Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.

Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 582-5201 FOR RELEASE: MARCH 22, 2012

McMAHON LEADS IN CONNECTICUT GOP SENATE PRIMARY, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; BUT SHAYS RUNS BETTER AGAINST DEMOCRATS
Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon leads former U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays 51 42 percent in the Republican primary for Connecticuts U.S. Senate seat, but Shays runs better against possible Democratic candidates, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 50 35 percent McMahon lead September 16. U.S. Rep. Christopher Murphy leads the Democratic primary for Senate with 37 percent, followed by former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz with 25 percent and State Rep. William Tong with 4 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. In possible November matchups: Murphy tops McMahon 52 37 percent; Murphy gets 41 percent to Shays 40 percent; Bysiewicz beats McMahon 49 39 percent; Shays gets 43 percent to Bysiewicz 42 percent; McMahon leads Tong 43 39 percent; Shays tops Tong 50 25 percent. In the Murphy-McMahon face-off, the Democrat leads 50 41 percent among men and 54 33 percent among women. Congressman Christopher Shays has narrowed the gap with Linda McMahon from 15 points to 9 points. The question is whether he can catch up by primary day, August 14, said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. In general election matchups, Shays runs neck and neck with either Congressman Christopher Murphy or Susan Bysiewicz, while McMahon trails both of them by double digits. -more-

Quinnipiac University Poll/March 22, 2012 page 2 The numbers have barely moved in the Democratic primary with Murphy holding a double digit lead over Bysiewicz, but 29 percent are undecided, Dr. Schwartz added. Presidential Race Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney dominates Connecticuts Republican presidential primary with 42 percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 19 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 13 percent and Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul with 9 percent. President Barack Obama thumps Romney 53 37 percent in the general election matchup, leading 51 40 percent among men and 55 34 percent among women. The president leads 91 6 percent among Democrats and 48 37 percent among independent voters, while Romney leads 85 12 percent among Republicans. Obama beats Santorum 55 35 percent. Connecticut voters approve 53 43 percent of the job the president is doing and by 55 41 percent they have a favorable opinion of him. Romney gets a negative 35 43 percent favorability and Santorum gets a negative 27 43 percent. Gov. Mitt Romney is crushing Santorum in Connecticut, leading by 23 points. Romneys strength continues to be among upscale voters and seniors, Schwartz said. But President Barack Obama has a big double-digit lead over either Romney or Sen. Rick Santorum in the general election. The question here is whether the presidents coattails will affect the Senate race in November. Connecticut voters approve 51 38 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman is doing and approve 64 23 percent of freshman Sen. Richard Blumenthal, his best score so far. From March 14 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,622 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. The survey includes 429 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 640 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........................ COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Gingrich Romney Santorum Paul SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 13% 42 19 9 3 14 16% 43 20 9 3 9 10% 40 19 10 3 18 19% 39 23 4 1 14 4% 49 15 18 4 9 10% 51 16 8 4 10 15% 35 22 10 2 16

AGE IN YRS....... 18-44 45-64 65+ Gingrich Romney Santorum Paul SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 10% 40 15 21 2 12 16% 36 22 6 5 15 11% 51 19 4 2 13

ANNUAL HsHOLD INCOME <50K 50-100 >100K 16% 38 22 5 2 17 12% 41 23 12 2 10 12% 44 17 10 3 13

TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were: Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 Gingrich Romney Santorum Paul Bachmann Cain Huntsman McCotter Palin Perry SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 13 42 19 9 na na na na na na 3 14 3 37 1 3 8 3 2 4 19 1 4 16

2. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays and Linda McMahon, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........................ COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Shays McMahon SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 42% 51 1 6 44% 50 6 40% 52 2 6 35% 59 1 6 53% 43 4 46% 47 2 6 39% 54 1 6

AGE IN YRS....... 18-44 45-64 65+ Shays McMahon SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 34% 54 3 10 48% 47 1 4 42% 52 6

ANNUAL HsHOLD INCOME <50K 50-100 >100K 41% 52 2 6 39% 54 1 6 47% 47 1 5

TREND: (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays and Linda McMahon, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 Shays McMahon SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 42 51 1 6 35 50 1 1 12

3. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were: Chris Murphy, Susan Bysiewicz, and William Tong, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......................... COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Lib Mod Yes No Murphy Bysiewicz Tong SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 37% 25 4 1 4 29 41% 25 3 1 4 27 35% 26 4 3 31 39% 23 3 1 2 32 41% 26 3 4 26 44% 22 4 1 3 26 32% 28 4 4 32

AGE IN YRS....... 18-44 45-64 65+ Murphy Bysiewicz Tong SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 34% 23 1 7 36 39% 29 4 1 3 24 38% 24 5 2 31

