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Silverwood Partners - NAB 2012 - Strategic Industry Analysis
Silverwood Partners - NAB 2012 - Strategic Industry Analysis
Silverwood Partners - NAB 2012 - Strategic Industry Analysis
April
2012
Jonathan Hodson-Walker 508.651.2194 jhw@silverwoodpartners.com Joshua Stinehour 508.651.8134 jstinehour@silverwoodpartners.com
Page 1
Firm is highly active in media technology transaction flow Firm has worked with many leading media technology companies advising or
selling companies to some of the premier companies in the industry
Page 2
The strategic transacon process, which is underway at the direcon of the board's Special Transacon Commiee, is at a pace that requires my [Chairman, Kaleil Tuzman] dedicated focus - March 23, 2012 KIT Press Release - Mar. 15, 2012 - Feb. 17, 2012
Cloud
SaaS
Mul-Plaorm
MAM
SociallTV
Second
Screen
Channel-in-A-Box
Market
is
Hot,
Crowded
-
Oct
13,
2011
Acquires
IPO
we have implemented the Ongoing Corporate Turnarounds restructuring we announced in October and expect to This divesture [Broadcast business] is an see addional benet from these acons in 2012. We important part of our strategy to transform SeaChange into a pure play soware company, signicantly reduce connue to idenfy and implement our overall cost structure, and strengthen our ability to changes across the Company to help improve compete our operaonal performance - SeaChange CEO Raghu Rau Avid CEO Gary Greeneld
Page 3
Page 4
Industry
Index
5
0
9
0
31
14
6
34
0
Source: Thomson One, Company filings
3
2
21
3
64
59
2
(2H2011 vs. 2H2010)
69 9 4 47 30 24 51 102 27
41
16
12
19
Page 5
Industry
Index
18
20
26
25
8
22
14
13
4
31
21
5
8
8
32
30
24
84
9
45
5
9
0
14
6
34
0
69
9
4
3
12
24
120
1
16
8
0
13
15
40
33 14 110 9 9 13 7 23 15 28
30
24
102
27
21
3
2
19
12
(1)
Source: IEFE
Page 7
We are here
Signs of distress in
Well-before
compleon
of
technology
cycle
Disrupve technology
Page 8
2.7%
US
GDP
3.5%
1.9%
3.0%
0.3%
1.7%
Significantly increased confidence Downward pressure on prices Confidence high Better than expected order volumes
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source:
IABM
2010
2011
2012
Page 9
Confidence at an all-time high Excerpts from IABM Industry Survey Better than expected order volumes Confidence high globally Industry is bristling with activity Confidence continues to grow Increase in orders
Modest confidence level Order levels as expected and stable Selling prices remain resilient
XOR
Media
Mar
12
Broadcast
Dec 08
Mar 09
Mar 10
Sep 10
Feb 11
Jan 12
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Page 10
May 10
Over
the
immediate
years
[2009,
2010]
ahead
the
[broadcast
technology]
market
is
forecast
to
grow
at
11%
compound
per
annum.
-
IABM
Industry
Source
Book,
2008
Highlighted
Areas
Adjacent
Use
Cases
of
Technology
Future
Growth,
Events
in
Emerging
Countries
(Source: Silverwood)
?
M&A
Market
Indicators
Followed
by
Silverwood
Copyright Silverwood Partners 2012
Page 12
Consumpon
Tablets
Helping
Improve
News
Consumpon
NFL
accounts
for
9
of
TWC's
Stern:
TV
Will
Evolve
10
highest
rated
telecasts
in
2011
(US)
To
'Pandora-Like'
Mode
Source:
Nielsen
The New York Times Adopts Online Video, Changing from Within
Walmart to Bridge Online Gap With Disc- to-Digital ABC, Nielsen Team To Measure iPad Video Consumpon March Madness Digital Viewing Generates $60 Million in Ad Sales
New Nielsen Rangs to Measure TV and Online Ads Together Connected Devices Become Key to Content Consumpon NBA League Pass: The Future of Online Sports Video
Apple
TV
set
to
be
coming
in
2013
Intel
TV
Plan
Faces
Long
Odds
Against
Success
Highlights
fragmentaon:
19
million
watched
=>
380
million
didn't
watch
Source:
Nielsen
Superbowl Online A Proposal For Hollywood: Streaming Was To Survive TV Disrupon, it a Success? Go Completely Live
Page 13
Page 14
Growth at the expense of profitability can be tolerated if there is a reasonable expectation of profitability or potential for value enablement or maintenance Profitability and cash flow generation are the ultimate fundamental prerequisites for any enterprise losses can be financed with the expectation of profitability Growth + Profitability = Valuation Escalation: The sweet spot for value creation Profit can be internally generated through operational success; however, profitability has equivalent relationship with cost avoidance in M&A: n Buy vs. Build: Avoid costs of enterprise replication n Tactical Strike: Avoid fallout and loss of profit from commercial attrition Partially explains why high valuations can be achieved for businesses in M&A
Protability
Generated
or
Facilitated
Valuaon
Escalaon
Generated
or
Crystalized
Page 15
Business risk takes many forms; each risk has an impact on valuation in isolation and in an M&A transaction context Quantifying, projecting, shaping and controlling perceptions of risk avoidance or mitigation is an essential aspect of M&A preparation and execution
Representave
Risks
How
easy
is
it
to
execute
a
given
plan
of
acon?
