Stat Documentary EC - AIT - Final Draft

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Kevin Grim

STA 2023
Arnold
5/3/07
Documentary Extra Credit

“An Inconvenient Truth”

The movie opens with Al Gore voice, and a river slowly flowing behind him. Al
Gore is describing the nature that is around him, all the sounds, the sights, the smells,
even the sensations to touch. Gore describes these feelings and sights as a “gear shift,”
inside where you sit back and say “Oh, yeah I forgot about this.” Gore then shows a
picture of one the first known photographs taken of earth from space. The movie then
cuts through some scenes of Gore presenting his slide show and walking into a large
auditorium, introducing himself “Hi, I’m Al Gore, I used to be the next President of the
United States of America.” The movie next shows clips of the hurricane Katrina and its
effects on New Orleans. “Earth Rise” is presented and explained as the picture that
started the environmental movement 18 months later. The next picture Gore shows is the
most commonly published photograph in all of history. This picture depicts the full earth
taken on the last Apollo mission. Gore then presents a short clip of the earth’s rotation
comprised into one day, explaining the wonder of it. Gore explains that the scientific
establishment dictates the way science is presented. Gore uses the example his grade
school teacher telling the class that the continents in fact never fit together! While in fact,
today we know this to be true. Gore presents the quote by Mark Twain “What gets us into
trouble is not what we don’t know…it’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.” Gore
uses this to explain some people’s feelings towards global warming being completely
unaccredited to humans. This is because they feel that we a so small in the grand scheme
of things that we could never have a lasting affect on something as big as the Earth.

Gore states though he will not go into the basic science of global warming but
does none the less recap the basics idea behind global warming using several computer
generated and animated examples. Gore next introduces the second teacher he mentioned,
the one he considered to be a hero of his, Roger Revelle. Roger Revelle showed Gore as
well as his college class, the research he had been performing and revealed a red line
sharply rising and falling in a continuous trend going up from its initial start. It was this
picture, Gore explains, that first got him involved in the subject of global warming. Gore,
since this moment has tried to use whatever power he has to try and give this issue
attention, the attention it deserves. Gore states that when he went to congress he formed
some of the first hearings on global warming, in which he asked his professor to come
speak. Gore had thought this would help congress see the importance behind global
warming and the need to stop it. In the end congress did not share this idea with Gore;
they simply took it as pure speculation. Gores along with others have tried time and time
again to make a lasting affect on the American people. Gore has written a book on the
subject, passed a carbon tax, went to Kyoto to approve a treaty that is very controversial
in the U.S. in order to help solve the problem of global warming. Gore shows a picture of
Mount Kilimanjaro in 1970 and then shows another picture of the same mountain in
2000. The pictures greatly differ in the amount of show on the mountain. Gore states that
within the decade there will be NO more snows on Kilimanjaro. Gore also shows clips of
Glacier Park and how the glacial are actually continuously retreating inward, which he
than cuts to a scene where a glacier is cracking off and falling into the ocean, saying this
is what people are seeing everyday at this park! Gore continues to show places that once
used to be heavily covered in snow now just barely even white, places where giant
glaciers used to reside now a barren sea of water.

