Analytical study on Technical analysis of Selected Automobile Stocks in National Stock Exchange.

INDUSTRY PROFILE: The Financial Services Industry

Financial services Financial services refer to services provided by the finance industry. The finance industry encompasses a broad range of organizations that deal with the management of money. Among these organizations are banks, credit card companies, insurance companies, consumer finance companies, stock brokerages, investment funds and some government sponsored enterprises. The Indian financial system can be divided in to two: 1. Money market 2. Capital market

1. Money Market: Deals with transactions related to short-term instruments with maturity period less than one year. In money market we have further sub division that is organized money market and unorganized money market. The organized sector considers commercial banks while unorganized consider players like money lenders, chits, funds etc. Features of Money Market It is a market purely for short-terms funds It deals with financial assets having a maturity period less than one year only. In Money Market transaction cannot take place formal like stock exchange, only through oral communication, relevant document and written communication transaction can be done. Transactions have to be conducted without the help of brokers. It is not a single homogeneous market, it comprises of several submarket like call money market, bill market etc. The component of Money Market is the commercial banks, acceptance houses & NBFC (Non-banking financial companies).
2

2. Capital Market: Deals with transactions related to long-term instruments with maturity period greater than one year.

CAPITAL MARKETS

PRIMARY MARKETS

SECONDARY MARKETS

PRIMARY MARKETS Primary market is where a company makes its first contact with the public at large in search of capital. Helps companies in raising funds through issue of Money like shares and debentures. Governed by SEBI (Money and Exchange Board of India). Methods of issuing Money in Primary Market: - Public Issue - Rights Issue - Private Placement - Bonus Issue

SECONDARY MARKET A company cannot easily find for its Money (shares and debentures) from the public, if they cannot subsequently trade these shares and debentures at will In other words, a security cannot have a good primary market unless it has an active secondary market. Thus secondary market comprises the buyers and sellers of shares and debentures subsequently to the original issue. India being the second fastest growing economy after China requires a huge capital investment in its various sectors to sustain its various sectors to sustain its growth and expansion. Naturally the capital market is inevitable for these phenomena. Money already issued in the primary market is traded in the secondary market. Provides liquidity to the Money held by the investors. Operates through stock exchanges that regulate the trading activities in this market.

Stock Exchange Stock Exchange means anybody of individuals whether incorporated or not constituted for the purpose of regulation or controlling the business of buying, selling or dealing in Money.

HISTORY OF STOCK EXCHANGE IN INDIA The origin of the stock exchange in India can be traced back to the later of 19 th century. After the American civil war (1860-61) due to the share mania of the public, the number of brokers dealing in shares increased. The brokers organized an informal association in Mumbai named The Native Stock and Share Brokers Association in 1875.

Increased activity in trade and commerce during the First World War and Second World War resulted in an increase in the stock trading. Stock exchanges were established in different centers like Chennai, Delhi, Nagpur, Kanpur, Hyderabad and Bangalore. The growth
4

of stock exchange suffered a setback after the end of World War. Worldwide depression affected them. Most of the stock exchanges in early stage had a speculative nature of working without technical strength. Money and control resolution Act, 1956 gave power to the central government to regulate the stock exchange. The stock exchanges in Mumbai, Calcutta, Chennai, Ahmadabad, Delhi, Hyderabad, and Indore were recognized by the SCR Act. The Bangalore stock exchange was recognized only in 1963. At present we have 23 stock exchanges and 21 of them had hardware and software compliant to solve Y2k problem. Till recent past, floor trading took place in all stock exchanges. In the floor trading system, the trade takes place through open outcry system during the official trading hours. Trading posts are assigned for different Money where buy and sell activities of Money took place. This system needs a face to face contact among the traders and restricts the trading volume. The speed of new information reflected on the prices was rather slow. The deals were also not transparent and the system favored the brokers rather than the investors.

MAJOR STOCK EXCHANGES Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) National Stock Exchange (NSE)

BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE (BSE)

The origin of the Bombay (Mumbai) Stock Exchange dates back to 1875. It was organized under the name of The Native Stock and Share Brokers Association as a voluntary and nonprofit making association. It was recognized on a permanent basis in1975. This premier stock exchange is the oldest stock exchange in Asia. The objectives of the stock exchange are. To safeguard the interest of investing public having dealing on the exchange. To establish and promote honorable and just practices in Money transactions. To promote, develop and maintain well regulated market for dealing in Money. To promote industrial development in the country through efficient resource mobilization by the way of investment in corporate Money.

NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE (NSE)

The national Stock Exchange (NSE) of India became operational in the capital market segment on 3rd, November 1994 in Mumbai. The genesis of the NSE lies in the recommendations of the Pherwani Committee (1991). Apart from NSE, it had recommended for the establishment of National Stock Market System also. The main objectives of the NSE are as follows. To establish a nationwide trading facility for equities, debt instruments and hybrids. To ensure equal access to investors all over the country appropriate communication network. To provide a fair, efficient and transparent Money market to investors using an electronic communication network. To enable shorter settlement cycle and book entry settlement system. To meet current international standards of Money market.

Company profile Reliance capital Reliance Capital, a constituent of CNX Nifty Junior and MSCI India, is a part of the Reliance Group. It is one of India's leading and amongst most valuable financial services companies in the private sector. Reliance Capital has interests in asset management and mutual funds; life and general insurance; commercial finance; equities and commodities broking; investment banking; wealth management services; distribution of financial products; exchanges; private equity; asset reconstruction; proprietary investments and other activities in financial services. Reliance Mutual Fund is amongst top two Mutual Funds in India with over seven million investor folios. Reliance Life Insurance and Reliance General Insurance are amongst the leading private sector insurers in India. Reliance Money is one of Indias leading retail broking houses. Reliance Money is one of Indias leading distributors of financial products and services. Reliance Capital has a net worth of Rs. 7,902 crore (US$ 1.5 billion) and total assets of Rs. 31,488 crore (US$ 6 billion) as on December 31, 11. Reliance group companies Asset Management Insurance Commercial Finance Life Insurance, General Insurance Mortgages, Loans against Property , SME Loans, Loans for Commercial Vehicles, Loans for Construction Equipment, Auto Loans, Business Loans, Infrastructure financing
8

Mutual Fund, Offshore Fund, Pension fund, Portfolio Management

Broking and Distribution

Equities, Commodities and Derivatives, Wealth Management Services, Portfolio Management Services, Investment Banking, Foreign Exchange, Third Party Products

Other Businesses Exchanges, Private Equity, Institutional Broking, Asset Reconstruction, Venture Capital

Reliance Money Reliance Money is a subsidiary company of Reliance Capital one of India's leading and fastest growing private sector financial services company, ranking among the top 3 private sector financial services and banking companies . In terms of net worth Reliance Money is a part of the Reliance AnilDhirubhaiAmbani Group. Reliance Money is a comprehensive electronic transaction platform offering a wide range of asset classes. It send change the way India transacts in financial markets and avails financial services. Reliance Money is a single window, enabling you to access, amongst others in Equities, Equity &Commodities Derivatives, Mutual Funds, IPOs, Life and General Insurance products, Offshore Investments. Money Transfer, Money Changing and Credit Cards.

