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Infosys Result Updated
Infosys Result Updated
Infosys Result Updated
Infosys
Performance highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT 4QFY12 8,852 2,887 32.6 2,316 3QFY12 9,298 3,133 33.7 2,372 % chg (qoq) (4.8) (7.9) (108)bp (2.4) 4QFY11 7,250 2,324 32.1 1,818 % chg (yoy) 22.1 24.2 56bp 27.4
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 137,469 0.9 3,317/2,169 147,474 5 17,095 5,207 INFY.BO INFY@IN
`2,403 `2,792
12 Months
For 4QFY2012, Infosys results came in lower than our as well as streets expectations on revenue as well as operating front; however, the companys profit came in line with the expectations because of higher other income. The major disappointment came from the FY2013 USD revenue growth guidance which came in at 8-10%, much below Nasscoms estimated growth of 11-14% which is highly negative. In addition, the company gave tepid USD revenue guidance for 1QFY2013 of 0-1% qoq. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 4QFY2012, Infosys reported revenue of US$1,771mn, down 1.9% qoq, due to ramp down in certain projects in financial services industry especially in the North America geography. The companys EBITDA and EBIT declined by 108bp and 128bp to 32.6% and 29.9%, respectively, largely because of gaining from INR depreciation. PAT came in at `2,316cr, aided by other income of `652cr as against `422cr in 3QFY2012. Outlook and valuation: Management commentary has turned extremely cautious for the next years budget flush pattern. Also, the company is witnessing delays in ramp-ups of the deals being signed. This is clearly reflected in managements disappointing FY2013 guidance of merely 8-10%. In addition, for 1QFY2013, management has given USD revenue growth guidance of 0-1% qoq which indicates that management is banking on back ended growth which makes us cautious as the second half of every fiscal year is typically slow. If Infosys meets its 1QFY2013 guidance, then to achieve its full year FY2013 guidance, the company requires above 4.2% qoq USD revenue growth each quarter from 2QFY2012. Hence, we have assumed moderation in demand going forward in FY2013 and have built in a USD revenue growth of 9.8% for FY2013. Over FY2012-14E, we expect USD and INR revenue CAGR of 11.4% and 12.2%, respectively. Over FY201214E, we expect a CAGR of 10.1% and 9.5% in EBIT and PAT, respectively. We value the company at 16x FY2014E of `174.5 and recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `2,792. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 16.0 16.6 39.0 28.4
3m 5.8 (7.0)
FY2010 22,742 4.8 6,219 3.8 34.5 108.7 22.1 5.7 25.8 25.0 5.3 15.5
FY2011 27,501 20.9 6,823 9.7 32.6 119.5 20.1 5.0 25.0 25.9 4.4 13.5
FY2012 33,733 22.7 8,315 21.9 31.7 145.5 16.5 4.1 24.9 25.5 3.5 10.9
FY2013E 37,615 11.5 9,051 8.8 31.1 158.5 15.2 3.4 22.5 24.1 3.0 9.6
FY2014E 42,491 13.0 9,969 10.1 30.6 174.5 13.8 2.9 20.8 22.8 2.5 8.2
Ankita Somani
+91 22-39357800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbrkoing.com
4QFY12 8,852 4,959 3,893 1,006 2,887 240 2,647 652 3,299 984 2,316 40.5 44.0 32.6 29.9 24.4
3QFY12 9,298 5,054 4,244 1,111 3,133 234 2,899 422 3,321 949 2,372 41.5 45.6 33.7 31.2 24.4
% chg (qoq) (4.8) (1.9) (8.3) (9.5) (7.9) 2.6 (8.7) (0.7) 3.6 (2.4) (2.3) (167)bp (108)bp (128)bp (4)bp
4QFY11 7,250 4,012 3,238 914 2,324 222 2,102 415 2,517 699 1,818 31.8 44.7 32.1 29.0 23.7
% chg (yoy) 22.1 23.6 20.2 10.1 24.2 8.1 25.9 31.1 40.7 27.4 27.3 (68)bp 56bp 91bp 65bp
FY2012 33,733 18,877 14,856 4,147 10,709 931 9,778 1,904 11,683 3,368 8,315 145.5 44.0 31.7 29.0 23.3
FY2011 27,501 15,054 12,447 3,483 8,964 862 8,102 1,211 9,313 2,490 6,823 119.5 45.3 32.6 29.5 23.8
% chg (yoy) 22.7 25.4 19.4 19.1 19.5 8.0 20.7 25.4 35.2 21.9 21.8 (122)bp (85)bp (47)bp (43)bp
6.8 4.0 2.7 1.4 (0.2) (2.0) (1.4) 4.5 4.7 4.5 3.8
3.1
(1.2)
(1.5)
0 (1.5) (2) (4) 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 Revenue growth (constant currency)
Source: Company, Angel Research
(1.4)
(2.1)
Volume growth
% to revenue % growth qoq % growth yoy 62.7 16.9 20.9 6.2 7.8 4.8 3.4 2.7 31.1 6.2 4.4 0.4 (4.4) (3.1) (6.0) (0.3) (3.2) (9.5) (7.4) 1.8 (0.3) 19.2 (10.1) 30.7 11.1 16.8 0.9 8.8 15.0 (5.2) 56.6 6.6 10.2 29.3 (0.7) 10.6
Industry wise, revenue from FSI, the companys anchor industry vertical contributing 34.3% to revenue, declined by 4.7% qoq, led by 8.6% qoq de-growth in revenue from insurance. Revenues from banking and financial services industry declined by 3.7% qoq. In CC terms, revenue from FSI declined by 5.0% qoq. This was because of significant ramp down in certain projects in the North America geography. The management indicated that insurance industry vertical has not picked up as expected in terms of IT spending. The spending from banks and financial institutions is coming from work related to risk compliance, fraud prevention and regulatory kind of work, but at a slower pace. Manufacturing (contributed 21.3% to revenue) emerged as the major growth driver for the company, recording 2.4% qoq revenue growth. In CC terms, revenue from this vertical grew by 2.3% qoq. The company is seeing IT spending coming in the manufacturing industry segment from clients in terms of work related to harmonizing processes and transformation to gain cost efficiency and simplicity. The RCL segment (contributed 22.9% to revenue) posted 2.8% qoq decline in revenues, led by substantial 21.6%, 12.8% and 6.7% qoq decline in revenues from transport and logistics, healthcare and life sciences, respectively. In CC terms, revenue from RCL declined by 2.9% qoq. In this industry segment, retail is gaining traction on account of spend related to digital commerce, digital marketing and clients targeting to go global. The ECS segment (contributed 21.5% to revenue) reported 0.6% qoq decline in its revenue. In CC terms, revenue from this segment declined by 0.9% qoq. Going ahead, the company expects its deal pipeline to pick up for the telecom industry segment, with more spend coming in from the wireless space during the quarter. The company closed five large deals in this quarter three of them were above US$100mn deals.
