Geopolitiki poloaj i bezbednosne perspektive Republike Srbije

Prof. dr Dragan R. Simi Univerzitet u Beogradu Fakultet politikih nauka

I Geopolitiki poloaj Republike Srbije

1. SRBIJA U JUGOISTONOJ EVROPI

Geografska dualnost:
1. Na Balkanskom poluostrvu 75,6% 2. U Panonskoj niziji 24,4%

Balkansko- ApeninskoPirinejsko poluostrvo! Balkan:

1. evroazijski most 2. Jadransko- crnomorski intermarium

2. Fiziko- geografske predispozicije Srbije

-Dodir Panonskog basena, Dinarskih, Karpatskobalkanskih, arsko-pindskih i Rodopskih planina -Moravsko vardarska udolina -Prohodnost pravca SZ JI- i I-Z -Teritorijalni skelet Srbije Podunavlje- Posavina Tromoravlje

-Nemaritimnost = hendikep Srbije

-Osobine spajanja i proimanja i izolovanja i odvajanja (Cviji)

GEOGRAFSKE PRETPOSTAVKE TRASIRANJA

TRANSEVROPSKIH KORIDORA KROZ SRBIJU

Doline i trase Koridori 7 i 10 Konkurenstki koridori Konkurentski vorovi Vankoridorski pravci -Beograd . dran
-Zagreb- Split - Dubrovnik -Trst- Dra Igumenica -Igumenica Solun Aleksandropulos

3. PROSTRANOST I GRANICE SRBIJE

Povrina Srbije 88.361 km2
-Slina veliini Portugalije, Austrije, Azerbejdana i Jordana -Manja od Rusije 193 puta, SAD 108 puta -Vea od Albanije 3 puta, a od BIH 1,7 puta, Hrvatske 1,6 puta

Granice
-Duina granice Srbije 2.358,3 km -suvozemne 1.609,4 km (68,2%) -rene 705,6 km (29,9%) -jezerske 43,3 km (1,9%) -Maarska 174,4 km (suv.156,4km; re. 18,0km) -Rumunija 546,5 km (suv. 328,5km; re. 218,0km) -Bugarska 367,1 km (suv. 340,1 km; re. 27,0 km) -BJR Mak. 273,0 km (suv. 237,5km; re. 35,5km) -Albanija 111,1 km (suv. 108,1km; re. 3,0km) -Crna Gora 244,1 km (suv. 234,1km; re. 10,0km) -BiH (RS) 382,8 km (suv. 154,3 km; re. i jez. 228,5km) -Hrvatska 259,3 km (suv. 121,7km; re. 137,6km)

4. DRUTVENO- GEOGRAFSKA SVOJSTVA

Srbija na dodiru svetskih kulturnocivilizacijskih areala: POSLEDICE

OSNOVNE OSOBINE STANOVNITVA SRBIJE

Broj stanovnika 2002:
Procene: 9,2 10 miliona??? Popisano: 7.498.001 (bez KiM) Dva pola koncentracije:

-Beogradski (1,6-2 miliona) -Kosovsko-metohijski (1,7-2,3 mil.) Imigracija izbegla i prognana l. Emigracija u EU, SAD, Kanadu,... Migracije selo-grad Pranjenje pograninih, planinskih, centralnih, seoskih krajeva

DEMOGRAFSKA POLARIZACIJA I PERSPEKTIVE SRBIJE

ETNIKA STRUKTURA STANOVNITVA SRBIJE (2002.)