10

Nature of Business Carried:

The business carried out in the Reliance Money is service in nature as well as advisory services in selecting investment avenues and as a broking agency facilitate for both online and offline trading and circulates technical and fundamental report to its investor as a an advise. The company offers a complete range of pre trade, trade and post trade service on the BSE (Bombay stock exchange) and NSE (National stock exchange) .Whether the client come in to the companys conventionally located offices and tread in a dedicated environment or issue instructions over the phone or online trading ,our highly trained team and sophisticated equipment ensure smooth transactions and prompt service.

It is one stop shop for all investment needs for the Indian retail investors, from advice to execution online well as offline . They deal with Equity trading, wealth Management, private Equity, portfolio management services etc. .From advice to execution in financial services. Today they are a well-diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services

VISION "The most profitable, innovative, and most trusted financial services company in India and in the emerging markets". In achieving this vision, the company will be both customer-centric and innovation-driven. MISSION Ethical practices and transparency in all our dealings customers interest about our own analysis deliver what we promise effective cost management

11

QUALITY POLICY We are committed to being the leader in providing World Class Products and Services which exceed the expectation of our customers Achieved by team work and a process of continuous improvement.

CRM POLICY A Customer is the most important visitor of our premises. He is not dependent on us but we are dependent on him. He is not interruption in our work, but is the purpose of it. We are not doing him a favour by serving. He is doing us a favour by giving us an opportunity to do so.

BUSINESS PHILOSOPHY Ethical practices & transparency in all our dealings Customers interest above our own Always deliver what we promise Effective cost management

LOGO OF THE COMPANY

12

PRODUCT/ SERVICES PROFLIE Products/ Services of RELIANCE MONEY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Online Trading , E-Broking Commodities Depository Participant Services PMS (Portfolio Management Services) Life Insurance Reliance Money Investor, Reliance Money Trade Investment Advisory Services Mutual funds Fundamental Services Technical Services

1. Online Trading Specially designed for the net savvy traders and investors who prefer operating from their home or office through the internet. The investor can access state of the art Technology with three different e-broking products and voila trading on BSE, NSE, F & O, MCX and NCDEX.

E-Broking Angle has different products and voila trading on BSE, NSE, F&O, MCX& NCDEX. It provides softwares customers for online trading.

13

2. COMMODITIES A commodity is a basic good representing a monetary value. Commodities are most often used as inputs in the production of other goods or services. With the advent of new online exchange, commodities can now be traded in futures markets. When they are traded on an exchange, Commodities must also meet specified minimum standards known as basic grade. Types of Commodities Precious Metals Base Metals Energy Pulses Spices Others : Gold and Silver : Copper, Zinc , Steel and Aluminum : Crude Oil, Brent Crude and Natural Gas : Chana ,Urad and Tur : Black Pepper, Jeera, Turmeric , Red Chili : Guar Complex, Soy Complex, Wheat and Sugar

3. Depository Participant Services Reliance Money. is a DP services provider though CDSL. We offer depository services to create a seamless transaction platform to execute trades through Reliance Money group of companies and settle these transactions through Reliance Money Depository services. Wide branch coverage Personalized/attentive services of trained a dedicated staff Centralized billing & accounting Acceptance & execution of instruction on fax Daily statement of transaction & holdings statement on e-mail No charges for extra transaction statement & holdings statement

14

4. PMS (Portfolio Management Services)

Successful investing in Capital Markets demands ever more time and expertise. Investment Management is an art and a science in itself. Portfolio Management Services (PMS) is one such service that is fast gaining eminence as an investment avenue of choice for High Net worth Investors (HNI). PMS is a sophisticated investment vehicle that offers a range of specialized investment strategies to capitalize on opportunities in the market. The Portfolio Management Service combined with competent fund management, dedicated research and technology, ensures a rewarding experience for its clients.

Reliance PMS brings with it years of experience, expertise, research and the backing of India's leading stock broking house. At Reliance Money, experienced portfolio management is the difference. It will advise you on a suitable product based on factors such as your investment horizon, return expectations and risk tolerance.

5. Life Insurance Ensure your familys well-being by securing their future with a life insurance policy. No financial planning is complete without life insurance. Reliance Money offers an array of life insurance products like Term Plans, Endowment Plans, Money back Plans, Children Life Insurance Plans and ULIP Plans to meet your individual insurance requirements.

15

6. Reliance Money Investor, Reliance Money Trade, Reliance Money Diet RELIANCE MONEY INVESTOR User-friendly browser for investors Easy online trading platform Works in proxy and firewall system set up Integrated Back office: Access account information anytime, anywhere Streaming quotes Refresh static rates when required Multiple exchanges on single screen Online fund transfer facility

RELIANCE MONEYTRADE: Browser based for investor No installation required Advantage of mobility Trading as simple as internet surfing BSE, NSE, F&O, MCX & NCDEX

16

RELIANCE MONEY DIET: Application based product for Traders. Application based ideal for traders. Multiple exchanges on single screen Online fund transfer facility User friendly & simple navigation BSE, NSE, F&O, MCX & NCDEX

7. Investment Advisory Services To derive optimum returns from equity as an asset class requires professional guidance and advice. Professional assistance will always be beneficial in wealth creation. Investment decisions without expert advice would be like treating ailment without the help of a doctor. Expert Advice: Their expert investment advisors are based at various branches across

India to provide assistance in designing and monitoring portfolios. Timely Entry & Exit: Their advisors will regularly monitor customers investments and

guide customers to book timely profits. They will also guide them in adopting switching techniques from one stock to another during various market conditions. De-Risking Portfolio: A diversified portfolio of stocks is always better than concentration

in a single stock. Based on their research, They diversify the portfolio in growth oriented sectors and stocks to minimize the risk and optimize the returns.

17

8. Mutual funds To enable client to diversify their investment in the right direction. Reliance Money Broking has added another product in its range with mutual funds. Access to in-depth research & proper selection from diversified funds based on your preferred criteria. Rating and ranking of all mutual funds from our in house expert analysts.

9. Fundamental Services The Sunday Weekly Report : This weekly report is the ace of all reports. It offers a comprehensive market overview and likely trends in the week ahead. It also presents few top picks based on an in-depth analysis of technical and fundamental factors. It gives short term and long term outlook on these scrips, their price targets and trading strategies. Another unique feature of this report is that it provides an updated view of about 70 prominent stocks on an ongoing basis.

Stock Analysis : Reliance Moneys stock research has performed very well over the past few years and the Reliance Money Model Portfolio has consistently outperformed the benchmark indices. The fundamentals of select scrips are thoroughly analyzed and an actionable advice is provided along with investment rationale for each scrip.

18

Flash News : Key developments and significant news announcements that are likely to have an impact on markets / scrips are flashed live on trading terminals. Flash news keeps the market participants updated on an online basis and helps them to reshuffle on their holdings.

10. Technical Services Intraday Calls : For day traders, Reliance Money provides intra-day calls with entry, exit and stop loss levels during market hours. These calls are flashed on their terminals. Their analysts continuously track the calls and provide recommendations according to the market movements.

Position Calls : Reliance Moneys Position Trading Calls are based on thorough analysis of the price movement in select scrips. These calls are for a 10-15 day time span with stop loss and target levels. These calls are flashed on their terminals during market hours. Derivative Strategies : Their analysts take view on the Nifty and select stocks based on the derivatives data and technical tools. Suitable Derivative Strategies are devised, which are flashed on their terminals and published in their reports. Futures Calls : A customized product for HNIs to help them trade with leveraged position; wherein clients are advised on the stocks with entry, exit and stop loss level for short term benefits. Over and above this, financial status of the calls is monitored at all times.

