Market Sentiment Reports For The NCM in Q1 2012 - Proshare

ISSN 1597 - 8842 Vol. 1 No.
93
Market Sentiment Analysis Reports
Q1 2012
March 2012 to April 05, 2012
Sentiment Analysis Reports Q1-2012
CONTENTS
1.0
Sentiment Analysis Report W/E 090312
03
2.0
Sentiment Analysis Report W/E March 16, 2012
11
3.0
19
4.0
Sentiment Analysis Report - W/E March 30, 2012
27
5.0
Sentiment Analysis Report - W/E April 5, 2012
35
All documents obtained by the team were with, and through the consent of the authors mentioned therein and other parties mentioned in the report. No document is referenced in this report which has been obtained through any other means other than that stated here or/and could not be verified. 2012, Proshare Nigeria Limited, All Rights
Reserved. ISSN 1597 - 8842 Vol. 1 No. 93
For enquiries on this report, kindly contact us at info@proshareng.com
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Sentiment Analysis Report W/E 090312

March 12, 2012/ Proshare Analyst Unit Manage your risks or they will destroy you - W. B. Busin Sentiments in the capital market are a powerful determinant of stock prices. And price is technically regarded as the summation of sentiments of all market participants. This report is being introduced basically to serve as a guide by revealing market sentiments as regards to trend and direction of individual stock, so you wont be treading against market sentiments. In delivering this service, we have employed technical analysis indicators which are strictly mathematical equations without human influence to analyse stock trends. The objective is not to (de)market any stock/company but to technically show you, our esteemed subscribers, the direction which markets are trending and the sectors/stocks that are (un)favored by current market sentiments. In the subsequent paragraphs, we shall be relating to you how market fared in the previous week .i.e. the technical review and interpretation of general market sentiment. In the same breadth, market movers i.e. volume drivers and gainers for the week will be technically reviewed to reveal most possible emerging trend/direction. For further emphasis, we included a due diligence table which contains basic financial ratios to help justify/validate your thought process. Please note that the analysis is based on volume and price reaction during sessions and it does not suggest any recommendation to buy or sell as Proshare would not be responsible for any investment decision taken without consultations with your authorised fund managers.
Diagnosis
Analysis of the market activity in the week ended March 9th 2012 technically revealed an improved optimism in the investors trading pattern as against moderate optimism observed in the previous weekly performances. The bulls appeared to be dominating market as reflected in the positive breadth, pessimism level appears low.
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Market sentiments during the week favoured blue chips in the Consumer Goods, Construction/Real Estate, Industrial Goods, Agriculture, ICT, Oil & Gas and Services sectors in that order which further revealed cautious trading pattern in the week. On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against the following sectors - Financial Services, Conglomerates and Healthcare in that order as bearish sentiments remains strong in the sectors.
Stock Trend & Direction Here, we review stocks that have sharpened market direction and performance in the week, using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, and CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION to reveal investors sentiments towards the market movers. THE BIG VOLUME Transcorp Plc recorded significant volume in the week ended March 9th 2012. The recent huge bearish volume moved money out of the stock significantly. The stock experienced an uptrend in the week but ended with negative sentiments as huge sell came on board on last trading session- this indicates emerging downtrend, a kind of correction sets in significantly. The moving average closed neutral in short term and bearish in long term. This suggests the correction might be extended beyond short term period. The last candlestick pattern was bearish engulfing which means the emerging sell tendency is significant. Meanwhile, the price had broken the upper Bollinger band which could be taken as overbought signal, buttressed by RSI returning from overbought region. Also, the bearish engulfing pattern was buttressed with a significant bearish volume, indicating huge sell off as volume closed above 15days moving average by 718%. Also, to buttress this further, the money flow index nosedived considerable far below 30% region. This confirms the huge sell tendency towards the stock while most of the transactions in the week were distribution.
