EDU 5170 Educational Technology I Statistics & Probabilities: Percolating Clusters Eric Bran 2012 ISTE/ NETS STANDARDS

Creativity and Innovation: Students demonstrate creative thinking, construct knowledge, and develop innovative products and processes using technology. 1C. Use models and simulations to explore complex systems and issues. Research and Information Fluency: Students apply digital tools to gather, evaluate, and use information. 3D. Process data and report results. COMMON CORE MATHEMATICS STANDARDS Understand and evaluate random processes underlying statistical experiments S-IC.1. Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population S-IC.2. Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating process, e.g., using simulation. For example, a model says a spinning coin falls heads up with probability 0.5. Would a result of 5 tails in a row cause you to question the model? S-IC.3. Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. S-IC.4. Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling. S-IC.5. Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments; use simulations to decide if differences between parameters are significant. S-IC.6. Evaluate reports based on data. LESSON OBJECTIVES April 8,

1. 2. 3. 4.

The student will be able to construct a model based on probability. The student will compile and analyze data from their experiment The student will be able to articulate data in terms of percentages. The student will be able to predict the result of an experiment using their model and some intuition. INTRODUCTION

We will start class by first talking about forests and how they are created. Imagine you have a bunch of seeds and you spread them around in an empty field. The seeds will be scattered randomly all over the ground. Some trees will stand alone and others will stand in clusters. We will then define the term percolating clusters by asking the class if anyone knows the definition of the term. Motivator Students will get to work on the computer, print out their forest. They will be able to work with probability and statistics while creating something they can display in the classroom or keep. This is a hands-on activity that gives the students the feeling that they are interacting and creating data as oppose to just solving problems. This gets the students engaged in the topic and the activity. PROVIDE INFORMATION Percolating Theory In mathematics, percolation theory describes the behavior of connected clusters in a random graph. This idea can be explained by a simple drawing on the board, where there is a cluster that unites on side of an object to another due to random set of events. The teacher will ask the class for a volunteer to explain what the term means in their own words after the explanation to check for understanding. We will then look at different examples of percolating clusters. Finding Percentages We will discuss as a class how to find percentages using the ratios and cross multiplication. We will use a sample displayed on the SmartBoard and use the data in the sample to find the percentages. Probability Partners Since well be talking about probabilities and will be working with partners we will use some math to partner up. The teacher will ask the class that on the count of 3 they are to raise either their left hand or their right hand and keep them up. They will then be asked to find a partner who is raising the same hand as them. So those who raise their right hand will find someone with their right hand up. These will be groups of two. Quickly the teacher will make some notes of the

observation and ask the class what the probability that someone would raise their right hand? Is it reflected on the experiment? Probability of a coin toss Students will be given a coin which will be used to create a model of the forest. Before starting with the activity we will talk briefly about probabilities as a refresher. What is the probability that the coin will land in heads? Tails? (Answer: ) Probability of a dice roll After the group work we will talk about what the probability of rolling a dice and getting a certain number would be. This will be done and left so it can be left as a homework assignment for individual work. (Answer: 1/6) PROVIDE PRACTICE The students will be able to construct a model based on probability. After the students have found their partners, the students will be instructed to the teachers website to download an excel file which is the file containing the my forest activity. Once they have the file the instructions will be given as follow. You will be creating your own forest based on the probability of a coin toss. You will start creating your forest from the top left corner. Flipping the coin will determine whether a seed grows into a tree or not. If the coin lands tails you will write the word tree on the cell, if it lands heads you are to leave the cell alone and more to the next one. Do this, until you have gotten to the bottom right corner of your forest. After they have finished their grid, the students will be instructed to print their forest out. Each group will receive a red marker which will symbolize a forest fire. Starting with the first tree in the top left corner, the students will draw a circle around the tree. If there is a tree to the immediate sides up, down, left, and right, the circle will be transmitted to this tree. This will symbolize the fire spreading through clusters. The student will compile and analyze data. In a group the students will then collect the data from their experiment. They will be asked to answer the following questions. How many trees did you generate? Is this an accurate picture of the probability of a coin toss? Why or why not?

Did you generate a percolating cluster? The student will be able to articulate data in terms of percentages. After they have compiled and analyzed some of the data the students will be asked to answer the following questions. What percentage of the field is covered by trees? What percentage of the forest was destroyed by the fire? The student will be able to predict the result of an experiment using their model and some intuition. As a class we will have a discussion on how a higher or lower probability of tree growth can affect the percentages. Is it more likely to create a percolating cluster with a higher probability or lower? Why or why not? The students will be asked to make a prediction if the fire would reach the other side of the field with a higher percentage. The teacher will test it out different probabilities using the java applet on the computer for students to see the results. **Given that this is a 20 minute lesson, the following adjustments would be provided in a regular 50 minute lesson. *** Individual work Individually they would work on creating their own forest using a coin toss and answering the questions and solving the problems given by the teacher. Group work After they have completed the first forest students would then pair up using the raise your hand technique. In groups of 2 they would create a forest using different probability tools such as a dice or random number generator from the web. PROVIDE KNOWLEDGE OF RESULTS A member of each group will be selected to come up to the board and show how they found the percentages of the forest. By doing this, students will be able to review each others work. They will also describe if they created a percolating cluster. This will be the verbal feedback. As for written feedback they teacher will check the individual group work and provide written feedback on it.

REVIEW THE ACTIVITY On a separate piece of paper, students will answer the following questions: 1. One thing you learned today 2. One thing youre still confused about 3. One thing you learned today that you may be able to use in the future METHOD OF ASSESSMENT At the end of the unit students will be quizzed on finding percentages and express models.

QUIZ NAME: ______________________________________________ ______________ DATE:

Please answer the questions and show your work using the given model of a forest. 1. What percentage of this field are trees? (2 pts) 2. If a forest fire was to start in the top left corner what percentage of the forest would be destroyed? (3 pts.)

TREE

TREE

TREE

TREE

TREE

TREE

TREE

TREE

TREE