19

2.5) AREA OF OPERATION National The Reliance Money Broking agency will conduct its operation nationwide through its number of Branches located around the country. Regional The area of operation of Regional Branch in which I carried out project for two months is regionally, in and around Mysore city.

OWNERSHIP PATTERN Shri Anil D. Ambani, regarded as one of the foremost corporate leaders of contemporary India, Shri Anil D. Ambani, is the Chairman of Reliance Capital Limited, Reliance Infrastructure Limited, Reliance Communications Limited and Reliance Power Limited. He is also on the Board of Reliance Infratel Limited and Reliance Anil DhirubhaiAmbani Group Limited. He is the President of the DhirubhaiAmbani Institute of Information and Communication Technology, Gandhinagar, Gujarat. An MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, ShriAmbani is credited with pioneering several path-breaking financial innovations in the Indian capital markets. He spearheaded the countrys first forays into overseas capital markets with international public offerings of global depositary receipts, convertibles and bonds. Under his Chairmanship, the constituent companies of the Reliance Group have raised nearly US$ 7 billion from global financial markets in a period of less than 3 years. ShriAmbani has been associated with a number of prestigious academic institutions in India and abroad.

20

Management Reliance Money

Vikrant Gugnani - Executive director Sanjay Wadhwa - Chief Financial Officer Suresh T Vishwanathan - Head Compliance Hitesh Agrawal - Head Research COMPETITORS INFORMATION In formulating business strategy, managers must consider the strategies of the firms competitors. While in highly fragmented commodity industries the moves of any single competitor may be less important, in concentrated industries competitor analysis becomes a vital part of strategic planning. Some major players are Religare Money, ICICI Direct , India Infoline Money Pvt. Ltd, HDFC Money , Indiabulls , Kotak Money ,Angel Broking pvt ltd , Sharekhan Money, MotilalOswal , AnandRathi Money , Hem Money .

Name of Firm

Intraday (In Paisa)

Delivery (In Paisa) 50 50 25 30 25 75 30

DMAT In ,Rs 950 650 850 650 805 499 890

Margin Money(Rs) 5000 5000 10000 5000 5000 5000 0

Reliance Money Angel Broking pvt Ltd Share khan Money MotilalOswal Money Indian info line ICICI Direct India Bulls

5 5 5 3 3 7.5 3

21

Kotak Money AnandRathi Money

3 3

30 20

300 736

5000 0

Note: Margin Money will differ according to the company policy and customers trading activity.

INFRASTRUCTURAL FACLITIES The Head office are located approximately 4000 square feet of office space located in H-Block 1st Floor, DhirubhaiAmbani Knowledge City, New Mumbai , Maharashtra 400710. As on march 31 11, we have 6233branches across India .The One Of The branch of the company is located approximately 800 square feet of office space located in Mysore ,Karnataka ,India, The company provides all facilities stated. Rest Rooms and Lockers Security Cool and Clean Drinking water Proper Lighting and ventilation Enough place for Parking

22

ACHIVEMENT AND AWARDS

Reliance Money has been rated no. 1 by Starcom Worldwide for online security and cost effectiveness in 2007

'Debutant Franchisor of the Year' at the 5th International Franchisee & Retail show 2007 'Best in category Service Franchise' at the 6th International Franchise & Retail show 2008 'Best E-Brokerage Houser 2008' (runner's up) by Outlook Money NDTV Profit Awards 'Largest E-Broking House & Best Equity Broking House for the year 2009' by Dun & Bradstreet 'Largest E-Broking House 2010' by Dun & Bradstreet 'My FM Stars of the Industry 11' for excellence in Online Demat Reliance Money Limited is now ISO 9001:2008 certified for Online Trading Platform 'Brand Leadership Legacy Award' at the Asian Leadership Awards - Dubai,

23

Work Flow Model

Under buy the workflow is models as under The cheque will be accepted then it will be deposited into d-mat account. Then the amount will be transferred to trading account .Then the order for the purchase of Money will be made with the amount available by quoting the price per share and the quantity. After the shares purchased automatically the amount will be credited from the account. After settlement is over the shares will transferred to D-mat account. Under sell the work flow model is as under

24

When the investor wants to sell his Money then the sales will be placed by quoting the selling price per share and the quantity that has to be sold .After the shares sold automatically the amount will be debited to the account and if the investor wants he can invest again or the amount can be transferred to his bank account which the investor prefers.

Future Growth and prospectus In the near future we see Reliance Money growing substantially Reliance Money opening offices at strategic places for commodity trading and equity markets across India. In the process of setting up Internet based trading which should open up new vistas for our operations. Plans to offer conceivable financial services to clients. New initiatives Portfolio management Services and commodities trading

25

MCKENSYS 7S FRAME WORK

The Seven S Framework first appeared in "The Art of Japanese Management" by Richard Pascale and Anthony Athos in 1981. They had been looking at how Japanese industry had been so successful, at around the same time that Tom Peters and Robert Waterman were exploring what made a company excellent. The Seven S model was born at a meeting of the four authors in 1978. It went on to appear in "In Search of Excellence" by Peters and Waterman, and was taken up as a basic tool by the global management consultancy McKinsey: it's sometimes known as the McKinsey 7S model.

These seven elements are distinguished as, so called, hard Ss and soft Ss. The hard elements are feasible and easy to identify. They can be found in strategy statements, corporate plans, organizational charts and documentation. The four soft Ss however, are hardly feasible. They are difficult to describe since capabilities, values, and elements of corporate culture are continuously developing and changing. They are highly determined by the people at work in the organization. Therefore, it is much more difficult to plan or to influence the characteristics of the soft elements.

26

The 3Ss across the top of the model are described as 'Hard Ss' Strategy: The direction and scope of the company over the long term. Structure: The basic organization of the company, its departments, reporting lines, areas of expertise, and responsibility (and how they inter-relate). Systems: Formal and informal procedures that govern everyday activity, covering everything from management information systems, through to the systems at the point of contact with the customer (retail systems, call centre systems, online systems, etc).

The 4Ss across the bottom of the model are less tangible, more cultural in nature, and were termed 'Soft Ss' by McKinsey: Skills: The capabilities and competencies that exist within the company. What it does best. Shared values: The values and beliefs of the company. Ultimately they guide employees towards 'valued' behavior. Staff:The Companys people resources and how they are developed, trained, and motivated. Style: The leadership approach of top management and the company's overall operating approach.

THE 7-S-MODEL WITH REFERENCE TO RELIANCE MONEY The Hard S's Strategy-Actions a company plans in response to or anticipation of changes in its External environment. Being a company of stature it cannot afford to work without objectives. An overall group objective is already set and all the employees are driven towards that Reliance Money believes that "no individual is a big as the organization itself. Competition is the key to survival and for giving diversification for the given product as such competition is always good.

27

Reliance Money updates itself of the surrounding competition and brings out in the service and related products to beat the competition.

Structure -Basis for specialization and co-ordination influenced primarily by Strategy and by organization size and diversity

Systems- Formal and informal procedures that support the strategy and Structure. The organization follows strict rules and regulations for the employees. It follows specific entry and exit timing for all its employees. Each employee has to follow a specific dress code depending on his line or work or duty. All junior staff members will have to report to the designated senior staff member daily attendance register to the H R department, which is duly processed at the end of each month.