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Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiments towards the stock appeared bearish as the stock is likely to experience a significant trend reversal in the coming periods. The price position above upper Bollinger band signalled overbought outlook which was confirmed by RSI that is already retracing, showing the sell has begun while the candlestick pattern revealed a strong bearish signal. Meanwhile, significant distribution was observed in the week while money appeared moving out of the stock considerably. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
ETIPlc recorded significant volume in the week ended March 9th 2012. There was a strong buying tendency towards the stock. The stock experienced a positive sentiment during the last session, trying to break 4months resistance of N11:00. There is strong tendency to break the resistance as the buying tendency closed stronger as revealed by the psychology behind the candlestick pattern. Meanwhile, the stock appeared bullish in short term and remained neutral in long term as suggested by moving averages and buttressed by MACD. Also, the last trading was accumulation buttressed by bullish volume, though closed below 15days moving average and RSI is closed to overbought region. Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiment is positive and there is strong tendency that the stock will break 4months resistance. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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THE GAINERS CADBURY Plc topped gainers chart for the week ended March 9th 2012 with 16.68%. The stock experienced a bullish week with very strong positive sentiments and uptrend movement. BUT the trend likely to reverse in the coming period, the huge profit taking and sell tendency was observed during last trading session. The volume closed bearish with significant surge above its 15days moving average while significant distribution was observed during the last session. The stock is very close to overbought region. The moving average closed indecisive in short term and bearish in long term, though, money inflow index maintained northward trend. Also, the candlestick pattern reveals an emerging bearish sentiment with growing sell pressure. This is likely to continue in the coming period. Technical conclusion on sentiment: There is high tendency of emerging bearish sentiments towards the stock. The last sell tendency was significant as profit taking commenced while the downtrend is very possible anytime soon. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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JBERGER Plc closed second on gainers chart for the week ended March 9th 2012 with 15.68%. The stock experienced a strong uptrend movement, after three flat positions in the early week. The contracted Bollinger band revealed low volatility in the week. The uptrend momentum was strong as the price closed above the upper Bollinger band, with up-gap price opening- indicating strong positive sentiments. The uptrend may continue buttressed by upper Bollinger band moving upward after contraction while MACD also is above signal line, suggesting a bullish posture. However, the volume trend showed that there was more of distribution than accumulation in the week. Though, money flow index maintains uptrend, showing money still moving into the stock. The last traded volume closed above 15days moving average despite low activity. In addition, the moving average is neutral in short term and bearish in long term as price closed above short term but below mid and long term moving averages. Technical conclusion on sentiment: There was positive sentiments toward the stock, the money flow index buttressed this as money is flowing into the stock. Also, the position of price above upper Bollinger band indicates high momentum. The uptrend might continue for few sessions. However, the incoming outlook appeared mixed considering price moving average and growing distribution pattern. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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THE LOSERS UBA Plc topped the losers chart for the week ended March 9th 2012. The stock experienced a correction during the week, losing -15.38% after 73% gain recorded as at last week. However, the correction appeared to be in short term as the selling (Profit taking) momentum appeared waned while the bulls are already stepping in as the last volume traded closed bullish above its 15days moving average. The last two trading was accumulation not distribution. This shows a trend reversal is about to emerge and the renewed bargain tendency is high while the stock remained bullish in short term as revealed by short term moving average, trading above its mid-long term but below long term. This was also buttressed by MACD still trading above signal line while the RSI shows the stock is not depressed i.e. not in oversold or overbought region. Also, the candlestick pattern is a white inverted hammer which signifies reversal anytime soon, though a next bullish opening will be required to confirm this as money inflow index still maintains southward trend. Technical conclusion on sentiment: The stock remained bullish in short term while there is high tendency for the stock to trend upward anytime soon as the stock is trying to establish new support level at N2.56 (former resistance). The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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ACCESS Bank Plc closed Second on losers chart for the week ended March 9th 2012. The stock experienced a correction during the week, losing -10.26% after 51.69% gain recorded as at last week. The correction has tendency to continue, though the bulls were trying to find support around N6.96. However, the last candlestick pattern was black inverted hammer, which is a weak reversal signal, revealing buying pressure in the downtrend but the strong sell tendency overwhelmed the bargain drive. Meanwhile, the volume also closed bearish above its 15days moving averageindicating dominance of the bears as money inflow index maintained southward trend. An upper opening in the next session is required to confirm the reversal. More so, the money index inflow still maintains southward trend while last three trading was distribution buttressed by MACD as the stock is trading below signal line. Also, the moving average further reveals the stock to be bullish in long term and it closed indecisive in short term as price closed below its short term but above its mid-long and long term moving averages. Though RSI shows the stock is not depressed .i.e. not in oversold or overbought region. Technical conclusion on sentiment: The sentiment towards the stock is still bearish as the reversal signal appeared weak while the bargain pressure in downtrend was overwhelmed, indicating the stock is still within the ambit of bears. Also, the short term moving average closed indecisive, MACD closed below signal while the distribution is still very alive with money inflow index trending southward. Though, the reversal signal suggests possible turnaround while a higher opening in next session is required to confirm this. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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March 18, 2012 Diagnosis (for the week ended 16th March 2012) Analysis of the market activity in the week ended March 16th 2012 technically revealed low optimism and high speculative propensity in the investors trading pattern as against growing optimism and steady bargain trend observed in the previous weekly performances. In the week, bargain momentum declined significantly while market sentiment appeared mixed, though the bears dominated the terrain as reflected in the negative breadth while pessimism level gained more points. Also, the indecisive posture of the market remained too high. This further shows that large numbers of market participants are on sideline and appeared wary which could not be isolated from the unstable trend in the market. Nevertheless, the waning of profit taking tendency and speculative buying witnessed at the close of the week suggests better prospect in the new week.
