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En 20120404
En 20120404
MARKET COMMENTARY
The markets fell back today as yesterdays move to the upside failed to draw out follow-up buying today. Volumes failed to improve while market breadth narrowed. Foreigners were again inactive although still net buyers. Mixed views on the direction of April CPI coupled with a slowdown in active foreign interest seems to be reinforcing a more cautious stance amongst domestic investors at the moment. Blue chips were weaker across the board with VIC; BVH and MSN leading the way down. The media today is carrying several articles on the proposed Saigon Hanoi Bank (SHB) - Habubank (HBB) merger which SHBs CEO has said has been agreed in principal by the SBV. According to the media, SBV has issued an in-principle agreement for HBB to merger with SHB (HBB name would disappear). However this is just a document expressing SBVs initial opinion and does not represent an official approval. SBV would require both sides to carry out the necessary procedures in line with Circular No. 04/2010/TT-NHNN issued on 11/2/2010 regulating merger and acquisition. Still the likelihood now is the deal will go ahead looks high. Effectively SHB will take over HBB most likely through a share swap. One article suggests a swap ratio of 1 SHB shares for every 1.34 HBB shares but the official swap ratio would have to wait auditors assessments of both balance sheets plus central bank approval. At end-2011, the combined assets of SHB & HBB came to VND112.8 trillion. Seems Ernst & Young has been hired as auditor to check all the numbers. Both sides have apparently signed an MOU which states that Habubank will hold a shareholder meeting for the merger no later than 15/4/2012 while SHB will also hold a similar meeting no later than 30/4/2012. The MOU also apparently gives SHB some safeguards preventing HBB from making any new loans; making any investments; changing employee compensation; offering guarantees or selling assets without approval from SHB. Seems Ernst & Young has been hired as auditor. The next big step is whether or not the SBV gives official approval but once given the deal may go ahead fairly quickly thereafter. Our banking team recently attended the VCB AGM and here are their notes. The most important development perhaps was that the proposal by VCB to list all its shares has been approved by the government and SBV as we expected. Up to now, only the non-state owned shares of VCB have been registered and listed on HOSE. Currently VCB has 2,317,417,076 shares outstanding of which 1,787,023,116 shares are state owned, accounted for 77.11% of the total. So at todays share price of VND28,900 this would increase the market capitalisation to VND66,973,353,496,400 (US$3.19 billion). Once the paperwork is done we expect the additional shares will be listed in about 30 - 60 days or so. Of course this wont affect the free float of the stock at all. Then VCB expects FY2012 profit before tax will come to VND6,550 billion (+15% y/y). VCB assumes their loan book will grow by 17% this year based on deposit growth of 18%. The bank hopes to expand their network to 461 branches and sub-branches (+21% y/y). They also target CAR of 12% (compared to 11.2% in FY2011) which tells us they intend to raise more capital and forecast NPLs of 2.8% or less (actual NPLs in FY2011 came to 2.03%). The bank stated they will issue US$1 billion international bonds tentatively in FY2012 or an appropriate time, with maximum tenor of 10 years. Similarly to CTG before it the bank is looking overseas to tap new capital. Given its size this issuance could be used to boost Tier 2 capital. Given that so far amongst listed Vietnamese companies only VIC has successfully raised US$ debt overseas the likely yield is hard to gauge. Then we understand that CTG is struggling to get interest for its own bond offering. That said we feel VCB is a better quality name although country risk and perception are issues that will have to be overcome. While the drop in the Vietnams five year credit default swap contract by 124 bps to 285 YTD may also be supportive from a timing point of view. The current sovereign bond issuances have a current market yield between 4.37-5.36% and 4-8 years to maturity. HSC roughly estimates that VCB might need to offer up to a 7-9% yield. The AGM also approved the proposal to establish three new subsidiaries: VCB Asset Management Company, VCB Remittance Company, and VCB Consumer Finance Company. The bank hopes to manage their loans and collaterals more efficiently, standardize international remittance operations and gain more market share in retail banking. In FY2012, HSC forecasts VCB will expand their loan book and interest earnings asset by 17% y/y and NIMs will increase further to 4.1% in FY2012 from 4.0% in FY2011. We assume operating income (mainly driven by net interest income) will grow by 23.5% to VND18,366 billion. Then on the cost side, we expect cost base will expand 23% y/y for the whole year leading to a virtually unchanged cost to income ratio of 38%. As for provision expenses, we expect total provision costs will increase by 25% y/y to VND4,222 billion in FY2012 compared to FY2011. Based on these assumptions, we forecast the bank will have a pretax profit of VND7,110 billion (+25% y/y) for FY2012.