28

The Soft S's Style- The culture of the organization, consisting of two components: Organizational Culture: the dominant values and beliefs, and Norms, which develop over time and become relatively enduring Features of organizational life. Management Style: more a matter of what managers do than what they say; how do a company's managers spend their time? What are they focusing attention on? Symbolism- the creation and Maintenance of meaning is fundamental

responsibility of Managers. Its chairman who sits at the Head Office in Mumbai heads the organization. At all other branches across. The chairman will take decisions related to the Group as such. Regional heads will take all other decisions relevant to the regions and their line of work. Each and every manager is responsible and accountable for his or her decisions and subsequent Implementations. By and large the decisions making are decentralized for day-to-day affairs. Only keyDecisions are made the Head Office. Staff -The people/ human resource management-processes used to develop managers, Socialization Processes, ways of shaping basic Values of management cadre, ways of introducing young recruits to the Company, ways of helping to manage the careers of employees. Each incumbent should have a specific Academic qualification to match the position he she is going to held. And also necessary skill to execute the assignment. Marketing/Sales people should possess at least a degree and a management degree a Preferred and should necessity process good communication skill and flair for sales. He or she should also have a two-wheeler for commuting purposes. All the back-end employees should have at least Graduation with exposure to necessary skills. For freshers due training will be given and then will be put in the jobs. Their potential will be monitored on a regular basis and will be given suitable guidance from Time to time. Annual increments are also given based on the performance predominant and Reliance Money has a mix of marketing and back end employees. The emphasis is more for service since it is a service Industry. Marketing and sales staff is trained on the product knowledge and selling skills are also taught.

29

Skills-The distinctive-Competences what the company does best, ways of expanding or shifting competences. A manager is normally viewed as a skilled person who has the ability to manage people and resources and at times finance also. He or she will be responsible to identity right People for the right job and get the work done effectively. Minimum wastages and maximum utilization of available resources is the key organizational behavior and culture is taught to the fellow employees and potential employees are suitably nurtured. Super-ordinate Goal Guiding concepts, fundamental ideas around which a business is built must be simple, usually stated at abstract level, have great meaning inside the organization even though out siders may not see or understand them. Our mission to be a leading, preferred service provides to our customer, and we aim to achieve this leadership position by building an innovative, enterprising and technology driven organization which will set the highest standards of service and business ethics.

SWOT ANALYSIS STRENGTHS Nationwide Network of branches. Renowned brand name in financial product distribution. Multi product activities in Financial products. 1 in top 5 stockbrokers in the country. Strong brand recall among retail investor Reach (mass marketing). WEAKNESS All employees lack multi product skill despite being multi Product Company. Systems (infrastructure) up gradation still not up to the mark.

30

OPPORTUNITY Can make use of sustained growth In retail segment of financial products. Due to high awareness of financial products among general public business growth could be higher. Can make use of technology to market products (e-selling).

THREATS Increased competition from contemporaries in the market. Decreasing margins by way of commission.

Analysis of financial statement Consolidated Balance Sheet of Reliance Capital (Rs In Crores)

Paticulars Sources Of Funds Total Share Capital Equity Share Capital Share Application Money Preference Share Capital Reserves Revaluation Reserves Networth Secured Loans

31 March 11

31March 2010

246.16 246.16 0.00 0.00 6,781.53 0.00 7,027.69 13,646.11

246.16 246.16 0.00 0.00 6,712.90 0.00 6,959.06 6,522.02

31

Unsecured Loans Total Debt Total Liabilities Application Of Funds Gross Block Less: Accum. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work in Progress Investments Inventories Sundry Debtors Cash and Bank Balance Total Current Assets Loans and Advances Fixed Deposits Total CA, Loans & Advances Deffered Credit Current Liabilities Provisions Total CL & Provisions Net Current Assets Miscellaneous Expenses Total Assets Contingent Liabilities Book Value (Rs)

4,836.91 18,483.02 25,510.71

5,436.13 11,958.15 18,917.21

157.34 78.32 79.02 110.03 11,166.66 0.00 16.69 833.19 849.88 13,995.42 337.97 15,183.27 0.00 896.30 201.39 1,097.69 14,085.58 69.42 25,510.71 1,225.77 286.11

211.20 125.69 85.51 82.25 10,676.04 0.00 121.23 227.09 348.32 8,722.86 165.25 9,236.43 0.00 1,028.12 208.27 1,236.39 8,000.04 73.37 18,917.21 274.06 283.31

Note: Reliance Money is part of the Reliance Capital

32

Learning Experience The experience of under taking a study at RELIANCE MONEY, helped in developing an understanding the overall functioning of an organization in sum and functions of the various departments, their interactions and how these functions and their interactions have a bearing on the performance of the organization. The understanding of the decision making process, parameters that need to be considered, the process of implementing decisions, the designing of the organization structure and issues such as staffing, skills identification and development, development of shared values, etc in addition to the inter-relationships between the external and internal environment was significant.

The process of collection of information about the company and the industry as well, was in itself a very important learning, making sense of the information collected and present the same yet another important learning experience. Overall the study at RELIANCE MONEY was a satisfactory and a challenging learning experience.

33

PART B

34

GENERAL INTRODUCTION

The project on A STUDY ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF AUTOMOBILE STOCKS being carried out for RELIANCE MONEY LTD, for analyzing investment opportunities available in Automobile stocks listed on stock exchange for long term prospect to the investors. Technical analysis is the use of numerical series generated by market activity, such as price and volume, to predict future price trends. The techniques applied to any market with a comprehensive price history.

Technical Analysis is a method of evaluating Money by analyzing the statistics generated by market activity, such as fast prices and volume. Technical analysis does not give the intrinsic value of a security, but instead it includes charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity. The rationale behind the technical analysis is that the share price behavior repeats itself over time and analysts attempt to derive methods to predict any patterns.

He looks at the current price data to see if any of the established patterns are applicable and if so, extra extrapolations can be made to predict the future price movements. Although past share prices are the major data used by technical analysis, other statistics such as volume of trading and market indices are also utilized to some extent.

Technical analysis studies supply and demand in a market in an attempt to determine what direction or trend will continue in the future. In other words, technical analysis attempts to understand the emotions in the market by studying the market itself as opposed to its components.

35

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM : The study is undertaken to compare the selected technical analysis tools available for forecasting. The study tries to capture the contradicting views of different tool used in technical analysis. This study is aims to exploration of the topic technical analysis and its relevance.

Technical analysis is one of tool used to analysis stocks to make decisions (buy, hold and sell) but , technical analysis along cannot prove to be device. So, it can be used as a supplement to fundamental analysis.

Technical analysis is very important to invest smartly. Every investor would like to have handful information to decide: On what type of security to invest? When it should be bought? When it should be sold? Whether to hold the security?

The basic idea behind the research is to make buy, hold and sell decisions of stocks. To make this decision one should have some information base .The increasing trend towards complexity in investment decisions calls for security analysis.

36

OBJECTIVE OF STUDY: Primary Objective: To Study the price fluctuations of Automobile Stocks in Indian Stock Market To Identify the stocks which are best to be invested using Technical Analysis. To study how best we can analyze the stocks using Technical Analysis.

