Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
May 7, 2012
Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open in the red today, tracking weak global
markets. Most of the Asian markets are trading in the negative territory, with Hang
Seng and Nikkei down by more than 2%. SGX Nifty too is trading lower by
~1.5%.
Domestic Indices
Meanwhile the US Markets fell sharply on Friday tacking poor employment data
released by the labour department. The report showed that employment increased
by 115,000 jobs in April as against expectations of an increase of about 165,000
jobs. The European markets too traded lower during the day.
The Indian markets fell by 2% on Friday weighed down by news that the
government is considering a review of the double taxation avoidance treaty with
Mauritius. The fall in the markets was to an extent attributable to the RBIs final
guidelines to implement the Basel-III norms.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,910 / 5,112 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 17,043 17,254 / 5,153 5,218 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
16,910 / 5,112 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
16,698 16,565 / 5,046 5,005 levels.
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
16,565
16,698
16,910
17,043
17,254
NIFTY
5,005
5,046
5,112
5,153
5,218
News Analysis
4QFY2012 Result Reviews Bank of Baroda, Allahabad Bank, IOB,

Corporation Bank, Syndicate Bank, UCO Bank, DB Corp, ITNL, United Bank,
ITD Cementation
4QFY2012 Result Previews Bosch, GlaxoSmithKline Pharma, Andhra Bank
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
(1.9) (320.1) 16,831

(2.0) (101.6)
5,087
MID CAP
(2.2) (134.0)
6,101
SMALL CAP
(1.8) (121.7)
6,588
16.0
6,803
BSE PSU
(2.5) (176.8)
6,927
BANKEX
(3.2) (369.7) 11,284
AUTO
(1.8) (184.6) 10,024
METAL
(2.5) (271.7) 10,562
OIL & GAS
(1.7) (129.7)
7,738
BSE IT
(0.9)
(53.7)
5,733
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE HC
Global Indices
Purch
Sales
FII
2,365
2,274
351
585
MFs
Net
MTD
YTD
91
335
43,797
(234)
(297)
(6,397)
FII Derivatives (May 04, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Index Futures
Stock Futures
Open Interest
1,578
2,617
(1,038)
8,961
1,263
1,441
(178)
20,195
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Essar Oil
Price (`)
Losers
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
53
3.6
IRB Infra
129
(14.0)
Cipla
325
2.5
Pantaloon Retl
161
(12.9)
Lupin
550
2.0
MRF
10,328
(7.9)
22
1.9
GVK Power
14
(6.5)
124
1.8
Financial Tech
616
(6.4)
Suzlon Energy
Exide Inds
www.angelbroking.com
0.2
Dow Jones
(1.3) (168.3) 13,038
NASDAQ
(2.3)
(68.0)
2,956
FTSE
(1.9) (111.5)
5,655
Nikkei
0.3
29.3
9,380
Hang Seng
(0.8) (163.5) 21,086
Straits Times
(0.3)
(9.8)
2,991
0.5
11.9
2,452
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
(2.3)
(1.1)
$45.7
WIT
(1.3)
(0.1)
$9.4
IBN
(2.6)
(0.8)
$31.0
HDB
(1.6)
(0.5)
$32.4
Indian ADRs
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
713
246
2,127
1,209
96
49
Unchanged
` cr
(Close)
Nifty
Declines
Net Inflows (May 3, 2012)
(Pts)
BSE Sensex
Shanghai Com
Indices
Chg (%)
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
2,629
NSE
11,147
Market Outlook
May 7, 2012
Result Reviews
Bank of Baroda (CMP: `687 / TP: `926/ Upside: 34.8%)
For 4QFY2012, Bank of Baroda (BOB) posted a moderate set of numbers on the
operating front. Deterioration in asset quality was also witnessed during
4QFY2012 due to higher slippages and restructuring. However, tax write-back of
`425cr led to bottom-line growing by 17.3% yoy.
For FY2012, the banks advances and deposits grew by strong 25.7% yoy and
26.0% yoy, respectively. The banks domestic CASA growth remained reasonably
healthy at 15.9% yoy. The banks domestic yield on advances declined by 30bp
qoq to 11.7%, while domestic cost of deposits came in higher by 27bp qoq to
6.9%, leading to a 7bp fall in reported NIM to 3.4% during 4QFY2012. Fee
income of the bank remained muted in 4QFY2012, growing marginally by 0.4%
qoq (up a moderate 6.6% yoy). Commission and brokerage income was higher in
4QFY2012 (up 17.7% qoq), however was negated by lower income from forex
transactions and incidental charges. Employee expenses for the bank increased by
51.2% qoq on the back of additional pension provisioning of ~`300cr. Slippage
levels for the bank, which had increased to `952cr in 3QFY2012 (quarterly run
rate of `500cr), increased further to `1,323cr in 4QFY2012 (on the back of a
chunky media account). The banks restructured book increased by 51.7% qoq
(`5,139cr restructured during 4QFY2012) on the back of restructuring of SEBs
(`2,000cr) and Air India (`2,400cr). The bank reported a tax write-back of `425cr
during 4QFY2012 on account of pending tax credit and higher tax exemptions
during 4QFY2012 due to higher NPA write-offs (`530cr during 4QFY2012). We
currently have a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `926.
Y/E
March
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
(`)
(%)
RoA
(x)
RoE
P/E
(x)
P/ABV
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
15,993
2.6
5,250
121.5 730.7
1.1
17.8 5.7
0.9
FY2014E
18,918
2.6
6,183
143.1 841.9
1.1
18.2 4.8
0.8
Allahabad Bank (CMP: `170 / TP: `194/ Upside: 14.2%)

Allahabad Bank reported its results for 4QFY2012. Bank reported NII of `1,288cr,
which declined by 6.7% qoq on account of sequential fall in NIMs. Non-interest
income for the bank also dipped by 24.4% on a yoy basis to `355cr. Further,
operating expenses for the bank increased by 6.2% qoq, which coupled with 4.9%
qoq decline in operating income, lead the pre-provisioning profits to decline by
12.5% qoq to `901cr. Net profit declined by even higher by 28.6% qoq to `400cr,
on back of increase in provisioning expenses by 7.9% qoq. The banks asset
quality deteriorated slightly during the quarter, with net NPA ratio increasing by
19bp. We recommend Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `194.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
RoA
RoE
P/E
P/ABV
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
7,700
3.4
2,050
37.4
227.3
1.1
18.8 4.5
0.7
FY2014E
8,677
3.3
2,241
40.9
258.9
1.0
16.8 4.2
0.7
Market Outlook
May 7, 2012
IOB (CMP: `84 / TP: `104/ Upside: 24.7%)