One of the most interesting points Gore speaks about is the core drilling his friend
Lawny Thompson does. Gore explains that with these drills they dig down into the ice
and see how much CO2 was in the atmosphere the year that snow fell they can also
measure isotopes of the oxygen thus enabling them to tell what the temperature was at
that time. A man shows Gore in Antarctica ice that they had drilled out and pointed at a
specific part of it and told Gore “this is when Congress passed the clean air act,” this
difference being able to be seen with the naked eye. Gore makes the comparison to this
drilled ice with the rings of a tree, though instead of telling the tale of a single tree, this
ice tells the story of the entire planet! Using these mountain glaciers, these scientists can
go back a thousand years and predict what the temperature was at the time. In doing so,
these scientists have created a thermometer from these ratings ranging through out the
years (the graph shown shows the year 1000 leading up to the year 2000). This
thermometer shows several key aspects including what many critics call the medieval
warming period saying these events are cyclical. Gore points out this cyclical warming
period to be a relatively small red blotch compared to the large red peaks towards the end
of the 1900s (if it were a cycle it would be a huge increase from the last warming period).
This thermometer shows, as of recently, the temperature is increasing exponentially fast.
Gore next shows a giant time-plot that illustrates the CO2 and temperature changes
during the last 650,000 years. Gore proceeds to point out all the ice ages ranging back the
650,000 years (7 ice ages in total). CO2 never exceeds 300 parts per million, as Gore
points out. Gore then shows the temperature change over the last 650,000 years, using his
old classmate’s question of “did they ever fit together?” to introduce the fact that they did
in fact. Gore next explains that their relationship is very complicated, but one relationship
being more powerful than all others, when there is more CO2, the temperature increases!
Gore, using a miniature cherry picker, emphasizes his point of how high CO2 is today or
how high it will be in fifty years. The CO2 rises off the chart and sky rockets straight up,
breaking out of the gradual increase it had previously had to a pure dramatic increase;
being much higher than the normal cycle, almost even frighteningly high. Gore explains
that this though does not seem to faze the critics as he paraphrases them as saying “Well,
what’s wrong with that?” Gore contrasts that if just being at the bottom of the chart is
equivalent to a mile of ice over hour heads, being well above the chart might mean dire
consequences!

Gore states the issue of global warming has expanded past being just a political
issue, and that it has in fact grown into an ethical issue, which begs the question, “Will
we allow this to happen?” The movie then flashes back to when Gore’s child was hit by a
car. Gore explains this as almost a life changing event, one that which made him ask what
he wants to do on this earth. The movie continues this with more internal thoughts from
Gore coming to realize that what we take for granted my not be there for our future
children. Gore presents the fact that the ten hottest years on record worldwide have
happened with the last 14 years, the hottest being 2005. This temperature increase also is
taking place in the ocean; Gore displays the natural range of variability for the
temperature in the ocean, and then shows what the temperature actually is right now in
the ocean being significantly higher. Gore continues that with an increase in temperature
there is also an increase in stronger storms. There have been record high storm rates
everywhere, including a record high number of tornadoes in the U.S. As well as a record
high amount of typhoons in Japan (beating the old record of seven typhoons by three), the
oddest of these storms being the first ever hurricane in the South Atlantic (previously
thought to be impossible)! Gore than describes Katrina, and how when it hit Florida it
was only a category one (to most South Floridians this means throw a hurricane party and
break out the surf board), but as it crossed over the warm water in the Gulf of Mexico it
got stronger (Gore showing a quick graph depicting that when water temperature
increases so does wind velocity and the moisture content of a hurricane). Thus when it
finally hit New Orleans, it hit with immense force and unprecedented power, breaking the
levies and plunging this once lively city into chaos. Gore declares there were warnings of
how bad this storm truly was and that it could potentially break the levies as it did. Gore
states that it is up to the people to decide how to react to these warnings. After a quote
from Winston Churchill the movie flashes back to the famous elections and the notorious
recount Florida initiated.