SCOPE OF STUDY: Technical analysis of market data has long been a pervasive activity in both security and future markets. Technical analysis believe that price and volume data provide indicators of future price movements, and that by examining these data, information may be extracted on the fundamentals driving returns. If markets are efficient in the sense that the current price impound s all information then such activity is clearly pointless. But if process by which prices adjust to information is not immediate, then the market statistics may impound information that is not yet incorporated in to the current market price The study mainly focuses on guiding the investors in making decisions (buy, hold or sell) by determine the value of the stocks through technical analysis. The analysis has been done on five stocks of Automobile sector companies listed at Bombay Stock Exchange. Out of various tools of technical analysis only there such tools are used in this study. To help the investor in marking decisions based on report. Help to identify trend reversal at an earlier stage to formulate the buying and selling strategy.
37

RESEARCH METHODOGY

TYPE OF STUDY The research has been based on secondary data analysis. The study has been exploratory as it aims at examining the secondary data for analyzing the previous researches that have been done in the area of technical analysis of stocks. The knowledge thus gained from this preliminary study forms the basis for the further detailed Descriptive research. In the exploratory study, the various technical indicators that are important for analyzing stock were actually identified and important ones short listed.

SAMPLE DESIGN The sample of the stocks for the purpose of collecting secondary data has been selected on the basis of Random Sampling. The stocks are chosen in an unbiased manner and each stock is chosen independent of the other stocks chosen.

SAMPLE SIZE The sample size for the number of stocks is taken as 5 for technical analysis. Tata Motors Limited Mahindra and Mahindra Bajaj Auto TVS Motors Limited Hero Motocorp

38

METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION The task of data collection begins after a research problem has been defined and research design plan chalked out. While deciding about the method of data collection to be used for the study, the researcher has kept in mind two types of data, primary and secondary.The primary data are those which are collected afresh and for the first time, and thus happen to be original in character. The secondary data, on the other hand, are those which have already been collected by someone else and which have already been passed through the statistical process.

COLLECTION OF PRIMARY DATA: 1.Observation Method.

COLLECTION OF SECONDARY DATA; 1. Websites like Money Control, Angel broking, Thomson Reuters 2. Magazines related to stock market like Dalai street, money life, Business Today. 3. Books related to Security analysis and portfolio management.

Limitations of Study: To understand the overall working of share market, the period of 10 weeks is not enough. Moreover, very few investor and agents have a detail knowledge of the study. The data provided by the investor and the agents cant be held true as 100%correct.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
39

Technical analysis is a method of evaluating the Money by analyzing the statistics generated by the market activity, such as past price and volume. In technical analysis, analysts use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity. Just as there are many investment styles on fundamental side, there is also much different type of technical traders. Some rely on chart patterns. In any case, technical analysts exclusive use of historical price and volume data is what separates them from their fundamental counterparts. Unlike fundamental analysis technical analysts dont care whether a stock is undervalued the only thing that matter is a securitys past trading data and what information this data can provide about where the security might move in the future

Assumptions: 1. The Market Discounts Everything:

A major criticism of technical analysis is that it only considers price movement, ignoring the fundamental factors of the company. However, technical analysis assumes that, at any given a time, a stocks price reflects everything that has or could affect the company- including Fundamental Factors. Technical analysts believe that the companys fundamentals, along with broader economic factors and market psychology, are all priced into the stock, removing the need to actually consider these factors separately. This only leaves the analysis of price movement, which technical theory views as a product of supply and demand for a particular stock in the market.

2. Price Moves In Trends:

40

In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow trends. This means that after a trend has been established, the future price movement is more likely to be in the same direction as the trend that to be against it. Most technical trading strategies are based on this assumption.

3. History Tends To Repeat Itself:

Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself, mainly in terms of price movement. The repetitive nature of price movement is attributed to market psychology; in other words, market participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to similar market stimuli over time. Technical analysis uses chats Patterns to analyze market movements and understand trends. Although many of these charts have been use for more than 100 years they are still believed to be relevant because they illustrate patterns in price movements that often repeat , themselves .

41

Line charts : A style of charts that is created by connecting a series of data points together with a line. This is the most basic type of charts used in finance and connecting a series of past prices together with a line generally creates it.

42

Bar chart : A style of chart used by some technical analysts, on whom as illustrated below, the top of the vertical line indicates the highest price a security traded at during the day, and the bottom represents the lowest price. The closing price is displayed on the right side of the bar, and the opening price is shown on the left side of the bar. A single bar like the one below represents one day of trading.

43

Candlestick A price chart that displays the high, low, open and close for a security each day over a specified period of time. Candlestick patterns have become the single most accurate means of identifying the ever obscure current state of price action . By virtue of open, close, high, low and those relative to the previous bar candlestick charts are the best way for a trader to identify excellent trade opportunities

44

Trends Bull Trends A bull trend is identified by a series of rallies where each rally exceeds the highest point of the previous rally. The decline, between rallies, ends above the lowest point of the previous decline. Successive higher highs and higher lows.

The start of an up trend is signaled when price makes a higher low (trough), followed by a rally above the previous high (peak): Start = higher Low + break above previous High. The end is signaled by a lower high (peak), followed by a decline below the previous low (trough): End = lower High + break below previous Low.

A bear trend starts at the end of a bull trend: when a rally ends with a lower peak and then retreats below the previous low. The end of a bear trend is identical to the start of a bull trend.
45

Large Corrections A large correction occurs when price falls below the previous low (during a bull trend) or where price rises above the previous high (in a bear trend).

A bull trend starts when price rallies above the previous high, A bull trend ends when price declines below the previous low, A bear trend starts at the end of a bull trend (and vice versa).

Technical tools used for the study are Chart Line chart

INDICATORS Moving average Relative strength index.

46

Moving average: An indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a security's price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance.

Relative strength Index: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an extremely useful and popular momentum oscillator . The RSI compares the magnitude of a stocks recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100. It takes a single parameter, the number of time periods to use in the calculation. Calculation: Relative Strength Index = 100-100(1/RS) Relative Strength = Average gain / Average loss Average gain = Total gain /n Average loss = Total loss/n N= number of RIS periods. The RIS ranges from 0 to 100. An asset is to be overbought once the RIS approaches the 70 levels, meaning that it may be bring overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise if the RIS approaches 30 , it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued

Analysis Tata Motors Limited:

47

Tata Motors Limited is India's largest automobile company, with consolidated revenues of INR 1,23,133 crores (USD 27 billion) in 2010-11. It is the leader in commercial vehicles in each segment, and among the top three in passenger vehicles with winning products in the compact, midsize car and utility vehicle segments. The company is the world's fourth largest truck manufacturer, and the world's third largest bus manufacturer. The company's over 25,000 employees are guided by the vision to be ''best in the manner in which we operate, best in the products we deliver, and best in our value system and ethics.'' Established in 1945, Tata Motors' presence indeed cuts across the length and breadth of India. Over 6.5 million Tata vehicles ply on Indian roads, since the first rolled out in 1954. The company's manufacturing base in India is spread across Jamshedpur (Jharkhand), Pune (Maharashtra), Lucknow (Uttar Pradesh), Pantnagar (Uttarakhand), Sanand (Gujarat) and Dharwad (Karnataka). Following a strategic alliance with Fiat in 2005, it has set up an industrial joint venture with Fiat Group Automobiles at Ranjangaon (Maharashtra) to produce both Fiat and Tata cars and Fiat powertrains. The company's dealership, sales, services and spare parts network comprises over 3,500 touch points; Tata Motors also distributes and markets Fiat branded cars in India. Tata Motors, the first company from India's engineering sector to be listed in the New York Stock Exchange (September 2004), has also emerged as an international automobile company. Through subsidiaries and associate companies, Tata Motors has operations in the UK, South Korea, Thailand, Spain and South Africa. Among them is Jaguar Land Rover, a business comprising the two iconic British brands that was acquired in 2008.

