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Foxconn Yuanta Report
Foxconn Yuanta Report
Foxconn Yuanta Report
Our view
We turn positive on FIH as we expect its gains at HTC and China brands will help it offload Nokias impact in the long run. of the takeoff of entry-level smartphones in 2012. We view FIH as a key beneficiary
We cut our 2011-12F EPS by 95%/47%, but expect a turnaround to arrive in 2H11.
Company profile: Foxconn International Holdings, a part of the Hon Hai Group, is a vertically integrated handset EMS that services leading global handset brands.
Share price performance relative to Hang Seng Index
7.0
Share Price (HK$) Performance relative to Hang Seng Index (%)
-32 4.0 3.5 3.0 Aug-10 -37 -42 -47 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11
Market cap 6M avg. daily turnover Outstanding shares Free float Major shareholders Net debt/equity BVPS (2011F) P/B (2011F)
Financial outlook (US$ mn) Year to Dec Sales Op. profit Net profit EPS (US$) EPS growth (%) DPS (US$) P/E (X) Div. yield (%) ROE (%) 2009 7,214 (32) 39 0.01 (67.9) 0.00 81.5 0.0 1.1 2010A 6,626 (216) (218) (0.03) N.M. 0.00 N.M. 0.0 (6.1)
US$3,206.2 mn US$5.2 mn 7,203.3 mn 29% Hon Hai group, 70.5%% Net cash US$0.48 0.9x
sell-in strength in 2H11 on its launches of new models should provide near-term momentum to FIH. Our new TP of HK$4.50 (down from HK$5.20) is based on the average of our P/B and price/sales valuation methodologies, and implies 30% upside. Thus, we upgrade to BUY. HTC adds fresh driving force: We anticipate HTC to contribute 10% 8% of HTCs volume, mostly in mid- and low-end smartphones.
of FIHs revenue in 2012 based on the assumption that FIH will gain
key ODM/EMS service provider to China handset brands such as Huawei, we expect FIH to capitalize on its China customers fast offerings to smartphones and tablet PCs.
turnaround based its sell-in strength in 2H11, for the long term we expect FIH to gradually offload Nokias impact following FIHs gain at HTC and increasing contribution from China handset brands.
lighter cost base in 2H11 following the completion of its relocation its parent company Hon Hai (2317 TT; BUY).
Primary Analyst: Bonnie Chang +852 3969 9904 bonnie.chang@yuanta.com With significant contribution from:
Kelly Hsu
+886 2 3518 7947 kelly.hsu@yuanta.com
ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 10. Yuanta does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
for the long term we expect FIH to gradually offload Nokias impact following FIHs HTC adds fresh driving force: Based on our channel checks, we believe FIH has
While it is hard to judge Nokias turnaround based on its sell-in strength in 2H11,
been chosen by HTC as its first manufacturing outsourcing partner starting from 2H11, albeit at small volume, on top of its incumbent component supplies (e.g. casing) to HTC. The revenue contribution will be small in 2011, but we expect it 2012. We anticipate HTC to contribute 10% of FIHs revenue in 2012 based on the assumption that FIH will gain 8% HTCs volume of 68 mn units, which are mostly mid- and low-end smartphones.
to expand gradually after HTC raises low- and mid-end range product lineups in
Benefits from China handset customers market share gains: According to IDC,
Huawei posted a handset shipment CAGR of 31% in 2008-2010 to 18.1 mn units, and continued gaining share in the global handset market with growth in 1H11 of 209% YoY to 19.1 mn units. Following its success in the feature phone market, Huawei expanded its
2010. According to our channel checks, Huawei set a shipment target of 20 mn smartphone units in 2011, up from a mere 1.8 mn units in 2010. In 1H11, Huaweis smartphone shipments reached 5.8 mn units.