Manjine na severu i jugu
PO POPISU

Srbi 6.212.838 Albanci 1,2-2 .? Maari 293.299 Bonjaci 136.087 (Muslimani 19.503) Romi 108.193 Hrvati 70.602 Crnogorci 69.049 Albanci 61.647 ! Slovaci 59.021 Vlasi 40.054 Rumuni 34.576 Ostali i nepoznato 201.751

Albanci: , opt. Preevo, delovi optina Bujanovac i Medvea Maari: sever Bake i Banata Bonj./musl.: JI deo rako-polimske oblasti: optina Tutin, delovi opt. Novi Pazar, Sjenica, Prijepolje Bugari: Bosilegrad, Dimitrovgrad

5. GEOGRAFSKE I ISTORIJSKE PRETPOSTAVKE GEOPOLITIKOG POLOAJA SRBIJE

Kontinuitet ukrtenih interesa Snopovi geopolitikih i geostrategijskih pravaca

Stari i novi akteri Balkanski geopolitiki vor

POZICIJA SRBIJE U (SFRJ) KONTEKSTU GLOBALNOG HLADNORATOVSKOG SUELJAVANJA

Teorijski geopolitiki predloak

(Mehen, Mekinder, Spajkman, Mehen...)

Srbija u kontaktnoj zoni Rimland-a i Heartland-a Sa istone strane na zapadnu stranu Gvozdene zavese

SRBIJA U BALKANSKOJ GEOPOLITIKOJ TRANZICIJI

Geopolitinost u odabiru
lokalnih saveznika: *Srbi *Hrvati *Bonjaci *Albanci *ostali -jugoslovenski prostor kopa NATO prekida -evroregionalizam

GEOPOLITIKE I GEOSTRATEKE OSNOVE POSTBIPOLARNOG POLOAJA SRBIJE

6. SRBIJA U POLITIKO-TERITORIJALNOJ STVARNOSTI NA BALKANU



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18 49' 13''- 23 00' 43'' ...

41 51' 05''- 46 11' 25'' ... 28 - 2.656 ...

VII X

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II BEZBEDNOSNE PERSPEKTIVE REPUBLIKE SRBIJE

Some theoretical introduction

Since decolonization, the regional level of
security has become both more autonomous and more prominent in international politics, and that the end of the Cold War accelerated this process. (Barry Buzan, Ole Waever, Regions and Powers- The Structure of International Security)

 This idea follows naturally from the ending of

bipolarity. Without superpower rivalry intruding obsessively into all regions, local powers have more room for manoeuvre. The relative autonomy of regional security constitutes a pattern of international security relations radically different from the rigid structure of superpower bipolarity that defined the Cold war

 The argument of this book is that regional

security complex theory (RSCT) enables one to understand this new structure and to evaluate the relative balance of power of, and mutual relationship within it between regionalizing and globalizing trends.

 RSCT distinguishes between the system level

interplay of the global powers, whose capabilities enable them to transcend distance, and the subsystem level interplay of lesser powers whose main security environment is their local region. The central idea in RSCT is that, since most threats travel more easily over short distances than over long ones, security interdependence is normally patterned regionally based clusters: security complexes.

 Security complexes may well be extensively penetrated by

global powers, but their regional dynamics nonetheless have a substantial degree of autonomy from the patterns set by the global powers. To paint a proper portrait of global security, one needs to understand both of these levels independently, as well as interactions between them. RCST uses a blend of materialist and constructivist approaches. On the materialist side it uses ideas of bounded territoriality and distribution of power that are close to those in neorealism.

 On the constructivist side, RSCT builds on the

securitization theory which focus on the political processes by which security issues get constituted. It thus breaks from neorealism by treating the distribution of power and the patterns of amity and enmity as essentially independent variables. Polarity may affect, but it does not determine the character of security relations. The processes of securitization are essentially open and subject to influence by a host of factors.

 Security complexes are regions as seen

through the lens of security. Regional security complex is a set of units whose major processes of securitization, desecuritization, or both are so interlinked that their security problems cannot reasonably be analysed or resolved apart from one another.

The essential structure of an RCS embodied four variables

Boundary, which differentiates the RSC from its
neighbors Anarchic structure, which means that the RSC must be composed of two more autonomous units Polarity, which covers the distribution of power among the units, and Social construction, which covers the patterns of amity and enmity among the units.

From its configuration at any given snapshot in time there are thus three possible evolutions open to an RSC

1. maintenance of the status quo, which means

that there are no significant changes open to an RSC Internal transformation, which means that changes in essential structure occur within the context of its existing outer boundary. External transformation, which means that the outer boundary expand or contracts, changing the membership of the RSC, and most probably transforming its essential structure in other ways.