Three Month Moving Average and Return for Tata Motors (Table No.1)
48

Month

Return(%)

3Month Moving Average(%)

Month

Return(%)

3 Month Moving Average(%)

Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11

15.6092 -13.4079 4.4765 9.342 17.8304 8.1083 5.4045 5.1955 6.1788 -13.0772 -6.1751 13.7192 2.2259 0.1368 10.5496 11.7602 10.4477 6.2361 5.6096 -0.5676 -4.3578 -1.8443 2.1154

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

-1.1977 -11.8951 -9.3333 -5.825 -22.2536 -79.2143 28.613 -11.6999 -1.4364 33.8461 10.6209 4.8748

0.2088 -70.4573 -9.0178 -12.4706 -35.7643 -24.2489 -20.767 5.1589 6.9032 14.3354 16.4472

49

Graph No .01

3month moving average

20 10 0

Aug-10

Dec-10

Aug-11

Dec-11

Apr-10

Apr-11

Jun-10

Oct-10

Jun-11

Feb-11

Oct-11

Feb-12

-10 -20 -30 -40

3month moving average

Technical Analysis: The Moving Average Indicator is a very useful Technical indicator , and is subjected to several conventional interpretations which can all be useful depending on trading and investment philosophies. From the above graph, there is a bullish trend starting from Mid-May 10 to Dec 10 and Nov11 to Feb 12 it indicates to sell the stocks . From Mar 11 to Aug 11 there is bearish trend which indicates to buy stocks.

50

Relative Strength Index(RSI): (Table No.2) (Amount In Rs) Month Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Price 872.85 754.65 778.35 846.15 1,007.45 1,097.30 1,159.45 1,237.10 1,306.30 1,148.25 1,081.80 1,247.50 165.7 23.7 91.5 161.3 251.3 62.15 77.65 69.2 150.05 66.45 118.2 Gain Loss Month Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Price 1,229.10 1,092.50 993.5 947.4 741.7 156.1 198.45 172.45 178.4 243.6 270.8 282.9 5.95 65.2 27.2 12.1 1055.3/23 =45.88 RS =45.88/63.13=0.7267 RSI =100-(100/1+RS) =100-(100/1+0.7267) =100-57.9139 = 42.08% The Observe the Tata Motors Ltd RSI Table for April 10 to Mar 12 Price Shown above. Tata Motors Ltd had showed a significant rise in the shares price . With Split in shares in Sept 2011 has made the company shares on demand . Hence it is advised to hold the shares of Tata Motors Ltd for longer term for better return. 1452.1/23 =63.13 42.35 26 Gain Loss 18.4 136.6 99 46.1 205.7 585.6

Average Total of Gain or Loss

51

TVS Motor Company

TVS Motor Company is the third largest two-wheeler manufacturer in India and one among the top ten in the world, with annual turnover of more than USD 1 billion in 2008-2009, and is the flagship company of the USD 4 billion TVS Group. TVS Motor Company Limited (BSE: 532343, NSE: TVSMOTOR) is the fourth largest twowheeler manufacturer in India. It is the flagship company of the parent TVS Group employing over 40,000 people with an estimated 15 million customers. It manufactures motorcycles, scooters, mopeds and auto rickshaws. It is India's only two-wheeler company to have won the Deming Prize awarded for commitment to quality control, received in 2002. TVS Motor traces its origins back to the entrepreneurial spirit of Trichur Vengaram Sundaram Iyengar who gave up lucrative careers in the Indian Railwaysand in banking to set up his own business. He began with Madurai's first bus service in 1911 and founded T.V.Sundaram Iyengar and Sons Limited, a company that consolidated its presence in the transportation business with a large fleet of trucks and buses under the name of Southern Roadways Limited.When he died in 1955 his sons took the company ahead with several forays in the automobile sector, including finance, insurance, manufacture of two-wheelers, tyres and components. The group has managed to run 33 companies that account for a combined turnover of nearly $3 billion. Over the years TVS Motor has grown to be the largest in the group, both in terms of size and turnover, with four state of the art manufacturing plants in Hosur, Mysore and Nalagarh in India and Karawang in Indonesia. TVS Motor is credited with many innovations in the Indian automobile industry, notable among them being the introduction of India's first two-seater moped, the TVS 50cc. The company became the leader in its category of sub 100 cc mopeds.

52

Three Month Moving Average and Return of the Stock. (Table No.3) Month Return(%) 3Month Moving Average(%) Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 16.5558 7.5773 13.619 16.5546 0.8516 -50.5517 0.1369 6.4935 -14.9819 -25.5129 -8.1447 17.647 12.584 12.5836 10.3417 -11.0485 -16.521 -14.6404 -2.7838 -11.3337 -16.2131 -16.0106 0.8809 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 -6.8595 -5.826 -2.206 -10.2727 9.2885 7.9646 12.7868 -14.2547 -17.619 -0.1904 -9.9236 -9.1858 Month Return (%) 3 Month Moving Average(%) 1.6538 -4.9638 -6.1015 -1.0634 6.9804 10.0133 6.4967 -6.3623 -10.688 -9.2443 -6.4332

53

Graph No .02

3month moving average

15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 3month moving average

Technical Analysis: The Stock Has Taken Bearish Trend from May 10 to Oct 10 and also fell the share price frequently Two Months Once it effects the share price movement for the longer period. The stock is currently trading below all the important trading moving averages.

54

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Month Price Gain Loss Month

( Table No .4)( Amount In Rs) Price Gain Loss

Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11

96.45 104.35 119.3 138.7 142.1 71.7 73.1 82 70.65 54.45 50.75 60 9.25 1.4 8.9 11.35 16.2 3.7 7.9 14.95 19.4 3.4 70.4

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

56.35 54.15 53.65 49.35 55.3 61 68.8 59.25 51.9 52.4 47.2 43.5 85.15/23 =3.7021 0.5 5.95 5.7 7.8

3.65 2.2 2.5 4.3

9.55 7.35

5.2 3.7 140.1/23 =6.0869

Average Total Of Gain or Loss

RS = 85.15/140.1= 0.6082 RSI =100-(100/1+RS) =100-(100/1+0.6082) =100-62.1813 RSI =37.818% The Observe the TVS Motor Company RSI Table for April 10 to Mar 12 Price Shown above. The RSI of TVS company shows that price movement is more stringent in the 37 levels with this the investor has to sell the shares in order to minimize the risk and profit.