Do
we
have
the
right
people
running
the
business;
are
they
performing
opmally
as
individuals
and
as
a
team?
As
sponsoring
execuve,
does
this
M&A
deal
help
or
hurt
my
career
within
[xyz]
large
company;
do
I
know
and
trust
the
target
and
people?
Are
we
making
products
that
our
current
customers
or
new
customers
want
to
buy?
Will
customers
buy
the
product
we
have
developed
for
them?
How
successful
will
the
enterprise
be
in
entering
new
vercals
(industries)
or
geographies?
Are
we
meeng
our
customers
needs
or
are
we
at
risk
of
losing
an
account
or
installaon?
Do
we
have
the
capital
resources
to
execute
on
our
plan
with
a
reasonable
likelihood
of
success?
Can
the
capital
we
raise
be
deployed
to
create
value
sucient
to
oset
the
diluon
associated
with
the
nancing?
Type
Execuon
Page 16
High Growth
NO
YES
YES
YES
Large
pool
of
potenal
investments
many
large
cap,
low-growth
stocks
Investors
focused
on
dividend
and
earnings
stream
Trade
in
ecient
range,
based
on
market-level
mulples
Depressed share price can be more reecve of structural stock market Low/No circumstances than intrinsic value of business Growth Interesng to agitators and in context of a transacon
Market
Capitalizaon
Copyright Silverwood Partners 2012
Page 17
Growth
7.2%
Sector
42%
Dec
2005
Dec
13,
2005
Mar
26,
2011
Dec.
13,
2011,
JEC
and
JMB
iniate
public
agitaon
for
sale
process
Mar.
21,
2012,
Miranda
announces
structured
sale
process
IPO
41%
Page 18
Investor
Presentaon
March
2012
Expansion by Service Providers HD Transions Channel Proliferaon Emerging Markets IPTV Digital Transion
Complexity at Service Providers HD Transion Channel Proliferaon Emerging Markets OTT / VOD
Page 19
Technology
Mature
or
Underappreciated
Uncertain
or
Evolving
Growth
Story
Mixed
Operang
Performance
Page 20
High Growth
Low/No Consider combinaon with other Growth business to benet from addional scale and resources
If stable, desirable lifestyle business Should growth escalate, addional capital required to fund operaons (VC)
Challenging to generate meaningful organic growth Consider divesng underperforming or non-core assets Purchase businesses to accelerate growth, improve posioning
Revenue
Level
Copyright Silverwood Partners 2012
Page 21
Growth
Leverage industry relaonships Sasfy unmet market need Provide a level of customer aenon uneconomical for larger vendors
Growth begins to slow as other vendors react, oering compeng soluons and discounts Challenge avoiding custom service oering for each client
All natural customers won Taking business from incumbent providers dicult to do on protable basis Increasingly dicult to innovate
Page 22
Key Takeaways n Average industry participant generates 50-70% gross margin n Majority of operating budget spent on S&M (75% of marketing spent on NAB/IBC) n R&D budget varies across business models; typically 10 20% of revenue n G&A smallest component of operating budget n Total OpEx range requires 50 70% gross margin to break even
Page 23
Despite positioning and growing market opportunity, substantial ongoing investments required in R&D, sales & marketing to generate growth
We have a history of losses, we expect to connue to incur losses and we may not achieve or sustain protability in the futureour operang losses will connue or even increase at least through 2012
$150+M
$63.6M
Op. Income
($17.4) ($16.1)
Page 24
Page 25
2012
2015
Expectaons
2015
Expectaons
Industry
growth
in-line
with
world
economic
growth
(Source:
IABM)
HD
and
le-based
workows
key
market
drivers
Ongoing
HD
Transion
sll
less
than
half
complete
IP
infrastructure
is
having
a
major
impact
Emerging
markets
will
connue
to
experience
double
digit
growth
Purchase
decisions
are
beginning
to
be
based
on
operaonal
funconality
rather
than
technology
Services
have
become
an
increasingly
important
poron
of
the
market
New
technology
purchasers
are
entering
the
market
from
other
industries
New
vendors
are
taking
advantage
of
IT
trends
and
the
movement
towards
cheaper
(and
oen
more
open)
soware
plaorms
2008
2009
2010
2011
Emerging markets connue to have strong economic growth addional acvity around Olympics, World Cup in Brazil IP transion accelerang as aging formats are replaced Services become even more signicant poron of total industry revenues
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
No
Growth
(~0%
Growth)
Modest Growth
18%
10%
9%
5%
18%
4%
32%
4%
VS
to extend our offerings into these new markets requires obviously a different marketing approach, different networks to sometimes different channel partners, different price points, different value propositions et cetera. So its a challenge for a small company - Michael Wellesley-Wesley, CEO Chyron, Q4 Earnings Call
Target Customer
Sales
Dynamic
Low-Touch
Vs.