Also, it was revealed that market sentiments during the week moved againt the large CAP and blue chips in the Consumer Goods, Services, Industrial Goods,
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Conglomerates, Financial Serives, Agriculture, Oil & Gas and Healthcare sectors in that order which further revealed the sectors which investors were patronising in the week. On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments favoured the following sectors Construction/Real Estate and ICT in that order as bargain sentiments was strong in the sectors.
Stock Trend & Direction Here, we shall review stocks that have shapened market direction and performance in the week, using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTIONto reveal investors sentiments towards the market movers. THE BIG VOLUME UBA closed positive for the week by +1.5% gain- a better performance to 11.4% loss recorded in the previous week. Though, still struggling to establish a support level at N2.56 but the bearish pressure witnessed in the midweek weakened the support level as stock experienced low of N2.47 in the week. Subsequently, the stock maintained the support level as the stock closed higher at N2.68- this indicates emerging positive sentiments towards the stock after mid-week sell pressure witnessed in the market generally as suggested by candlestick pattern The Moving Averages closed neutral and bearish in short and long term respectively while MACD closed bearish below signal line. The volume movement at the close of the week revealed that more of accumulation was done in the week while the volatility appeared waned. Technical Conclusion on sentiments: There is tendency for sustainable positive trend as the stock maintained support levels at N2.56 while the sentiments likely to remain positive, considering accumulation posture.
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Though, the moving averages and MACD suggest mixed outlook in short term while the slight reduction of Bollinger band reveals waning of volatility in the near term. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
STERLING BANK closed with 13.8% gain in the week as against 9.0% gain recorded last week- a better and improved bargain sentiment as the stock experienced a bullish trading pattern in the week. This candlestick pattern reveals a strong buying drive and positive sentiments towards the stock. The moving averages revealed bullish trend in short term but stayed neutral in long term. Also MACD closed bullish. However, the continuity of the bullish trend is in question, as the stock is currently at overbought region; the price hits the upper Bollinger band. This means the stock is technically at its top as buttressed by RSI which further means the trend can reverse any moment for now, though the bargain drive likely to defy this, looking at the candlestick pattern and volume trend. Also, the money flow index closed northward and similar trend observed in volume trend as most transactions were accumulation while this also confirms the strong positive sentiments. Technical conclusion on the sentiments: The sentiment towards the stock is positive and bullish in short term. The candlestick pattern revealed strong buying sentiments in the week. On the other hand, the stock is at its top as revealed by momentum indicator (RSI) and its price position at the tip of upper Bollinger band confirms the overbought region. But the stock likely to maintain uptrend in next few sessions as buying momentum closed stronger and firmed. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume. Copyright@ 2012 www.proshareng.com All Rights Reserved.
