DESIGN MANUAL FOR ROADS AND BRIDGES

VOLUME 12 TRAFFIC APPRAISAL OF ROADS SCHEMES SECTION 1 TRAFFIC APPRAISAL MANUAL

PART 1 THE APPLICATION OF TRAFFIC APPRAISAL TO TRUNK ROADS SCHEMES AMENDMENT NO. 1
SUMMARY These are consequential amendments to the Traffic Appraisal Manual arising from the publication of the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges, Volume 12, Section 2, Part 3 - The National Trip End Model. INSTRUCTIONS FOR USE 1. Remove existing contents page from Volume 12 dated February 1997 and insert page dated November 1997. Insert the replacement pages listed on the amendment sheet (Amendment no. 1), remove the corresponding existing pages which are superseded by this amendment. Archive this sheet as appropriate

2.

3.

Note: A quarterly index with a full set of Volume Contents Pages is available separately from the Stationery Office Ltd.

November 1997

DESIGN MANUAL FOR ROADS AND BRIDGES

VOLUME 12 TRAFFIC APPRAISAL OF ROADS SCHEMES SECTION 1 TRAFFIC APPRAISAL MANUAL

PART 1 THE APPLICATION OF TRAFFIC APPRAISAL TO TRUNK ROAD SCHEMES

SUMMARY

The Department of Transport Traffic Appraisal Manual (TAM) sets out the recommended practice for the appraisal of trunk roads schemes. This document introduces the TAM to the DMRB as Volume 12. DMRB 12.1.1 is composed of two parts: an introduction to the TAM which specifies which parts of the August 1991 reprint of the TAM are to be retained and the Manual itself, described as an Annex to the Introduction .

INSTRUCTIONS FOR USE

This is a new document to be incorporated into the Manual. 1. Insert DMRB 12.1.1 into Volume 12 at Section 1 in Binder 12. Remove the parts of the existing TAM which have been withdrawn. Check that the remaining sections are dated August 1991 and then insert in Binder 12 after DMRB 12.1.1. Archive this sheet as appropriate.

2.

Note: A binder for this Volume (12) and a full set of Volume Contents Pages are available separately from HMSO. A reprint of the August 1991 edition of the TAM is also available separately from HMSO.

May 1996

DESIGN MANUAL FOR ROADS AND BRIDGES

VOLUME 12 - TRAFFIC APPRAISAL OF ROADS SCHEMES

Section 1
Part 1

Traffic Appraisal Manual

The Application of Traffic Appraisal to Trunk Road Schemes

VOLUME 12a (continuation binder)

Section 2
Part 1 Part 2 Part 3

Traffic Appraisal Advice

Traffic Appraisal in Urban Areas Induced Traffic Appraisal The National Trip End Model

November 1997

DESIGN MANUAL FOR ROADS AND BRIDGES

Incorporating Amendment no. 1 dated November 1997

THE HIGHWAYS AGENCY THE SCOTTISH OFFICE DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT THE WELSH OFFICE Y SWYDDFA GYMREIG THE DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT FOR NORTHERN IRELAND

The application of traffic appraisal to trunk road schemes

Summary:

These amendments to the Traffic Appraisal Manual arise from the publication of the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges, Volume 12, Section 2, Part 3 -The National Trip End Model

Volume 12 Section 1 Part 1

Traffic Appraisal Manual Registration of Amendments

REGISTRATION OF AMENDMENTS

Amendment No

Page No

Initials & Date of incorporation of amendments

Amendment No

Page No

Initials & Date of incorporation of amendments

One Nov 1997

Part 1 replace: header page Part 1 replace: 1/1 to 1/6

Part 1 Annex remove: all of chapter 4 insert: withdrawn header page

Part 1 Annex remove: all of chapter 7 insert: withdrawn header page

Part 1 Annex replace: chapter 12 header page 12/3, 12/4 12/13, 12/14

Part 1 Annex remove: Data Appendix Dl

Part 1 Annex replace: Data Appendices header page

November 1997

Registration of Amendments REGISTRATION OF AMENDMENTS

Amend No Page No Signature & Date of incorporation of amendments Amend No Page No

Volume 12 Section 1 Part 1

Signature & Date of incorporation of amendments

May 1996

DESIGN MANUAL FOR ROADS AND BRIDGES

____________________________________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________

VOLUME 12

TRAFFIC APPRAISAL OF ROAD SCHEMES

SECTION 1

TRAFFIC APPRAISAL MANUAL ________________________________

PART 1 THE APPLICATION OF TRAFFIC APPRAISAL TO TRUNK ROAD SCHEMES

CONTENTS

Chapter 1. Introduction and Contents 2. Enquiries Annex Chapters 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 & 8 to 19 Annex Data Appendix D13

