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Result Update

February 13, 2012


Rating matrix
Rating Target Target Period Potential Upside : : : : Hold | 442 12-15 months -7%

Tata Steel (TISCO)


| 475
WHATS CHANGED
FY12E 130936.6 12914.9 2222.7 FY13E 137024.2 16042.2 4943.1

Key Financials
(| Crore) Net Sales EBITDA Adj Net Profit FY10 101757.8 8042.7 -325.5 FY11 117149.8 15995.6 6672.5

PRICE TARGET....................................................................... Changed from | 447 to | 442 EPS (FY12E)......................................................................... Changed from | 46.6 to | 22.9 EPS (FY13E)......................................................................... Changed from | 69.4 to | 50.9 RATING.....................................................................................Changed from BUY to HOLD

Valuation summary
EPS (|) PE (x) Target PE (x) EV/EBITDA(x) P/BV (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) FY10 NA NA NA 11.0 1.8 -8.8 4.7 FY11 69.6 6.8 6.4 5.9 1.2 18.0 11.9 FY12E 22.9 20.6 19.3 7.4 1.1 5.3 8.0 FY13E 50.9 9.3 8.7 5.8 1.0 10.9 9.7

Inventory write-down impacts performance


Tata Steels Q3FY12 numbers were broadly below our expectations, primarily due to the inventory write-down. During the quarter under review, the total operating income stood at | 33103.1 crore (our estimate: | 28194.5 crore) higher by 13.8% YoY and 1.8% QoQ. The EBITDA margin during the quarter under review stood at 5.2% (our estimate 7.5%), which was lower by 660 bps YoY and 330 bps QoQ. There was inventory write-down to the tune of | 741.7 crore, which led to muted margins during the quarter under review. Consequently, the Tata Steel group registered a net loss of | 603 crore in Q3FY12 compared to a net profit of | 1003 crore in Q3FY11 (our estimate: | 133 crore). Operational performance The results of domestic operations broadly came in line with our expectation. For domestic operations, the company posted an underlying EBITDA/tonne of | 16218/tonne against our estimate of | 15592/tonne (Q2FY12 EBITDA/tonne for domestic operations was | 16786/tonne). Tata Steel Europe reported an EBITDA loss of | 781 crore (US$147 million) in Q3FY12. The Q3FY12 loss was mainly due to mark-to-market provisions on stock. The reported EBITDA/tonne was US$ -43.9/tonne. However, adjusting for the inventory write down, the adjusted EBITDA/tonne came in at US$ -1.2/tonne.

Stock data
Market Capitalisation Debt (FY11) Cash (FY11) EV 52 week H/L Equity capital Face value DII Holding (%) FII Holding (%) | 45253 Crore | 60684 Crore | 10893 Crore | 95044 Crore 661/332 | 958.7 Crore | 10 27.7 14.7

Price movement
6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Nifty (L.H.S) Price (R.H.S) 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 Feb-12

Valuation
At the CMP of | 472, the stock is discounting its FY13E EPS by 9.3x and EV/EBITDA by 5.8x. We have a cautious view on overseas operations on account of global macro headwinds. However, on the back of the improvement seen in the domestic demand scenario, we have valued the Indian operations at 6.0x its FY13E EV/EBITDA (from 5.5x earlier) and European and Asian subsidiaries at 4x its FY13E EV/EBITDA and arrived at a target price of | 442 assigning a HOLD rating to the stock.
Exhibit 1: Financial Performance
(| Crore) Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Depreciation Interest Reported PAT Q3FY12 33103.1 1717.3 5.2 1164.0 706.9 -602.7 Q3FY12E 28194.5 2111.2 7.5 1185.2 750.5 133.1 Q3FY11 29089.5 3424.6 11.8 1126.4 743.2 1003.0 Q2FY12 32507.5 2750.0 8.5 1108.8 716.1 212.4 YoY (Chg %) 13.8 -49.9 (660) bps 3.3 -4.9 PL QoQ (Chg %) 1.8 -37.6 (330) bps 5.0 -1.3 PL