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THE GAINERS JBERGER experienced a bullish week to close with 27.3% gain against 15.7% gain recorded last trading week. The bargain drive remained strong as stock maintained maximum opening position and closed with same position throughout the week- This indicates strong positive sentiments and strong bullish run. This buttressed by MACD. However, the RSI revealed the stock to be in overbought region buttressed by price above the upper Bollinger band. Meanwhile, the moving averages closed bearish in both short and long term as the price closed below its short and long term moving averages- this means price movement momentum is technically weak. The volume trend revealed that more of accumulation was done in the week, though the volume trade was significantly low- this shows that majority of investors maintained hold position. Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is strong positive sentiment towards the stock and this is likely to be sustained as most investors maintained hold positions on the stock. The uptrend is not in doubt. Though, the stock appeared due for correction and it might retrace anytime soon, considering the overbought region as revealed by RSI and Bollinger band while the uptrend movement appeared technically weak as suggested by moving averages which closed bearish in short and long term. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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DANGFLOUR experienced positive sentiments and impressive rally in the week to close with 11.4% against 6.0% gain recorded in the previous week. However, the stock retraced as the stock failed to break its 6weeks resistance at N4.90. Though, the MACD still closed bullish buttressed by volume movement trend which closed positive and above its 15days moving average as more of accumulation was done in the week. However, the sentiments appeared mixed as the stock hit the upper Bollinger band while the moving average revealed a bearish trend in long term. Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiments appeared bearish as the stock failed to break its 6weeks resistance at N4.90 and retraced accordingly after hitting above upper Bollinger band. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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THE LOSERS UBN experienced continued bearish sentiment to close with -22.2% loss as against -9.6% loss recorded in the previous week. The stock records new lows throughout the week. The RSI revealed that the stock is depressed buttressed by continued distribution witnessed in the week while money continued to flow out of the stock. The technical conclusion on sentiments: there is a strong bearish sentiment towards the stock while majority of sentiments indicators revealed a depressed posture of the stock. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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MAYBAKER appeared depressed as revealed by RSI while MACD and the moving averages suggest bearish trend in both short and long term. Also, the stock records new lows throughout the week, recording maximum loss for each session to close the week with -16.8% loss as against -9.1% loss recorded in the previous week. The stock experienced consistent distribution and continued cash outflow through the week. The trend likely to continue for a while - all things being equal. Technical conclusion on sentiments: The sentiment towards the stock is bearish and likely to continue. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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Sentiment Analysis Report W/E March 23, 2012 March 25, 2012 Diagnosis (for the week ended 23rd March 2012) Analysis of the market activity in the week ended March 23rd 2012 technically revealed improved optimism and high speculative propensity in the investors trading pattern as against very low optimism and profit booking trend observed in the previous week performance. In the week, renewed and fresh bargain in some sectors observed while market sentiment turned bullish, though speculative tendency dominated atmosphere as market swings in and out of green zone while optimism level gained more points. Also, the indecisive posture of the market remained too high. This further shows that large numbers of market participants are on sideline and appeared wary which could not be isolated from the unstable trend in the market. However, a significant decline was witnessed in their activities. Nevertheless, the improved optimism and speculative buying witnessed during the week suggests better prospect with likely volatility in the new week.
Also, it was revealed that market sentiments during the week favoured the large CAP and blue chips in the Agriculture, Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Oil & Gas and ICT sectors in that order which further revealed the sectors which investors were patronising in the week. On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against the following sectors - Construction/Real Estate, Services and Financial Services in that order as sell sentiments was strong in the sectors.
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Stock Trend & Direction Here, we shall review stocks that have shapened market direction and performance in the week, using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTIONto reveal investors sentiments towards the market movers. THE BIG VOLUME Zenith Bank experienced positive sentiments in the week to record a better performance of 5.3% gain against -4.1% loss recorded in the previous week. The emerging sentiments appeared bullish while the moving averages closed bullish in short and mid-long term. The MACD is about to cross above signal line. Also, the candlestick pattern is bullish engulfing pattern. However, the bargain momentum appeared weak as suggested by volume movement trend to close below 15days moving average significantly. Nevertheless, this could suggest, hold position of investors. The money flow index moved northward, suggesting money is flowing into the stock while accumulation trend was observed during the week. Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appeared positive and bullish buttressed by bullish engulfing pattern from candlestick. Though, the bargain drive appeared weak, considering the low volume. Nevertheless, the price movement is gaining uptrend momentum gradually to close bullish in both short and long term as revealed by moving averages. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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UBA experienced mixed sentiments in the week to record 0.7% gain - a weak performance to 1.75% recorded in the previous week. The emerging sentiments appeared bearish buttressed by MACD while moving averages closed neutral in both short and long term period. Meanwhile, the stock is likely to experience low volatility as Bollinger band is getting narrower while the stock maintained its support level N2.56 by recording low of N2.58 in the week. The RSI and moving averages revealed weak momentum in price movement while is likely to form a resistance at N2.87. The volume trend buttressed the weak momentum as the volume traded closed below 15days moving averages significantly by 70%. Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appeared bearish, buttressed by MACD. Though, strong accumulation was observed in the last session. Volatility is waning so as price movement momentum while the stock has formed a resistance at N2.87. The stock lacks strength to break the resistance.
