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ICM 153 Minutes - Draft
ICM 153 Minutes - Draft
ROOM, LEVEL 19, MENARA BANK ISLAM, JLN PERAK, 50450 K.L ON MONDAY, 31st OCTOBER 2011 AT 02.30P.M. Present : Tuan Haji Ghazali Awang Encik Mustapha Hamat Mr. Jeroen P.M.M Thijs Puan Norashikin Mohd Kassim IC Member / Chairman IC Member IC Member IC Member
In attendance : Nazaruddin Othman Encik Hanafi Husin Puan Fatimatul Zainulha Minute By : Muhammad Faris Aizuddin
Chief Operating Officer (COO) Investment Manager Compliance Manager Investment Analyst ACTION/ INFO INFO
NO OPENING REMARK
AGENDA DISCUSSED
1.
CONFIRMATION OF MINUTES OF MEETING The previous meeting minutes of ICM No: 151 held on 19th August 2011 was reviewed and confirmed by the meeting committee, subject to amendments of the highlighted items. MEETING SECRETARY
2.
MATTERS ARISING 2a. Appointment of the New Chief Investment Officer (CIO) COO highlighted to the committee that the new CIO will report on duty on 29th November 2011. The new CIO is the seconded staff from Bank Islam. 2b. Suggestion for ICM to be held in monthly basis Chairman suggested for ICM to be held in monthly basis Chairman also suggested that ICM should be proceed even though at the absent for any of IC member as long as three IC member present during the meeting INFO
3.
FUND PERFORMANCE AND RANKING 3.1 FUNDS RETURN The following performance review is for the period from 31st July 2011 to 31st August 2011.
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
The following performance review is for the period from 31st August 2011 to 30th September 2011.
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
Fund NAV (RM) Unit in Circulation Fund NAV per unit(RM) Unrealised Equi ty - Profi t (Los s ) Bonds - Profi t (Los s ) Money Market Unrealised Profit Unrealised Loss
168,862,637 168,257,268
Net Profit/(Loss)
1,037,708
3,615,263
Review The fund recorded realized loss of RM930.5k as compared to realized gain of RM264k previously. The funds total gross loss to date was RM 683.6k. INFO
The funds recorded net unrealized gain of RM1.04m as compared to RM3.6m previously Strategy Equity exposure reduced from 80.2% to 69.9%. Equity and portfolio beta reduced from 1.07x to 1.01x and from 0.77x to 0.71x respectively.
AL-MUNSIF
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
Review
The fund recorded realized gain of RM 659k as compared to RM 473k reported previously. The funds total gross profit to date was RM3.43 m The funds recorded net unrealized loss of -RM 2.5m as compared to unrealized gain of RM 365k previously
Strategy
Equity exposure reduced from 54.7% to 52.9% due to net sell Equity increased from 1.08x to 1.11x and portfolio beta reduced from 0.63x to 0.59x To maintain equity exposure at the current level.
INFO
AL FALAH
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
Review
The fund recorded realized gain of RM 194k as compared to RM 158k reported previously. The funds total gross profit to date was RM 2.25m The funds recorded net unrealized loss of -RM 1.02m as compared to unrealized gain of RM 132k previously. INFO
Strategy
Equity exposure reduce from 48.2% to 45.6% Equity increased from 1.22x to 1.23x and portfolio reduced from 0.73x to 0.67x.
AL FAKHIM
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
Review
The fund earned an income of RM 45.1k as compared to RM 42.3k previously. The total income recorded to-date was RM 570.7k. The funds recorded net unrealized gain of RM 141k as compared to RM 68k reported previously.
INFO
Strategy
Sukuk exposure at 81%, invested in Government Investment Issue (GII) and 19% was in money market, which consists of GIA and SIA. Fund strategy is to participate in any existing or new issuance of P1 or Marc-1 Commercial paper tenders (if any)
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
INFO
Review
The fund earned an income of RM 693k as compared to RM 741k reported previously. The total income recorded to-date was RM 1.433 mil.