IOB reported a healthy set of numbers with net profit growing by 21.8% yoy to
`529cr, above our estimates on account of higher margin expansion and lower
provisioning expenses than estimated by us.
Calculated margins of the bank increased by 12bp sequentially to 2.6%. Asset
quality of the bank remained stable with gross NPA level declining by 1.3% qoq.
However, the bank chose to decrease its provisioning coverage ratio by ~400bp
(67.7% as of 4QFY2012), leading to lower provisioning expenses in the PnL (down
13.1% yoy) and an increase of 19.2% qoq on the net NPA level. We currently have
a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `84.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
RoA
RoE
P/E
P/ABV
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
7,328
2.5
1,303
15.9
143.7
0.6
12.7 5.3
0.6
FY2014E
8,264
2.5
1,732
21.1
160.1
0.6
13.9 4.0
0.5
Corporation Bank (CMP: `385 / TP: `522/ Upside: 35.6%)

During 4QFY2012, Corporation Bank registered virtually flat yoy growth in Net profit
to `351cr, which was below our estimates mainly on account of lower-than-expected
operating income and better-than-expected provisioning. CASA ratio for the bank
improved by 99bps to 22.1%, on back of healthy traction witnessed in current
account with growth of 27.6% qoq and reasonable 4.0% qoq growth in saving
deposits. Sequential dip in yield on advances by 20bps, coupled with qoq increase in
the cost of deposits by 39bps, lead to a qoq decline in reported NIMs (by 25bps to
2.41%) and consequently lower operating income. Non-interest income excl.
treasury dipped by 19.9% yoy to `327cr, mainly on back of 15.3% yoy de-growth in
fee income to `236cr and lower recoveries from written off accounts (`38cr in
4QFY2012 compared to `93cr in 4QFY2011). The banks asset quality continued to
remain at stable levels, with both gross and net NPA ratio declining sequentially by
9bps and annualized slippage ratio at comfortable levels of 0.75%. Provision
coverage ratio also improved by 242bp qoq to 65.3%. We recommend a Buy view
on the stock with a target price of `522.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
(`)
(%)
RoA
(x)
RoE
P/E
(x)
P/ABV
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
5,203
2.2
1,592
107.5 627.0
0.9
17.9 3.6
0.6
FY2014E
5,880
2.1
1,669
112.6 720.1
0.8
16.5 3.4
0.5
Syndicate Bank (CMP: `97 / TP: `128/ Upside: 31.4%)

Syndicate Bank reported poor operating performance for 4QFY2012. Bank
reported NII of `1,337cr (almost flat qoq on back of sequentially flat NIMs).
However, non-interest income for the bank saw traction during the quarter
growing by 17.7% yoy (24.6% qoq) to `300cr. Further, operating expenses for the
bank increased by 31.6% qoq (13.7% yoy), which lead the pre-provisioning profits
to decline by 14.3% qoq to `790cr. Decline in Net profit was however limited to
Market Outlook
May 7, 2012
8.5% qoq to `309cr, aided by negative tax expenses of `61cr during the quarter
as against tax expenses of `41cr in 3QFY2012 and `30cr in 4QFY2011 The
banks asset quality deteriorated slightly during the quarter, with both gross and
net NPA ratios increasing by 24bp and 10bp, respectively. We recommend a buy
on the stock with a target price of `128.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
RoA
RoE
P/E
P/ABV
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
7,069
3.1
1,509
23.2
149.3
0.8
17.4 4.2
0.7
FY2014E
7,961
3.0
1,784
27.5
170.4
0.8
17.2 3.5
0.6
UCO Bank (CMP: `72 / TP: `67/ Downside: 6.9%)

During 4QFY2012, UCO bank reported disappointing set of operating numbers.
NII for the bank remained almost flat on qoq basis to `1,051cr. Non-interest
income for the bank dipped on a yoy basis by 13.7% to `252cr. Operating
expenses for the bank increased by 13.3% qoq (3.2% yoy) to `574cr, which
despite subdued 2.7% qoq growth in operating income, lead the pre-provisioning
profits to decline by 4.3% qoq to `728cr. Higher provisioning expenses (up by
8.5% qoq), dragged the Net profit by even higher 24.0% qoq to `253cr. Asset
quality for the bank remained stable sequentially, with gross and net NPA ratio
coming in at 3.48% and 1.96%, respectively. We recommend Reduce on the stock
with a target price of `67.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
RoA
RoE
P/E
(x)
P/ABV
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
5,359
2.3
1,042
12.4
82.6
0.5
13.2 5.8
0.9
FY2014E
6,067
2.2
1,130
13.7
89.9
0.5
12.9 5.3
0.8
DB Corp (CMP: `205/ TP: 274 / Upside : 33% )

For 4QFY2012, DB Corp consolidated net revenues grew by moderate 13.6% yoy
to `361cr. Top-line growth was mainly on account of modest 4.4% yoy growth in
advertisement revenues to `246cr and healthy 16.1% yoy growth in circulation
revenues to `62cr (aided by new launches during the quarter). The companys
EBITDA margin declined by ~410bp yoy to 21.0%, on back of higher newsprint
costs on a yoy basis. Consequently, Net profit for the company remained flat on a
yoy basis to `45cr. Currently, the stock is trading at FY2014E price to earnings
multiple of 12.7x. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of
`274.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
1656
26
256
14
24.8 14.6
3.3
8.4
2.2
FY2014E
1869
26.8
295
16.1
24.1 12.7
2.8
7.0
1.9
*Estimates are subject to change post conference call
Market Outlook
May 7, 2012
ITNL (CMP: `175 / TP: `265 / Upside: 52%)