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THE GAINERS FCMB had a strong bullish week to record 21.9% gain against -13.0% loss recorded in the previous week. The emerging sentiment is positive and bullish. MACD closed bullish but the moving averages closed neutral in both short and long term period. The candlestick pattern revealed strong buying and bullish tendency as the stock opened maximum and closed maximum. More so, we observed accumulation in the week while money flow index closed northward. Also, majority of investors maintained hold position, considering the very low traded volume in the last session of the week. However, the RSI showed the stock is nearing overbought region but the bullish trend likely to sustain as the upper Bollinger band is opening northwards. Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiment is positive and appeared bullish. The northward opening of the upper Bollinger band suggests strong buying force while the bullish trend is likely to continue. The candlestick pattern revealed very strong buying tendency while low volume traded suggests hold position of most investors. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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PAINTCOM experienced a very strong bullish week and the stock has been in a consistent bullish trend for the past 11days. The emerging sentiments appeared positive and bullish while buying force remained very strong, as suggested by candlestick pattern, considering the maximum gap-up opening and closing posture of the stock. MACD closed bullish, moving averages appeared bullish in short term but closed neutral in long term. However, the money flow index remained flat throughout the week while RSI suggests the stock is due for serious correction anytime soon as the stock is far above overbought region. Meanwhile, the volume trend appeared too low and closed bearish most of the time in the week. Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appeared bullish. Though, the stock is due for correction anytime soon, trading far above overbought region as suggested by RSI. But the strong bargain force is likely to defy this. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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THE LOSERS INTBREW experienced bearish sentiments in the week to record -9.8% loss as against a no price movement experienced in the previous month. The emerging sentiments towards the stock appeared bearish buttressed by MACD while the moving average closed neutral for both short and long term period. However, the trend has slight possibility to reverse in short term as the price closed below lower Bollinger band, moving closer to oversold region as revealed by RSI. The volume trend is bearish and closed below 15days moving average significantly while money flow index closed southward suggesting outflow of funds from the stock. Technical conclusion on sentiments: The sentiment towards the stock is bearish and likely to continue for few sessions. However, there is slight possibility of reversal as the stock is very close to oversold region. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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UBN experienced continued bearish sentiment to close with -22.3% loss as against -22.2% loss recorded in the previous week. The stock experienced huge sell off, recording new lows throughout the week. The RSI revealed that the stock is depressed, trading far below oversold region, buttressed by continued distribution as witnessed in the week while money continued to flow out of the stock Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is a strong bearish sentiment towards the stock while majority of sentiment indicators revealed a depressed posture and strong bearish trend. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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Sentiment Analysis Report - W/E March 30, 2012 April 02, 2012 Diagnosis (for the week ended 30th March 2012) Analysis of the market activity in the week ended March 30th 2012 technically revealed bearish sentiments and high pessimism in the investors trading pattern as against improved optimism and high speculative propensity observed in the previous week performance. In the week, continued selling and weak bargain was observed across the sectors while market sentiment turned bearish. The sell pressure towards blue chips dominated market atmosphere as investors remained pessimistic. Also, the indecisive posture of the market remained too high. This further shows that large numbers of market participants are on sideline and appeared wary which could not be isolated from the unstable trend in the market. However, a significant increase was witnessed in their activities. Nevertheless, the depressed postures of equities observed across the sectors might incite speculative trading- a pointer to likely volatility in the new week.
Also, it was revealed that market sentiments during the week favoured the medium and small CAPs and blue chips in the Agriculture, Industrial Goods, ICT, Services and Healthcare sectors in that order which further revealed the sectors which investors were patronising in the week. On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against the following sectors - Consumer Goods, Financial Services Construction/Real Estate, conglomerates and Oil & Gas sector in that order as sell sentiments was strong in the sectors. Copyright@ 2012 www.proshareng.com All Rights Reserved.
