23 Nov 2011

Daily Currency Report

Market Recap
Emerging Asian currencies fell today as investors kept cutting risk assets on increasing worries about the euro zone and the global economy though some regional currencies were pulled higher by central bank intervention.A preliminary survey on Chinese manufacturing renewed worries of a hard landing for the world's second-largest economy boosting global recession fears pushing down emerging Asian currencies more.

Asian shares, US futures as a weak Chinese manufacturing survey renewed fears of a hard landing for the world's No. 2 economy exacerbating worries about faltering global growth following a downward revision of US GDP data.Euro also fell, after a report in a Belgian newspaper that the Franco-Belgium bailout of Dexia bank, the first casualty of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis was on the verge of a collapse.

Australian and New Zealand dollars fell sharply today as a shockingly weak reading on China's manufacturing activity dealt a body blow to risk sentiment sending stocks and commodities reeling.

People's Bank of China fixed the yuan's mid-point against the dollar at 6.3498 firm than the previous fixing level of 6.3555. Indian Rupee opened weak and made a low of 52.73 due to weak asian currencies and equity markets.Frim dollar movement and dollar demand from oil companies also weighed on the rupee.However dollar selling due to retracement in dollar strength and equity markets helped rupee to recoup most of its losses.Suspected central bank selling was also seen weighing positively on the rupee.Rupee closed at 52.2950 weaker than its previous close of 52.16.It is expected to open weak today due to weak asian currencies & equity markets.However fears of central bank intervention will be supportive for the rupee.

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23 Nov 2011

Technical Level & Trade Recommendation

Currency USD/INR EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY S1 52.14 1.3462 1.5583 76.73 S2 51.99 1.3414 1.5527 76.5 Pivot 52.43 1.3515 1.5637 77.02 R1 52.59 1.3563 1.5693 77.25 R2 52.87 1.3616 1.5747 77.54 14DMA 50.56 1.3597 1.5856 77.33 21DMA 50.13 1.37 1.5915 77.29 50DMA 49.37 1.3661 1.5768 76.92

Currency wise Summary -22/11/2011

MCX-SX No. of Total Contracts Traded Traded Value (Rs. In Crs.) 3582474 18,843.68 39025 277.20 16056 132.19 18708 127.82 NSE No. of Total Contracts Traded Traded Value (Rs. In Crs.) 3184315 16759.7 36762 261.38 10372 85.35 12229 83.55

Symbol

Open Interest (Qty.) 1240601 31172 22449 20227

Symbol

Open Interest (Qty.) 2803377 50362 12378 14795

USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR

USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR

Recommendation
Rally in USD/INR towards 52.58 is a good selling level with a stop of 52.75 for a target of 52.10. Dip in EUR/USD towards 1.3450 is a good buying level with a stop of 1.3415 for a target of 1.3530. Dip in GBP/USD towards 1.5598 is a good buying level with a stop of 1.5570 for a target of 1.5665. Rally in USD/JPY towards 77.31/42 is a good selling level with a stop of 77.72 for a target of 76.89.

Geojit Comtrade Ltd.

23 Nov 2011 TECHNICAL UPDATE

USD/INR ( 52.1950 )
4 Hours QINR=IN
BarOHLC, QINR=IN, Bid 07:00 23/11/2011, 52.575, 52.575, 51.75, 52.195 SMA, QINR=IN, Bid(Last), 14 07:00 23/11/2011, 51.6177 11:00 01/06/2011 - 11:00 01/12/2011 (GM T) Price

51

50
49 48 47 46 45 44 .1234 MACD, QINR=IN, Bid(Last), M ACD 12, 26, 9, Simple 07:00 23/11/2011, 0.6313 MACD, QINR=IN, Bid(Last), M ACD Signal Line 12, 26, 9, Simple 07:00 23/11/2011, 0.5423 StochS, QINR=IN, Bid, Stochastics-Slow %K 8, 3, Simple, 3 07:00 23/11/2011, 74.166 StochS, QINR=IN, Bid, Stochastics-Slow %D 8, 3, Simple, 3 07:00 23/11/2011, 83.601 03 07 09 13 1517 2123 2729 01 05 07 11 13 1519 21 25 27 29 02 04 08 10 12 16 18 2224 26 30 01 05 07 09 13 1519 2123 27 29 04 06 10 12 14 18 20 24 26 28 01 03 08 11 15 17 2123 2529 Value .1234 Value .123

