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BTG Pactual XII CEO Conference: February 2011
BTG Pactual XII CEO Conference: February 2011
February 2011
Disclaimer
This presentation may include declarations about Mills expectations regarding future events or results. All declarations based upon future expectations, rather than
historical facts, are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Mills cannot guarantee that such declarations will prove to be correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the following: the Brazilian economy, capital markets, infrastructure,
real estate and oil & gas sectors, among others, and governmental rules, that are
subject to change without previous notice. To obtain further information on factors that may give rise to results different from those forecasted by Mills, please consult the reports filed with the Brazilian Comisso de Valores Mobilirios (CVM).
Presentation Agenda
Growth plan
Mills at a Glance
Uncontested market leader in providing temporary concrete formwork and tubular structures in the Brazilian market One of the major players in the industrial services and motorized access equipment Long-term relationship with the major companies in the sector
Jahu
Rental
16%
30%
39%
38%
Entrance of PE Funds
600
500
80
400 180
Rental
56.6%
300
35%
Industrial Services
14.6%
18.4%
200
90
193 18%
100
159
31%
45 26 42 80 EBITDA
46.2%
27.3%
50.3%
29.6%
0 Net Revenue
13Q10
Net EBITDA revenues (R$ million) (R$ million) Heavy Construction Jahu Residential and Commercial Industrial Services Rental Total 120.1
13% yoy
60.3
13% yoy
72.4
65% yoy
32.2
46% yoy
139.0
39% yoy
20.3
40% yoy
14.6%
16.5%
64.3
66% yoy
36.3
64% yoy
56.5%
37.7%
19.3%
22.0%
395.7
37% yoy
149.2
33% yoy
% Total Capital
Nacht Participaes
39.0
Free float
57.2
Management 3.8
Presentation Agenda
Growth plan
10
11
Source: BNDES
PAC 1
Investments realized until October 2010: R$ 559.6 billion, or 85.1% of the expected amount for the 2007-2010 period PAC 1 will continue beyond 2010, with estimated investments of R$ 115.6 billion for 2011 onwards
Realized PAC investments Until october 31, 2010, Total = R$ 559.6 billion
1States,
OGU/Fiscal and Seguridade, and counterpart of of States and Municipalities Source: Report 11 Balano do PAC
13
PAC 2
PAC 2 starts in 2011, with estimated investments of R$ 1.5 trillion
PAC 2 Investments
2011-2014 Total: R$ 955 billion
In R$ billion
Logistic Others Roads 12 48 Railroads 44
Urbanization 58
14
15
The investment in cement capacity expansion corroborates with the good expectations for the construction sector for the next years.
Installed capacity of cement will increase 7% per year until 2016 to meet fast growing demand in Brazil
Cement consumption per capita in Brazil is one of the lowest among the 10 largest world consumers
Installed capacity and planned expansions
in thousand tons
Consumption profile of the 10 largest world consumers China
120,000
1.2 1.0
Per capita (t)
South Korea
Spain
100,000 80,000
60,000 40,000
67,200
Southeast
Midwest
0.8
0.6
0.4 0.2 -
Northeast
North
20,000
2009 2010-2014 2012-2016
Total
100
200
300
16
155.00 150.00
145.00
140.00 135.00
1,500
130.00
1,000
125.00
500
Jan-2009 Feb-2009 Mar-2009 Apr-2009 May-2009 Jun-2009 Jul-2009 Aug-2009 Sept-2009 Oct-2009 Nov-2009 Dec-2009 Jan-2010 Feb-2010 Mar-2010 Apr-2010 May-2010 Jun-2010 Jul-2010 Aug-2010
120.00
Source: Brazilian Central Bank - BACEN and Brazilian Treasury -Tesouro Nacional
17
Investments in infrastructure
To ensure its competitiveness in the global scenario and sustainable growth rates, Brazil will have to invest strongly in infrastructure in the coming years
Infrastructure deficit
USA Index = 1.0, average 2008-2009
Roads
Railways
Ports
Infrastructure
China
0.71
China
0.85
China
0.75
China
0.68
India
0.53
India
0.94
India
0.61
India
0.54
Russia
0.41
Russia
0.81
Russia
0.61
Russia
0.56
Brazil
0.47
Brazil
0.38
Brazil
0.46
Brazil
0.58
USA
1.00
USA
1.00
USA
1.00
USA
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
18
Infrastructure indicators
Port
Airway
Annual Passanger Population (million)
88.0
66.0
312.3
65.3 21.7
47.7
Atlanta, US London, UK Beijing, Guarulhos, CN BR
1958
2010
Source: Veja, December 29, 2010 (PricewaterhouseCoopers, Associao Nacional dos Transportes Ferrovirios), Exame Anurio 2010-2011 (Dnit, Infraero and ACI)
19
Infrastructure investments