Content Todays Markets Market Activity Todays OTC Prices Markets at a Glance Todays News
Foreign Activity Foreign Buy (USDmn) Foreign Sell (USDmn) Foreign Net (USDmn) Foreign Turnover (%) 4.87 2.41 2.46 11.58%
Industry Movers (composite) Basic Materials Consumer Goods Consumer Services Financials Health Care Industrials Oil & Gas Technology Telecommunications Utilities
1D chg -1.09% -0.36% -1.26% -1.81% -1.09% -1.29% -0.20% +1.93% +0.00% -1.13%
Weight 5.23% 18.48% 1.20% 57.22% 1.54% 9.69% 1.71% 0.35% 2.41% 2.18%
Head of Research
+848 3823 3299 fiachra.maccana@hsc.com.vn Head Office Level 5 & 6, AB Tower 76 Le Lai St., District 1, HCMC T: (+84 8) 3 823 3299 F: (+84 8) 3 823 3301 Hanoi Office 6 Le Thanh Tong St., Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi T: (+84 4) 3 9334693 F: (+84 8) 3 9334822 http://www.hsc.com.vn HCMS <GO> Please read the important disclaimer at the end of the document. Page 1
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HNX
Top 5 losers % Ticker 6.67 SDH 6.52 CTV 6.38 TAS 6.38 bTH 5.66 lDP Price 6.7 5.4 5.4 6.8 26 Chg -0.50 -0.40 -0.40 -0.50 -1.90 % -6.94 -6.90 -6.90 -6.85 -6.81
* The ex-right date Top 5 Active (by Volume) Ticker SAM REE Mbb IJC SbS Volume 2,986,790 2,547,650 2,466,650 2,120,340 2,050,480
** New listed Top 5 Active (by Value) USDMln 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 % of Total 6.1 6.0 4.9 3.9 3.9
* The ex-right date Top 5 Active (by Volume) Ticker Hbb SHN VND PVX klS Volume 15,035,500 10,939,300 5,353,400 4,216,600 3,664,900
** New listed Top 5 Active (by Value) USDMln 5.2 2.9 2.2 2.1 1.6 % of Total 17.9 10.0 7.6 7.3 5.4
% of Total Ticker 6.1 REE 5.2 Mbb 5.0 SSI 4.3 PVF 4.2 IJC
% of Total Ticker 19.9 Hbb 14.5 VND 7.1 PVX 5.6 klS 4.9 PVS
* The ex-right date Top 5 Active by Foreigners (bUY) Ticker STb DPM IJC HPG HAG Value 9,533,770 7,213,348 6,758,700 6,690,364 6,015,320
** New listed Top 5 Active by Foreigners (SEll) Value 19,104,120 5,021,746 4,050,210 3,967,248 3,377,998 ** New listed % 81.86% 30.66% 53.05% 32.42% 14.19%
** New listed
Top 5 Active by Foreigners (bUY) Top 5 Active by Foreigners (SEll) Ticker PVS SHN klS HUT TH1 Value 18,650,120 960,200 931,600 853,300 729,250 % Ticker 57.05% PVS 2.96% SHb 2.13% AVS 16.58% PVI 99.68% PVA Value 2,636,800 545,000 303,490 218,310 158,400 ** New listed % 8.07% 2.64% 4.45% 29.08% 1.95%
% Ticker 76.25% VIC 58.96% HAG 28.39% kDC 75.72% DPM 36.73% IJC
39.1 6.7
30.9 20.3
-5.4
5.5
34.2
HoSE
Hastc
3-Apr-12
12-Mar-12
13-Mar-12
14-Mar-12
15-Mar-12
16-Mar-12
19-Mar-12
20-Mar-12
21-Mar-12
22-Mar-12
23-Mar-12
26-Mar-12
27-Mar-12
28-Mar-12
29-Mar-12
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30-Mar-12
2-Mar-12
5-Mar-12
6-Mar-12
7-Mar-12
8-Mar-12
9-Mar-12
4-Apr-12
HNX
Block deals (put-through) Ticker Volume (shares) 92 80 40 99 66 107 50 40 50 19 50 10 17 50 40 20 15 22 3,497,698 Value (VND1,000) 1,316 728 692 663 554 503 440 412 325 315 275 241 201 200 192 186 69 62 45,807,265 6.99%
6,553,200 GBS 5,555,600 CVN 3,985,500 VBC 3,846,500 CTC 3,078,000 TAS 3,017,300 LCS 1,875,000 DLR 1,416,000 VTL 1,336,000 HBS 1,002,960 MAX 972,350 KTT 927,000 VSP 735,000 LAS 680,000 VND 450,000 PXA 324,000 CMS 280,750 SIC 275,638 PVX 194,000 ACB 135,000 KLS 36,639,798 5.62%
13,541,420 PVC 8,954,400 SCJ 8,135,740 PVI 2,774,365 TPP 2,538,000 SD2 2,164,800 HPC 1,852,500 VE9 1,478,100 TV4 1,203,590 HNM 1,030,620 PLC 874,000 DCS 370,130 SGC 339,020 VCG 209,000 TIG 94,080 SDD 80,800 ICG 72,000 BCC 60,426 GGG 25,445 Total