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Stock Trend & Direction Here, we shall review stocks that have shapened market direction and performance in the week, using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTIONto reveal investors sentiments towards the market movers. THE BIG VOLUME DIAMOND BANK experienced mild and low bearish sentiments in the week to record -4.0% loss against -2.4% loss recorded in the previous week. The trend is on the slide but there was consistent accumulation throughout the week. This shows there was fresh/new interest towards the stock as some investors were exiting their positions. However, the money flow index actually showed that money is flowing out but some investors are taking advantage of low price considerably as buttressed by volume movement which stayed positive and closed significantly above 15days volume moving average by 558%. Furthermore, the price moving average revealed weak bargain momentum as the trend appeared bearish in both short and long term period. Also, the stock recorded new low of N2.28 during the session after 30 trading sessions. Though, the stock still closed at N2.38, above its 30days support of N2.40. Nevertheless, The RSI also revealed that the stock is moving into oversold region buttressed by Bollinger bands as the stock traded below but later closed above bottom Bollinger bands. Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appeared mixed but it was established that there is strong accumulation tendency towards the stock. Also, there is strong indication that the stock might maintain its support level at N2.40 while its depressed posture could trigger uptrend. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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ZENITH BANK experienced bearish sentiments in the week to record -9.5% loss against +5.3% gain recorded in the previous week. Analysis of the outlook revealed a downtrend after recording high of N14.15 on 5th March 2012 and still sliding towards its support level at N12.01. In addition, the stock is in bearish mode as suggested by MACD but appeared bullish in long term as revealed by moving averages. The candlestick pattern (Dragonfly Doji) is a reversal signal, this shows the downtrend has tendency to reverse anytime soon as bargain hunters appeared taking positions. Also, the price position at the bottom Bollinger band suggests possible reversal as well while the depressed posture of the price at the downtrend as revealed by RSI could incite the renewed bargain interest. Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiments appeared positive as trend reversal has high possibility while the candlestick pattern (Dragonfly Doji) revealed the weak postures of the bears during last session. For cautious purpose, a higher opening in the next session would be required as a confirmation. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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THE GAINERS BAGCO experienced a bullish week to gain 25.9% gain in the week against 4.7% loss recorded in the previous week. The bargain trend revealed strong and new interest towards the stock, considering the candlestick pattern (white Marubuzo), the price momentum and the large volume traded. More so, the positive sentiment is likely to continue as MACD confirms the strong bullish mode while the money flow index maintained strong northward trend. In addition, the price moving average also confirms price momentum to be bullish in short term while the stock maintains neutral position in long term. However, the RSI reveals the stock to be in overbought region, which means the stock is due for short term correction anytime soon, buttressed by price position above upper Bollinger band. Though, the strong buying tendency observed might postpone the short term correction beyond near term. Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is strong buying tendency towards the stock which is likely to continue after the likely short term correction. The RSI revealed overbought position of the stock. This suggests the stock is due for short term correction anytime soon. Though, the continuation of the bullish trend is not in doubt as money continued to flow into the stock while bulls are fully in control of sentiments.The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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CAP experienced a bullish week to record 15.8% gain in the week against 0.8% gain recorded in the previous week. The stock experienced a strong buying tendency as the stock opened with maximum points throughout the week. Also, MACD revealed the stock to be in bullish mode while the price moving averages also revealed a bullish trend in short term period. However, the RSI showed that the stock has been overbought significantly buttressed by price position above upper Bollinger band. To this regard, the emerging sentiments appeared mixed while the sustainability of the bullish trend is low as volume movement revealed a bearish pattern and consistent distribution in the week. Technical conclusion on sentiments: the persistent distribution witnessed in the week revealed low sustainability of the bullish trend while the bargain momentum closed weak buttressed by the flat price position recorded in last trading session. Price correction may begin anytime soon. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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THE LOSERS UBN experienced continued bearish sentiment to close with -22.1% loss as against -22.3% loss recorded in the previous week. The stock experienced huge sell off, recording new lows throughout the week. The RSI revealed that the stock is depressed, trading far below oversold region, buttressed by continued distribution observed in the week while money continued to flow out of the stock Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is a strong bearish sentiment towards the stock while majority of sentiment indicators revealed a depressed posture and strong bearish trend.The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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TOTAL experienced bearish sentiments in the week to record -14.3% loss against flat position recorded in the previous month. There is a strong bearish sentiment towards the stock as the stock records new low throughout the week. The price is trading below a bottom Bollinger band- this shows the stock is depressed confirming the strong bearish sentiments while MACD and RSI confirmed the bearish mode and depressed posture. The money flow index revealed outflow of funds from the stock while distribution dominated trading pattern during the week. Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is a weak bargain tendency and strong bearish sentiment towards the stock which might continue in the coming sessions. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume.
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Sentiment Analysis Report - W/E April 5, 2012 April 09, 2012 Diagnosis (for the week ended 5th April 2012) Analysis of the market activity in the week ended April 5th 2012 technically revealed positive sentiments laced with speculative tendency and low optimisms in the investors trading pattern as against bearish and high pessimism observed in the previous week performance. a better performance as more of accumulation was done in the week. In the week, more of fresh moderate bargain sentiments was observed across the board as market sentiment turned positive, though towards blue chips and value stocks. However, continued mild sell tendency was experienced in few major sectors as speculators seem to be in charge of market direction. Also, there was a significant increase in optimistic activity of the market against significant decline recorded last week. This buttressed the fresh moderate bargain sentiments observed in some sectors as noted above. However, the indecisive posture of the market is still high, but reduced activity was observed as sideline attendants appeared taking positions subtly. Notwithstanding, the low risk appetite and the current unstable trend remained a pressing factor as sideline attendant is significant. Nevertheless, the depressed postures of equity prices observed across the board might incite active speculative trading- a pointer to likely volatility in the new week.
