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India's Off and On Policies 0810-010A
India's Off and On Policies 0810-010A
India's Off and On Policies 0810-010A
India’s ON and OFF Policy In today’s uncertain world, a few countries stand out on
their own, of which India is one. There is everything
one can think of finding – higher education, high
savings rate, less papers or derivatives, huge
population, efficient stock market, several millions of
rich middle class wage earners, less debt, huge
savings in real wealth like Gold and Silver, classy high
tech manpower, world’s best design source, above
average entrepreneurs, great creative and entertaining
industry, least gambling resources, and a great
democracy.
The seeds of high end Info tech were sawn by its first and most
charming Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, a great visionary. With
extremely limited sources at his command in early 50s, he
maneuvered to obtain the great alliance with prestigious MIT in the
United States, to set up 4 finest technical institutes – Indian Institute
of Technology. And in remaining 60 years, the successive
governments with almost 50 times monetary and ample human
resources at their command could set up only 3 such institutes. He
made the technical and engineering education so cheap and
affordable, that India could produce talents at the cheapest cost.
His investment by way of subsidies in education, basic industries and oil refineries returned 100 times
return in recent years. What he spent in millions on IIT brought in billions of dollars in Forex through
thriving Info Tech industries. Even this author got 4 degrees for just Rs 4000 or $80 in 4 years.
When the British left India in 1947, they built 9 platforms at Bombay VT railway station when India’s
population stood at 300 million; whereas in next 60 years, the successive Indian governments could
build only 4 platforms at Bombay’s Church gate railway station with over 1 billion population! It is said
that India is always on “Auto Pilot”. No one knows how it runs – it just walks in the wilderness.
Even the Kennedy dynasty nowhere stands near the Nehru dynasty.
The greatest contribution that Mrs. Indira Gandhi made was the green
revolution and killing of all strength of pre-1947 Pakistan into two
separate nations – Pakistan and Bangladesh.
And yet, all credits are given today to the likes of BJP Leader Vajpayee,
the charismatic Prime Minister who merely exploded the Nuclear Bomb
(It was built only with the vision of Nehru and Mrs. Indira Gandhi), Man
Mohan Singh, the Prime Minister and P Chidambaram, the Finance
Minister today for doing nothing substantially positive and lots of
negative.
India has come a long way since 1950. Knowledge is no longer a power of a few. However, the kind of
progress expected has not been achieved by India, and in fact, it is on the verge of losing major
advantage if nothing is done now.
India’s disastrous policy measures in past, its effects and how that can be reversed with ease?
India’s de facto Central Bank – Reserve Bank of India – similar to FED in USA or Bank of England in
UK, is a most revered institution in India. So also, Security and Exchange Board of India known as
SEBI, equivalent of SEC in other countries, and stock exchanges like Bombay Stock Exchange – BSE
and National Stock Exchange (NSE). They are given the status of demi-god by the admiring and
ignorant semi educated urban class in India. The result is that these institutions, with possible exception
of NSE in some cases, have become monolithic and inefficient organizations, with RBI leading the
pack.
And what the same guys are doing while in charge of the country? They want their currency Rupee
weak, so that it earns less, expends more, exports undersells country’s assets, imports overpays for the
good, and the external debt soars only because of depreciation of the currency. These smart guys in
RBI, SEBI, Finance Ministry and Prime Minister’s office know nothing, absolutely nothing. They are
monkeys imitating blindly the western world, who want your national currency weaker so that they can
buy cheaper from you and keep their inflation in check.
And I do not say that manipulate rupee to get stronger (the way US does for dollar). What I want to say
is that let it find its own level. Do not intervene there is natural tendency to get stronger. Do not sterilize
its rise. The sterilization operation is antibiotic. Continued practice of sterilization will kill its natural
power to grow and get stronger. It is more like a person not wanting a child uses condom or birth
control pill to sterilize the fertility for over 10 years, finds difficult to have child when he wants to,
because the body has become immune to its natural power to produce. Treat economy like a body, and
RBI’s sterilization and SEBI’s P-Note measures like birth control pills, and you will understand complex
economics in a flash.
A person in a gym uses all equipments and tools to make every part of his muscle beautifully contoured
and in shape. He then takes in healthy food, without which entire body will not respond to various form
of physical exercise. Consider body as economy, policy measures as various tools for exercise and
Rupee as lifeline food. If the food is weak or debilitating, the whole body is destroyed. It is a job of
Finance Minister to imitate that practice to make every section of the economy well contoured and
strong. The currency policy should be conceived and directed as suitable to the national needs, not
international or IMF demand.
Indian never Saw Lower Oil Prices at Rs 10/ltr when Oil fell all time low to $10/brl
Due to consistent weaker rupee, the petrol prices always rose like mercury in thermometer. When the
oil fell all time low to $10 per barrel or Rs 400 per 159 liters or Rs 2.33 per liter, Indian never saw petrol
or diesel prices falling to Rs 10 per liter. This is what the misguided Rupee policy did for Indian
consumers
Currency (Rupee) Never Remain at Same Level – like Water, it finds its own level
During BJP administration, Rupee was allowed to appreciate to Rs 43 from Rs 48. This was the single
most contribution from BJP government for national good. It continued to Rs 39 during Congress
dominated coalition administration when the officials in RBI and Finance Ministry were alarmed. SEBI
started talking about Rupee when it was none of its business. These are a fiscal and monetary matter
that is the domain of RBI and Finance Ministry. SEBI invented P-Note related measures that were the
harbinger of downward movement of Rupee. It just dropped from Rs 39 to Rs 50 yesterday, when
Indian economy was supposed to be having highest growth in the world, Forex reserve at over $300
billions, and every sector of the economy was on four cylinders.
These wise guys applied screeching brake with the result that money simply evaporated, stock markets
crashed, rupee crashed, interest rates rose, inflation rose to over 13%, oil subsidies went through the
roof, and many other countless collateral damage such as recession, lower home prices, higher food
prices, and what not.
If Islamic punishment of stoning to death were to be allowed in India, the officials in Finance Ministry,
Reserve Bank of India and SEBI fully deserved that capital punishment. They destroyed vibrant
economy; they dealt death blow to the aspirations of Indian people, they sank India into deeper external
debt (by additional at least Rs 60,000 crores), they caused Oil bill to rise by Rs 16000 crores due to
depreciation effect of the Rupee, they caused budget deficits mainly due to oil subsidies running into
60,000 crores (US$ 15 billions) which would not have been there had Rupee been allowed stronger,
they caused first time home owners life miserable by increasing their EMI by over 6% per year or Rs
3000 per month per Rs 100,000 of mortgage loan, they raised the borrowing cost of almost all business
enterprises by minimum 3% , cost of energy rose by 20%, and only the life of human (Made in India)
became cheaper.
Due to single most reason –One and only One- Weaker Rupee.
(To be continued further that will be appended here. Full article will then be converted into PDF file for download)