Strategy
Fund strategy is to participate in any existing or new issuance of P1 or Marc-1 Commercial paper tenders (if any)
Review The fund earned an income of RM 24k as compared to RM 33k reported previously. The total income recorded to-date was RM 139k. The funds recorded net unrealized loss of -RM 88k as compared to a loss of -RM 53k reported previously INFO
Strategy Equity exposure reduced from 45.7% to 69.6%. Equity beta marginally increased from 0.77x to 0.79 and from 0.35x to 0.55x respectively
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
Review The fund recorded realized gain of RM 199.7k as compared to realized loss of RM 930.5k previously. The funds total gross loss to date was -RM 483.9k. The fund recorded net unrealized loss of RM 682.1k as compared to unrealized gain of RM 1.04m previously. INFO
Strategy Equity exposure reduced from 69.9% to 69.2% (77.7% to 76.9% of 90% equity exposure for the fund) Equity beta marginally reduced from 1.02x to 1.01x and portfolio beta marginally increased from 0.71x to 0.72x
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AL-MUNSIF
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
Review The fund recorded realized gain of RM 209.9k as compared to RM 659.1k reported previously. The funds total gross profit to date was RM 209.9k. The funds recorded un-realized gain of RM 830k as compared to RM 638k reported previously.
INFO
Strategy Equity exposure reduced from 53.5% to 51.4% (89.17% to 85.67% of 60% equity exposure for the fund) Equity and portfolio beta reduced from 1.27x to 1.09x and from 0.68x to 0.56x respectively. To maintain equity exposure at current level
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AL FALAH
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
Review The fund recorded realized gain of RM 85.1k as compared to RM 193.5k reported previously. The funds total gross profit to date was RM 85.1k. The fund recorded net unrealized loss of RM 1.7m as compared to loss of RM 1.0m previously. INFO
Strategy Equity exposure reduced from 45.6% to 45.1% (65.1% to 64.4% of 70% equity exposure for the fund). Equity and portfolio beta increased from 1.38x to 1.11x and from 0.63x to 0.5x respectively.
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AL FAKHIM
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
Review The fund earned an income of RM 43.0k as compared to RM 45.1k previously. The total income recorded to-date was RM 43.0k. The funds recorded net unrealized gain of RM 132.9k as compared to RM 140.0k reported previously.
Strategy Sukuk exposure at 83.1%, invested in Government Investment Issue (GII) and 16.9% was in money market which consists of GIA and SIA. Fund strategy is to participate in any existing or new issuance of P1 or Marc-1 Commercial paper tenders (if any)
INFO
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BIMB Invest Money Market Realised Bonds Money Market As at 30 September 2011 Curr Cum Current Previous
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
2,230,545 2,230,545
Unrealised Bonds - Profit (Loss) Money Market Unrealised Profit Unrealised Loss Net Profit/(Loss)
Review The fund earned an income of RM 796k as compared to RM693k previously. The total income recorded to-date was RM2.23m
Strategy INFO
Fund strategy is to participate in any existing or new issuance of P1 or Marc-1 Commercial paper tenders (if any)
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BIMB I-DIVIDEND
Review The fund earned an income of RM 72.7k as compared to RM 24.2k reported previously. The total income recorded to-date was RM 212.0k. The funds recorded net unrealized loss of RM 380.1k as compared to loss of RM 390.5k reported previously.
Strategy Equity exposure reduced from 69.9% to 69.2% Equity and portfolio beta increased from 0.79x to 0.81x and from 0.55x to 0.56x respectively
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INFO 4. MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK (For August 2011) 4.1 Market Review For the month of August 2011, the KLCI plunged 102pts or -6.6% to 1,447 points.
Global markets came under heavy selling pressure due to the downgraded on US credit rating and concern on Europe crisis. In addition, the disappointing August financial results season weighed down on many larger cap GLCs including Axiata, MISC, PetChem, CIMB, MAS and Proton. 4.2 Global Indicators US Leading Indicators rose to 0.5% mom in July. The US Conference Boards index of leading indicators, which provides an early signal on the direction of the economy over the next three to six months, rose to 0.5% mom in July, after moderating to +0.3% in June but lower than the +0.7% gain in May. The mom improvement in the leading index lifted the six-month annualized rate of change to 6.0% in July, from +5.2% in June, but lower than the high of +8.2% in March, suggesting that the pace of the recovery remains weak. Global PMI for Services Moderated in August Global PMI for services moderated to 52.0 in August after a short rebound to 53.0 in July as compared to 52.2 in June Despite the moderation, the reading suggests that global services activities continued to expand even though at a moderate pace US PMI of the ISM for non manufacturing picked up in August The PMI pick up in August of 53.3 was the first in 3 months and was higher than the median forecast of 51.0, suggesting that consumer spending held up well during the month even as unemployment remained high at above 9.0% Foreign Fund Flow as at 9 Sept 2011 On the week ended as at 9 September, there was an outflow of foreign investment to Asian equity amounted to USD2.0b, based on data from the 7 proxy markets (Korea, Taiwan, Thai, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and India.) There was a significant outflow from the Developed markets of Korea and Taiwan amounted USD1.2b and USD1.1b respectively In the local market, foreign investors remained net buyers for the second conservative weeks, in thin trading. They bought equity amounted to RM85.2m or an average of only RM17m per day, compared with an average of RM170m the week before. Local institutions were on the sideline. Gross trade amounted to only RM5.5b compared with an average for a full trading week this year of RM8.1b.