June 2011

July 2011

August 2011

September 2011

October 2011

November 2011

USD/INR: Pair closed at 52.2950 weaker than its previous close of 52.16.Rupee opened weak and made a low of 52.73 due to weak asian currencies and equity markets.Firm dollar movement and dollar demand from oil companies also weighed negatively on the rupee.However dollar selling due to retracement in dollar strength and equity markets helped rupee to recoup most of its intraday losses and close marginally weak.Stochastic on Daily charts is into overbought zone and MACD continues to be into buy zone & Stochastic on 4 hourly charts is heavily into overbought zone so a correction can be expected.Near term support is at 52.10 & 51.75 & resistance is at 52.58 & 52.73.

EUR/USD ( 1.3461 )
4 Hours QEUR=
BarOHLC, QEUR=, Bid 08:00 23/11/2011, 1.3468, 1.3477, 1.3455, 1.3461 SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 14 08:00 23/11/2011, 1.3494 20:00 14/09/2011 - 04:00 28/11/2011 (GMT) Price USD

1.4
1.39 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.32 .1234

MACD, QEUR=, Bid(Last), MACD 12, 26, 9, Simple 08:00 23/11/2011, -0.0012 MACD, QEUR=, Bid(Last), MACD Signal Line 12, 26, 9, Simple 08:00 23/11/2011, -0.0012

Value USD .1234

Value StochS, QEUR=, Bid, Stochastics-Slow %K 8, 3, Simple, 3 08:00 23/11/2011, 25.784 USD StochS, QEUR=, Bid, Stochastics-Slow %D 8, 3, Simple, 3 .123 08:00 23/11/2011, 38.579 15 16 18 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 29 30 02 04 05 06 07 09 11 12 13 14 16 18 19 20 21 23 25 26 27 28 30 01 02 03 04 06 08 09 10 11 13 15 16 17 18 20 22 23 24 25 27

September 2011

October 2011

November 2011

EUR/USD: Euro moved lower from the high of 1.3568 and made a low of 1.3450 before retracing back towards 1.3461.Stochastic on Daily charts is into oversold zone, however MACD continues to be in sell zone & Stochastic on 4 hourly charts is trending lower so a correction can be expected.Resistance is at 11.3531 & 1.3568 and support at 1.3450 & 1.3420.Dip towards 1.3450 will be a good buying level for a target of 1.3530 with a stop of 1.3415.

Geojit Comtrade Ltd.

23 Nov 2011 TECHNICAL UPDATE

GBP/USD ( 1.5618 )
4 Hours QGBP=
BarOHLC, QGBP=, Bid 08:00 23/11/2011, 1.5613, 1.5623, 1.5607, 1.5608 SMA, QGBP Bid(Last), 14 =, 08:00 23/11/2011, 1.5653 16:00 26/08/2011 - 12:00 28/11/2011 (GM T) Price USD 1.63 1.62 1.61

1.6
1.59 1.58 1.57 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.53 .1234 MACD, QGBP Bid(Last), MACD 12, 26, 9, Simple =, 08:00 23/11/2011, -0.005 MACD, QGBP Bid(Last), MACD Signal Line 12, 26, 9, Simple =, StochS, QGBP=, Bid, Stochastics-Slow %K 8, 3, Simple, 3 08:00 23/11/2011, 36.97 StochS, QGBP=, Bid, Stochastics-Slow %D 8, 3, Simple, 3 08:00 23/11/2011, 41.589 28 3031 02 04 06 08 09 11 1314 16 18 20 22 23 25 27 29 Value USD .1234 Value USD .123 02 04 06 09 11 13 16 18 20 23 25 27 28 30 0102 04 06 08 10 11 13 15 16 18 20 22 24 25 27

September 2011

October 2011

November 2011

GBP/USD: GBP moved lower from the high of 1.5691 and made a low of 1.5581 before retracing back towards 1.5618.Stochastic on Daily charts is into oversold zone, however MACD is also into sell zone & Stochastic on 4 hourly charts have turned lower so a correction can be expected.Resistance is at 1.5668/91 & 1.5747 & Support at 1.5598 & 1.5581.Dip towards 1.5598 will be good buying level for a target of 1.5665 with a stop of 1.5570.