Analysts name
Dewang Sanghavi dewang.sanghavi@icicisecurities.com

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Results Analysis

Group performance
The group consolidated turnover at | 33,103 crore (US$6.24 billion) in Q3FY12 improved by 13.8%, compared to Q3FY12. Group deliveries of 5.84 million tonne (MT) in Q3FY12 were marginally lower YoY (5.9 MT in Q3FY11). During the quarter under review, deliveries from Tata Steel India were 1.62 MT (1.64 MT in Q3FY11 and 1.65 MT in Q2FY12) while that from Tata Steel Europe were 3.35 MT (3.39 MT in Q3FY11 and 3.57 MT in Q2FY12). Deliveries from South East Asia operations during the quarter under review stood at 0.66 MT (0.78 MT in Q3FY11 and 0.78 MT in Q2FY12). The reported group EBITDA in Q3FY12 stood at | 1717.3 crore, lower by 49.9% YoY and 37.6% QoQ (our estimate: | 2111.2 crore). The performance during the quarter under review was impacted by inventory write-down. Value of inventories of raw materials and finished goods at some of the subsidiary companies, especially in Tata Steel Europe, has been written down to recognise the fall in market price of these products. The write-down for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 amounts to | 741.7 crore. Consequently, the Tata Steel group registered a net loss of | 603 crore (US$114 million) in Q3FY12 compared to a net profit of | 1,003 crore (US$189 million) in Q3FY11.

Indian operations
During the quarter under review, the turnover of Tata Steels Indian operations was | 8382 crore (US$1.58 billion), which was higher by 13.3% YoY and 2.1% QoQ. In Q3FY12, deliveries from Tata Steels Indian operations were 1.62 MT, which was slightly below our estimate of 1.65 MT. The EBITDA for Q3FY12 was | 2630.6, down ~5% QoQ. The PAT during the quarter under review stood at | 1421.3 crore, which was lower by 4.9% QoQ and 6.1% YoY.

European operations
During the quarter under review, the turnover of Tata Steels European operations was | 20535 crore (US$3.87 billion), which was higher by 17.2% YoY but lower by 3.0% QoQ. In Q3FY12, deliveries from Tata Steels European operations were 3.35 MT, which was marginally higher than our estimate of 3.3 MT. There was an EBITDA loss of | 781 crore (US$147 million) in Q3FY12 compared to positive EBITDA of | 392 crore (US$74 million) in Q3FY11 and | 505 crore (US$95 million) in Q2FY12. The Q3FY12 loss was mainly due to mark-to-market provisions on stock.
Exhibit 2: Tata Steel Groups performance Q3FY12
Particulars Deliveries (MT) Turnover (US$ Mn) Reported EBITDA (US$ Mn) Add: NRV* provisions (US$ Mn) Adjusted EBITDA (US$ Mn) Adjusted EBITDA Margin (in %) Adjuted EBITDA/tonne (in US$) Tata Steel-India 1.62 1580.0 491.0 0.0 491.0 31.1 303 Tata Steel-Europe 3.35 3870.0 -147.0 143.0 -4.0 -0.1 -1 SE Asia 0.66 586.0 -2.0 0.0 -2.0 -0.3 -3 Tata Steel Group 5.84 6239.0 366.0 0.0 366.0 5.9 63

* - Net Realizable Value


Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

Conference Call highlights & other key developments

Indian operations During the quarter under review, the overall net realisations were higher due to increased retail sales and favorable sales mix in longs. The long products sales dropped in Q3FY12 due to lower availability of semis on account of planned shutdowns. Flat products volume increased 3% YoY, which was in line with the increase in production volume. The 2.9 MTPA brownfield expansion in Jamshedpur is expected to be commissioned in Q4FY12. For FY13, the management expects incremental volumes of ~1 MT from the new capacity. With respect to the ferro alloys and mineral division, increased domestic market focus led to improved realisation in Q3FY12. Furthermore, during the quarter under review, higher production in ferro chrome conversion units resulted in higher ferro alloy sales. NatSteel holdings Singapore performed better on account of better scrap-rebar gap management and its conversion cost reduction programme. Furthermore, downstream sales were the best ever. Furnace upgrade by December 2012 is expected to result in both productivity enhancement and power cost savings. Tata Steel Thailand The construction industry contracted 10.4% QoQ in Q3FY12 due to severe floods. Continued focus on mix enrichment led to higher sales of special wire rods in Q3FY12. Net debt at the end of September 2011 was | 45,056 crore (US$9.2 billion) compared to | 46,627 crore (US$9.5 billion) at the end of March 2011. Capex for FY12E and FY13E is expected to be in the range of ~ US$2 billion each. European operations For the European operations, the management expects steel deliveries to remain broadly at the same level as FY12. The write-down of high cost inventory is expected have a positive impact on the Q4FY12 margins. Capex guidance Tata Steel plans to incur a capex of US$2.5 billion every year for the next two years. Out of this, US$600 million would be for European operations, US$400 million for the Jamshedpur expansion (residual payments), US$ 800 million for its expansion in Odisha, US$150 million for its JV with Nippon Steel, US$100 million for its raw material projects and a sustenance capex of US$300 million.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