Annex General Appendices A1, A17, A20

November 1997

Volume 12 Section 1 Part 1 Traffic Appraisal Manual

Chapter 1 Introduction and Contents

1
1.1

Introduction
The Traffic Appraisal Manual (TAM) setting out the recommended practice for the appraisal of trunk road schemes was first published in 1981 and last reprinted in August 1991. The manual relates specifically to trunk roads in England, although in practice the document has been used as a reference document by other organisations and overseeing Departments. The manual covers procedures applicable in rural, inter-urban and urban locations, with the predominant emphasis being towards the first two of these road types. The Traffic Appraisal Manual is now available as an Annex to this document. It has been reprinted unchanged from the August 1991 reprint apart from the withdrawal of a number of Chapters, Tables and Appendices as set out below. References to TAM and to this document are therefore interchangeable. For example TAM sub-section 6.2 dated August 1991 is identical to sub-section 6.2 of this Annex (DMRB v12.1.1 Annex ss6.2 - August 1991). Complementary Advice on Traffic Appraisal

1.2

1.3

Advice on Traffic Appraisal in Urban Areas has been published to extend the general methods set out in TAM and its Scottish counterpart STEAM to the urban setting. This was published as Volume 12 Section 2 Part I of the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB v12.2.1). The most recent speed-flow relationships are described in its Appendix E. These supersede Appendix A9 (COBA9 speed-flow relationships) of the August 1991 TAM, which was therefore withdrawn in May 1996. A volume of Guidance on the modelling of Induced Traffic, arising from the 1994 SACTRA report "Trunk Roads and the Generation of Traffic" was published in February 1997 as DMRB v12.2.2. TA46 - Traffic flow ranges for use in the assessment of new rural roads - was also published in February 1997, as DMRB v 5.1.3. Annex D to this document defines the concept of Congestion Reference Flows. The National Trip End Model, and its associated planning data and car ownership forecasts, are now described in DMRB v12.2.3. Chapters 4 and 7 of TAM have therefore now been withdrawn, as have subsection 12.2 and example 12.1 of Chapter 12, and Appendix Dl. (Appendices D2 to D5 were withdrawn in May 1996). These documents between them supersede the interim HETA guidance notes described in the May 1996 update. In the longer term it is envisaged that other Chapters, Tables and Appendices of TAM will be replaced by advice published in other Sections of DMRB Volume 12. Superseded sections of TAM

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

The use of national (rather than local) expansion factors for converting short period counts to AADT and other periods is now no longer recommended. Consequently Appendix D14 has been withdrawn. Local Automatic Traffic Count data should be used instead. Highways Economics Note No 2 was printed as DMRB Volume 13 Section 2, superseding Appendix A8 of the August 1991 TAM (and Annex II of COBA9). Appendix A8 has therefore been withdrawn. The ROADWAY suite of computer software and TRAFFICQ computer program are no longer supplied or supported technically by the owning Department. However, some of their sub-routines are still in use. Hence, details of these sub-routines are retained in Appendix A20, although the more general description of ROADWAY in Chapter 20 and Appendix A 13 on the arrangements for obtaining TRAFFICQ have been withdrawn from the reprinted TAM.

1.9

1.10

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Contents
1. 2. Introduction and Contents Enquiries THE DEPARTMENTS GENERAL APPROACH TO TRAFFIC APPRAISAL

Annex CHAPTER 1 :

1.1 BACKGROUND 1.2 SCOPE 1.3 REVISIONS TO DATA & METHODS 1.4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS REFERENCE - Annex CHAPTER 1 Annex CHAPTER 2 : CARRYING OUT A TRAFFIC STUDY

2.1 INTRODUCTION 2.2 REVIEW OF THE MAJOR FEATURES IN THE MANUAL 2.3 DEFINING THE PROBLEM 2.4 THE STEPS IN CARRYING OUT A TRAFFIC STUDY REFERENCES - Annex CHAPTER 2 Annex CHAPTER 3 : 3.1 3.2 3.3 DEFINING THE STUDY AREA

CRITERIA DEFINING A STUDY ZONING SYSTEM & NETWORK DEFINING A SCHEME CORDON WITHDRAWN (was EXISTING DATA SOURCES) ALTERNATIVE MODEL FORMS AND THEIR APPLICABILITY

Annex CHAPTER 4 :

Annex CHAPTER 5 :