Using a long bar graph, Gore explains that global warming also causes more
precipitation single storm events, and that insurance companies have noticed this in that
the recovering loses for insurance companies is going up. With another bar graph, Gore
shows that in Europe is also experiencing the same cataclysmic nature phenomena that
we are. Gore compares these recent natural storms as a nature hike through the book of
Revelations. Gore also continues in stating that not only goes global warming cause an
increase in flooding but also causes an increase in drought. Gore explains that this is
because global warming actually relocates the precipitation. This is because evaporation
by the sun is increased ten-fold, sucking water right out of the soil. While at the same
time the increased evaporation has also made Lake Chad, once one of the world’s largest
lakes, into a long circular river. The Gore then reminisces back to Gore as a child on the
farm, stating the climate has been relatively the same since the last ice age 11,000 years
ago. Gore regrets that as of recently, the climate has been changing, very quickly at that.
It is here where Gore introduces the two canaries in the coal mine, the Artic Ocean/North
Pole and Greenland being the first, with Antarctica being the second. Both the Artic
Ocean and Greenland are the two regions that are experiencing faster impacts from global
warming. Gore next shows some clips of some places, including the “Drunken Trees”
that rely on the perma-frost as a form of foundation. Gore also makes mention that the
Alaskan Pipeline would be very hard to reach now only having less than 75 days possible
in the year to drive on it. Gore continues to explain this melting by speaking about his
experience with the submarines that patrol around the North Pole and occasional rise up
through the ice. The subs however can only rise up in areas where the ice is less than 3 ft,
and so the records they keep are next to flawless. Their records show, starting in 1970, a
steady decline more so than usual. Than in 1970, the thickness of the ice began to sink
rapidly continuing to do so to this day. As of now the level of thickness in the ice has
diminished by 40% in 40 years (an enormous 10% decrease in thickness per decade).
Gore next uses an illustration to show the mirror effect the sun’s rays actually have on the
ice. When the sun’s rays melt through the ice and begin to hit the ocean, more than 90%
of the ray’s heat is absorbed, heating the ocean and causing the rest of the ice in the ocean
to met even faster (somewhat like a boiling effect). Gore next turns to the issue that with
the ice melting animals like the polar bears will begin to die off. As of recently there have
been reports of Polar Bears actually drowning while in search of any form of ice or land
to rest on. Here Gore goes very deep in detail into the issue of ocean currents comparing
it to an engine. Gore implies that while people say that a one degree increase in
temperature is nothing, in the North Pole that one degree escalates to a twelve degree
increase! Gore next presents the “ocean conveyer” explaining it in detail as the warm and
cold currents running along together in a cycle. The salt being the key component to this
cycle keeping the cool water weighted down so that the warm water can continue to pull
the cooler water. At the end of the last Ice Age, as Gores explains, what is today the
remnants of the Great Lakes used to be a giant glacier that melted into a pool of fresh
water. This pool, finally when the ice dam on the east corner broke, all flooded out into
the ocean. This fresh water then mixed with the salinity of the ocean diluting it, making
the water fresher and lighter essentially stopping the ocean conveyer! This led Europe to
go into yet another Ice Age.

Gore points out that even the seasons are shifting, leading to the death of innocent
animals and the rise of pestilence and disease. Gore then moves on to the second canary
in the coal mine, Antarctica. Gore explains that ice selves the size of Rhode Island have
been breaking off for the last fifteen years, causing the land based ice to fall into the
ocean and thus melt. Gore gives the example of the water based ice being a single ice
cube in a glass of water, when it melts it does nothing. As opposed to a glass of water
with ice cubes stacked from the bottom up, when it melts the glass over flows. Antarctica
though unstable however is more stable than Greenland is at this point, if melted would
increase sea level world wide by almost 20 feet! Gore shows a picture where he uses
people for scale to compare the size of a free running river of melting ice above
Greenland! It is here where the most shocking part of the documentary (in my opinion) is
revealed. Gore assures that if Greenland or half of both Greenland and Antarctica were to
break up and melt the consequences would be extreme. Gore then shows several clips of
land masses including Florida, and what this increased sea level change would do to these
places. Half of Florida is underwater (I live in Ft. Lauderdale so I pretty much out of
luck, maybe I’ll move to Gainesville…), along with many other cities and countries. Gore
considers there to be three main factors that are causing this collision between our
civilization and the very earth we live on. The first of these factors contributing to this
collision is population, with the expected population of earth in 2050 being a staggering
9.1 billion people. This exponential increase will increase the strain on food and water
supply, natural resources, and an increase poverty and disease in poorer countries. The
second of these factors is new technology used for the wrong reasons; for example,
weapons now-a-days consist of the simple pressing of a button to murder a thousand
people. New technology also leads to the manipulation of nature, something in which the
cycle is so perfectly set up the slightest change may set everything off.
As it stands now the United States has the largest carbon emission than any other
country in the world at 5.60 per person and 5.47 billion metric tons per country/region.
Gore using a frog in a boiling pot of water as an example, explains that we as a people
must become aware of this danger now! Gore uses the past example of tobacco
companies and the measures they took to hide or manipulate the truth, and explains that
this is exactly what is happening now. These scientists who said years ago, when global
warming was not a hot issue, that global warming was real as of recently have said it is a
swindle. This was based on the study of 928 scientific articles (10%). Gore states people
are simply trying not to realize this inconvenient truth. Gore reads out a memo leaked
from the few who want to call global warming a lie. This memo stated that their objective
is to reposition global warming as theory rather than fact! As of recently, another sample
was taken this time of 636 articles where 53% expressed their doubt of the existence of
global warming. There have been reports of scientists who have been treated differently
just because they know the truth about global warming, that they know it in fact does not
just exist but is happening. Gore brings up an example of a man named Philip Cooney
who before being hired by the President to Chief of Staff for the Environmental Office,
had worked for American Petroleum Institute and was a lobbyist in charge of global
warming disinformation. Upon resignation, Cooney then got a job working for Exxon
Mobil; bring up the quote “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his
salary depends upon his not understanding it.” Gore next names off all the places he has
given this slide show. Using another time plot Gore shows that the U.S. is actually way
behind in fuel economy being, saying a U.S. car could not be sold in Japan because it is
considered to be inefficient. Gore introduces another bar graph depicting the market
capitalization for American cars is way below that of Toyota and Honda (more fuel
efficient cars). Gore shows another colored time plot showing the current and expected
carbon emissions from 1970 to 2050. Gore shows with the plot that by changing out
lifestyle and becoming more efficient our predicted carbon emission will drop from 2.6 to
0.9! Gore lists all the nations that have signed the Kyoto Treaty, the U.S. and Australia
being the only major countries that have not. Yet, cities are beginning to show support for
the Kyoto Treaty, hoping that maybe one day the government will be obliged to sign.

