Market Outlook

India Research
March 21, 2012

Dealers Diary
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

The Indian markets are expected to open sideways following mixed opening across most of the Asian bourses. Globally, US markets ended much above their worst daily levels on Tuesday as selling pressure waned after an early downward move which came on account of some discouraging news from China renewing concerns about the global economy outlook. News from China indicating slowness in iron ore and auto demand and probable increase in retail gasoline and diesel prices second time within a year, increased concerns over growth in world second largest economy. The European bourses fell sharply on Tuesday as investor appetite was affected by Chinese growth concern. Meanwhile Indian shares snapped a three-day losing streak on Tuesday to end the day slightly in green, disregarding a regional downward trend and recoil in European shares for a second straight day. Sentiments were improved after amendments moved by opposition to the presidents address on the National Counter Terrorism Centre were defeated in Rajya Sabha. Indian Markets will closely trace the developments in the domestic as well as global markets.

BSE Sensex Nifty MID CAP SMALL CAP BSE HC BSE PSU BANKEX AUTO METAL OIL & GAS BSE IT Global Indices Dow Jones NASDAQ FTSE Nikkei Hang Seng Straits Times Shanghai Com

0.3 0.3 0.6 (0.0) 1.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.3
Chg (%)

42.8 17,316 17.8 35.3 (1.9) 64.4 26.7 5,275 6,336 6,630 6,420 7,379 9,965 8,186 5,986
(Close)

100.2 11,837 35.7 11,466 49.7 17.7

(Pts)

(1.5) (151.4)

(0.5) (0.1) (1.2) 0.1 0.4 (1.4)

(68.9) 13,170 (4.2) (69.7) 3,074 5,891

12.2 10,142 12.6 (33.4) 3,003 2,377

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,313/ 5,268 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 17,414 17,511 / 5,304 5,333 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 17,313 / 5,268 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 17,215 17,114 / 5,240 5,204 levels.
Indices SENSEX NIFTY S2 17,114 5,204 S1 17,215 5,240 PIVOT 17,313 5,268 R1 17,414 5,304 R2 17,511 5,333

(1.1) (227.1) 20,888

Indian ADRs

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

INFY WIT IBN HDB

(0.8) (1.6) (1.3) 0.2

(0.5) (0.2) (0.5) 0.1

$57.7 $10.8 $36.2 $33.3

News Analysis

Advances / Declines Advances Declines Unchanged

BSE

NSE

NTPC ties up `500cr capex loan with Mizuho Bank BHEL bags `630cr equipment order

1,312 1,586 118

677 754 77

detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (March 19, 2012)

` cr FII MFs Purch 2,378 600 Sales 2,192 690 Net 186 (90) MTD 7,619 (993) YTD 43,917 (5,020)
Volumes (` cr) BSE NSE

2,627 11,555

FII Derivatives (March 20, 2012)

` cr
Index Futures Stock Futures

Purch 1,573 2,446

Sales 1,766 2,205

Net (193) 241

Open Interest 16,179 29,969

Gainers / Losers
Gainers Company
IRB Infra Bata India Jet Air India Tech Mahindra PTC India

Losers Company
Tata Motors Adani Power Thermax Adani Enter United Spirits

Price (`)
197 726 338 648 61

chg (%)
5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0

Price (`)
272 67 469 285 538

chg (%)
(4.2) (4.0) (3.3) (3.2) (2.6)

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539

Market Outlook | India Research

NTPC ties up `500cr capex loan with Mizuho Bank

NTPC Ltd. has tied up a loan of US$100mn (`500cr) with Japans Mizuho Corporate Bank to part finance its capex. The loan will be spent on capital expenditure for the company's ongoing as well as new projects. It would also be utilized for financing coal mining projects and renovation and modernization of power stations. NTPC along with its JVs currently has 36,014MW of installed capacity and another 12,933MW of capacity under construction. Currently, the companys net debt to equity ratio is 0.5x. At CMP, the stock trades at P/BV of 1.7x its FY2013 estimates. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `199.

BHEL bags `630cr equipment order

BHEL has bagged a `630cr contract from a private power company, Abhijeet Projects, for setting up a 300MW thermal plant at Vishakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh. The contract includes design, engineering, manufacture and commissioning of boilers, steam turbines and turbo generators. BHEL is also executing a contract for the supply and installation of the main plant package (boilers, turbines and generators) for Abhijeet Projects' 1,080MW coal-based Matrishri Usha Jayaswal Mega Power Plant located at Latehar district of Jharkhand. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

Economic and Political News

Huge gold imports strain balance of payment: Finance Minister No plans to introduce universal public distribution system, says Food Minister Disinvestment shortfall hike deficit by 0.29%: Finance Minister Government eyes `1,500cr revenue from FM radio auction

Corporate News

IATA cuts airline profit forecast due to oil price Coal Ministry seeks Law Ministrys opinion to reallocate coal blocks Satyam, Tech Mahindra to consider merger today No major impact due to new Australian mining law: Adani USFDA may visit Dr. Reddy's Mexico unit this month Nalco to invest `2,300cr on expansion in FY2013

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

March 21, 2012

Market Outlook | India Research

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March 21, 2012