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Ticker
Trading price
TDH
20,000
VTEC
17,300
HAL
37,000
FPTOL
68,000
VIETJET ALC
9,000 7,500
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Top 40 stocks by market capitalisation FY2011 365,922,150 42,931,486 3,505 FY2012 (HSC forecasts) 420,161,383 49,785,258 3,946 y/y 14.8% 16.0% 12.6%
# of stocks in index 302 395 Market Cap (USDmn) 27,746.18 4,917.12 Weighted estimated P/E 2011 9.0 5.1 Sales Weighted P/B FY2011 1.9 1.0 Net profit EPS *
* Weighted by market cap
HOSE - 3MO
USD 250 600
HNX - 3MO
USD 50 100
USD 200
550
USD 40
80
USD 30
60
USD 20
40
350
USD 10
20
USD -
300
USD 01-Feb 06-Feb 09-Feb 14-Feb 17-Feb 22-Feb 27-Feb 01-Mar 06-Mar 09-Mar 14-Mar 19-Mar 22-Mar 27-Mar 30-Mar 04-Jan 09-Jan 12-Jan 17-Jan 20-Jan 04-Apr
02-Feb
08-Feb
14-Feb
20-Feb
24-Feb
01-Mar
07-Mar
13-Mar
19-Mar
23-Mar
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29-Mar
04-Jan
10-Jan
16-Jan
20-Jan
04-Apr
conversion, REE will have a total listed volume of 270 million shares. (www.reecorp. com Apr 03) Vietnam bourse to Cancel listing of Seafood Firm bAS The Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HOSE), Vietnams main bourse, has announced that it will stop the listing of Basa JSC (BAS) from May 03. The exchange made the decision after the seafood firm incurred losses totaling VND40.12 billion ($1.91 million) in the past three consecutive years. As a result, the entire 9.6 million shares of BAS will have the last trading day on May 02. (hsx.vn Apr 03) Red River Holding buys 1M Shares of Steel Maker HSG Red River Holding bought one million shares Hoa Sen Group (HSG) between March 19 and March 30. As a result, the foreign fund raised its holding in the steel maker to 8.13% equal to 8.03 million shares from earlier 7.12%. Red River Holding plans to buy extra one million shares of HSG from April 6 to June 6, expecting to raise its holding to 9.14% equal to 9.03 million shares. (hsx.vn Apr 03) Vietnam Food Producer to buy 4.5M Shares of Parent Company kDC Binh Duong Kinh Do JSC plans to buy 4.5 million shares of Kinh Do Corporation (KDC), the formers parent company, between April 9 and June 9. As a result, the firm expects to hold 4.5 million shares, out of current 133.52 million outstanding shares of KDC. (hsx. vn Apr 03)
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Current Outstanding share 9,139,864 11,764,907 10,000,000 11,000,000 11,999,930 12,779,288 211,200,000 64,584,413 65,605,250 11,440,600 39,736,202 22,829,996 10,000,000 22,500,000 9,600,000 15,371,192 30,000,000 72,267,000 16,800,000 18,531,620 66,000,000 8,261,820 75,500,000 34,876,372 8,249,998 86,500,000 32,993,550 59,285,600 8,800,000 680,471,434 19,336,371 8,000,000 8,799,927 8,797,240 25,000,000 14,958,733 12,000,000 75,081,000 13,103,830 10,000,000 13,000,000 67,242,694 8,000,000 9,579,338 13,221,234 20,312,038 9,915,069 13,752,368 26,771,660
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42,249,295 31,770,000 1,685,810,134 15,000,000 9,046,425 10,654,984 12,500,000 9,913,692 27,223,647 12,244,495 15,061,213 14,999,908 65,166,299 15,000,000 129,997,818 35,210,708 17,503,796 377,644,200 43,000,000 23,189,679 46,153,865 16,036,368 8,450,000 10,000,000 45,269,630 8,151,820 20,000,000 16,000,000 9,900,000 1,056,006,875 29,300,000 23,401,986 11,265,000 20,227,308 13,200,000 7,222,630 216,087,476 10,372,365 11,524,588 8,819,311 100,000,000 9,830,000 43,503,000 467,280,590 17,399,991 24,280,759 7,800,000 11,116,169 19,288,166 99,619,921