For 4QFY2012, on a consolidated basis, IL&FS Transportation Networks (ITNL)
posted strong set of numbers with robust performance on all fronts. The
companys revenue for the quarter came in at `1,989cr (`1,656cr), registering
20.1% yoy/56.8% qoq growth, significantly higher than our estimate of `1,507cr.
This was mainly on account of increased contribution from the E&C segment.
EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 23.0% vs. 24.8% in 4QFY2011, down
180bp and 230bp on yoy and qoq basis respectively, against our estimate of
24.8%. ITNLs interest cost during the quarter grew by 28.9% yoy / 24.5% qoq to
`231cr, ahead of our expectation of `200cr. On the earnings front, ITNL reported
growth of 11.4% on yoy basis to `177cr higher than our estimate of `111cr on
back of strong revenue growth. We recommend Buy on the stock with a target
price of `265.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
6,619
23.8
480
24.7
17.0
7.1
1.1
9.3
2.2
FY2014E
7,263
24.2
510
26.2
15.7
6.7
1.0
9.3
2.2
United Bank (CMP: `64 / TP: `87/ Upside: 36.5%)

United Bank reported a weak set of numbers with net profit growing by muted
4.2% yoy to `149cr, which were below our estimates mostly due to higher
provisioning expenses than estimated by us.
Calculated margins for the bank dipped by 38bp qoq to 2.6%. Asset quality of the
bank deteriorated during 4QFY2012 with gross NPA level increasing by 12.2%
qoq. The banks provisioning coverage ratio, however, increased by 265bp qoq to
69.2%, leading to net NPA level declining by 8.7% sequentially. We currently have
a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `87.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
RoA
RoE
P/E
P/ABV
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
3,666
2.9
788
18.4
117.6
0.7
15.9 3.5
0.5
FY2014E
4,128
2.9
901
21.7
134.2
0.7
16.0 3.0
0.5
Market Outlook
May 7, 2012
ITD Cementation 1QCY2012 (CMP `175, TP - `203, Upside: 17%)

For 1QCY2012, ITD Cementation reported 11.5% yoy growth in its top line to
`384cr, which was slightly lower than our estimate of `392cr. The company's
operating margin expanded by 492bp yoy to 12.8% mainly because of lower
employee cost and other expense as a percentage of revenue. Other income for
the quarter declined by 73.1% yoy to `1.6cr. Profit for the quarter increased
substantially by 204% yoy, however it was flat on a qoq basis to `12cr. The stock is
currently trading at a PBV of 0.4x. We currently have a Buy recommendation on
the stock with a target price of `203. We may revise our estimates and target price
post an interaction with management.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
Dec
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
P/BV EV/ EBITDA EV/Sales

(x)
(x)
(x)
CY2012E
1,535
12.0
35
30.0
8.7
5.8
0.5
4.7
0.6
CY2013E
1,842
12.2
58
50.0
13.1
3.5
0.4
4.3
0.5
Result Previews
Bosch
Bosch is slated to announce its 1QCY2012 results. We expect the company to
deliver ~8% yoy growth in its revenue to `2,245cr for the quarter. On the
operating front, the company is expected to post a marginal 35bp yoy
contraction in its operating margin to 18.5%. However, net profit is expected
to register a 10% yoy increase to `301cr. The stock rating is under review.
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals
For 1QCY2012, Glaxo Pharmaceuticals (Glaxo) is expected to post net sales and
profit of around `697cr and `200cr, registering yoy growth of 15.8% and 7.4%,
respectively. On the operating front, the companys margin is expected to dip by
70bp yoy to end the period at 34.3%. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Andhra Bank
Andhra Bank is scheduled to announce its 4QFY2012 results today. We expect the
bank to report a moderate Net Interest Income (NII) growth of 3.3% qoq to
`1,016cr. Non-interest income is expected to decline by 11.0% yoy to `266cr.
Despite the expected 5.2% qoq growth in overall operating income, a 10.7% yoy
increase in operating expenses is expected to limit the growth in pre-provisioning
profits to only 2.0% qoq. Provisioning expenses are expected to decline by 16.9%
qoq, which would result in 8.3% qoq growth in net profit to `328cr. At the CMP,
the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Neutral
recommendation on the stock.
Market Outlook
May 7, 2012
GSK Consumer
GSK Consumer is slated to announce its 1QCY2012 numbers. For the quarter, we
expect GSK Consumer to post decent top-line growth of 18.3% yoy to `840cr,
aided by volume growth and price/mix growth. We expect the companys margin
to decline marginally by 36bp to 20.1%. The bottom line is expected to grow by
16.5% yoy to `129cr, aided by top-line growth. We continue to remain Neutral on
the stock.
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Grasim Industries Ltd - Consolidated (05/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
6,942
6,390
6,260
11
EBITDA
(7)
1,413
1,541
1,650
EBITDA margin (%)
22.2
25.8
Net profit
757
865
22.6
(12)
669
13
GlaxoSmithKline Pharma - (07/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
676
603
12
566
19
EBITDA
229
218
182
26
EBITDA margin (%)
33.9
36.2
Net profit
185
32.2
3922
137
35
HDFC - (07/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
1,006
1,142
-12
981
Asian Paints Ltd - Consolidated (08/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
2,398
1,966
22
2,561
(6)
EBITDA
345
289
19
397
(13)
EBITDA margin (%)
14.4
14.7
Net profit
220
186
Net sales
15.5
18
257
(14)
Glenmark Pharma Ltd - Consolidated (08/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
992
792
25
1,031
(4)
Net profit
116
81
43
103
13
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
6,929
6,761
6,590
EBITDA
757
915
(17)
715
EBITDA margin (%)
10.9
13.5
Net profit
484
708
Hindalco Industries Ltd - (08/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
10.8
(32)
451
Market Outlook
May 7, 2012
IDFC Ltd - (08/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
429
287
49
381
13
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd - Consolidated (08/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
481
491
-2
463
Economic and Political News
Government plans review of tax treaty with Mauritius

Government proposes setting up sovereign fund to buy coal assets abroad
Iraq becomes second largest crude oil supplier to India
Corporate News
Infy clients mulling contingency plans over visa row: Forrester