55

\ Mahindra and Mahindra

Mahindra & Mahindra was set up as a steel trading company in 1945. It soon expanded into manufacturing general-purpose utility vehicles, starting with assembly under license of the iconic Willys Jeep in India. Soon established as the Jeep manufacturers of India, M&M later branched out into the manufacture of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and agricultural tractors. Today, M&M is the leader in the utility vehicle segment in India with its flagship UV Scorpio and enjoys a growing global market presence in both the automotive and tractor businesses. Over the past few years, M&M has expanded into new industries and geographies. They entered into the two-wheeler segment by taking over Kinetic Motors in India. M&M also has controlling stake in REVA Electric Car Company and acquired South Korea's SsangYong Motor Company in 2011. The US based Reputation Institute recently ranked Mahindra among the top 10 Indian companies in its 'Global 200: The World's Best Corporate Reputations' list. Mahindra & Mahindra is a major automobile manufacturer of utility vehicles, passenger cars, pickups, commercial vehicles, and two wheelers. Its tractors are sold on six continents. It has acquired plants in China and the United Kingdom, and has three assembly plants in the USA. M&M has partnerships with international companies like Renault SA, France and International Truck and Engine Corporation, USA. M&M has a global presence and its products are exported to several countries. Its global subsidiaries include Mahindra Europe Srl. based in Italy, Mahindra USA Inc., Mahindra South Africa and Mahindra (China) Tractor Co. Ltd.
56

Three Month Moving Average and Return of the Stock Month Return(%) 3Month Moving Average(%) Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 -4.4149 9.2461 9.0235 5.84 -5.6626 9.8732 4.55 4.0885 0.3549 -10.0946 -14.7083 12.1528 4.6182 8.0365 3.0669 3.3502 2.9202 6.1705 2.9978 -1.8837 -8.1493 4.2167 1.6588 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Month Return(%)

( Table No.5) 3Month Moving Average(%) 7.532 -11.6754 3.7426 2.3148 1.9842 8.4527 7.9 -15.3391 -8.081 -2.6266 5.2737 -7.1559 2.6698 -0.1236 -1.8726 2.6805 4.2505 6.1123 0.3378 -5.173 -8.6822 -5.3267 -5.0187

57

Graph No. 03

3month moving average

10 8 6 4 2 0 Dec-10 Aug-10 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 3month moving average

Jun-10

Oct-10

Feb-11

Oct-11

Jun-11

-2 -4 -6 -8 -10

Technical Analysis: The Trend in the graph shows that Mahindra and Mahindra company shares are NOT in tremendous demand where investor are ready to sell the share. The company shares are in Bullish from April-10 to Nov -10, feb-11 to April -11,july -11 to sept-11, it indicates to sell the stocks . From Dec-11 to Mar-11 ,Oct-11 to Feb 12 the company shares are in Bearish , it indicates to buy the stocks in order to get long term return.

Feb-12

58

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Month Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Price 526.1 572.45 625.25 661.5 626.4 693.3 731.85 766.3 777.55 712.05 614.1 698.6 84.5 66.9 37.95 34.45 11.25 65.5 97.95 46.35 52.8 36.25 35.1 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Average Total of Gain or Loss Gain Loss Month

(Table No.6) (Amount in Rs) Price Gain Loss

753.8 672.15 701.3 718.25 737.55 802.55 863.2 723.85 683.05 672.85 707.65 659.1

55.2 81.65 29.15 16.95 19.3 65 60.95 139.35 40.8 10.2 34.79 48.55 651.79/23 =28.33 519.1/23 =22.57

RS = 28.33/22.57=1.2252 RSI =100-(100/1+RS) =100-(100/1+1.2252) =100-44.9397 RSI =55.0603. The Observe the Mahindra and Mahindra RSI Table for April 10 to Mar 12 Price Shown above. The Companys share are falling and big disappointment to shareholders.

59

Mahindra and Mahindra shares shows negative trends . The investors are advised to short the shares at Rs670.

Bajaj Auto Ltd

The Bajaj Group is amongst the top 10 business houses in India. Its footprint stretches over a wide range of industries, spanning automobiles (two-wheelers and three-wheelers), home appliances, lighting, iron and steel, insurance, travel and finance. The group's flagship company, Bajaj Auto, is ranked as the world's fourth largest two- and threewheeler manufacturer and the Bajaj brand is well-known across several countries in Latin America, Africa, Middle East, South and South East Asia. Founded in 1926, at the height of India's movement for independence from the British, the group has an illustrious history. The integrity, dedication, resourcefulness and determination to succeed which are characteristic of the group today, are often traced back to its birth during those days of relentless devotion to a common cause. Jamnalal Bajaj, founder of the group, was a close confidant and disciple of Mahatma Gandhi. In fact, Gandhiji had adopted him as his son. This close relationship and his deep involvement in the independence movement did not leave Jamnalal Bajaj with much time to spend on his newly launched business venture.

His son, Kamalnayan Bajaj, then 27, took over the reins of business in 1942. He too was close to Gandhiji and it was only after Independence in 1947, that he was able to give his full attention to the business. Kamalnayan Bajaj not only consolidated the group, but also diversified into various manufacturing activities.

60

The present Chairman of the group, Rahul Bajaj, took charge of the business in 1965. Under his leadership, the turnover of the Bajaj Auto the flagship company has gone up from INR.72 million to INR. 120 billion, its product portfolio has expanded and the brand has found a global market. He is one of Indias most distinguished business leaders and internationally respected for his business acumen and entrepreneurial spirit.

Three Month Moving Average and Return of the Stock . Month Return(%) 3Month Moving Average(%) Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 4.1422 4.9595 15.4486 8.608 0.5081 -47.8736 1.6041 2.964 -3.0503 -19.9557 -0.1338 14.4941 8.1834 9.3387 8.1882 -12.9191 -15.2538 -14.4351 0.5059 -6.6806 -7.7132 -1.8651 4.6053 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Month

(Table No.7) Return(%) 3 Month Moving Average(%) -0.5442 -9.3187 4.5784 3.1584 7.0068 -3.4392 13.1298 -3.1186 -6.0849 0.373 11.0462 -4.5549 1.5437 -1.7615 -0.5273 4.9145 2.242 5.5658 2.1906 1.3087 -2.9435 1.7781 2.2881

61

Graph No .04

3 Month Moving Average

15 10 5 0 3 Month Moving Average -5 -10 -15 -20

Technical Analysis: The trend in the above moving average graph Bajaj shows in Aug 2010 and Feb -11 reduced negative level after that trend shows price fluctuates positive and negative , May 2010 & Mar 2011 shows the selling point , now trend going positive was so investor can invest money for long time investment.

62

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Month Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Price 2094.3 2214.7 2483.3 2688.05 2729.4 1471.6 1513.8 1575.35 1541.5 1248.65 1268.3 1459.8 19.65 191.5 42.2 61.55 33.85 292.35 120.4 268.6 204.75 41.35 1257.8 Gain Loss Month

( Table No 8) (Amount in Rs) Price 1462.8 1344.35 1405.9 1464.85 1573 1534.35 1733.15 1672.85 1592.8 1600.95 1798.95 1737.1 8.15 198 61.85 1586.6/2 1943.3/84 =68.98 RS = 68.98/84.49=0.8164 RSI =100-(100/1+RS) =100-(100/1+0.8164) =100-55.0539 RSI =44.9461 =84.49 198.8 60.3 80.05 61.55 58.95 108.15 38.65 Gain 3 118.45 Loss

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

Average Total of Gain or Loss

The observe the Bajaj stock from april-2010 to May -2012 shown above RIS table. The RSI indicator has a constant range between 0 to 100.And the overbought and oversold lines are traditionally drawn at the 30 &70 levels. The crossover of 30% is oversold and 70% is overbought. All together for Bajaj from 2010 to 2012 RSI have generated 44.9641 % It indicates that Investor can Hold the stock for long period to get more return .
63