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23,399,413 40,499,948 10,000,000 34,457,793 44,225,385 21,000,000 8,000,000 313,618,830 40,000,000 17,260,970 98,770,778 9,885,590 197,952,000 24,949,200 8,000,000 9,917,420 10,000,000 9,999,944 64,737,753 18,500,000 12,807,000 38,000,000 29,140,992 274,194,525 15,214,500 341,989,092 68,646,328 11,610,399 24,200,000 20,000,000 289,760,512 132,025,625 43,900,000 13,168,439 40,551,296 32,450,591 15,442,559 10,700,000 11,690,000 24,190,000 26,800,000 8,900,000 14,728,019 8,157,500 56,249,956 8,568,000 8,283,561 19,996,375 19,985,506 9,000,000
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8,050,000 50,000,000 730,000,000 52,050,000 10,321,162 12,092,161 10,889,031 13,555,394 9,975,781 70,000,000 515,272,269 11,999,995 8,000,000 17,860,600 8,100,000 22,877,912 29,900,000 8,319,500 8,256,161 36,000,000 61,500,000 10,656,800 60,500,000 300,000,000 12,284,860 26,628,933 11,550,000 8,231,998 130,200,000 69,053,120 34,443,346 42,900,000 70,974,218 78,975,047 18,003,273 11,387,383 8,400,000 9,818,016 59,998,433 186,317,161 323,154,614 12,216,733 12,000,646 9,500,000 99,083,210 209,740,215 600,000,000 232,600,000 30,000,000 82,500,412
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15,000,000 37,518,001 20,000,000 121,518,139 11,500,000 11,500,000 239,642,052 68,319,965 130,798,432 9,660,230 49,800,070 8,000,000 129,510,000 131,252,330 13,622,357 8,477,640 17,406,580 10,269,408 8,289,981 74,001,604 26,151,493 35,879,150 99,041,940 8,060,000 29,511,643 13,770,000 16,200,000 7,312,926 14,791,387 349,611,742 11,896,902 1,073,967,664 8,351,857 8,000,000 24,975,507 8,700,000 20,000,000 18,980,200 63,500,000 20,943,893 44,637,036 40,793,130 100,000,000 37,695,010 8,500,000 8,000,000 23,274,305 9,569,900 24,000,000 17,650,000
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53,955,884 70,000,000 18,275,870 28,040,536 8,000,000 19,250,000 8,500,000 21,268,956 12,337,664 29,600,000 27,548,360 11,390,948 8,012,915 31,249,518 14,999,998 20,009,765 27,892,014 34,839,350 8,000,000 2,317,417,076 26,579,135 9,007,500 33,976,121 12,672,543 45,952,523 25,000,000 549,383,305 25,522,767 59,323,395 30,000,000 8,000,000 10,400,000 8,141,196 20,000,000 62,122,141 13,000,000 8,023,071 10,337,276 9,000,000 556,238,325 29,999,997 140,000,000 27,714,816 8,000,000 14,504,762 23,727,902 11,044,000 202,241,246 13,200,000 58,999,337
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Current Outstanding share 9,900,000 937,696,500 1,000,000 8,300,000 4,920,398 1,500,000 2,739,743 12,000,000 2,115,750 13,528,900 26,400,000 3,811,500 39,000,000 2,592,740 36,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 95,661,397 1,126,474 3,000,000 4,500,000 2,600,000 972,013 5,443,200 5,000,000 3,800,000 3,000,000 1,100,000 3,500,000 109,056,192 9,750,948 72,218,737 3,012,040 2,400,000 5,000,000 1,691,045 4,600,000 4,213,789 1,036,700 2,000,000 4,050,000 4,561,050 7,426,000 2,500,000 4,081,450 5,000,000 6,105,759 9,088,000 1,714,330