ANNUAL HsHOLD INCOME <50K 50-100 >100K 38% 31 5 3 23 33% 25 3 6 33 42% 22 4 4 28

TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were: Chris Murphy, Susan Bysiewicz and William Tong, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Mar 22 Sep 16 2012 2011 Murphy Bysiewicz Tong SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 37 25 4 1 4 29 36 26 1 2 35

4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Obama Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 53% 37 1 3 6 Rep 12% 85 1 2 Dem 91% 6 2 1 Ind 48% 37 2 5 9 Men 51% 40 2 3 4 Wom 55% 34 4 7 Lib 89% 6 1 4 Mod 55% 33 1 3 8 Con 19% 72 2 5 3

TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 22 2012 Obama Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 53 37 1 3 6 Sep 16 2011 49 36 2 2 10

5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote? Tot Obama Santorum SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 55% 35 1 4 6 Rep 13% 78 1 3 5 Dem 91% 5 1 2 Ind 50% 35 1 6 8 Men 53% 37 1 4 5 Wom 56% 33 3 7 Lib 89% 8 1 2 Mod 58% 27 1 5 9 Con 20% 70 1 4 5

6. Is your opinion of - Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 55% 41 2 2 Rep 14% 85 1 Dem 91% 7 1 2 Ind 51% 44 3 3 Men 54% 44 1 1 Wom 57% 38 2 3 Lib 89% 8 2 1 Mod 59% 37 2 2 Con 21% 77 1 1

TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 22 2012 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 55 41 2 2 Sep 16 2011 50 45 3 3 Dec 17 2008 71 11 15 2 Mar 27 2008 59 24 15 2 May 10 2007 51 15 32 1 Feb 19 2007 48 10 40 2

7. Is your opinion of - Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 35% 43 19 3 Rep 66% 14 17 3 Dem 13% 65 18 3 Ind 36% 43 19 2 Men 38% 45 14 2 Wom 32% 42 23 4 Lib 14% 69 14 4 Mod 36% 44 17 3 Con 55% 21 23 1

TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 22 2012 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 35 43 19 3 Sep 16 2011 34 28 36 2 May 10 2007 15 23 60 1 Feb 19 2007 13 19 67 1

8. Is your opinion of - Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 27% 43 29 2 Rep 55% 17 26 2 Dem 7% 63 29 1 Ind 28% 43 28 1 Men 30% 45 24 1 Wom 24% 41 33 2 Lib 9% 68 23 Mod 22% 47 29 2 Con 51% 17 30 2

9. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and - Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot McMahon Murphy SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA(VOL) 37% 52 2 9 Rep 83% 12 1 1 4 Dem 8% 83 8 Ind 35% 50 3 12 Men 41% 50 2 7 Wom 33% 54 1 1 11 Lib 11% 77 1 10 Mod 32% 56 2 10 Con 68% 24 2 6

TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 22 2012 McMahon Murphy SOMEONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA(VOL) 37 52 2 9 Sep 16 2011 38 49 1 1 11

10. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and - Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot McMahon Bysiewicz SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA(VOL) 39% 49 3 9 Rep 84% 10 1 1 4 Dem 10% 81 2 7 Ind 36% 45 5 13 Men 44% 45 4 7 Wom 34% 52 3 11 Lib 8% 79 3 10 Mod 37% 49 4 10 Con 70% 22 3 5

TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 22 2012 McMahon Bysiewicz SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA(VOL) 39 49 3 9 Sep 16 2011 38 46 1 3 12

11. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Linda McMahon the Republican and - William Tong the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot McMahon Tong SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA(VOL) 43% 39 1 4 14 Rep 87% 6 1 2 4 Dem 11% 71 1 2 15 Ind 44% 32 1 5 19 Men 49% 38 1 4 9 Wom 37% 39 1 4 19 Lib 14% 68 1 2 16 Mod 39% 37 1 6 17 Con 76% 15 2 7

12. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and - Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Shays Murphy SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA(VOL) 40% 41 2 17 Rep 80% 8 1 10 Dem 11% 75 13 Ind 40% 34 3 22 Men 48% 38 2 12 Wom 32% 45 2 22 Lib 14% 66 1 19 Mod 37% 42 2 18 Con 67% 19 2 12

TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and Chris Murphy the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 22 2012 Shays Murphy SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA(VOL) 40 41 2 17 Sep 16 2011 37 43 1 2 17

13. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and - Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Shays Bysiewicz SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA(VOL) 43% 42 2 13 Rep 81% 11 1 1 5 Dem 15% 71 1 13 Ind 44% 36 3 16 Men 50% 35 3 11 Wom 36% 47 1 15 Lib 15% 68 1 16 Mod 45% 39 3 14 Con 66% 23 1 2 8

TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and Susan Bysiewicz the Democrat, for whom would you vote? (* 2011 wording referenced "2012 election") Mar 22 2012 Shays Bysiewicz SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA(VOL) 43 42 2 13 Sep 16 2011 42 40 1 2 16

14. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Chris Shays the Republican and - William Tong the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Tot Shays Tong SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA(VOL) 50% 25 1 3 21 Rep 87% 4 2 8 Dem 23% 53 2 22 Ind 53% 16 1 4 26 Men 57% 23 1 4 15 Wom 44% 27 1 3 26 Lib 22% 50 1 2 25 Mod 52% 21 4 23 Con 76% 10 1 3 11

15. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 40% 44 15 1 Rep 74% 16 9 1 Dem 14% 68 17 1 Ind 41% 42 15 2 Men 44% 44 11 1 Wom 36% 44 18 2 Lib 17% 69 13 Mod 37% 47 14 2 Con 66% 19 14 2

TREND: Is your opinion of Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? (* High also 43% Jul 2010) FAVORABLE.... High Low Aug 4 Nov 12 2010* 2009 43 37 17 2 20 13 66 1

Mar 22 2012 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 40 44 15 1

Sep 16 2011 38 45 15 2

Aug 4 2010 43 37 17 2

Jul 16 2010 43 37 20 1

Jun 10 2010 38 35 25 1

16. Is your opinion of - Chris Shays favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 47% 13 38 2 Rep 60% 8 31 1 Dem 37% 20 41 2 Ind 49% 11 39 1 Men 54% 15 29 1 Wom 40% 11 47 2 Lib 37% 18 43 1 Mod 50% 13 35 2 Con 53% 9 37 1

TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Shays favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 22 2012 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 47 13 38 2 Sep 16 2011 41 14 44 1

17. Is your opinion of - Susan Bysiewicz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Tot Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 39% 27 34 1 Rep 17% 48 34 Dem 55% 12 32 1 Ind 38% 27 34 1 Men 36% 31 32 1 Wom 41% 22 36 1 Lib 57% 9 33 1 Mod 40% 26 33 1 Con 23% 44 33 -

TREND: Is your opinion of Susan Bysiewicz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Mar 22 2012 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 39 27 34 1 Sep 16 2011 39 27 33 1 Jan 21 2010 49 14 36 1 Nov 10 2009 43 11 44 1 Feb 10 2009 40 12 48 1

18. Is your opinion of - Chris Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 40% 15 44 1 Rep 19% 33 47 1 Dem 60% 3 37 1 Ind 35% 15 48 1 Men 41% 19 40 1 Wom 39% 12 48 1 Lib 54% 2 44 Mod 44% 12 43 1 Con 24% 32 43 2

TREND: Is your opinion of Chris Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Mar 22 2012 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 40 15 44 1 Sep 16 2011 38 16 45 1

19. Is your opinion of - William Tong favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Tot Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 10% 5 85 Rep 4% 8 88 Dem 17% 2 81 Ind 8% 6 86 1 Men 12% 8 80 Wom 8% 3 89 Lib 17% 1 81 Mod 7% 6 87 Con 7% 8 84 -

22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Joe Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Approve Disapprove DK/NA 51% 38 11 Rep 61% 31 8 Dem 39% 49 12 Ind 54% 34 12 Men 54% 39 7 Wom 48% 37 15 Lib 39% 51 10 Mod 53% 35 12 Con 56% 34 10

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Low also 38% Dec 2008) APPROVE....... High Low Sep 21 Mar 09 2000 2011* 80 14 6 38 45 17

Mar 22 2012 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 51 38 11

Sep 16 2011 51 40 10

Jun 15 2011 41 45 14

Mar 09 2011 38 45 17

Jul 16 2010 40 50 9

23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as United States Senator? Tot Approve Disapprove DK/NA 64% 23 14 Rep 44% 42 14 Dem 82% 6 12 Ind 62% 24 14 Men 61% 28 11 Wom 66% 18 16 Lib 83% 6 11 Mod 68% 19 13 Con 40% 44 15

10

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Blumenthal is handling his job as United States Senator? Mar 22 2012 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 64 23 14 Sep 16 2011 60 23 17 Jun 15 2011 54 25 21 Mar 09 2011 49 25 26

24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Tot Approve Disapprove DK/NA 53% 43 4 Rep 12% 87 2 Dem 87% 10 3 Ind 49% 46 5 Men 51% 46 2 Wom 54% 40 5 Lib 87% 11 3 Mod 56% 39 5 Con 17% 79 3

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? (*High also 71% Apr 2009) APPROVE....... High Low May 27 Sep 16 2009* 2011 71 22 7 48 48 4

Mar 22 2012 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 53 43 4

Sep 16 2011 48 48 4

Jun 15 2011 53 44 3

Mar 09 2011 49 47 4

Jul 16 2010 50 44 6

11