, pay for stable oil prices. However, like Mayor Daly, Assads time is coming and with his fall from power, Russia may become more desperate to control the worlds premier commodity. Some would argue that new drilling in the US would alleviate this crisis. Perhaps, but only if such drilling was tied to removing the puppet strings we and the Europeans have attached to the new free countries rich in oil. Does anyone in their right mind think the oil execs will agree to that, or the guys in Congress getting fat donations? In the end, their greed and manipulation may push us all to the brink in the Middle East once again.