Investments in infrastructure in Brazil are still low compared to other countries
8.00%
7.30%
7.00%
6.20%
6.00%
5.00% 4.00%
5.63%
5.80%
3.00%
2.20%
2.00%
1.85%
2.11%
2.18%
1.00%
0.00%
2002 2004 2006 2010E India Colombia Chile China
Brazil
Source: Veja, December 29 , 2010
20
Diviso Construo
21
22
Brazilian housing deficit is of at least 7.2 million houses Housing financing has increased 5x in the last five years, driven by credit availability, lower inflation and lower interest rate Housing financing is very small compared to other countries. In 2008, the Brazilian total housing financing/GDP was 3%, compared to 72% in England, 19% in Chile and 12% in Hungary. Minha Casa Minha Vida: government program for low income housing Investments of R$ 34 billion and potential increment by R$ 278 billion with PAC2 Increasing focus on cost reduction and shorter construction cycle, reducing competitiveness of less
efficient developers
23
Source: Brazilian Central Bank
The light construction market is driven by the real estate credit availability
Real estate credit availability continues to increase at 3-4% per month rate
Real Estate Credit Availability
140,000
120,000
7.0%
6.0%
24
25
26
Direct Foreign Investment should double to US$ 54 billion in 2012, compared to the 2009 level
Total investment in Oil & Gas in Brazil is expected to be R$ 378 billion in the period 2011-2014, of which US$ 303 billion, or 80%, from Petrobras
27
Source: Brazilian Central Bank, Ipeadata, BNDES and Banco Ita
Oil & Gas segment will require large investments in exploration, production and refining in the coming years
In September, Petrobras issued a follow-on in the total amount of R$ 115.1 billion to support its US$ 224.0 billion investment plan for the 2010-2014 period
Five refineries (Abreu e Lima - PE, Premium I - MA , Premium II CE, Clara Camaro - RN and
COMPERJ refinery - RJ) should be developed Modernization and expansion of refineries: works in nine refineries in progress Two petrochemicals: Petroqumica Suape (PE), under construction, and COMPERJ petrochemical (RJ) Investments associated to pre-salt: Exploration and production: Petrobras will invest US$ 33 billion in the pre-salt between 2010 and 2014 Ports: investments of up to US$ 20 billion in terminals or port areas for activities, such as offshore operations support, naval activities support, among others Shipyards: R$ 7.4 billion for the construction of ten shipyards and remodeling the existing ones Drilling rigs: construction of 28 drilling rigs, with estimated total cost of US$ 22 billion
Source: Report 10 Balano do PAC, Prospect of Petrobras Public Offer, Setrans-RJ, Sedeis-RJ, O Globo
28
ThyssenKrupp CSA Siderrgica do Atlntico Setrans-RJ, Sedeis-RJ, O Globo, Valor Fonte: 10 Balano do PAC, Prospecto de Oferta Pblica da Petrobras, Baa de Sepetiba, RJ
29
29
Products:
Rental and sale of motorized access equipment, such as aerial work platforms and telescopic handlers, to lift people or cargo, respectively
Market leader
Business started in 2008 Cross-selling with all other Mills divisions
30
The Brazilian aerial platforms and telehandler fleet is very small compared to the US fleet (8,000
units versus 721,000 units in 2009) Modest rental penetration of 15% in Brazil. Rental penetration is approximately 40% in the USA, 60% in Japan and 80% in England Recent regulation obliges the use of aerial platforms to lift people, increasing safety and productivity in the work site Brazilian fleet should increase at average annual rate of 22% in the next few years and reach 25,000
units by 2014
Source: Terex
31
Presentation Agenda
Growth plan
32
Capex
In R$ milion
338 337
76 55
33
Capex
In R$ million
1,100
58
353
112%
247
298%
209
173% 212%
(1)
Total
747
34
Due to the strong demand, we have brought forward our geographic expansion plan
61 55 49 40
20
35
We operate in the Brazilian states with the highest expected investments in infrastructure
Branches locations end of 2010
Roraima
Amap
Amazonas Par Maranho Cear Rio Grande do Norte Paraiba Piaui Acre Tocantins Rondnia Mato Grosso Distrito Federal Bahia Sergipe Pernambuco Alagoas
Parana
Rio de Janeiro
(sede)
36
Modelo de Negcio Attractive Dinmica SetorialUnique Business nico com fortes Industry Atraente em todosModel with Solid Vantagens Competitive Dynamics in os Segmentos competitivas Advantages Each Business
37