Technical Research | March 20, 2012

Daily Technical Report Sensex (17273) / NIFTY (5257)

Yesterday, markets opened on a quiet note in-line with other Asian markets. However, selling pressure intensified as the day progressed which led indices to close in the negative territory. On the sectoral front, Realty, Power and Capital Goods were among the major losers, whereas FMCG ended on a gaining side. The advance to decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters. (A=1004 D=1868) (Source www.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation:
The 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 20day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) have now shifted to 17164 / 5163 and 17575 / 5344, respectively. The 20-Week EMA is placed at 17150 / 5188 level. The Daily momentum oscillators and 3 & 8 EMA are

negatively poised. Indices have closed around the Upward Sloping Trend
Source: Falcon

Line level of 17250 / 5255.

Trading strategy:
After a flat opening, indices witnessed a strong selling pressure throughout the day. As mentioned in our previous report, the negative impact of the technical tools such as, momentum oscillators and 3 & 8 EMA was seen on the violation of Fridays low 17426 / 5305. Subsequently, indices drifted down to fill the upward gap created on March 9, 2012 and eventually closed around this support zone. This also coincides with the Upward Sloping Trend Line level of 17250 / 5255. Going forward, if indices manage to sustain below yesterdays low of 17226 / 5238, then we may see further selling pressure and indices may slide down to test strong support zone of 17164 17150 / 5188 5163. Conversely, 17426 17562 / 5305 5341 levels may act as a intermediate resistances for the coming trading session. A close beyond 17562 / 5341 would be a sign of reversal of bearish momentum.

Actionable points:
View Support Levels Resistance Levels Neutral 5238 - 5188 5163 5305 5341

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Technical Research | March 20, 2012

Bank Nifty Outlook - (10189)

Yesterday, Bank Nifty opened on a pessimistic note and selling pressure dragged the index lower to test 78.6% retracement of the rise from March 7, 2012 March 14, 2012. The index has managed to give a close well below its 20 EMA and there is a negative crossover in RSI Smoothened oscillator on the daily chart, which is a sign of weakness in the index. On the flip side, the momentum oscillators on the hourly chart are in an oversold condition and the possibility of minor pullback from the 78.86% retracement support cannot be ruled out. Thus, on the upside 10432 10524 levels are likely to act as intermediate resistance in coming trading session. A breach of yesterdays low of 10135 would signal likelihood of further selling pressure and the index may drift towards 10040 9939 levels. Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Actionable points:
View Resistance Levels Support Levels Neutral 10432 - 10524 10135 10040 - 9939

Source: Falcon

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Technical Research | March 20, 2012

Positive Bias:
20 Day EMA 2087 Positive Above 2155 Expected Target 2235

Stock Name Glaxo Pharma

CMP 2145

5 Day EMA 2122

Remarks View will change below 2115

Negative Bias:
20 Day EMA 86.5 Negative Below 81 Expected Target 74.5

Stock Name Arvind Limited

CMP 82.2

5 Day EMA 84

Remarks View will change above 85

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Technical Research | March 20, 2012

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 17,019 5,177 9,949 1,296 162 1,159 1,672 317 249 649 329 297 328 186 1,639 355 482 633 486 1,897 137 382 876 132 2,761 212 550 71 519 1,262 676 1,339 169 263 896 104 390 85 731 559 119 90 2,095 191 742 110 537 26 275 99 435 1,077 417 S1 17,146 5,217 10,069 1,326 165 1,179 1,691 321 255 657 341 299 331 190 1,657 359 490 642 493 1,919 139 388 892 135 2,799 216 564 73 525 1,279 684 1,351 170 268 912 106 395 88 743 576 123 92 2,126 194 758 112 546 27 279 101 442 1,099 422 PIVOT 17,354 5,279 10,255 1,355 169 1,209 1,713 326 265 663 348 302 336 194 1,672 365 496 657 501 1,942 141 394 911 139 2,850 220 572 77 531 1,303 691 1,365 173 272 941 107 404 91 763 607 128 94 2,182 200 771 115 552 28 286 104 453 1,134 426 R1 17,481 5,319 10,375 1,384 171 1,228 1,732 330 270 672 359 304 340 197 1,689 369 505 665 508 1,964 143 400 927 142 2,888 224 587 79 538 1,321 698 1,376 174 276 956 109 410 93 775 624 131 96 2,213 203 787 117 561 28 290 105 459 1,157 431 R2 17,689 5,381 10,561 1,413 175 1,258 1,754 335 280 678 366 307 344 202 1,704 375 511 681 516 1,987 145 406 947 146 2,938 228 595 82 544 1,345 705 1,390 176 280 985 110 419 97 795 655 137 98 2,269 209 800 120 566 29 297 108 470 1,192 435

Technical Research Team

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Technical Research | March 20, 2012 Technical Report

RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head - Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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