% to revenue 34.3 27.4 6.9 21.3 22.9 15.8 1.6 3.9 1.6 21.5 6.1 10.1 5.3
% growth qoq (4.7) (3.7) (8.6) 2.4 (2.8) 1.9 (21.6) (6.7) (12.8) (0.6) (0.3) 1.1 (3.8)
% growth yoy 6.2 6.3 6.0 15.4 18.3 20.5 (15.8) 16.5 60.8 5.6 16.3 (6.2) 22.1
In terms of geographies, revenue decline was primarily led by North America, which posted 4.1% qoq decline in revenues in CC terms. Revenue from Europe and Rest of the World grew by 0.8% and 2.5% qoq in CC terms, respectively. Management indicated that client situation in Europe is more stable than in North America. The company added five new clients in Europe in 4QFY2012.
16.8
6.3 2.1
0.8
4QFY11
(4.1) 4QFY12
Hiring intact
Infosys added 10,676 gross employees in 4QFY2012, of which only 4,727 were lateral additions. The net addition number for the quarter stood at 4,906. Attrition, on LTM basis, declined to 14.7% in 4QFY2012 from 15.4% in 3QFY2012. The company has given gross hiring target of 35,000 employees in FY2012. In addition, the company made 23,000 campus offers for FY2013 (27,000 for FY2012).
Utilization rate, including trainees, declined by 270bp qoq to 67.2%, while utilization rate, excluding trainees, increased by merely 440bp qoq to 73.0% during the quarter.
77.3 74.9
77.4 73.0
2QFY12
4QFY12
Margins decline
The companys EBITDA and EBIT margin declined by 108bp and 128bp to 32.6% and 29.9%, respectively, largely because of qoq INR appreciation against USD. Management indicated that they expect EBIT margin to go down by 50-100bp in FY2013.
35 265 32.1 197 31.0 (120) 29.1 (298) (108) 33.7 32.6 34 33 32 30 29 28 27 26 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12
(%)
31
Client pyramid
Infosys added 52 new clients during the quarter, of which six are Fortune 500 clients. One client got added to the US$50mn-100mn while one client got deducted each from US$5mn-10mn and US$10mn-20mn revenue bracket. The active client base of the company increased to 694 in 4QFY2012 from 665 in 3QFY2012.
US$300mn plus
Source: Company, Angel Research
Guidance disappoints
The most disappointing thing in Infosys result was FY2013 USD revenue growth guidance at 8-10% against expectations of 12-15%. The guidance for the full year is even below IT industry body - Nasscom's forecast of 11-14%. Management indicated that it is because of uncertain global economy and currency volatility. Client budgets are flat to marginally down. Management expects FY2013 USD revenue to be in the range of US$7,553mn-7,692mn. The FY2013 EPS guidance is `158.76-161.41 (at assumed currency rate of INR/USD rate of `50.88). In addition, management has given tepid revenue guidance of almost flat qoq at US$1,771mn-1,789mn for 1QFY2013. We believe this clearly indicates
April 13, 2012
challenging visibility in business volumes and managements future expectation. Guidance numbers also indicate that management is banking on back ended growth which makes us cautious as the second half of every fiscal year is typically slow.
(`)
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
26x
22x
18x
14x
Oct-11
10x
Apr-12
10
11
12
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value DuPont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/sales) Asset turnover ratio (sales/assets) Leverage ratio (assets/equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 3.4 70 3.6 78 4.2 78 3.9 78 4.2 78 25.0 58.7 25.8 25.9 56.1 25.0 25.5 56.3 24.9 24.1 55.3 22.5 22.8 55.9 20.8 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 25.8 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 25.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 24.9 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 22.5 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 20.8 109 125 25 421 119 134 35 477 146 162 47 585 158 176 35 703 175 194 35 836 22.1 19.2 5.7 1.0 5.3 15.5 4.4 20.1 17.9 5.0 1.5 4.4 13.5 3.9 16.5 14.9 4.1 2.0 3.5 10.9 3.0 15.2 13.7 3.4 1.5 3.0 9.6 2.5 13.8 12.4 2.9 1.5 2.5 8.2 2.1 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E
13
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Infosys No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
14