High-Touch
Sales
Reach
Direct
vs.
Indirect
Number
of
Sales
Reps
Markeng
Budget
Training
Partner
Relaonships
Page 27
Page 28
Revenues from emerging mediums remain insignificant in context of traditional business models; however substantial attention from end-users of technology
Online video spend will be 3.6% of TV in 2011 Youtube may account for greater than 60% of market(1) Even with growth, marketers in 2015 will spend $100 on television ads for every $10 for online video
Page 29
Everyone at the negotiations table is more savvy, and there will be a big push to extract as much value as possible for content and content distribution. Ian Blaine, CEO and Co-Founder, thePlatform During 2012 most online distributors will have the same content available, so now the race can begin on who can present differentiated content first. Jan Steenkamp, VP, Business Development, Irdeto
Source: VideoNuze
Page 30
Content Produced
Content Distributed
Content Consumed
Technology Disrupon
New content produced at fracon of price 5 10 years earlier IP distribuon shiing billions of dollars of technology budgets
Page 31
Page 32
~95%
11/1/2001: Kodak share price at $21.40
Apr 2004: Despite ongoing restructuring efforts, Kodak is removed from DJIA after 74 years
2011: Kodak announces sale of image sensor business and 1,100 patents
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Additional Examples:
Page 33
Lost Revenue
$4B
Silverwood
Esmates
Revenue growth sll eludes you and it is going to be fairly modest next year and yet theres a lot of posive drivers for the media creaon industry. Can you help us understand why it is that top-line growth is sll proving so dicult to achieve? - Paul Koster, JP Morgan As we transion our model to focus more on the media enterprise to focus more on soware and to focus more on recurring revenue you are going to see a dampening eectI hear everyone on the need for growth. We are taking a focus on how we can improve our protability with no growth - Gary Greeneld, CEO Avid
Page 34
Today
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
60%
49%
47%
32%
4%
Engineering
Operaon,
Don't
Know
Finance,
IT,
Other
10% 0%
7%
Engineering
Operaon,
Finance,
IT,
Other
Don't
Know
Page 35
dollars from hardware sales to disappear unable to compete with large IT vendors n Transition to software model requires fundamental shift in business model: engineering, sales (direct vs. channel), marketing, G&A
Illustrave Example
Purpose-Built Soluon
Integrated
Soluon
Revenue
Loss
50%
Soware
Hardware
Eciency
Gain
Sales:
$40,000
Gross
Margin:
$39,000
Sales:
$10,000
Gross
Margin:
$2,000
Firmware Hardware
Page 36
Soware,
Support
Principal
focus
of
large
buyers
strong
margins,
intellectual
property,
recurring
revenue
2.0x
5.0x+
1.5x
2.0x+
0.2x 0.3x
0.5x 1.0x
Professional
Services
Installaon
Hardware
Resale
Integraon
Support
Recurring
Standard
Maintenance
Cost
and
commitment
to
provide
Does Professional Services, Hardware drive enough addional Soware, Support sales to jusfy its existence?