Valuation

At the CMP of | 472, the stock is discounting its FY13E EPS by 9.3x and EV/EBITDA by 5.8x. We have a cautious view on overseas operations on account of global macro headwinds. However, on the back of an improvement seen in the domestic demand scenario we have valued the Indian operations at 6.0x its FY13E EV/EBITDA (from 5.5x earlier) and European and Asian subsidiaries at 4x its FY13E EV/EBITDA. We have arrived at a target price of | 442 assigning a HOLD rating to the stock.
Exhibit 3: Valuation matrix
FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Sales (| Crore) 101757.8 117149.8 130936.6 137024.2 EPS (|) NA 69.6 22.9 50.9 PE (x) NA 6.8 20.6 9.3 EV/EBIDTA (x) 11.0 5.9 7.4 5.8 P/ BV (x) 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 RoNW (%) -8.8 18.0 5.3 10.9 RoCE (%) 4.7 11.9 8.0 9.7

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 4

Financial summary (Consolidated)


Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March) Net Sales Other Operating Income Total Operating Income Growth (%) Raw Material Expenses Employee Expenses Purchase of Power Other expenses Total Operating Expenditure EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income PBT Exceptional Item Total Tax PAT Growth (%) Minorities, Associates etc Rep PAT after Assoc., MI Adj PAT after Assoc, MI Growth (%) Adj EPS (|) FY10 101757.8 635.4 102393.1 -30.2 31664.5 16463.0 4051.7 42171.2 94350.5 8042.7 -55.6 4491.7 3022.1 1185.9 1714.7 -1683.7 2151.8 -2120.8 59.9 111.6 -2009.2 -325.5 PL NA FY11 117149.8 1603.3 118753.1 16.0 36688.1 15288.4 4014.8 46766.2 102757.5 15995.6 98.9 4414.8 2770.0 981.0 9791.7 2310.2 3245.9 8856.0 LP 126.6 8982.7 6672.5 LP 69.6 FY12E 130936.6 800.0 131736.6 10.9 44628.4 16897.0 4844.9 52451.4 118821.7 12914.9 -19.3 4639.6 3112.3 430.5 5593.4 3919.5 3650.7 5862.2 -33.8 280.0 6142.2 2222.7 -66.7 22.9

(| crore)
FY13E 137024.2 850.0 137874.2 4.7 45508.8 17524.8 5078.0 53720.4 121832.0 16042.2 24.2 5655.1 3272.2 600.0 7714.9 0.0 2936.8 4778.1 -18.5 165.0 4943.1 4943.1 122.4 50.9

Cash flow statement


(Year-end March) Profit after Tax Add: Depreciation (Inc)/dec in Current Assets Inc/(dec) in CL and Prov. Others CF from operating activities (Inc)/dec in Investments (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets Others CF from investing activities Issue/(Buy back) of Equity Inc/(dec) in loan funds Dividend paid & dividend tax Inc/(dec) in Share Cap Others CF from financing activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash Closing Cash FY10 -2009.2 4491.7 10649.0 -247.4 722.7 13606.9 993.3 -4981.7 -10.8 -3999.2 -5316.0 -6800.1 -909.4 3334.3 750.4 -8940.9 666.8 6148.4 6815.1 FY11 8982.7 4414.8 -11819.4 3774.3 94.0 5446.4 -2429.6 -11012.4 4.8 -13437.1 1750.2 7584.0 -1313.5 4830.6 -783.1 12068.2 4077.5 6815.1 10892.6 FY12E 6142.2 4639.6 -7058.6 348.1 0.0 4071.2 1650.0 -4800.0 165.0 -2985.0 12.0 1000.0 -1362.9 0.0 0.0 -350.9 735.3 10892.6 11627.9