USD/JPY ( 77 )
4 Hours QJPY=
BarOHLC, QJPY=, Bid 08:00 23/11/2011, 77, 77.07, 76.97, 77 SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 14 08:00 23/11/2011, 76.93 12:00 22/08/2011 - 12:00 28/11/2011 (GMT) Price USD 79.5 79 78.5 78 77.5 77 76.5 76 .12 MACD, QJPY=, Bid(Last), MACD 12, 26, 9, Simple 08:00 23/11/2011, 0 MACD, QJPY=, Bid(Last), MACD Signal Line 12, 26, 9, Simple StochS, QJPY=, Bid, Stochastics-Slow %K 8, 3, Simple, 3 08:00 23/11/2011, 38.462 StochS, QJPY=, Bid, Stochastics-Slow %D 8, 3, Simple, 3 08:00 23/11/2011, 38.522 23 25 28 30 01 04 06 08 11 13 15 18 20 22 25 27 Value USD .12 Value USD .123 29 02 04 06 09 11 13 16 18 20 23 25 27 30 01 03 06 08 10 13 15 17 20 22 24 27

August 2011

September 2011

October 2011

November 2011

USD/JPY: Pair moved lower from the high of 77.31 and made a low of 76.79 before retracing back towards 77.Stochastic on Daily charts have turned higher from oversold zone and the MACD is still into sell zone & Stochastic on 4 hourly charts is also trending lower so a correction can be expected.Resistance is at 77.31/42 & 77.72 and support at 76.71/79 & 76.46.Rally towards 77.31/42 will be a good selling level for a target of 76.79 with a stop of 77.72.

Geojit Comtrade Ltd.

23 Nov 2011 TECHNICAL UPDATE

USD Index ( 78.45 )
4 Hours Q=USD
BarOHLC, Q=USD, Last Trade 02:59 23/11/2011, 78.452, 78.549, 78.405, 78.454 SMA, Q=USD, Last Trade(Last), 14 02:59 23/11/2011, 78.273 02:59 25/08/2011 - 22:59 28/11/2011 (NYC) P rice 79 78.5 78 77.5 77 76.5 76 75.5

75
74.5 74 73.5 .123 MACD, Q=USD, Last Trade(Last), M ACD 12, 26, 9, Simple 02:59 23/11/2011, 0.109 MACD, Q=USD, Last Trade(Last), M ACD Signal Line 12, 26, 9, Simple 02:59 23/11/2011, 0.11 StochS, Q=USD, Last Trade, Stochastics-Slow %K 8, 3, Simple, 3 02:59 23/11/2011, 72.535 StochS, Q=USD, Last Trade, Stochastics-Slow %D 8, 3, Simple, 3 26 3031 0205 06 08 09 13 14 16 19 21 22 23 27 28 30 03 Value .123 Value .123 05 06 09 1112 1417 1920 23 25 2728 31 02 03 06 08 10 11 15 16 17 20 22 24 25

September 2011

October 2011

November 2011

USD Index: Index moved higher from the low of 77.98 and made a high of 78.55 before retracing back towards 78.45.Stochastic on Daily charts is into overbought zone, however MACD continues to be in the buy zone & Stochastic on 4 hourly charts is trending higher so a further pullback can be expected.Resistance is at 78.52/55 & 78.86 and support at 77.98 & 77.54.Rally towards 78.52 will be a good selling level with a stop of 78.86 for a target of 77.92.

Geojit Comtrade Ltd.

23 Nov 2011

Research Department - Institutional Desk

Hemal Doshi hemal@geojitcomtrade.com Contact: 022-61312119

Geojit Comtrade Ltd.

704 Dev Plaza, Opp Irla Fire Brigade, S.V Road, Andheri ( West ), Mumbai - 400058.

Disclaimer:
The information contained here was gathered from sources deemed reliable; however, no claim is made as to accuracy or content. This does not contain specific recommendations to buy or sell at particular prices or time, nor should any examples presented be deemed as such. There is a risk of loss in commodity trading and commodity options and you should carefully consider your financial position before making a trade. This is not, nor is it intended, to be a complete study of chart patterns or technical analysis and should not be deemed as such. Geojit Comtrade Ltd. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgements at this date and are subject to change without notice. For use at the sole discretion of the investor without any liability on Geojit Comtrade Ltd.

Geojit Comtrade Ltd.