5.1 GENERAL 5.2 SIMPLE GROWTH FACTOR BASED TECHNIQUES 5.3 LOW COST TRAFFIC ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES 5.4 NETWORK MODELS 5.5 DYNAMIC TRAFFIC MODELS 5.6 SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDED MODEL FORMS 5.7 SELECTION OF TIME PERIOD FOR APPRAISAL REFERENCES - Annex CHAPTER 5

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Chapter 1 Introduction and Contents

Annex CHAPTER 6 : 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.10 6.11 6.12

SURVEY METHODOLOGY & ANALYSIS

CONDUCT OF SURVEYS & SURVEY DESIGN AUTOMATIC TRAFFIC COUNTS MANUAL CLASSIFIED COUNTS AXLE LOAD SURVEYS ROADSIDE INTERVIEWING HOME INTERVIEWS PUBLIC TRANSPORT SURVEYS REGISTRATION NUMBER SURVEYS JOURNEY TIME MEASUREMENT AND DELAYS FACTORING DATA SURVEY DATA PROCESSING SOFTWARE THE APPROXIMATE ESTIMATION OF ERRORS IN THE FITTED GRAVITY MODEL (WHITTAKERS APPROXIMATION) REFERENCES - Annex CHAPTER 6 Annex CHAPTER 7 : WITHDRAWN (was NATIONAL SUB MODELS) THE PRODUCTION AND CALIBRATION OF A BASE YEAR TRIP MATRIX

Annex CHAPTER 8 :

8.1 GENERAL 8.2 MATRICES FORMED BY EXPANDING OBSERVATIONS 8.3 FITTING SYNTHETIC TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODELS OF THE GRAVITY TYPE 8.4 THE USE OF MODEL ELEMENTS IMPORTED FROM OTHER STUDIES 8.5 ESTIMATING MATRICES FROM TRAFFIC COUNTS 8.6 DISAGGREGATION TECHNIQUES 8.7 MERGING DATA FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES 8.8 MATRIX MANIPULATION REFERENCES - Annex CHAPTER 8 Annex CHAPTER 9 : ASSIGNMENT

9.1 PRINCIPLES OF ASSIGNMENT 9.2 FORM OF ROUTE CHOICE COEFFICIENTS 9.3 LINK SPEEDS 9.4 MODEL STRUCTURE 9.5 ASSIGNMENT METHODS 9.6 IMPLEMENTING THE ASSIGNMENT MODEL REFERENCES - Annex CHAPTER 9

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Annex CHAPTER 10

: THE ASSESSMENT OF ERRORS IN THE BASE YEAR

10.1 INTRODUCTION 10.2 ERRORS 10.3 ESTIMATING THE ACCURACY OF GROUND COUNTS 10.4 ESTIMATING THE ACCURACY OF TRIP MATRICES 10.5 ESTIMATING THE ACCURACY OF ASSIGNMENTS 10.6 USING THE BASE YEAR ERROR ESTIMATES 10.7 USING ACCURACY ESTIMATES IN MODEL DESIGN REFERENCES- Annex CHAPTER 10 Annex CHAPTER 11 : MODEL VALIDATION

11.1 INTRODUCTION 11.2 VALIDATION OF THE NATIONAL TRIP END MODELS 11.3 VALIDATION OF THE NATIONAL NETWORK 11.4 THE LOCAL MODEL VALIDATION REPORT 11.5 VALIDATION OF THE NATIONAL MODEL OF LONG DISTANCE MOVEMENTS REFERENCES - Annex CHAPTER 11 Annex CHAPTER 12 12.1 12.2 : FORECASTING

THE DEPARTMENTS VIEW OF THE FUTURE WITHDRAWN (was THE NATIONAL ROAD TRAFFIC FORECAST) 12.3 LOCAL FORECASTING PROCEDURES FOR USE IN TRUNK ROAD APPRAISAL 12.4 THE TREATMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TRAFFIC FORECASTING 12.5 LOCAL FORECASTS AND NATIONAL CONSISTENCY REFERENCES - Annex CHAPTER 12 Annex CHAPTER 13 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 : OPERATIONAL APPRAISAL

GENERAL EXAMINING THE OPERATIONAL FEATURES OF A SCHEME THE TOOLS OF OPERATIONAL APPRAISAL THE USE OF CORDON ISOLATION TO EXAMINE CONGESTED NETWORKS JUNCTION APPRAISAL PREPARATION OF TRAFFIC FIGURES FOR USE WITH OTHER DEPARTMENTAL PUBLICATIONS REFERENCES - Annex CHAPTER 13

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Chapter 1 Introduction and Contents