footprint into the smartphone market with an eye on entry-level products in late
As a key ODM/EMS service provider to China handset brands such as Huawei, we expect FIH to capitalize on its China-based customers fast volume growth in tablet PCs. Yuanta
Hong Kong: Handsets 30 Aug, 2011
the global handset market and improving product offerings to smartphones and
Potential new China smartphone customer: Our latest checks with ZTE suggest it is considering outsourcing its high-end products (i.e. smartphones and tablet PCs) to FIH in order to catch up with the fast-growing smart device market. ZTE
has been keeping most of its handset manufacturing in-house. In 2010, ZTE shipped 50 mn handsets, of which 1.8 mn were smartphones. In 1H11, ZTE
units of handset shipments, while its smartphone shipments accounted for 9% smartphone shipments in 2011 from 1.8 mn units in 2010. We have not yet
or 2.97 mn units of its total shipment. The company is targeting 12 mn units of factored in any contribution from ZTE, thus any order wins at ZTE will represent upside potential to our current estimates. Figure 2: FIHs client breakdown by revenue
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011F 2012F
Upon the end of its inland move (from Shenzheng, Gundong to Langfang, Hebei) and disposal of redundant assets (i.e. the Taiyuan plant) by the end of 1H11, Langfang will be the major manufacturing site for FIH. Therefore, we expect FIHs streamlining of its cost structure and asset consolidation to pay off gradually in its China based customers. 2H11, following the kick-in of new smartphone and tablet projects from HTC and
As a cost-down measure, we expect several major handset makers will change their smartphone outsourcing strategies upon their attempts to enter the mass smartphone market. Nokia, HTC, Motorola and ZTE had kept smartphone
manufacturing in-house in the past, but are now either beginning to or are about to leverage EMS/ODM partners for scale and cost synergies, represent a new stream of growth drivers to the handset outsourcing market. We expect the trend of rising smartphone outsourcing to take off in 2012 and thereafter revive capable handset top picks on this theme; but for different reasons (for details on our recent BYDE
EMS/ODM service providers business. FIH and BYD Electronic (285 HK; BUY) are our
Yuanta
Hong Kong: Handsets 30 Aug, 2011
smartphones vs. feature phones, we believe only handset EMS and ODM makers outsourcing.
who have the capability and know-how can benefit from this rise in smartphone
Earnings revisions
cut our 2011F EPS by 95% to US$0.002 and 2012F EPS by 47% to US$0.026. We our previous expectation.
In view of the 1H11 results and the turnaround coming later than we expected, we
continue to expect FIH to remain profitable in 2012, despite a lower net income vs.
Yuanta
Hong Kong: Handsets 30 Aug, 2011
Valuation
Our target price of HK$4.50 (previously HK$5.20) implies 29.7% upside potential. Our target price of HK$4.50 implies 30% upside potential (Figure 3) valuation methodologies, as P/B and price/sales provide valuation support in downcycles, in our view. Forward P/B valuation We continue to derive our target price from the average of our P/B and price/sales
We apply a target multiple of 1.0x to our 2012F BVPS of HK$3.97 and derive a value of HK$3.97. We expect FIHs fundamentals to bottom out in 2H11 and the stocks valuation should begin to reflect its likely earnings turnaround in 2012, and we previous 1.2x to 1.0x mainly to reflect our lower net profit estimate for 2012. Forward P/sales valuation
therefore switch to using our 2012F BVPS. Our target multiple is lowered from the
We apply 0.6x price/sales valuation to our 2012F sales of US$8.0 bn (HK$8.45 sales per share) which yields a value of HK$5.07. The 0.6x price/sales is at discount to FIHs three-year trading average of 0.71x and the one-year trading average of
0.67x, given our low sales forecasts for FIH in 2012 compared to US$10.7 bn in 2007 and US$9.3 bn in 2008. Our target multiple is unchanged.
Yuanta
Hong Kong: Handsets 30 Aug, 2011
-113.4% 125.5%
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Yuanta Research estimates Notes: EPS of FIH is shown in US dollars; BYDE is shown in RMB. For other stocks, share prices and EPS figures are shown in their local currency.