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4.3 Local Indicator GDP Slowed Down to 4.0%yoy 2Q 2011 The Malaysian real GDP growth slowing down to 4.0% yoy in 2Q 2011, compared to +4.9% in the 1Q and +9.0% in the corresponding quarter of 2010. This was due to a moderation in consumer and business spending during the quarter Private and public investment weakened in the 2Q, leading to a slower increase in domestic demand. These were however, mitigated by a pickup in real export growth, which grew at a faster pace during the quarter. On the supply side, the manufacturing sector slowed down in the 2Q, due partly to Japans earthquake that had disrupted the supply chain and production as well as weaker domestic demand The services sector moderated slightly, because of slower consumer and business spending. The mining output contracted by a larger magnitude, while construction activities weakened sharply during the quarter. These, however, mitigated by a strong rebound in agriculture output. Domestic demand expected to improve in the 3Q and gather pace in the 4Q. Growth will likely be driven by higher business spending and resilience in consumer spending. CPI eased to 3.4% yoy in July 2011 The inflation eased to 3.4% yoy in Jul from 3.5% in June. The headline inflation was lower than consensus (3.6%). This was due to easing on transport prices but prices of food and housing and utilities remained high. BNM should continue to hold rates at 3.00% in Sep. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is believed to keep the overnight policy rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.00% for the second time in a row at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on 8 Sep.
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4.4 Market Outlook : Equity Negative outlook from the US credit sentiment is spilling over to the global market. We expect a downtrend movement in the market will continue in the next few weeks. Eurozone sovereign debt crisis remain a concern. Cautious on unexpected events could cause the reversal of capital flow earlier than expected. Domestically, news flow continue to be positive especially those sectors in the Governments ETP, but may still be clouded by global developments. Corrections may occur from time to time but equity market will be supported by high liquidity. At 1,477 points, FBMKLCI trades at 12.58x forward PE. 4.5 Market Outlook : IDS Private Debts Securities (PDS) trading volume surged by 58.2% month-on-month (MoM) to RM10.7 billion (July 2011: RM6.7 billion). The AA rating and AAA rating segments continued to garner the strongest trade shares at 42% and 36% respectively, while the A rating and non-rated segments were less popular but volumes were close to the RM1.0 billion mark with 10.3% and 9% trade shares respectively. Investors lack of confidence amid the U.S and Euro debt crisis can be seen through recent trading trends, which skewed to safe-haven papers. Papers on government related entities, banking and power sector dominated with approximately 75% of total PDS trades in August 2011. Credit environment deteriorated, as the positive/negative ratio declined from 0.50x to 0.20x MoM Looking forward, government bonds yield expected to be remains supported with anticipation that BNM holds the OPR at 3.0% until end of this year as growth concerns outweigh inflation risks. The central bank is believed to reassess its monetary stance in November as it gauges the impact from the recent volatility in the financial markets on the domestic economy. To look for sovereign Islamic securities or high credit papers with the focus will be more on new issues of Islamic corporate bond The following tables depict the yield changes of the sovereign and AAArated Sukuk/Islamic Bonds and Conventional Bonds for 3-year, 5-year, 7-year and 10year tenures
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5.
MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK (For September 2011) 5.1 Market Review For the month ended September, FBMKLCI down 60pts or 4.1% to 1,387 points. Average value traded on Bursa in September eased 15% mom to RM1.81bn per day (RM2.14bn previously) as investors continued to de-risk as fears of a double-dip in Europe and US peaked. Emerging markets outperformed other markets in July and August but succumbed to heavy profit taking and selling pressure towards mid-September 5.2 Global Indicators The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) down for the 4 straight month. The OECD composite leading indicators (CLI) continued to point to slowing economic activity in most OECD countries and non-member economies. The OECD CLI fell 0.50pt mom to 101.57pts in Jul (-0.43pt in Jun), marking the fourth straight
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month of widening declines in major economies, suggesting slower economic activities going forward. The CLIs for the United States, Eurozone, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the UK show stronger signs of slower economic activity on the horizon. However, Japans CLI points to a potential turning point in economic activity. This indicates the advanced economies continue to worsen markedly. The CLIs for emerging economies i.e. Brazil, Russia, India and China continued to record negative monthly changes, suggesting a continued moderate pace of economic growth. The CLIs for China and India contracted at a slower pace while those for Brazil and Russia accelerated. The CLIs for major Asian economies point the same trend. The magnitude of the slowdown will differ from country to country, as some countries will cushion by resilient domestic demand. US Economy Grew At A Revised 1.3% Annualized In The 2Q The US real GDP grew at a revised annualized rate of 1.3% in the 2Q, faster than +1.0% estimated last month, underpinned by higher-than-expected contribution from net exports, as exports grew at a faster pace than earlier estimate and imports growth came in at a much slower pace. Slightly stronger-than-expected consumer spending, which grew by 0.7% in the 2Q versus + 0.4% estimated last month but weaker than 1Q with recorded a growth of +2.1. Consensus expects the US economy to expand by 1.8% annualized in the 3Q (down from the previous estimate of 2.1%), before inching up to +2.2% in the 4Q (down from the previous estimate of 2.5%) IMF Lowered Its Forecast Of Global Growth The International Monetary Fund(IMF) slashed its forecast of global growth to 4.0% in 2011 and 2012, or by 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively, from the earlier forecast of +4.3% and +4.5% respectively made in June, as global economic activity has turned weaker and more uneven, on top of falling confidence, resulting in increasing downside risks. This was attributed to cuts in the growth forecast of advanced economies to 1.6% and 1.9%, from +2.2% and +2.6% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, due to the weaker outlook in the Eurozone economy. Eurozones Manufacturing And Services Activities Contracted In September Eurozones Preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector, which records manufacturing activity across all the major Eurozone economies, fell to 48.4 in September, from 49.0 in August. This was the lowest reading since August 2009, and marked the second straight month of contraction in manufacturing activities, on the back of falling confidence in the economic outlook in the region. This was due to a sharper decline in new orders, which fell for the fourth consecutive month and at the steepest rate since May 2009 during the month. Eurozones Preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the services sector, slipped into a contraction at 49.1 in September, compared with 51.5 in August. This was the lowest since July 2009, dragged down by a contraction in activity and new business inflow during the month. As a whole, the regions composite index fell to 49.2 in September, from 50.7 in August, marking the first month of contraction in more than two years. The forward-looking indicators indicated higher risk of further contraction in the coming
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months. This suggests that the Eurozone economy will likely stagnate in the 3Q, after slowing to +0.2% qoq in the 2Q. Foreign Fund Flow as at 30 Sept 2011 On the week ended, 30 September, there was an aggregate net inflow of foreign investment amounted to USD1.2b from the seven proxy markets i.e. Korea, Taiwan, Thai, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and India. The flow of data was mixed among emerging markets. There was a net inflow to Indonesia, Korea and Taiwan amounted to USD844m, USD502m and USD144m respectively. Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines reported an outflow of USD118m, USD21 and USD49m respectively. Locally, local institutions were net buyers while local retailers were net seller.
5.3 Local Indicator Leading Index (LI) sustained at 1.9% yoy in July The Leading Index (LI), which provides an early signal of the direction that the economy is heading, sustained at a moderate growth of 1.9% yoy in July, suggesting that the economy is likely to hold up well in the months ahead amid the challenging global economic environment. This was reflected in a decline in both the Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index (-0.1%) and real imports of semi-conductors (-0.1%) during the month. Similarly, the real money supply and expected manufacturing sales stagnated (0.0%) in July, after growing by +0.2% and +0.1% respectively in June. These however, mitigated by stagnation in the real imports of other basic precious and other non-ferrous metals (0.0%) in July, compared with a decline of 0.2% in June. The number of housing permits approved, on the other hand, grew at the same pace (+0.1%) in July, the same as in the previous month. Similarly, the number of new companies registered fell at the same pace (- 0.1%) during the month, as in June. We believe that domestic drivers will support the continued expansion of domestic demand. Inflation eased to 3.3% in August The headline inflation rate moderated to 3.3% yoy in August, marking the second straight month of easing, from +3.4% in July and off a 26-month high of +3.5% in June. This came in line with market expectations (3.3%). This was primarily due to a moderation in the food & non-alcoholic beverage prices. Going forward, inflation will likely moderate but stay elevated at around 2.8% in 2012, compared with +3.3% estimated for 2011 driven by reduction in subsidies for fuel and power tariff by government. As slower economic growth and demand will likely to mitigate the impact. This likely be aided by lower commodities and crude oil price As a result, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is believe to hold its OPR unchanged at 3.0% in the near future, as the downside risk to the Malaysian economic growth has increased and the Central Bank has shifted its focus from inflation to growth.