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8,799,926 4,000,000 6,261,590 78,068,000 2,000,000 3,250,000 7,794,100 1,956,800 3,639,995 1,004,974 4,920,200 1,498,680 43,611,100 2,948,500 2,520,000 4,900,500 33,499,699 2,628,042 6,282,602 5,000,000 2,905,842 1,800,000 4,500,000 2,199,697 2,411,510 3,415,127 20,000,000 2,237,280 1,000,000 2,000,000 7,874,972 3,449,850 9,938,784 1,860,000 12,303,100 15,000,000 3,054,500 17,000,000 13,500,000 8,480,000 9,177,171 9,216,696 5,314,448 4,000,000 3,123,000 405,000,000 1,428,300 2,231,058 32,999,980 3,670,483
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2,016,385 2,200,000 9,319,879 1,000,000 6,000,000 8,212,500 13,255,400 2,748,270 14,999,989 11,955,675 999,905 7,142,396 12,500,000 69,228,600 3,857,200 39,693,560 4,800,000 1,565,250 1,488,440 1,800,000 5,250,000 1,759,180 34,997,600 7,234,212 20,000,000 32,600,000 3,528,500 4,052,732 2,000,000 5,400,000 16,100,000 3,001,699 6,270,000 9,500,000 4,692,300 202,500,000 9,846,562 10,737,500 2,996,010 3,900,000 2,875,000 2,880,000 5,400,000 3,265,155 3,500,000 3,980,000 7,015,000 5,741,817 1,095,900 1,350,000
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6,000,000 3,399,959 1,890,000 11,581,900 5,150,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 3,880,000 14,960,000 5,499,811 7,200,000 4,638,300 3,500,000 2,220,000 4,103,929 15,083,952 7,000,000 3,834,050 5,455,721 3,780,000 3,099,939 1,123,592 3,160,000 7,017,130 14,849,576 12,000,000 12,865,500 9,520,000 7,999,446 1,200,000 8,835,000 1,474,845 3,000,000 5,000,000 2,170,000 2,959,314 6,913,133 43,337,996 297,669,552 15,000,000 100,000,000 5,000,000 24,000,000 18,870,000 23,000,000 15,000,000 50,000,000 38,000,000 9,241,801 10,829,977
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18,214,000 30,000,000 1,200,000 3,074,260 50,199,090 6,475,394 7,201,772 19,286,346 2,000,000 7,776,200 2,335,500 15,000,000 1,178,890 4,800,000 35,000,000 59,841,300 44,987,457 4,200,000 5,568,000 36,868,800 21,846,000 35,000,000 18,000,000 27,719,850 319,740,536 50,000,000 52,356,713 297,802,094 30,000,000 250,000,000 15,086,160 1,500,000 4,249,901 18,383,109 1,350,000 1,200,000 4,499,553 5,120,000 5,000,000 1,572,833 2,490,100 2,000,000 6,000,000 2,940,000 11,155,532 9,998,960 4,545,777 1,286,984 1,887,600 9,758,000
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9,000,000 100,000,000 5,000,000 12,000,000 15,999,356 10,300,000 9,000,000 17,509,824 9,000,000 2,800,000 29,250,000 13,103,426 11,000,000 2,609,648 16,007,335 1,751,095 6,499,997 20,539,500 4,343,700 1,518,218 11,114,472 2,436,300 21,060,000 20,000,000 4,500,000 12,500,000 8,000,000 5,000,000 2,894,150 7,147,580 4,037,000 1,766,300 481,083,361 3,709,550 32,453,360 99,845,000 7,999,994 3,500,000 4,468,905 7,991,797 5,000,000 4,500,000 22,500,000 2,765,787 4,608,360 12,307,790 100,000,000 2,000,000 8,500,000 4,981,190
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4,947,477 2,500,000 5,381,030 15,000,000 6,640,800 8,894,690 3,000,000 13,500,000 8,121,256 13,900,000 1,510,280 12,998,694 14,999,229 3,197,000 16,000,000 5,702,940 12,039,616 11,424,570 9,100,000 55,000,000 16,500,000 6,000,000 9,756,716 24,379,946 11,080,000 6,989,800 8,000,000 6,000,000 13,461,325 2,015,985 4,000,000 3,372,740 2,936,140 4,800,000 5,940,528 4,439,000 3,380,986 5,040,346 15,280,790 7,000,000 9,484,468 8,399,889 5,818,000 10,000,000 1,700,000 1,132,000 2,999,989 2,900,000 7,204,200 7,864,504