Two iGate promoters reduce stake by 3%
Petronet likely to sell stake in Vizag terminal
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
May 07, 2012
Result Calendar
Date
Company
May 07, 2012
May 09, 2012
HDFC, Bosch India, GSK Pharma, GlaxoSmith Con, Andhra Bank, South Ind.Bank
Kotak Mah. Bank, Asian Paints, Hindalco, IDFC, Shriram Trans., Glenmark Pharma., Central Bank, CESC, Dena Bank,
CEAT
Punjab Natl.Bank, Ranbaxy, ABB, Union Bank, IRB Infra, NIIT
May 10, 2012
NTPC, Cipla, Lupin, Canara Bank, Cadila Healthcare, Reliance Capital, Sintex, Apollo Tyres, HEG
May 11, 2012
Dr Reddy's, Essar Oil, Indian Bank, Federal Bank, Thermax, Graphite India, Goodyear
May 12, 2012
J & K Bank, Divi's Lab., Bhushan Steel, Madhucon Proj, Consolidated Co, Relaxo
May 13, 2012
May 14, 2012
Mundra Port, JSW Steel , Ashok Leyland, Indraprasth Gas
May 15, 2012
Cummins India, Patel Engg., Dishman Pharma
May 16, 2012
J K Lakshmi Cements
May 17, 2012
Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam
May 18, 2012
St Bk of India, HT Media
May 19, 2012
Force Motors
May 20, 2012
May 21, 2012
Adani Enterp., Adani Power
May 22, 2012
May 08, 2012
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
May 10, 2012
May 11, 2012
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
28-Apr-12
365.00
370.00
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Mar-12
8.90
8.50
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
May-12
0.50
0.50
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Feb-12
(2.30)
(2.60)
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Feb-12
4.10
--
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Mar-12
--
--
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
11.90
12.10
China
% Change
Mar-12
3.60
3.40
% Change
Mar-12
6.89
--
% Change
Mar-12
0.30
0.20
May 14, 2012
India
May 15, 2012
US
Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Consumer price index (mom)
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
Dec-11
(0.30)
--
Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
1.50
--
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Mar-12
2.70
--
US
Industrial Production
Mar-12
--
0.40
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Mar-12
654.00
678.00
US
Building permits
Thousands
Mar-12
764.00
733.00
UK
% Change
Mar-12
3.60
--
Value
Apr-12
(19.90)
--
UK
Jobless claims change

Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
3.50
--
US
Existing home sales
Millions
Mar-12
4.48
--
US
New home sales
Thousands
Mar-12
328.00
--
May 16, 2012
May 22, 2012
May 23, 2012
Euro Zone
Market Strategy
May 07, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