Page 37
business should be profitable for maximum effect in separation provides valuation floor for business n Moderate or no profitability has minimal impact on valuation of hardware component of business
Without
Separaon
of
Soware
Operaons
1.0x
1.5x
$125.0
$187.5
Illustrave
Example
$100
Soware
Revenue
Prot
Contribuon
Hardware
Revenue
10% $110
14% $125
$20 50%
$80
0% $80
0%
$80
1.0x
1.2x
$80.0
$96.0
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 1
Year 2
Page 38
Page 39
18% 4%
0%
Over 1,000+
101 - 1000
Page 40
Substantial volume of
Page 41
Page 42
"This
acquision
by
Grass
Valley
is
great
for
PubliTronic's
customers
as
the
enre
team
in
Apeldoorn
can
now
enjoy
the
resources
of
a
true
mul-naonal
company,
complete
with
deep
knowledge
in
video
and
server
technologiesNow,
together,
our
technologies
can
bring
real
cost
and
operaonal
benets
to
the
industry
on
a
large
scale.
-
Harold
Vermeulen,
Founder
and
Managing
Director
of
PubliTronic.
(Source:
Grass
Valley
Press
Release)
This
is
an
excing
milestone
for
our
companyWe
are
extremely
happy
to
be
part
of
the
Blackmagic
Design
team.
Blackmagic
Designs
global
reach,
leading
edge
technologies,
widely
recognized
brand
name,
strong
systems
and
networking
experse
and
worldwide
customer
relaonships
make
it
an
ideal
partner
for
Teranex.
-
Mike
Poirier,
General
Manager
of
Teranex
(Source:
Blackmagic
Design
Press
Release)
Its
a
terric
outcome
for
our
customers,
our
employees,
Cisco
and
our
investorsWe
built
a
great
company,
but
we
were
at
a
pping
point
where
our
customers
were
telling
us
it
was
me
to
scale.
-
Conrad
Clemson,
Co-Founder
and
CEO
BNI
Video
(Source:
CED
Magazine,
10/20/2011)
Page 43
21
20
25
25
21
Page 44
Deal Interests
Transacon Types
Perfect informaon: know who is selling and what valuaon expectaons are
Creave structures with a poron in cash, but majority of consideraon in form of equity and conngent future payments
Page 45
~$15 Billion
~$1 Billion
~$1.5 Billion
Representave Acquisions
Page 46
Jan. 2008
Jul. 2008
Oct. 2010
Mar. 2009
Mar. 2010
Feb. 2011
Apr. 2012
Page 47
Private Equity firms able to leverage current market dynamics to outbid strategic acquirers for businesses with strong profitability Able to move rapidly: substantial deal experience, existing equity funds, longstanding lender relationships
Transacon
Mulples
EBITDA
Revenue
11x
10x
9x
2x
8x
7x
6x
5x
4x
1x
3x
2x
1x
Amount Retained Equity Cash Equity 2.0x 3.0x 3.0x 4.0x 3.0x 4.0x
Debt
Page 48
Page 49
Business
Transformaons
Predominantly
Hardware
Why
Transform?
Valuaon
Increase
(ulmately)
Operaonal
Streamlining
Strategic
Clarity
Respond
to
customer
demand
immediacy
of
funconality
How
to
Transform?
Decisive
acon
required
Challenging
to
alter
instuonal
mindset
Oen
takes
signicant
investment
and
me
Many
mes
requires
divestures
and
acquisions
Predominantly Soware
Soware-as-a-Service
(SaaS)
Copyright Silverwood Partners 2012
Page 50
The market will nd you as long as you are either large, have demonstrable growth, or a story aligning with market interest
Jeremy Allaire: We often got asked, "Why are you going public now?" There are a whole bunch of reasons. One is, I've always said we're trying to build a global independent company and at some point that means becoming a public company. I think the other big thing is that a large amount of our business is with other public companies, and public companies doing business with other public companies matters, there's a credibility and a transparency that's there that is very real. I think having currency, both capital and equity currencies, is valuable for investments or acquisitions. So those are a bunch of reasons and I think they're all quite valid.
Opportunity for immediate value recognion Currency for growth investments and acquisions Provides customers greater comfort in nancial capacity Access to large instuonal investors dearth of available video-focused investments
Evertz hopes TSX gives it a profile for growth - June 29, 2006 (Source: globeandmail.com)
Evertz could afford to fund its growth plans with the cash it was generatingBut credibility had become a recurring issue for Evertz as it tried to win new clients, such as the major U.S. telecom companies that plan to load TV signals on their phone lines...
Page 51
Revenue
Page 52
Large
beer
align
with
market,
and
improve
posioning
for
greater
appeal
to
Vendors
large
instuonal
investors.