Gore next says that we can make a difference and gives examples to all the times
we have overtime difficult times and crisis. Gore recalls when the hole in the ozone layer
was first seen and how the U.S. successfully fazed out the harmful chemicals that were
causing this, something that was considered to be impossible. Gore retracts back to the
single video clip of the earth rotating in space. Gore shows another picture depicting our
earth as a small dot and how fragile this planet really is. The movie closes with the same
river it began with; Gore’s voice in the background saying basically it is up to us to
preserve our planet for future generations, our children and our children’s children. The
movie ends with Melissa Etheridge’s “I Need to Wake-Up” (great song) playing in the
background. I was interested more about this and looked at the special features in the
DVD. I clicked on the option “Update with Al Gore,” in which Al Gore talks about what
he has stated in the movie in some instances are starting to show more warning signs.
Gore also corrects a misunderstanding many people had in the movie; Gore did not state
global warming made more hurricanes, Gore did state though that global warming makes
them stronger! Gore goes through each of the issues such as glacier quakes and such and
explains how the situation stands. Gore states that we already have started to change and
improve the world around us but warns the warning signs are still present and we must
continue with our efforts to lower CO2 emissions.

Gore’s documentary “An Inconvenient Truth,” really puts the world we live in
into context. Gore also did a great job in following the area principle rule perfectly. I
could not find a single graph, going back through the movie (I watched it four times from
start to finish), that did not follow this rule. All Gore’s graphs were flat (plain and simple)
and easy to understand and see. The graphs were at no time 3-D, oddly colored (in a
manner where data maybe confused because of colors being very similar in appearance),
were always proportional, equally distributed, and properly labeled. Gore did though
neglect to mention the margin of error involved in these graphs, but if you watch the film
the most complicated graph he uses is a time plot. Gore, through out the movie, used
mainly between two types of graphs, bar graphs and time plots, being two of the most
common and easily understood graphs. Gore did this in order to allow a wider range of
people to understand this information. Before I took Statistics, I can honestly say I had no
idea what a histogram was or even how to read it, same with a scatter-plot. If I had ever
encountered a scatter-plot previous to Statistics I probably would have just connected all
the dots assuming that is what I was supposed to do. Once or twice in the movie a
histogram would have been a better choice over the extended bar charts he used, but for
the sake of simplicity Gore decided not to make the people worry so much about reading
the graphs. The sole reason for this was that he was trying to get them to focus more on
the issue of global warming, rather than trying to comprehend the graph itself and what it
actually means. The data Gore uses appears to be well sourced and definitely plausible
(even though the numbers are shocking and even scary at times).