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Yuanta Research estimates Notes: BVPS of FIH is shown in US dollars; BYDE is shown in RMB. For other stocks, BVPS figures are shown in local currency.
Yuanta
Hong Kong: Handsets 30 Aug, 2011
Figure 7: Foxconn Intl Holdingss semi-annual & annual earnings highlights (consolidated basis)
(US$ mn) Sales COGS Gross profit Operating expenses Operating profit Non-op profit Pre-tax profit Minority Income tax Net income FD WA EPS (US$) Wtd. avg. no. of shares Margin analysis Gross margin Operating margin Pre-tax margin Effective tax rate Growth (% HoH) Sales Operating profit Net income FD WA EPS Sales breakdown (US$ mn)* Feature phone Smartphone Total Sales breakdown (%)* Feature phone Smartphone Total 1H2010A 3,229 (3,139) 90 (236) (146) 15 (131) 2 (14) (143) (0.02) 7,136 2.8% (4.5%) (4.0%) N.A. (20.3%) 539.8% (349.0%) (346.5%) 2,412 777 3,189 75.6% 24.4% 100% 2H2010A 3,397 (3,204) 192 (263) (71) 25 (45) 0 (30) (76) (0.01) 7,136 5.7% (2.1%) (1.3%) N.A. 5.2% N.M. N.M. N.M. 2,230 1,166 3,396 65.7% 34.3% 100% FY2010A 6,626 (6,344) 282 (499) (216) 40 (176) 1 (44) (218) (0.03) 7,136 4.3% (3.3%) (2.7%) N.A. (8.1%) N.M. N.M. N.M. 4,642 1,943 6,585 70.5% 29.5% 100% 1H2011A 2,994 (2,849) 144 (237) (93) 96 3 (1) (20) (18) 0.00 7,384 4.8% (3.1%) 0.1% 629.3% (11.9%) N.M. N.M. N.M. 1,845 1,148 2,994 61.6% 38.4% 100% 2H2011F 3,586 (3,379) 207 (240) (33) 94 61 (1) (31) 30 0.00 7,384 5.8% (0.9%) 1.7% 50.0% 19.8% N.M. N.M. N.M. 2,161 1,425 3,586 60.3% 39.7% 100% FY2011F 6,580 (6,228) 352 (478) (126) 191 65 (1) (51) 12 0.00 7,384 5.3% (1.9%) 1.0% 79.0% (0.7%) N.M. N.M. N.M. 4,006 2,573 6,580 60.9% 39.1% 100% 1H2012F 3,634 (3,402) 232 (236) (4) 94 90 (1) (18) 71 0.01 7,384 6.4% (0.1%) 2.5% 20.0% 1.3% N.M. 136.6% 136.6% 1,881 1,753 3,634 51.8% 48.2% 100% 2H2012F 4,389 (4,090) 299 (241) 58 94 152 (1) (30) 121 0.02 7,384 6.8% 1.3% 3.5% 20.0% 20.8% N.M. 69.7% 69.7% 1,998 2,391 4,389 45.5% 54.5% 100% FY2012F 8,022 (7,492) 531 (478) 53 189 242 (1) (49) 192 0.03 7,389 6.6% 0.7% 3.0% 20.1% 21.9% N.M 1,437.2% 1,436.1% 3,879 4,144 8,022 48.4% 51.6% 100%
2.4x P/Sales 1.9x P/Sales 1.4x P/Sales 0.9x P/Sales 0.4x P/Sales
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Hong Kong: Handsets 30 Aug, 2011
Page 7 of 12
35 30 25 20 15 10 5
0.4x P/B 4.1x P/B 2.3x P/B 7.8x P/B 6.0x P/B
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Hong Kong: Handsets 30 Aug, 2011
Page 8 of 12
Balance Sheet