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Manufacturing Sales edged up to 10.8% yoy in July Manufacturing sales edged up to 10.8% yoy in July, faster than the revised growth of +10.0% in June. This was the fastest growth in three months but is unlikely to sustain due to weaker growth prospect in the manufacturing sector resulted from almost stagnant in exports of manufactured goods during the month. Because of softening sales performance, manufacturering sector turned more cautious in its recruitment of workers in July. In total, 1.019 million workers were hired in the sector for July, a decrease of 2,721 workers hired from previous month of June . Going forward, outlook of the economy will still clouded by fear that the Eurozones debt crisis could not be resolved any time soon and it is showing signs of worsening.
5.4 Market Outlook : Equity Negative outlook from the US credit sentiment is spilling over to the global market Eurozone sovereign debt crisis remain a concern. Market is driven by news flow of Eurozone and US. Another correction is expected but with limited downside as market has scaled down of worst-case scenario i.e. Greece to be defaulted. Domestically, news flow continued to be positive: News flow in construction (MRT, LRT, government land development) Rising Petronas capex spending RM300bn over next 5 years Mergers & acquisitions (M&A) General election Local market may still be clouded by global developments. Local equity market will be supported by high liquidity 5.5 Market Outlook: IDS In the last MPC meeting held in September 2011, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) maintained the OPR and SRR at 3.00% and 4.00% respectively. BNM is unlikely to raise OPR further in near term as inflationary pressure had subsided and external environment posed downside risk to the Malaysian economy, compounded by the strengthening of US dollar. PDS trading volume increased by merely 8% MoM to RM11.5 billion in September 2011. The AA segment continued to dominate trade with 45% trading share followed by the AAA segment with 36% share. The reopening of GII 11/16 auction drew strong demand with bid-to-cover ratio of 2.8x compared with the last opening of 5-year GII with bid-to-cover ratio of 1.9x. The RM4 billion, 5-year GII sold at an average yield of 3.375%. Looking forward, PDS trading will remain active, with net buying opportunities still exist. Even amidst risk of slowing economic growth and corporate earnings, credit conditions have not deteriorated. At end of September, a total of 33 facilities were carrying Negative ratings outlook by either RAM Ratings or MARC, versus a total of 38 facilities at end December 2010. To look for sovereign Islamic securities or high credit papers with the focus will be more on new issues of Islamic corporate bond. The following tables depict the yield changes of the sovereign and AAArated Sukuk/Islamic Bonds and Conventional Bonds for 3-year, 5-year, 7-year and 10-year tenures.
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6.
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6.1 Investment Premises Rising concern on global economic growth in 2011. Local market will be clouded by external factors. 6.2 Asset Allocation With the external factors that are expected to have an impact on our market outlook and economy, our target asset allocation would be: Equity : 75 % of maximum equity exposure of the fund Fixed Income/Cash: 25 6.3 Investment Focus A defensive investment strategy Stock selection: Good earnings visibility & strong balance sheet High dividend yield High liquidity INFO
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7.
OTHER MATTERS 7.1 Proposal to restructure of ASBI Dana al-Munsif, ASBI Dana al-Falah and ASBI Dana al-Fakhim PROPOSED CEO proposed to restructure Dana al-Falah, Dana al-Munsif and Dana Al-Fakhim Under the proposal, CEO proposed: i. To consolidate Dana al-Munsif and Dana al-Falah ii. To change the category for Dana al-Fakhim iii. To change trustee for the eventual 2 funds iv. To rebrand and relaunch the consolidated fund and the new category of fund. The investment committee approved the proposal for the consolidation of Dana alMunsif and Dana al-Falah 7.2 Sector Review Sector review are as follows:
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Sector
1) Plantation
Sub-Sector
-
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3)Construction
Positive(Maintained)
4)Properties
Neutral (Maintained)
5) Consumer Products
Automobile Media
6)Industrial Products
Building Material
Manufacturing
Negative (Maintained)
Log/Timber
Negative (Maintained)
8.
COMPLIANCE FZ confirmed that all funds comply with the regulatory requirements for both months under review (March and April). INFO
CONCLUSION With no other matters arising, the meeting adjourned at 04:30pm and a note of thanks to all attendees.
NOTED BY IC MEMBERS
Confirmed as correct,
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