(| crore)
FY13E 4943.1 5655.1 -740.5 8386.5 0.0 18244.3 -500.0 -13800.0 80.0 -14220.0 0.0 500.0 -1362.9 0.0 0.0 -862.9 3161.4 11627.9 14789.3

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet
(Year-end March) Liabilities Equity Share Capital Reserve and Surplus Total Shareholders funds Total Debt Deferred Tax Liability Minority Interest & Others Total Liabilities Assets Gross Block Less: Impairment Less: Acc Depreciation Net Block CWIP Investments Goodwill on Consolidation Inventory Debtors Loans and Advances Other Current Assets Cash Total Current Assets Current Liabilities Provisions Current Liabilities & Prov Net Current Assets Misc Expenditure Application of Funds FY10 886.7 21944.6 22831.4 53100.4 1802.9 2054.7 79789.3 97289.0 2909.8 57902.9 36476.4 9319.4 5417.8 14541.8 16971.5 11512.4 6849.9 1722.7 6815.1 43871.7 23392.5 6594.2 29986.7 13885.1 148.8 79789.3 FY11 958.7 36122.6 37081.4 60684.3 2188.2 1768.3 101722.2 98101.4 3180.3 58411.8 36509.3 15884.2 7847.3 15298.2 22213.7 14816.3 9994.7 1851.4 10892.6 59768.6 26671.1 7089.9 33761.0 26007.7 175.6 101722.2 FY12E 970.7 40901.9 41872.6 61684.3 2188.2 1933.3 107678.4 108101.4 3380.3 63051.4 41669.7 10884.2 6197.3 15298.2 21902.1 17936.5 14244.7 1851.4 11627.9 67562.6 26769.2 7339.9 34109.1 33453.5 175.6 107678.4

(| crore)
FY13E 970.7 44482.1 45452.9 62184.3 2188.2 2013.3 111838.7 118101.4 3580.3 68706.5 45814.6 14884.2 6697.3 15298.2 30032.7 15016.3 9774.7 1851.4 14789.3 71464.5 34905.7 7589.9 42495.7 28968.8 175.6 111838.7

Key ratios
(Year-end March) Per share data (|) Adj EPS Cash EPS BV DPS Cash Per Share Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin PBT / Total Operating income PAT Margin Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio FY10 NA 28.0 257.5 8.0 76.9 7.9 1.7 -2.0 80.2 41.3 110.6 -8.8 4.7 5.1 NA 11.0 0.9 0.4 1.8 6.6 2.3 1.5 0.9 FY11 69.6 139.7 386.8 12.0 113.6 13.5 8.2 7.6 91.3 46.2 109.6 18.0 11.9 13.3 6.8 5.9 0.8 0.4 1.2 3.8 1.6 1.8 1.1 FY12E 22.9 111.1 431.3 12.0 119.8 9.8 4.2 4.7 90.0 50.0 110.0 5.3 8.0 9.0 20.6 7.4 0.7 0.3 1.1 4.8 1.5 2.0 1.3 FY13E 50.9 109.2 468.2 12.0 152.4 11.6 5.6 3.6 80.0 40.0 125.0 10.9 9.7 11.2 9.3 5.8 0.7 0.3 1.0 3.9 1.4 1.7 1.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Metals & Mining)