Year as of Dec (US$ mn) Cash & ST investment Inventories Accounts receivable Others Current assets LT investments Net fixed assets Others Other assets Total assets Accounts payable ST borrowings Others Current liabilities Long-term debts Others Long-term liabilities Total liabilities Paid-in capital Capital surplus Retained earnings Capital adjustment Shareholders' equity 2008 705 843 1,439 134 3,120 4 2,073 331 2,408 5,528 1,435 478 109 2,022 0 50 50 2,072 282 687 2,039 447 3,456 2009 1,201 716 1,413 161 3,491 2 1,823 320 2,145 5,635 1,523 363 81 1,967 0 61 61 2,028 284 721 2,075 528 3,607 2010A 1,356 748 1,648 268 4,020 0 1,723 274 1,997 6,017 1,401 862 104 2,367 0 57 57 2,424 287 776 1,853 677 3,593 2011F 1,731 685 1,448 30 3,893 0 1,768 213 1,981 5,875 1,376 862 160 2,398 0 0 0 2,398 288 776 1,865 547 3,477 2012F 1,858 824 1,765 31 4,478 0 1,819 50 1,869 6,347 1,655 862 160 2,677 0 0 0 2,677 288 776 2,057 548 3,670
Key Ratios
Year to Dec Growth (% YoY) Sales Op profit (13.6) (87.4) (61.2) (83.2) (82.8) (22.2) (139.7) (29.3) (68.1) (67.9) (8.1) 581.9 (68.2) (665.8) (660.0) (0.7) (41.7) 227.0 (105.7) (105.5) 21.9 (142.2) 74.6 1,437.2 1,436.1 2008 2009 2010A 2011F 2012F
Cash Flow
Year to Dec (US$ mn) Net profit Depr & amortization Change in working cap. Others Operating cash flow Capex Change in LT inv. Change in other assets Investment cash flow Change in share capital Net change in debt Other adjustments Financing cash flow Net cash flow Free cash flow 2008 121 235 106 (27) 435 (648) 0 119 (529) 7 (530) 17 (506) (599) (227) 2009 39 254 240 132 665 (122) (3) 55 (69) 10 (116) 0 (106) 489 341 2010A (218) 287 (389) 213 (107) (254) (2) (62) (317) 26 506 9 542 118 (571) 2011F 12 358 238 62 670 (350) 0 53 (297) 2 0 0 2 375 120 2012F 192 352 (177) 58 425 (350) 0 53 (297) 0 0 0 0 127 (122)
EBITDA Net profit EPS Profitability (%) Gross margin Operating margin EBITDA margin Net profit margin ROA ROE Stability Gross debt/equity (%) Net cash (debt)/equity (%) Int. coverage (X) Int. & ST debt cover (X) Cash flow int. cover (X) Cash flow/int. & ST debt (X) Current ratio (X) Quick ratio (X) Net debt (US$ mn) BVPS (US$) Valuation Metrics (x) P/E P/FCF P/B P/EBITDA P/S
13.8 6.6 7.2 0.4 13.7 0.9 1.5 1.1 (227.1) 0.49
10.1 23.2 16.9 0.2 147.6 1.8 1.8 1.4 (838.1) 0.51
24.0 13.7 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 1.7 1.4 (494.0) 0.50
24.8 25.0 8.3 0.1 75.4 0.8 1.6 1.3 (868.5) 0.48
23.5 27.1 28.2 0.3 47.8 0.5 1.7 1.4 (996.0) 0.51
Yuanta
Hong Kong: Handsets 30 Aug, 2011
Adjusted Target Price (C) 6.33 7.90 9.40 9.30 6.40 4.80 5.20
Source: Bloomberg, Yuanta Research Notes: A = price adjusted for stock & cash dividends; B = unadjusted target price; C = target price adjusted for stock & cash dividends. Employee bonus dilution is not reflected in A, B or C.
Current distribution of Yuanta ratings
Yuanta
Hong Kong: Handsets 30 Aug, 2011
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Hong Kong: Handsets 30 Aug, 2011
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