Modelling and monitoring mountain permafrost in the Russian Altay Mountains

Summary
The Russian Altay Mountains an area containing discontinuous and continuous permafrost is scattered with thousands of archaeological monuments dating back as far as 4000 BC. Among them are the remarkable Scythian kurgans. These are mounds, compromising coarse blocks overlaying a burial chamber. Their unique composition enhances the temperature lowering effect in winter time thanks to additional convective cooling caused by free air flow in the pores of the coarse stone cover. This effect, together with their location in permafrost, creates excellent preservation conditions, enabling several excavations of ice-mummies with intact skin and clothes. A possible global change however, endangers these mummies, as a warming climate would lead to an altitudinal shift in permafrost zones. Therefore, in order to take preservation measures, it is necessary to have a detailed image of the local permafrost conditions, and a more thoroughly understanding and quantification of the convective cooling effect.

Introduction
At this moment the first result of the project are getting together. One year of data was successfully downloaded last summer, giving a first glimpse on the thermal regime beneath different landcovers and topographic situations in the Russian Altay Mountains. The results clearly show the cooling effect of the kurgans and the dramatic impact of snow cover dynamics on the ground thermal regime and landcover patterns. Not only the temperature data is being processed, also the Spot imagery is subject to preprocessing and classification at this moment of speaking. The ground data, gathered last summer, is used to geometrically correct the image, to serve as training pixels, and make validation possible. Also the modelling part makes a good progress. A good correlation was showed between the interpolated land surface temperature values and the ground surface temperatures. However further research is needed to examine this relationship more thoroughly.

Overall Project Goals

Estimate the current permafrost distribution in the Russian Altay Mountains: The first year of ground data just arrived, enabling the creation of a permafrost distribution model. However 2 years of data are necessary, to obtain reliable models and making validation possible. (End: December 2010) Calculate the current ground thermal regime of the different kurgans in the area, regarding their topographic position and dimensions Also for this goal, 2 year of data is needed to make reliable estimations. The first data set clearly shows the lowering effect of the kurgans, and their ability to react very fast to changing air temperatures. Last summer extra kurgan installations were made, which will give us a more profound image about their thermal regime. (End: December 2010)

Calculate the evolution of the permafrost area during the last 30 years and determine future scenarios based on IPCC-climate prognosis for the 21st century. This requires first a reliable and validated current distribution. (End: December 2011) Assess the vulnerability of the kurgans in the area, and calculate their defrost-point. Last step in the project (End: December 2011)

Satellite Image Analysis and Findings

Ground Temperature Results In the 2009 summer, data from 18 HOBO data-loggers and 78 iButtons was successfully downloaded and stored in a database. A first glimpse shows a big variety of temperature profiles, related to their topographical position, surface cover and thermal conductivity of the soil layers. Below for example, the contrast between the surface temperature in a kurgan and its surroundings is presented. More trends and a deeper study of their effect however, will be examined during the upcoming processingsteps.

Figure . Top: overview of the Ulandryk-II burial complex . The location of the different measurement sites is marked with a black dot. Bottom: The 3 temperature logging sites

Figure The thermal regime for the 3 logging sites as recorded by Hobo data-loggers and iButtons at different depths. At first, note the lag in time with depth, and the attenuation of the signal. Secondly, temperatures in the kurgan are at depths of 45 anc 80 cm considerably lower than in the neighbourhood due to convective cooling. This is in contrast to summer times , during which temperatures are very similar.

Satellite Image Analysis SPOT During the 2009 expedition ground control points and ground truth data were gathered in order to classify the Spot imagery which weve got in the framework of the Planet Action program. Kevin Baker, master student at Ghent University, accompanied the expedition in the framework of his master thesis. He measured ground control points and referencing points necessary to georeference and classify satellite imagery. Such a detailed classification (at 20m pixel level) would be a major contribution to the project as at first, no qualitative classification exists yet, and therefore it might bring us new insights how the vegetation is zonated in the study area. Secondly, when combined with the obtained ground temperature data, such a classification can be used as an input for a statistical permafrost model at large scale. This approach will almost certainly work at the Ukok Plateau where permafrost is very closely related to topographical location and surface cover. Finally, if we compare the obtained map with older imagery, we might check for changes in the landscape. To obtain these goals, Kevin measured 106 reference points and 23 GCPs. GCPs were chosen at locations which can be seen on satellite imagery: crossroads, bridges, river-crossing. For the reference points however, spots with a uniform surface cover were measured, which will be used as

training pixels for different classification algorithm. Furthermore sketches and panoramic-pictures from different viewpoints were registered and will serve as additional information.

Figure Map showing the locations of the reference and ground control points as measured by master student Kevin Baker during the 2009 expedition. This map comprises both the points measured in the Dzhazator-Tarkhata area as on the Ukok Plateau.

MODIS During the first year of the project, when ground data was not yet available, attention was given to use interpolated MODIS LST values as an input layer for permafrost modelling. Furthermore the MODIS snow product was used to determine the amount of snow days in the Kosh Agatch Region. Based on these results a first estimation of the permafrost distribution could be obtained, by using isotherms and transfer functions: a common statistical methodology in permafrost studies

Figure Map showing the number of snow covered days in the Kosh Agatch Region

Figure Left: yearly average LST in the Altay Repulic. Right: Permafrost distribution map based on isotherms.

Activities Undertaken
In the summer of 2009, a second joint Belgian-Russian expedition was conducted in the Kosh-Agatch region (Altay Republic, Russia). During the expedition, temperature data-loggers - programmed in the summer of 2008 - were retrieved, downloaded and replaced or reinstalled from their respectively location in and around the valleys of Dzhazator andTarkhata. In addition ground control points necessary for Spot imagery geometric correction, and ground truth data for classification purposes were measured with hand held GPS devices. Furthermore, additional measuring devices and ground control points were installed and measured on the Ukok Plateau, a mountainous area located close to the Russian-Chinese-Kazach-Mongolian border, and renowned for its rich archaeological context.

Challenges or difficulties encountered

Logistics remains the most difficult part in this project. As we require a lot of field data, extensive field campaigns are necessary to provide this data. However, as we have a good cooperation with the Gorno-Altaisk State University, every expedition is well organized, and going to the Altay is not only work but also fun. Secondly, as we need at least one, but preferably two years of data, results are rather limited in the first 2 years of the project. Therefore we are looking forward to next year, when more reliable conclusions can be stated. Finally, the geometric correction of the Spot satellite imagery was a difficult task. As we are limited to take GCPs in the river valleys, an accurate orthorectification with DEM was needed to remove the geometric distortions, created by elevation differences up to 2000m.

What is next?
During the upcoming months, the calculation of a permafrost distribution map, based on the first data results will be main objective, together with classifying the Spot imagery. The classification

results will serve as an input layer for more detailed permafrost mapping, and understanding of the thermal regime in the Altay Mountains. Results will then be updated, and validated with data gathered in the 2010 expedition, which will be held in July. With this data, results can then be published.

Conclusion
At this moment, the project is in full process. The ground data retrieved during the expeditions is being processed, and models are calculated. Next summer a last expedition will be organized to collect all the remaining necessary data. Once all this data is gathered, results can be finalized, and published.