Annex CHAPTER 14

: ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL APPRAISAL IN RELATION TO TRAFFIC APPRAISAL

14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5

INTRODUCTION TRAFFIC APPRAISAL AND FIXED TRIP MATRIX ECONOMIC EVALUATION (COBA) TRAFFIC APPRAISAL AND VARIABLE TRIP MATRIX ECONOMIC EVALUATION TRAFFIC APPRAISAL AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF URBAN SCHEMES TRAFFIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL APPRAISAL : PRESENTING THE RESULTS OF A TRAFFIC APPRAISAL

Annex CHAPTER 15 15.1 15.2

INTRODUCTION GENERAL ADVICE : BEFORE & AFTER MONITORING

Annex CHAPTER 16 16.1 16.2 16.3

INTRODUCTION CATALOGUING THE BEFORE PREDICTIONS THE AFTER COUNTS : ESTIMATING TRAFFIC UNDER MODAL COMPETITION

Annex CHAPTER 17

17.1 GENERAL 17.2 APPRAISING COMPETITION FROM OTHER MODES 17.3 SIMPLE TECHNIQUES FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF MODAL SPLIT 17.4 MORE COMPLEX MODAL SPLIT MODELS 17.5 LIAISON WITH OFFICERS FROM OTHER TRANSPORT AUTHORITIES REFERENCES - Annex CHAPTER 17 Annex CHAPTER 18 : APPRAISING TRUNK ROAD SCHEMES IN URBAN AREAS

18.1 GENERAL 18.2 THE COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH 18.3 URBAN TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES 18.4 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT AND APPRAISAL IN URBAN AREAS REFERENCES - Annex CHAPTER 18 Annex CHAPTER 19 19.1 19.2 : THE APPRAISAL OF SMALLER TRUNK ROAD SCHEMES

DEFINITION OF A SMALLER SCHEME THE APPRAISAL OF SMALL SCHEMES : WITHDRAWN (was COMPUTER SOFTWARE)

Annex CHAPTER 20

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DATA APPENDICES APPENDIX D1 : APPENDIX D2 : APPENDIX D3 : WITHDRAWN (was OTHER DATA SOURCES) WITHDRAWN (was LIST OF CONTACTS) WITHDRAWN (was PLANNING DATA PROJECTIONS -DEFINITIONS & SOURCES) WITHDRAWN (was DERIVATION OF 1981-BASED PLANNING DATA PROJECTIONS) WITHDRAWN (was COUNTY LEVEL TABULATION OF PROJECTED TRIP END GROWTH FACTORS) SAMPLING WITHDRAWN (was FACTORING)

APPENDIX D4 :

APPENDIX D5 :

APPENDIX D13 : APPENDIX D14 :

GENERAL APPENDICES APPENDIX 1 : A SHORT INTRODUCTION TO THE STATISTICAL TERMS USED IN THE MANUAL WITHDRAWN (was STANDARD ERRORS OF COEFFICIENTS OF TRIP END MODELS) WITHDRAWN (was HIGHWAYS ECONOMICS NOTE NO. 2 (1989) VALUES OF TIME AND VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS replaced by DMRB v13 s2) WITHDRAWN (was COBA9 SPEED - FLOW CURVES replaced by DMRB v12 s2 Part1 Appendix E) WITHDRAWN (was ARRANGEMENTS FOR OBTAINING TRAFFICQ) MODE CHOICE EQUATIONS COMPUTER SOFTWARE

APPENDIX 7 :

APPENDIX 8 :

APPENDIX 9 :

APPENDIX 13 :

APPENDIX 17 : APPENDIX 20 : Summary

The Traffic Appraisal Manual (TAM) sets out the recommended practice for the appraisal of trunk road schemes. Parts are withdrawn and the rest of the August 1991 reprint is reprinted unchanged in the Annex to this document.

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Volume 12 Section 1 Part 1 Traffic Appraisal Manual

Chapter 2 Enquiries

2.

Enquiries

All technical enquiries or comments on the Manual should be sent in writing as appropriate to:

Head of Highways Economics and Traffic Appraisal Division (HETA) Department of Transport Great Minster House 76 Marsham Street London SW1P 4DR

T WORSLEY Head of Highways Economics and Traffic Appraisal Division

The Deputy Chief Engineer The Scottish Office Development Department National Roads Directorate Victoria Quay Edinburgh EH6 6QQ

J INNES Director of Roads

Head of Roads Engineering (Construction) Division Welsh Office Y Swyddfa Gymreig Government Buildings Ty Glas Road Llanishen Cardiff CF4 5PL

B HAWKER Head of Roads Engineering (Construction) Division

Technical Director Department of the Environment for Northern Ireland Road Service Headquarters Clarence Court 10-18 Adelaide Street Belfast BT2 8GB

V CRAWFORD Technical Director

May 1996

Traffic Appraisal Manual

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