(%)
Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)
9.8
10.0
12.0
9.4
9.0
8.0
7.5
8.3
7.8
7.6
7.4
8.0
7.7
6.9
5.8
5.3
6.0
7.0
6.0
4.0
6.1
5.9
6.2
3.7
4.1
3.4
2.5
2.5
1.1
2.0
(6.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.8
10.0
9.9
7.7
8.0
Feb-12
Jan-12
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
6.9
7.0
56.0
6.9
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
90
75
Reverse Repo rate
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
48.0
Sep-11
0.0
Aug-11
50.0
Jul-11
2.0
May-11
52.0
Apr-11
4.0
Jun-11
54.0
6.0
May-11
10.0
Dec-11
(5.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
12.0
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
4QFY09
3QFY09
(4.0)
May-11
(2.0)
5.0
Apr-11
Mar-11
6.0
9.5
9.4
10.0
8.5
CRR
8.00
8.00
60
7.00
45
30
6.00
4.75
5.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
4.00
Apr-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
15
(15)
7.00
Market Outlook
May 07, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
113
2,198
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
16.2
14.1
3.4
2.9
22.8
22.3
1.6
1.3
United Phosphorus
Buy
120
183
5,529
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
7.0
6.6
1.1
1.0
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
294
345
2,512
2,691
3,032
15.6
15.5
29.4
32.8
10.0
9.0
2.4
1.9
26.5
23.6
0.9
0.7
Apollo Tyres
Buy
81
100
4,060
13,580
15,007
10.1
10.2
10.5
12.5
7.6
6.4
1.3
1.1
21.8
30.7
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
28
37
7,556
15,008
16,906
9.5
9.5
2.6
3.1
11.1
9.2
2.3
2.0
15.5
17.0
0.6
0.5
Automotive Axle
Neutral
518
783
1,211
1,390
11.9
11.5
50.5
56.3
10.3
9.2
2.6
2.1
27.9
25.3
0.7
0.6
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,502
1,811
43,456
21,966
24,774
19.8
19.0
111.7
120.7
13.5
12.4
5.2
4.2
43.1
37.1
1.6
1.3
Bharat Forge
Buy
320
372
7,446
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
14.3
12.0
2.8
2.3
21.0
21.0
1.1
0.9
Bosch India
Neutral
8,574
26,920
9,335
10,564
18.3
18.3
394.5
439.3
21.7
19.5
4.4
3.6
20.1
18.7
2.5
2.2
CEAT
Buy
104
140
355
5,057
5,620
5.4
5.6
22.2
31.1
4.7
3.3
0.5
0.5
11.9
16.8
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Buy
124
155
10,536
5,812
6,710
16.2
16.5
7.6
8.9
16.4
13.9
3.0
2.6
19.4
19.8
1.5
1.2
FAG Bearings
Accumulate
1,478
1,594
2,457
1,531
1,748
18.8
18.5
118.0
132.8
12.5
11.1
2.7
2.2
24.0
21.9
1.4
1.1
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
1,981
39,555
26,106
29,296
15.0
15.2
140.3
148.1
14.1
13.4
6.7
5.1
54.8
43.3
1.2
0.9
JK Tyre
Buy
77
113
318
8,058
9,025
5.4
5.5
24.8
32.2
3.1
2.4
0.3
0.3
11.4
13.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
688
802
42,232
35,095
40,213
10.7
10.5
44.6
48.7
15.4
14.1
2.7
2.4
18.8
18.1
0.9
0.7
Maruti
Buy
1,283
1,510
37,072
42,683
48,736
7.1
7.5
86.6
100.6
14.8
12.8
2.1
1.8
15.3
15.5
0.7
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Buy
170
216
6,581
11,167
12,516
9.5
10.0
11.3
14.4
15.0
11.8
3.2
2.7
23.3
24.7
0.7
0.6
Subros
Neutral
30
183
1,225
1,393
8.5
8.2
4.2
5.0
7.3
6.1
0.7
0.7
10.3
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Accumulate
301
328
81,123 191,183 213,150
12.6
12.6
38.7
42.9
7.8
7.0
2.7
2.1
39.8
33.9
0.5
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
39
55
1,839
7,982
8,816
6.4
6.3
5.0
5.6
7.7
7.0
1.4
1.2
18.9
18.2
0.2
0.2
ABB*
Sell
771
503
16,333
8,926
10,220
7.7
7.5
18.6
20.9
41.4
36.8
5.6
5.0
14.5
14.5
1.8
1.6
BGR Energy
Reduce
313
274
2,258
4,170
5,396
11.5
10.4
27.2
30.4
11.5
10.3
1.9
1.7
17.3
17.4
1.1
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
214
52,403
46,344
46,916
18.3
18.6
23.5
24.1
9.1
8.9
1.8
1.6
21.3
18.9
1.0
1.0
Blue Star
Buy
184
221
1,658
3,250
3,551
5.9
5.9
12.4
15.8
14.8
11.7
3.0
2.6
21.2
23.8
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
124
164
7,983
12,936
14,101
9.6
10.0
10.9
11.7
11.5
10.6
2.0
1.7
18.4
17.3
0.6
0.6
Jyoti Structures
Buy
41
67
340
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
3.8
3.1
0.5
0.4
12.7
13.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
54
72
1,392
6,865
7,650
8.5
8.7
9.7
12.1
5.6
4.5
1.1
0.9
27.6
27.0
0.5
0.4
LMW
Buy
1,596
2,609
1,798
2,663
3,130
12.8
12.8
185.0
217.4
8.6
7.3
1.7
1.5
21.2
21.7
0.2
0.2
Thermax
Neutral
423
5,042
5,473
5,497
10.1
9.8
30.4
28.7
13.9
14.8
2.7
2.4
20.5
16.9
0.8
0.7
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
May 07, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,206
22,645
11,018
12,663
19.9
21.2
70.7
81.2
17.1
14.9
3.0
2.7
18.0
19.0
1.8
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
142
21,860
10,035
11,504
23.5
23.8
10.1
10.6
14.1
13.5
2.8
2.5
18.5
19.4
1.8
1.5
India Cements
Neutral
84
2,591
4,423
4,906
18.2
18.8
9.9
12.7
8.6
6.7
0.7
0.7
8.6
10.5
0.9
0.8
J K Lakshmi Cements
Buy
64
79
779
1,880
2,201
19.0
22.6
12.2
16.4
5.2
3.9
0.6
0.5
11.9
14.3
0.6
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
141
3,347
3,434
3,777
25.5
26.1
14.1
18.1
10.0
7.8
1.4
1.2
15.2
16.9
1.6
1.3
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,728
9,502
5,552
6,193
25.7
26.0
130.3
182.0
20.9
15.0
4.3
3.7
19.1
22.3
1.4
1.1
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,370
37,548
20,116
22,655
21.3
22.5
82.1
97.5
16.7
14.1
2.6
2.3
16.8
17.4
1.8
1.7
200
302
1,050
2,014
2,294
22.4
22.4
28.4
30.8
7.0
6.5
0.9
0.8
14.1
13.3
2.3
2.6
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
15
273
2,526
2,792
5.7
6.6
1.8
2.8
8.0
5.2
0.4
0.4
5.6
8.2
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
20
1,210
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(11.1)
(25.6)
1.1
1.3
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
129
228
4,279
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
8.6
7.6
1.3
1.1
16.3
15.9
2.7
2.5
ITNL
Buy
176
265
3,411
6,619
7,263
23.8
24.2
24.7
26.2
7.1
6.7
1.1
1.0
17.0
15.7
2.1
2.2
IVRCL Infra
Buy
57
79
1,534
5,758
6,860
9.2
9.2
4.7
6.0
12.3
9.5
0.7
0.7
6.0
7.3
0.7
0.7
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
71
104
15,108
16,017
18,359
24.4
23.5
4.2
5.0
16.9
14.2
1.4
1.3
8.8
9.7
2.3
2.0
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,148
1,641
70,300
60,258
69,900
12.1
11.5
70.7
76.3
16.2
15.1
2.4
2.1
16.1
15.2
1.3
1.1
Madhucon Proj
Buy
49
84
360
2,503
2,903
10.7
10.7
5.8
6.6
8.4
7.5
0.5
0.5
6.6
7.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
43
76
1,097
5,790
7,022
9.2
9.5
3.5
5.4
12.3
7.9
0.5