Gore uses a huge amount of quantitative data in this movie to the point where
some might think to movie is too “numbery” (a word my girlfriend made up when telling
me she did not want to watch the movie with me anymore). Personally though I think
Gore presents the quantitative information in a way that really makes you realize what we
are doing to our planet. Gore also organizes and limits his number usage to a minimum. I
know this because I have seen other documentaries on nature and such and all they seem
to talk about is numbers, to the point where you forget what the documentary is even
about. Gore also used a wide variety of units to label the CO2 emissions and everything
else on his chart. The third time I watched the movie; I did so on my computer so that I
could pause the movie and thus take a better look at the graphs. On both axis, Gore
correctly labels each unit and in parenthesis describes its association (usually using the
metric system). There is a possibility of lurking variables in some of the data collected,
but are not addressed specifically as it could jeopardize Gore’s whole argument. In my
Ethics class we had to watch this movie called “The Great Global Warming Swindle”
(statistically and contextually a joke when compared to “An Inconvenient Truth”), the
movie did not follow area principle what-so-ever (it literally violated every rule of area
principle) and did not source its data at all only interviewing the same three scientists
over and over again (I wonder what gas company they work for). Plus, in “The Great
Global Warming Swindle” there was definitely lurking variables present as the graphs
used were not only 3-D but also similarly colored (as if trying to hide some information
or manipulate the data thus fooling the audience).

One of the major problems I did have with this documentary is when Gore states
that he’s not going to go into the basic science of global warming when in reality he
should. The number one reason people do not know enough about global warming is
because they do not know the basic principles behind it. All many of them know is
(conservative friends of mind especially) “they” (environmentalists or as they call them
“hippies”) want us to stop driving our trucks! When really this is not the case, the point of
decreasing your daily impact is to do things you can afford to do. To make an honest
effort to try and get energy saving light bulbs, to buy a hybrid vehicle if you can, when
you can ride a bike instead of drive. It is these little things that make the biggest
differences. If everyone knew the basics behind the science of global warming, I believe
a lot more would be getting done. People, once knowing the basics, are more inclined to
go out and research global warming; now wanting to know more about the subject!
Though I have to admit I was presently surprised with Gore’s presentation of Matt
Groening’s cartoon skit “Global Warming: or None Like It Hot!” from the “Futurama”
series, very humorous (big fan of any and all types political humor).

Another issue I did have was when Gore stated that the relationship between CO2
and temperature was complicated; I just wish once again he had gone into more detail.
Once again though I realize he was trying to keep this documentary in layman’s terms in
order for it to be viewed by a much wider range of people (if it was in science jargon it
most likely would not have won nearly as much recognition as it has). I also realize a
documentary can only state so much before it becomes too informative, making it just
plain boring to watch, and even more boring to listen to. I give a lot of credit to this
movie in the sense that it really gets you interested in the topic and makes you want to go
out and learn more about it! This could be the reason Gore neglected to explain
everything in exact detail, maybe he simply did it on purpose hoping that people would
be interested and motivated enough to go learn more about it on their own. I did like that
Gore went into such detail with ocean currents, I love to surf and likewise love the ocean.
I remember in high-school learning about ocean currents and being amazed with how
complex a massive body of water, just simple water, could be. One thing I did wonder
about as Gore was naming all the different places he had given his speech, I found it
shocking that he never gave one in Florida (bad memories maybe…?). Statistically, in my
opinion, this movie and the data presented is as accurate as real world data will allow, at
least according to the sourcing information Gore provided. The data simply makes sense.

In conclusion, I honestly believe that if anyone really looks hard enough you can
find something wrong with everything. This is exactly the reason people are able to so
harshly criticize Gore’s movie of being less than factual. It is my opinion though, that
global warming is a major issue many people have turned a blind eye to only because it I
in fact an inconvenient truth. Many people by nature resist change; anti-global warming
groups use this as a tool to create doubt about global warming just to line their own
pockets. These groups are no better than the tobacco companies years ago (and even
today). They simply wish to create doubt and manipulate the data so that they can make
more money; they are in the business of selling lies and deceit. These anti-global
warming companies will continue to try and produce doubt until either people stop
believing them or it is simply too late. Global warming is becoming a more important
issue by the day, one that we must take seriously and act on now, if not for our own sacks
than for our future generations. Ask yourself, do you really want to be known as the
generation who sat idly by and watched global warming take full effect and did
absolutely nothing?

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