Hero Motocorp

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. (Formerly Hero Honda Motors Ltd.) is the world's largest manufacturer of two - wheelers, based in India. In 2001, the company achieved the coveted position of being the largest two-wheeler manufacturing company in India and also, the 'World No.1' two-wheeler company in terms of unit volume sales in a calendar year. Hero MotoCorp Ltd. continues to maintain this position till date. Hero MotoCorp two wheelers are manufactured across three globally benchmarked

manufacturing facilities. Two of these are based at Gurgaon and Dharuhera which are located in the state of Haryana in northern India. The third and the latest manufacturing plant is based at Haridwar, in the hill state of Uttrakhand. In the 1980's the Company pioneered the introduction of fuel-efficient, environment friendly four-stroke motorcycles in the country. It became the first company to launch the Fuel Injection (FI) technology in Indian motorcycles, with the launch of the Glamour FI in June 2006. Its plants use world class equipment and processes and have become a benchmark in leanness and productivity. Hero MotoCorp, in its endeavor to remain a pioneer in technology, will continue to innovate and develop cutting edge products and processes. Hero MotoCorp offers wide range of two wheeler products that include motorcycles and scooters, and has set the industry standards across all the market segments. The new Hero is rising and is poised to shine on the global arena. Company's new identity "Hero MotoCorp Ltd." is truly reflective of its vision to strengthen focus on mobility and technology and creating global footprint.
64

Three Month Moving Average and Return Month Return(%) 3 Month Moving Average(%) Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 -3.0559 1.9894 5.1849 -11.4006 -1.9803 2.4394 0.204 6.6702 0.8172 -18.5564 -11.5368 7.1993 1.3728 -1.4087 -2.732 -3.6471 0.221 3.1045 2.5638 -3.6896 -9.7586 -7.6313 0.8385 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Month

(Table No 9) Return(%) 3 Month Moving Average(%) 6.8531 8.0553 1.0086 -4.9361 14.3575 -6.6418 12.4392 -7.4283 -7.0609 -2.4136 4.8629 -0.8447 7.3692 5.241 0.0426 3.4766 0.9265 6.7183 -0.5436 -0.6833 -5.6342 -1.5372 0.5348

65

Graph No .05

3 Month Moving Average

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12

Apr-10

Dec-10

Apr-11

Aug-10

Aug-11

Dec-11

Jun-10

Oct-10

Jun-11

Feb-11

Oct-11

Technical Analysis: The moving average chart of Hero Motor Corp fluctuates from June2010 to Mar 2011 , for rest of the period the chart shows positively increased trend so investors a can Hold the shares for long time .

Feb-12

3 Month Moving Average

66

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Month Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Price 1904.95 1937.8 2046.9 1815.4 1791.8 1851.9 1865.8 1973.4 1986.1 1630.5 1464.95 1586.55 121.6 60.1 13.9 107.6 12.7 355.6 165.55 Gain 32.85 109.1 231.5 23.6 Loss Month Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

( Table No 10)(Amount in Rs) Price 1709.65 1853.15 1877.75 1787.2 2047.85 1941.85 2175.7 2003.25 1905.25 1863.9 1950.45 1960.3 86.55 9.85 1339.95/23 1284.6/23 =55.85 233.85 172.45 98 41.35 260.65 106 Gain 123.1 143.5 24.6 90.55 Loss

Average Total of Gain or Loss

=58.25

RS = 58.25/55.85=1.0429 RSI =100-(100/1+RS)

67

=100-(100/1+1.0429) =100-48.9500 RSI =51.05 The observe the Hero Motor Corp stock from april-2010 to May -2012 shown above RIS table. The RSI indicator has a constant range between 0 to 100.And the overbought and oversold lines are traditionally drawn at the 30 &70 levels. The crossover of 30% is oversold and 70% is overbought. All together for Britannia Industries Limited from 2010 to 2012 RSI have generated 51.05%, It is in between 0 -100 so it indicates that Investor can hold shares.

68

FINDINGS TATA MOTORS LTD With reference to graph no 1, Technical analysis of the script shows that Tata company shares are oversold . The investor has to buy the shares of the company because the company

performance is brought the shares to up . It is better to invest more in this company shares. It means that script is strong and investor should remain in stock for long period. Returns are very good. The target price is Rs270.so there is an upside there, the structure is positive but one needs to put a stop at around Rs 265. Particular stock has some news eg;-result, entering into new business, merger with other company, & on basis of that news the price goes up or down.

TVS Motor Company With the reference to Graph no 2, Technical analysis of script interprets that SELL the shares because script forms has always downward pattern over period. The company is not performing well at the market it effect its shares of the company , with lack of products TVS is losing its Market share in Two Wheeler market . Investor can sell the shares in order to minimize risk in future.

MAHINDRA AND MAHINDRA With the reference to Graph no 3, Technical analysis of script interprets that wait for some time Because script forms Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) is a very big disappointment. First it fell 100 points from Rs 750-740 to Rs 660. That is surprising. It far underperformed the Nifty. Then at Rs 650 it's on the verge of a breakdown. Significant support levels will be broken. It may or
69

may not do that, but it's a stock you want to go short in and certainly want to avoid completely for buying.

BAJAJ AUTO: With the reference to Graph no 4, The technical analysis of the script interprets that The Trend refers to the monthly trend of the stock and not intraday but one may trade intraday based on it. If you are a slightly longer term investor, you may go on holding the stock in long if trend is up or you may go on holding the stock in short position if trend is down. If you are a short term trader you may use the above given information and play for small moves.

HERO MOTOCORP: With the reference to Graph no 5, Technical analysis of script interprets that, rising pattern over period wait &watch because script forms interprets that after correction comes in stock it gets well supported level. Auto sector is seeing some weakness and profit booking and short positions build up. We can go hold on Hero Motocorp where we are seeing some short build up happening and still some space left for downside further.

70

Recommendations:

The study comes up with the following recommendations based on the positive indications shown through data analysis and findings, MA and RSI:

Tata Motors : Investor can hold shares for more period for better returns.

TVS Motor : Investor can sell the Money to minimize the loss

Mahindra and Mahindra: short the shares which leads to less risk and minimize the loss

Bajaj Auto: Investor can hold the shares for long-term returns .

Hero Motocorp: shares performing in slow movement investor can hold the shares for next period.

71

Suggestions
If people invest money on Research reports or broker advice then chances of risk is low and chances of return will be high.

It is always better to invest money on long term basis than intra day because intraday is nothing but a speculation.

Share market is growing sectors if people invest money in stocks the returns will be good than Bank F.D & Real Estate. People also should invest money Mutual Funds as per return concerns.

72

Conclusion:

The stock market has shown tremendous growth in volume of trade and complexity during the last 2 years. In spite of significant developments in stock analysis, the investors do not base their investments on research but rely on gut feeling and emotions.

Technical analysis is one of the important tools to time the investment at the right time. A fundamental analyst may make in-depth study about the stock and may give calls on those stocks based on the investment needs of the investor, but he will not be able to tell when to make a fresh position in the stock. It is at this point, the technical analysis comes to the rescue of the investor. In this project, an effort has been made to analyze a sample of 5 stocks from Sensitive Index for a period of 2 years. The significant price patterns are observed and explained through charts and diagrams. These chart patterns are historical in nature, but they are important to prove the relevance of technical analysis.

The study has given me experience and confidence to use the tools like RSI, and Moving average. It has helped me to understand the technical analysis and apply them to predict the prices in the short run.

Technical analysis is very useful to time the entry of investment in the market and also to make an exit and book profits. Fundamental analysis may predict the intrinsic value of a stock but technical analysis is required to time the entry of investment. To taste success in technical analysis analyst should refine the study and use limited number of tools in which analyst is comfortable.

73

BIBLIOGRAPHY: A to Z Analysis

Dalal Streets

www.bseindia.com

www.nseindia.com

www.reliancemoney.com

www.moneycontrol.com

74