Also, it was technically revealed that market sentiments during the week favoured blue chips of Medium and Large CAP categories in the Conglomerates, Financial Services Construction/Real Estate and Agriculture sectors in that Copyright@ 2012 www.proshareng.com All Rights Reserved.
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order which further revealed the sectors which investors were patronising in the week. On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved against the following sectors Healthcare, Oil & Gas, Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods and Services sectors in that order as sell sentiment was strong in the sectors.
Stock Trend & Direction

Here, we shall review stocks that have sharpened market direction and performance in the week, using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION to reveal investors sentiments towards the market movers.
THE BIG VOLUME

DIAMOND BANK experienced moderate bargain sentiments in the week to record 6.7% gain against the -4.0% loss recorded in the previous week. More so, the stock recorded positive sentiments in the recent time. Though, on a weak bargain drive- The weak bargain trend suggests a cautious trading pattern. This was revealed in the volume trend, trading above its moving average considerably on a positive and consistent growing momentum, indicating continued accumulation throughout the week. However, the candlestick pattern suggests possible reversal signal, though the reliability is low and this requires next lower opening position to be confirmed as the price closed flat in the last session. Meanwhile, MACD revealed bullish mode in the last session as the price closed above signal line. Technically, a cautious approach is advised as the moving average revealed a weak price moving momentum while the price closed neutral in short but stayed bearish in long term. The RSI buttressed the weak momentum as the trend maintained horizontal trend.
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Technical conclusion on the sentiments: there was a continued positive sentiment towards the stock buttressed by bullish mode revealed by MACD while the 214% volume surge above volume moving average in the last session showed increased interest towards the stock. However, a cautious trading is advised as a weak reversal signal is formed according to the candlestick pattern. If the stock opens southward in the next session, the reversal is certain. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume
GUARANTY experienced a moderate bargain in the week to record 7.5% gain against -5.7% loss recorded in the previous week. The stock enjoyed a moderate bargain sentiment in the week and ended the week with speculative trading pattern. More so, the trend remains bullish as suggested by MACD while the stock is trading above signal line. Similarly, the price moving average revealed a bullish trend in short and long term period. However, the emerging sentiments appeared bearish, considering the candlestick pattern which suggests a trend reversal-(short term reversal), buttressed by the bearish day experienced in the last session. Also, the money flow index closed southward in the last trading session as distribution sets in buttressed by a bearish volume while the RSI showed a weak strength. Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appeared bearish. We advised a cautious bargain as short term price reversal is possible. The last trading session was dominated by the bears according to the candlestick pattern while we observed distribution on the last trading day with corresponding bearish volume.
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THE GAINERS
AGLEVENT experienced a strong bullish week to record 19.8% gain against 4.5% loss recorded in the previous week. We observed a very strong uptrend momentum as the stock is trading outside upper Bollinger bands. Though, the stock recorded more of bearish volume. Also, we observed a fresh bullish interest towards the stock in the last trading session with a corresponding bullish volume buttressed by bullish mode revealed by MACD with sharp northward movement in money flow index Notwithstanding, the stock is trading at overbought region as revealed by RSI, buttressed by the price position above upper Bollinger bands while the price closed neutral and bearish in short and long term respectively as revealed by price moving averages. Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock is due for correction, considering the overbought position of the stock as revealed by RSI. However, the stock may sustain the uptrend, considering the strong bullish sentiments witnessed in the week buttressed by huge bullish volume recorded in the last trading session. We advise a cautious trading while a lower opening in the next session could incite the price correction as noted above. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume
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OKOMUOIL experienced a strong bullish week to record 19.6% gain against 15.7% gain recorded in the previous week- an improved performance and sustained uptrend was observed. A very strong bargain tendency was observed towards the stock in the week with maximum opening and maximum close. Also, the stock is in a strong bullish mode as revealed by MACD while the moving averages revealed a bullish trend in both short and mid-long term period. Though, there was a very low volume- this suggests hold position of investors throughout the session while there was strong money inflow towards the stock. However, the emerging sentiments appeared bearish as the stock is overdue for correction, considering its overbought posture as revealed by RSI buttressed by the price position above upper Bollinger bands. More so, the last candlestick pattern was a reversal signal which suggests the bears are taking hold of the stock, buttressed with corresponding bearish volume which closed above volume moving average. A short term profit taking season is looming. Technical conclusion on sentiments: The emerging sentiments appeared bearish, considering the overbought position of the stock while the profit taking tendency already started subtly in the last session as suggested by the candlestick pattern buttressed by bearish volume which closed above moving average. A short term price correction may commence anytime soon. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume
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THE LOSERS JAPAULOIL experienced a continued strong bearish week to record -16.4% loss against 10.7% loss recorded in the previous week- a sustained downtrend was observed. There is a strong bearish sentiment towards the stock as the price is losing maximally at the moment while the stock broke its all time support of N0.61 to record new low of N0.56. The MACD revealed a strong bearish mode while the price moving average revealed a bearish trend in both short and mid-long term. More so, the stock is in a depressed state, trading within oversold region buttressed by price position below bottom Bollinger bands. The money flow index closed far south while investors continued to sell out their positions as observed in the volume trend which remained bearish throughout the week. Technical conclusion on sentiments: The sentiment towards the stock is bearish and likely to sustain the bearish status for awhile, considering money flow index level at negative side. Nevertheless, the depressed posture of the stock, trading at all time low could incite trend reversal as the stock appeared bottomed out. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume
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CADBURY experienced a bearish week with a loss of -14.2% against 14.9% gain recorded in the previous week- a price correction in form of profit booking was observed. A short term price correction was observed in the week, but the emerging sentiments appeared positive as moderate buying was recorded in the last trading session. Though, MACD still revealed a bearish mode with a similar outlook in volume trend while the stock closed neutral in both short and mid-long term period as revealed by moving averages. Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiments appeared positive, though with low reliability as the volume traded closed bearish which means sell tendency is still in control. However, the candlestick revealed weak incoming bargain sentiment as the stock is likely to establish support base around N10.85 while the money flow index closed positive. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Olufemi Awoyemi, FCA Founder/CEO Proshare Reshu Bagga, Technical Director/COO, Proshare Mr. Taiwo Ologbon-Ori, Research & Analyst Unit, Proshare Saheed Kiaribe, Research Other contributors acknowledged in the materials referenced.
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Proshare does not guarantee any results or investment returns based on the information you receive. Although we have used our best efforts to provide the most accurate trading and investment strategies, we cannot promise your future profitability and do not promise verbally or in writing that you will earn a profit when or if you purchase/sell stocks; or take the actions that might have been prescribed here by the author, our analysts or available on www.proshareng.com. Ultimately all decisions are made by you. There is risk of loss in all trading and investing. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and all investment can go down as well as up. WHAT YOU CAN DO: You are given the unlimited right to print this commentary and to distribute it electronically (via email, your website, or any other means). You can print out pages and use them in your private discussion groups as long as you acknowledge PROSHARE and you do not alter the material in any way. Most importantly, you should not charge for it. We encourage professionals and investors alike to send in completed research materials on topics relevant to building a virile intelligent investment culture to us at info@proshareng.com. If approved for publishing, we will subject it to the same terms and conditions applicable to information developed by Proshare. We retain the rights however to edit the submission as applicable to conform to practice ethics and market decorum/regulations. COPYRIGHT: The copyright in this work belongs to the authors who are solely responsible for the content. Please direct permission requests to the Chief Operating Officer (COO), Proshare Nigeria Limited, via analyst@proshareng.com. This work is licensed under the Proshare trademark and is registered accordingly at relevant agencies. Proshare Reports, a critical part of Proshares public investor education and support service is designed to make it easy for insight into market developments, knowledge, tips and strategies to be made publicly available for people to make their own decisions. While the co-author we work with is responsible for his own work, the report issued is designed to document facts and nothing more. CREATION DATE: This document was created on 08 April, 2012 and is based on the best information available at that time. To check for updates, kindly send us an e-mail at info@proshareng.com . Thank you.
ISSN 1597 - 8842 Vol. 1 No. 93
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Market Sentiment Reports For The NCM in Q1 2012 - Proshare

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ISSN 1597 - 8842 Vol. 1 No.

Market Sentiment Analysis Reports

Sentiment Analysis Reports Q1-2012

Sentiment Analysis Report W/E March 16, 2012

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