 Balkan as a subcomplex inside the European RSC The definition of an RSC is that security
interdependence is relatively more intense inside it than across its boundaries. A subcomplex also has this feature of a relatively clear boundary, inside which most security interaction is inward-oriented, but in contrast to a real RSC, it forms part of larger complex outside which it cannot be understood.

II Security institutions in SouthEast Europe

 The Regional Cooperation Council The South East European Cooperation

Process (SEECP) The Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe Southeast European Co-operative Initiative SECI The Central European Initiative (CEI)

 South East Europe Initiative, SEEI South Eastern and Eastern Europe
Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons, SEESAC Southeastern Europe Defense Ministerial, SEDM Stabilization and Association Process, SAP

 Adriatic Ionian Initiative, AII Black Sea Economic Cooperation, BSEC USA-Adriatic Charter, AC

Strategija nacionalne bezbednosti Republike Srbije 2009. - nacrt

 Izrazita sloenost i nepredvidivost

meunarodnih odnosa na poetku 21. veka Svetska ekonomska kriza,Power shift,, klimatske promene, terorizam... Pored toga, Republika Srbija je suoena sa problemom ouvanja teritorijalne celovitosti.

 Polazite Strategije nacionalne bezbednosti

ine suverenitet i teritorijalni integritet Republike Srbije, ekonomski prosperitet, socijalna stabilnost, razvoj demokratije i ljudskih prava, potovanje ljudskih prava, evropska spoljnopolitika orijentacija i unapreenje saradnje sa najuticajnijim subjektima meunarodne zajednice i dravama u regionu.

 Opredeljenja iskazana u Strategiji

nacionalne bezbednosti izraavaju spremnost Republike Srbije da u okviru Organizacije Ujedinjenih nacija, evropskuh kao i drugih meunarodnih i regionalnih struktura doprionosi izgradnji i unapreenju regionalne i globalne bezbednosti.

 Zalaganje za jaanje integracije nacionalnih

sistema bezbednosti, multilaterlanih foruma bezbednosti i kolektivnog sistema meunarodne bezbednosti, kao kljunih inilaca u obezbeenju mira, stabilnosti i demokratskog razvoja drava savremenog sveta. U takvim okolnostima jaa potreba za kooperativnim pristupom u ouvanju i unapreenju bezbednosti zasnovanim na saradnji i udruivanju bezbednosnih kapaciteta nacionalnih drava.

 Zbog sloenog kakaktera bezbednosti u regionu

drave Jugoistone Evrope sve vie su upuene na to da zajednikim naporima suzbijaju negativne procese koji ugroavaju njihovu bezbednost. Izgradnjom zajednikih mehanizama za prevenciju ritika i pretnji i za upravljanje kriznim situacijama ostvaruju se pretpostavke bru demokratsku tranziciju drava regiona, ime se stvaraju uslovi za pribliavanje i prikljuenje svih drava regiona Evropskoj uniji.

Zakljuci:

 Potreba da region Jugoistone Evrope od potroaa

bezbednosti postane njen proizvoa. Za tako neto od velikog je znaaja podrka velikih sila, EU ali i spremnost samih drava regiona. Potrebno je nastaviti dalju saradnju zemalja regiona u svim dimenzijama bezbednosti. (The central idea in RSCT is that, since most threats travel more easily over short distances than over long ones, security interdependence is normally patterned regionally based clusters: security complexes.- Barry Buzan)

 Upuenost drava regiona jednih na druge. Potreba da se uvae interesi svih drava u

regionu, a takoe i da se potuju i vrednosti za koje se zalau kao i one na kojima poivaju. Nema stabilne Evrope bez stabilnosti u ovom regionu, nema stabilnosti u regionu bez stabilne Srbije.

 Stanje geopolitikog oka zbog gubitka

izlaza na more ta su alternative Uloga Dunava

HVALA NA PANJI!