0.4
3.7
5.6
0.8
0.8
Patel Engg.
Neutral
103
720
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
7.4
7.1
0.5
0.4
6.3
6.1
1.1
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
49
1,642
10,592
12,193
8.4
8.4
2.9
4.6
17.0
10.9
0.5
0.5
3.9
3.1
0.6
0.6
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
135
199
2,026
2,989
3,315
10.6
10.6
10.2
11.3
13.3
11.9
2.1
1.8
17.6
16.3
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
226
316
1,116
6,732
7,902
9.3
9.6
27.2
35.1
8.3
6.4
0.9
0.8
11.0
12.6
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Accumulate
170
193
8,498
7,700
8,677
3.4
3.3
37.4
40.9
4.5
4.2
0.8
0.7
19.0
17.0
Andhra Bank
Neutral
114
6,382
5,284
5,998
3.3
3.2
23.6
27.0
4.8
4.2
0.8
0.7
16.5
16.7
Axis Bank
Buy
1,010
1,587
41,727
16,157
19,557
3.2
3.2
116.4
139.1
8.7
7.3
1.6
1.4
20.0
20.3
Bank of Baroda
Buy
687
943
26,901
16,013
18,849
2.7
2.7
131.4
153.3
5.2
4.5
0.9
0.8
19.7
19.2
Bank of India
Accumulate
328
386
18,831
13,558
15,551
2.5
2.4
54.9
63.1
6.0
5.2
1.0
0.9
16.8
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Buy
52
62
3,042
3,665
4,107
3.5
3.5
10.7
13.5
4.8
3.8
0.7
0.6
17.8
17.5
Canara Bank
Buy
426
532
18,872
12,120
14,009
2.2
2.2
85.7
95.4
5.0
4.5
0.8
0.7
17.2
16.7
Central Bank
Reduce
93
92
6,809
6,860
7,934
2.4
2.4
13.1
19.9
7.1
4.7
0.9
0.8
10.5
13.8
Financials
Market Outlook
May 07, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Buy
385
508
5,707
5,361
5,995
2.2
2.1
108.3
111.5
3.6
3.5
0.6
0.6
17.9
16.2
Dena Bank
Buy
87
118
3,032
3,003
3,366
3.0
2.9
23.2
25.6
3.7
3.4
0.6
0.5
18.0
16.9
Federal Bank
Neutral
413
7,062
2,766
3,163
3.4
3.3
49.5
57.2
8.4
7.2
1.1
1.0
14.0
14.5
HDFC
Neutral
660
97,491
7,244
8,625
3.3
3.3
31.2
37.2
21.2
17.7
4.2
3.7
34.2
31.3
HDFC Bank
Neutral
537
126,038
21,831
27,477
4.3
4.3
28.3
35.5
19.0
15.1
3.7
3.1
20.8
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
834
1,183
95,843
22,209
26,512
2.8
2.8
67.9
81.1
12.3
10.3
1.5
1.4
14.7
16.0
IDBI Bank
Buy
Indian Bank
Accumulate
IOB
Buy
J & K Bank
96
117
12,241
8,004
9,589
1.9
2.0
19.9
23.9
4.8
4.0
0.6
0.6
13.8
14.9
209
240
8,982
6,469
7,244
3.5
3.3
45.5
48.8
4.6
4.3
0.8
0.7
19.6
18.2
84
104
6,655
7,328
8,264
2.5
2.5
15.9
21.1
5.3
4.0
0.6
0.5
12.7
13.9
Neutral
906
4,394
2,420
2,792
3.5
3.6
178.0
195.8
5.1
4.6
0.9
0.8
19.5
18.6
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
254
286
12,836
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
10.4
8.3
1.9
1.6
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Buy
228
285
6,655
6,431
7,315
2.7
2.6
54.4
63.8
4.2
3.6
0.6
0.5
13.6
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
804
1,138
25,462
20,708
24,094
3.5
3.5
156.3
178.7
5.1
4.5
0.9
0.8
19.7
18.5
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
23
2,613
1,368
1,557
2.8
2.7
3.7
3.9
6.3
5.9
1.1
1.0
19.1
17.7
St Bk of India
Buy
1,994
2,593
133,779
69,568
81,445
3.7
3.7
220.9
269.8
9.0
7.4
1.5
1.3
18.9
19.1
Syndicate Bank
Buy
97
128
5,857
7,069
7,961
3.1
3.0
23.3
27.5
4.2
3.5
0.7
0.6
17.4
17.2
UCO Bank
Neutral
72
4,540
5,727
6,443
2.5
2.5
17.8
18.8
4.1
3.9
0.8
0.7
17.8
16.2
Union Bank
Buy
217
266
11,375
10,352
11,988
2.9
2.9
40.7
49.5
5.3
4.4
0.8
0.7
16.8
17.4
United Bank
Buy
64
87
2,310
3,666
4,128
2.9
2.9
18.4
21.7
3.5
3.0
0.5
0.5
15.9
16.0
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
55
2,619
2,668
3,001
2.2
2.2
10.1
11.7
5.5
4.8
0.8
0.7
13.2
13.7
Yes Bank
Buy
333
470
11,767
3,209
4,144
2.7
2.8
33.9
41.5
9.8
8.0
2.1
1.7
23.1
23.3
3,617
34,698
10,961
12,773
16.3
16.3
120.3
142.5
30.1
25.4
10.0
7.9
36.9
34.7
3.1
2.6
551
650
6,587
5,906
6,856
6.9
7.0
22.3
28.3
24.7
19.5
10.1
7.5
45.2
44.1
1.1
0.9
1,129
15,354
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
37.7
42.6
29.9
26.5
35.7
28.8
129.4
120.1
5.0
4.4
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
107
18,623
5,878
6,799
16.8
17.0
4.2
4.9
25.8
21.8
9.3
7.6
39.3
42.0
3.2
2.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,748
11,555
3,111
2,687
16.9
15.8
100.6
86.1
27.3
31.9
8.3
10.1
33.3
33.8
3.4
3.9
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
565
19,234
5,904
6,905
17.8
18.1
22.6
26.9
25.0
21.0
6.8
5.6
29.9
36.3
3.4
3.0
HUL
Neutral
435
94,004
25,546
29,031
15.2
15.3
14.1
16.1
30.8
27.0
23.5
29.1
84.3
76.7
3.5
3.1
ITC
Accumulate
238
252
186,157
28,955
33,595
35.9
35.7
9.2
10.5
26.0
22.7
8.3
6.8
34.8
33.1
6.1
5.3
Market Outlook
May 07, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
180
11,069
4,669
5,467
13.0
12.9
6.8
8.2
26.6
22.0
7.2
5.7
30.5
28.8
2.4
2.0
Nestle*
Neutral
4,556
43,930
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
119.3
147.9
38.2
30.8
23.4
15.9
73.0
61.6
5.1
4.1
Tata Global
Buy
114
136
7,074
7,011
7,712
9.7
10.0
6.0
7.1
19.2
16.0
1.8
1.7
8.9
10.2
0.9
0.8
HCL Tech
Accumulate
513
560
35,522
22,792
25,743
17.4
17.4
37.8
43.0
13.6
11.9
3.0
2.5
22.3
21.3
1.5
1.3
Hexaware
Neutral
127
3,749
1,821
2,105
19.0
18.6
9.8
10.7
12.9
11.9
3.0
2.6
23.7
22.5
1.8
1.5
Infosys
Accumulate
2,441
2,792
140,178
37,615
42,491
31.1
30.6
158.5
174.5
15.4
14.0
3.5
2.9
22.5
20.8
3.1
2.6
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
167
177
1,862
1,758
1,972
17.0
16.6
16.8
18.6
9.9
9.0
1.4
1.2
13.6
13.2
0.7
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Reduce
104
98
1,853
2,042
2,139
15.2
14.9
9.6
10.9
10.9
9.6
1.9
1.6
19.2
18.0
0.9
0.8
Mahindra Satyam
Buy
75
89
8,879
7,142
8,042
15.4
15.0
7.7
8.3
9.9
9.1
1.4
1.2
13.8
13.0
0.9
0.7
Mindtree
Neutral
581
2,356
2,172
2,450
16.1
15.5
53.9
58.5
10.8
9.9
2.0
1.7
18.9
17.0
0.9
0.7
Mphasis
Accumulate
381
433
8,014
5,904
6,320
18.3
17.9
38.7
41.2
9.9
9.3
1.5
1.3
14.9
13.7
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Buy
43
61
715
1,105
1,200
16.4
16.9
7.5
9.2
5.8
4.7
1.0
0.9
17.6
19.0
0.4
0.2
Persistent
Neutral
377
1,508
1,109
1,224
23.3
22.4
37.2
40.1
10.1
9.4
1.6
1.4
15.4
14.5
1.0
0.9
TCS
Neutral
1,278
250,152
57,189
66,329
29.3
28.7
63.2
70.9
20.2
18.0
6.2
5.0
30.5
27.7
4.1
3.5
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
680
750
8,665
6,030
6,511
16.3
15.7
81.1
87.0
8.4
7.8
1.7
1.4
20.1
18.0
1.4
1.2
Wipro
Neutral
415
102,014
41,918
46,879
19.4
19.9
25.1
28.7
16.6
14.5
3.1
2.7
18.6
18.3
2.1
1.7
D B Corp
Buy
206
274
3,780
1,656
1,869
26.0
26.8
14.0
16.1
14.8
12.8
3.4
2.9
24.8
24.1
2.2
1.9
HT Media
Buy
122
170
2,875
2,255
2,555
17.8
18.3
10.0
12.0
12.3
10.2
1.7
1.5
14.7
15.4
1.0
0.9