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7,933,800 5,000,000 8,000,000 7,750,000 11,695,200 6,000,000 300,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 35,240,000 52,999,251 11,007,183 3,128,840 34,979,987 2,931,280 2,158,880 1,319,710 7,200,088 15,000,000 8,053,022 36,003,310 6,000,000 9,000,000 1,561,244 34,132,800 9,900,000 30,000,000 13,000,000 1,080,000 6,500,000 9,600,000 7,837,300 99,955,079 5,584,500 100,827,658 5,416,600 32,915,803 4,529,143 1,798,820 2,000,205 15,600,000 4,049,006 2,500,000 50,300,000 19,996,480 4,811,610
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Global Disclaimer
Copyright 2008 Ho Chi Minh Securities Corporation (HSC). All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and is being issued by HSC or one of its affiliates for distribution in Viet Nam and overseas. The information herein is believed by HSC to be reliable and is based on public sources believed to be reliable. With the exception of information about HSC, HSC makes no representation about the accuracy of such information. Opinions, estimates and projection expressed in this report represent the current views of the author at the date of publication only. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of HSC and are subject to change without notice. HSC has no obligation to update, amend or in any way modify this report or otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any of the subject matter or opinion, projection or estimate contained within it changes or becomes inaccurate. The information herein was obtained from various sources which we believe to be reliable but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Prices and availability of financial instruments are also subject to change without notice. This published research may be considered by HSC when buying or selling proprietary positions or positions held by funds under its management. HSC may trade for its own account as a result of short term trading suggestions from analysts and may also engage in securities transactions in a manner inconsistent with this report and opinions expressed therein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed in this report constitutes an offer, nor an invitation to make an offer, to buy or to sell any securities or any option, futures or other derivative instruments in any jurisdiction. Nor should it be construed as an advertisement for any financial instruments. Officers of HSC may have a financial interest in securities mentioned in this report or in related instruments. This research report is prepared for general circulation and for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who may receive or read this report. Investors should note that the prices of securities fluctuate and may rise and fall. Past performance, if any, is no guide to the future. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own financial decisions based on their independent financial advisors as they believe necessary and based on their particular financial situation and investment objectives. This report may not be copied, reproduced, published or redistributed by any person for any purpose without the express permission of HSC in writing. Please cite sources when quoting.
HEAD OFFICE Level 5 & 6, AB Tower 76 Le Lai, District 1, HCMC T : (+84 8) 3 823 3299 F : (+84 8) 3 823 3301 HANOI OFFICE 6 Le Thanh Tong Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi T : (+84 4) 3 933 4693 F : (+84 4) 3 933 4822 infor@hsc.com.vn www.hsc.com.vn HCMS <GO>
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