Smaller
Opportunity
to
posion
as
a
must-have
strategic
technology
Vendors
acquision
for
larger
vendors.
All
Vendors
Opportunity
to
take
advantage
of
ongoing
technology
disrupon
and
benet
from
changing
market
dynamics.
Page 53
References: IABM
Page 54
Provider of market research and strategic consulting services to a wide range of digital media clients. The company publishes a variety of syndicated market research reports and has been retained for numerous custom engagements by leading players in the broadcast, cable/satellite/IPTV, digital media, Pro-AV, private equity, and finance industries. Devoncroft was formed by Joe Zaller, a twenty year veteran of the digital media industry. Mr. Zaller is a frequent speaker at industry trade shows and events, and publishes a widely-read blog on the broadcast technology industry (http://blog.devoncroft.com/).
The BBS is an annual demand-side study of the global broadcast industry, which enables readers to improve strategic decision making, customer engagement, marketing strategy, and sales execution. More than 10,000 broadcast professionals in 100+ countries participated in the 2012 BBS, making it the largest ever and most comprehensive market study of the broadcast industry. For information on receiving a copy of the big broadcast survey, please contact Joe Zaller (jzaller@devoncroft.com)
Page 55
Important
Informaon
The analysis and views expressed herein have been developed by Silverwood Partners LLC (Silverwood) or obtained from various third-parties. The material contained herein, while not guaranteed, is based on information that is believed to be reliable and accurate. This strategic industry analysis (Strategic Analysis) is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It is not and is not intended to be a Research Report as defined by NASD Rule 2711 of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) effective as of the date hereof or as amended. Specifically, this Strategic Analysis does not provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base an investment decision as it does not have regard to the particular investment objectives, financial situation and the needs of any person or entity who may receive this document. Silverwood does not assess for any particular investor the suitability of any particular investment or the potential value of any particular investment. None of the information contained herein constitutes a recommendation or a solicitation by Silverwood or a recommendation or solicitation that any particular investor should purchase or sell any particular security in any amount, or at all. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in the securities of any company mentioned in this Strategic Analysis and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This Strategic Analysis is not intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities. Silverwood, its partners, members, officers, employees, contractors, referral sources or members of their families may have a long or short position in any securities of the companies mentioned in this Strategic Analysis or in related investments. As an investment bank, Silverwood may be actively seeking to be retained by, may actually be retained by or may have in the past been retained by any of the companies mentioned in this Strategic Analysis. In addition, Silverwood personnel may have in the past provided services to certain companies mentioned in this report when employed by other firms. Furthermore, consultants to or referral sources for Silverwood, or former employees of Silverwood with continuing compensation arrangements with Silverwood, may have, or may have clients with, positions in securities referenced in this Strategic Analysis. For information on recent investment banking relationships between Silverwood and the companies mentioned in this Strategic Analysis, please contact: Chief Compliance Officer, Silverwood Partners LLC, Silverwood Farm Place, 32 Pleasant Street, Sherborn, MA 01770. Silverwood does not (i) guarantee the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, or correct sequencing of the information contained herein, or (ii) warrant any results from the use of the information contained herein. This Strategic Analysis has been prepared as of the date indicated and may become unreliable because of subsequent market or economic circumstances. IN NO EVENT WILL SILVERWOOD, ITS PARTNERS, MEMBERS, OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES, CONTRACTORS, REFERRAL SOURCES AND RELATED PERSONS, OR OTHER PERSONS TRANSMITTING THIS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS BE LIABLE TO THE USER OR ANYONE ELSE FOR ANY CONSEQUENTIAL, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, OR INDIRECT DAMAGES (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOST PROFITS, TRADING LOSSES, INVESTMENT LOSSES AND DAMAGES THAT MAY RESULT FROM THE USE OF THIS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OR FOR OMISSIONS OR INACCURACIES IN THIS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS) EVEN IF ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES. THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT A RESEARCH REPORT AS DEFINED BY NASD RULE 2711 OF FINRA. EFFECTIVE AS OF THE DATE HEREOF OR AS AMENDED. AS A CONDITION TO USING THIS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS, THE USER EXPRESSLY WAIVES ANY CLAIM THE USER MAY HAVE AGAINST SILVERWOOD, OR ANY OTHER PERSON WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS. THERE IS NO WARRANTY OF MERCHANTIBILITY, NO WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE, AND NO WARRANTY OF NONINFRINGEMENT. THERE IS NO WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, REGARDING THIS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.
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