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
97
137
3,066
1,499
1,642
27.4
28.8
7.6
9.1
12.7
10.7
4.3
3.8
34.6
37.7
2.0
1.8
PVR
Neutral
148
383
625
732
17.4
16.9
12.4
15.8
11.9
9.4
1.9
2.0
8.5
9.9
0.8
0.7
Sun TV Network
Neutral
289
11,373
2,135
2,458
75.2
74.4
20.9
24.0
13.8
12.0
3.2
2.7
26.0
25.1
4.3
3.5
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
431
9,158
9,232
13,557
30.8
31.1
48.0
58.6
9.0
7.4
1.1
1.0
14.5
7.5
3.1
2.2
Coal India
Accumulate
330
351
208,187
65,654
71,756
26.8
27.3
24.0
26.3
13.7
12.5
3.8
3.1
30.4
27.0
2.2
1.9
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
19
27
663
1,984
2,074
10.6
12.0
2.7
3.3
7.1
5.8
0.4
0.1
5.2
6.2
0.4
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
124
139
52,373
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
8.4
7.5
1.6
1.4
21.2
19.9
2.3
1.7
Hindalco
Buy
116
136
22,209
84,638
88,753
9.6
10.5
15.2
17.3
7.7
6.7
0.6
0.6
8.7
9.2
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
668
14,910
39,161
43,958
17.8
17.9
72.2
89.5
9.3
7.5
0.8
0.8
10.1
11.4
0.6
0.5
MOIL
Neutral
250
4,196
979
1,061
45.7
46.8
24.5
26.6
10.2
9.4
1.6
1.4
16.1
15.8
2.1
1.8
Monnet Ispat
Buy
474
585
3,046
2,986
3,908
22.1
28.9
50.5
83.4
9.4
5.7
1.2
1.0
13.5
19.2
1.9
1.3
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
May 07, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
59
51
15,219
8,276
8,578
12.7
16.4
2.5
3.5
23.3
16.9
1.3
1.2
5.6
7.5
1.4
1.4
172
185
68,193
11,726
12,890
77.8
78.4
18.6
20.6
9.2
8.4
2.2
1.8
26.1
23.8
3.6
3.1
SAIL
Sesa Goa
Accumulate
94
102
38,744
52,461
62,935
18.0
18.8
13.2
14.5
7.1
6.5
0.8
0.8
12.4
12.3
1.1
1.0
Accumulate
181
206
15,713
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
4.1
4.1
0.9
0.7
23.5
19.5
0.3
Sterlite Inds
Buy
101
123
33,976
45,805
49,029
21.2
23.5
16.5
19.1
6.1
5.3
0.7
0.6
11.5
12.0
0.4
0.2
Tata Steel
Buy
434
503
42,107 141,358 142,265
11.1
13.7
45.8
58.9
9.5
7.4
0.9
0.8
10.0
11.7
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Accumulate
333
372
63,527
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.5
6.9
1.1
0.9
18.3
14.8
3.0
2.2
GAIL
Buy
321
392
40,667
50,472
55,503
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
9.1
8.7
1.6
1.4
18.7
17.0
0.5
0.4
ONGC
Buy
260
319
222,015 148,157 150,563
37.6
39.5
31.0
33.6
8.4
7.7
1.5
1.3
18.8
18.1
1.1
1.0
Reliance Industries
Buy
726
872
237,880 325,734 328,669
10.9
11.7
65.8
70.1
11.1
10.4
1.1
1.0
11.9
11.5
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
52
91
986
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
7.9
5.8
1.9
1.5
27.5
29.2
0.8
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
120
175
3,507
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
13.8
14.7
8.7
8.2
1.0
0.5
11.4
10.9
1.0
0.9
Aventis*
Neutral
2,146
4,941
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
22.6
20.6
4.0
3.1
18.6
17.0
3.1
2.7
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
734
1,016
15,027
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
43.3
50.8
17.0
14.5
4.4
3.5
25.4
24.8
2.4
1.9
Cipla
Buy
325
380
26,111
7,006
8,164
20.0
21.2
17.0
19.0
19.1
17.1
3.5
3.0
16.8
18.2
3.7
3.2
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,748
29,632
9,183
10,063
25.7
25.1
92.1
89.9
19.0
19.5
4.1
3.5
22.8
18.8
3.3
3.0
Dishman Pharma
Buy
44
91
354
1,282
1,538
17.9
17.9
10.1
13.0
4.4
3.4
0.4
0.3
8.5
10.1
1.0
0.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,134
18,079
2,788
3,148
35.6
35.2
87.9
96.7
24.3
22.1
7.9
6.6
34.8
32.1
5.7
4.9
Indoco Remedies
Buy
462
665
567
685
837
15.2
15.2
55.5
66.5
8.3
6.9
1.3
1.1
16.4
16.9
1.0
0.9
Ipca labs
Buy
365
443
4,595
2,907
3,541
21.5
21.5
32.7
40.6
11.2
9.0
2.8
2.2
27.8
27.7
1.7
1.4
Lupin
Buy
550
656
24,588
8,272
9,929
19.7
20.0
29.7
32.8
18.5
16.8
4.8
3.7
25.0
22.9
3.0
2.4
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
172
270
1,211
2,143
2,508
21.8
21.8
28.3
38.1
6.1
4.5
1.2
1.0
19.3
23.4
1.5
1.2
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
500
21,097
12,023
12,264
19.9
16.9
41.1
36.9
12.2
13.5
2.6
2.3
30.0
17.6
1.5
1.4
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
601
634
61,872
9,272
11,080
40.3
36.3
26.7
28.8
22.5
20.9
4.6
3.9
22.1
20.8
5.6
4.6
CESC
Buy
254
342
3,177
4,927
5,429
23.8
23.9
41.0
46.2
6.2
5.5
0.6
0.6
10.4
10.7
1.2
1.2
GIPCL
Buy
66
98
1,001
1,557
1,573
28.7
27.5
10.4
10.2
6.4
6.5
0.7
0.6
10.5
9.6
1.1
0.9
NTPC
Buy
155
201
127,722
73,558
84,843
23.4
23.6
12.6
14.1
12.3
11.0
1.6
1.4
13.3
13.6
2.5
2.3
54
78
1,599
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
6.4
4.3
0.4
0.4
6.3
8.9
3.7
2.8
182
30,885
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
19.0
13.6
1.2
1.2
6.4
8.7
5.6
4.6
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
May 07, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
74
115
3,080
2,441
3,344
53.0
46.7
21.4
25.4
3.4
2.9
0.3
0.3
8.4
9.1
3.1
2.4
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
312
118,616
80,967
88,684
33.1
33.4
17.9
22.0
17.5
14.2
2.0
1.8
11.5
12.5
2.1
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
79
26,123
22,558
25,326
26.4
27.5
3.2
4.7
24.5
16.7
1.9
1.7
7.5
10.0
1.6
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
73
15,026
21,899
23,740
32.7
32.7
4.2
6.7
17.2
10.9
0.4
0.4
2.1
3.2
2.1
1.7
188
245
1,870
3,670
4,384
8.5
8.5
18.3
22.3
10.2
8.4
2.3
1.9
23.9
24.3
0.5
0.4
zOthers
Bajaj Electrical
Buy
CRISIL
Neutral
1,006
7,060
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
29.3
25.2
13.3
10.6
50.9
46.9
6.8
5.7
Finolex Cables
Buy
36
60
544
2,341
2,656
8.5
8.8
8.0
10.0
4.5
3.6
0.6
0.6
18.1
20.2
0.2
0.1
Graphite India
Buy
90
116
1,751
2,053
2,437
22.6
22.4
13.5
16.3
6.6
5.5
1.0
0.9
15.4
16.5
1.0
0.8
Greenply
Buy
210
298
507
1,800
2,047
11.1
11.6
34.1
49.6
6.2
4.2
1.1
0.9
20.2
23.7
0.5
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
3,030
3,380
935
1,168
19.6
19.6
99.7
122.2
30.4
24.8
17.6
14.1
64.2
63.1
3.7
2.9
Sintex
Buy
64
129
1,735
5,219
5,912
16.5
16.9
15.8
21.4
4.0
3.0
0.6
0.5
14.7
17.1
0.6
0.5
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
260
439
244
1,045
1,173
12.3
12.4
61.5
73.2
4.2
3.6
0.8
0.7
20.2
20.4
0.5
0.5
SpiceJet
Neutral
28
1,227
5,384
6,443
(1.0)
4.1
(3.4)
2.4
(8.2)
11.6
(11.2)
23.7
0.4
0.4
Taj GVK
Buy
59
116
372
322
355
36.3
35.8
8.3
9.6
7.1
6.2
1.0
0.9
14.5
14.9
1.5
1.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 04, 2012
Market Outlook
May 07, 2012

Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

4QFY2012 Result Reviews Bank of Baroda, Allahabad Bank, IOB,

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

(1.9) (320.1) 16,831

(3.2) (369.7) 11,284

(1.8) (184.6) 10,024

(2.5) (271.7) 10,562

OIL & GAS

FII Derivatives (May 04, 2012)

(1.3) (168.3) 13,038

(0.8) (163.5) 21,086

Net Inflows (May 3, 2012)

Allahabad Bank (CMP: `170 / TP: `194/ Upside: 14.2%)

IOB (CMP: `84 / TP: `104/ Upside: 24.7%)

Corporation Bank (CMP: `385 / TP: `522/ Upside: 35.6%)

Syndicate Bank (CMP: `97 / TP: `128/ Upside: 31.4%)

UCO Bank (CMP: `72 / TP: `67/ Downside: 6.9%)

DB Corp (CMP: `205/ TP: 274 / Upside : 33% )

*Estimates are subject to change post conference call

ITNL (CMP: `175 / TP: `265 / Upside: 52%)

United Bank (CMP: `64 / TP: `87/ Upside: 36.5%)

ITD Cementation 1QCY2012 (CMP `175, TP - `203, Upside: 17%)

P/BV EV/ EBITDA EV/Sales

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

EBITDA margin (%)

GlaxoSmithKline Pharma - (07/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Asian Paints Ltd - Consolidated (08/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Glenmark Pharma Ltd - Consolidated (08/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Hindalco Industries Ltd - (08/05/2012)

IDFC Ltd - (08/05/2012)

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd - Consolidated (08/05/2012)

Economic and Political News

Government plans review of tax treaty with Mauritius

Infy clients mulling contingency plans over visa row: Forrester

May 07, 2012

May 09, 2012

May 10, 2012

May 11, 2012

May 12, 2012

May 13, 2012

May 14, 2012

Mundra Port, JSW Steel , Ashok Leyland, Indraprasth Gas

May 15, 2012

Cummins India, Patel Engg., Dishman Pharma

May 16, 2012

May 17, 2012

Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam

May 18, 2012

May 19, 2012

May 20, 2012

May 21, 2012

Adani Enterp., Adani Power

May 22, 2012

May 08, 2012