Adhunik Metaliks Idirect Code ADHMET CMP (|) Target (|) Upside (%) MCap (| Cr) JSW Steel Idirect Code JINVIJ CMP (|) Target (|) Upside (%) MCap (| Cr) Usha Martin Idirect Code USHBEL CMP (|) Target (|) Upside (%) MCap (| Cr) Visa Steel Idirect Code VISST CMP (|) Target (|) Upside (%) MCap (| Cr) Idirect Code 636.9 TISCO CMP (|) Target (|) Upside (%) MCap (| Cr) SAIL Idirect Code SAIL CMP (|) Target (|) Upside (%) MCap (| Cr) Sesa Goa Idirect Code 46757.5 SESGOA CMP (|) Target (|) Upside (%) MCap (| Cr) Hindustan Zinc Idirect Code HINZIN CMP (|) Target (|) Upside (%) MCap (| Cr) Idirect Code 61393.9 STEIND CMP (|) Target (|) Upside (%) MCap (| Cr) 43443.6 127.6 125.0 -2.0 Sterlite Indsutries FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E 24410.3 30248.1 40401.1 44537.2 11.1 15.0 14.1 17.6 10.0 7.4 7.9 6.3 6.7 4.9 5.1 4.3 10.1 12.2 9.7 10.3 8.7 10.8 9.4 9.8 143.0 142.0 -0.7 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E 8017.0 9912.1 11586.0 12543.2 9.6 11.6 13.6 15.1 14.9 12.3 10.5 9.5 10.0 8.0 6.4 5.0 22.3 21.7 20.7 18.9 24.5 22.8 20.4 18.9 20415.2 231.0 198.0 -14.3 111.0 120.0 8.1 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E 41307.2 43432.8 45141.9 49726.4 5858.3 9205.1 8007.5 8183.5 16.4 11.9 9.6 10.4 31.6 48.6 29.8 39.0 6.8 9.3 11.6 10.7 6.8 4.4 7.2 5.5 3.9 6.2 8.3 8.6 5.8 3.6 6.4 7.3 20.4 13.3 9.8 9.9 33.2 33.0 17.2 18.8 20.2 13.4 8.0 8.0 31.1 37.0 17.4 12.4 46137.5 475.0 442.0 -6.9 Tata Steel - Cons FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E 101757.8 117149.8 130936.6 137024.2 NA 69.6 22.9 50.9 NA 6.8 20.6 9.3 11.0 5.9 7.4 5.8 -8.8 18.0 5.3 10.9 4.7 11.9 8.0 9.7 57.6 53.0 -7.9 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E 1156.9 1305.9 1449.4 1788.5 4.5 4.7 2.6 7.3 12.9 12.3 22.0 7.9 8.4 10.7 10.3 5.2 15.4 14.4 7.5 17.2 10.0 8.5 5.2 13.8 1063.5 35.7 29.0 -18.8 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E 2514.4 3046.6 3379.1 3792.0 5.5 4.5 1.3 3.5 5.6 6.9 23.7 8.8 4.0 4.4 6.1 5.1 10.0 7.7 2.2 5.8 12.7 10.7 6.9 8.9 18223.1 810.0 595.0 -26.5 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E 18780.4 23900.2 28630.9 32448.5 85.4 78.6 53.8 70.7 9.5 10.3 15.1 11.5 6.8 6.1 6.0 5.6 17.3 10.6 7.2 8.8 11.0 9.5 10.1 9.6 657.0 54.6 37.0 -32.2 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Sales (| Cr) 1449.7 1793.4 2074.9 2528.3 EPS (|) 11.1 14.8 4.9 12.5 PE (x) 4.9 3.7 11.0 3.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 5.9 6.6 4.9 RoNW(%) 19.0 21.0 6.8 15.4 RoCE(%) 12.5 10.7 9.1 11.9

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 6

Exhibit 4: Recommendation History


800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Price Aug-11 Sep-11 Target Price Nov-11 Dec-11 Feb-12

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 5: Recent Releases


Date 17-Feb-11 8-Apr-11 30-May-11 5-Jul-11 17-Aug-11 5-Oct-11 11-Nov-11 6-Jan-12 10-Feb-12 Event Q3FY11 Result Update Q4FY11 Preview Q4FY11 Result Update Q1FY12 Preview Q1FY12 Result Update Q2FY12 Result Preview Q2FY12 Result Update Q3FY12 Result Preview Q3FY12 Result Update CMP 655 630 579 597 473 401 430 364 475 Target Price 700 700 639 632 506 506 447 448 442 Rating HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY HOLD

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Dewang Sanghavi MBA (FIN) research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.

Disclosures:
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