Brett Shinn John Masker 2341 USFP 4 May 2012 Assessing Mandelbaums policy predictions The United States

unipolarity in the international spectrum has not been questioned since the end of the Cold War. The United States nominal GDP currently sits at $15 trillion, which trumps the second largest economy, China, by a large margin. According to the IMF, Chinas current nominal GDP is $7.2 trillion. The United States has been in a recession since 2008, after the collapse of the global financial market. The collapse occurred because of a lack of proper regulation and the ineffectiveness of government oversight. Certain decisions, like allowing banks to consolidate debts and bet against them, have caused the dissonance between the government and the public to grow larger. Citizens are tired of the volatile rhetoric in Congress and the lack of important legislation that results from these talks. Because of the unique position the United States finds itself in, the control the country currently has in the international arena could change. Mandelbaums policy prescriptions are likely to come to fruition because of the United States growing debt, the political ramifications of certain foreign policy initiatives, and unanimously panned military actions that will result in the downfall of U.S. supremacy. During the last ten years, the United States has sought to help developing nations by providing them with humanitarian aid. The financial collapse that started with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and spurned the recession that continues today makes it impossible for the United States to continue providing these nations with the same level of aid. This represents a major loss in the United States ability to affect the global

economy. The military protection that the U.S. provided in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo will cease to exist because of the poor spending methods employed by Congress and the President. The process of state building, a result of post-Cold War military interventions, no longer represents a viable option for the United States to explore. During these economically turbulent times, President Obama has twice voted to maintain the current tax rate in order to help families and individuals survive the recession. Any spending that overlaps these revenues represents deficit spending. Deficit spending, the borrowing of money in order to provide services, represents a difficult, but necessary decision. In a state of recession, deficit spending becomes necessary in order to prevent deep cuts in social entitlement programs and defense spending. Mandelbeaum provides a reason for the debt spending in The Frugal Superpower when he states that, Keynes teaches that the government must stimulate or provide directly the consumption that ordinarily comes from firms and individuals. The United States furnished a very large proportion of the worlds total consumption but this came to, an abrupt end when the recession came to pass (Mandelbaum 58). Mandelbaum states that, by the estimate of the CBO, annual deficits might well average more than $1 trillion every year for a full decade after 2009 (Mandelbaum 13). A trillion dollars of debt per year represents a huge amount of debt that may prove insurmountable. U.S. government debt; however, does not represent a new occurrence in the history of this country as Mandelbaum states that, in the forty-seven years before 2008, the federal budget was balanced that is, government income matched or exceeded outlays in only five of them (Mandelbaum 14). As a counter, the fact that debt spending has always been representative of the American way shows that perhaps the United States will regain its momentum and economic power;

however, CBO predictions are not always the most reliable. Mandelbaum predicts that, by the third decade of the twenty-first century the cost to American taxpayers of servicing the national debt is scheduled to exceed the entire defense budget (Mandelbaum 14). The economic downfall stems from two costly wars, expanding entitlement programs, and the lack of proper regulation in the financial markets. Without a serious overhaul on the appropriations for defense, entitlements, and taxes, the United States government could easily falter. The United States political calculations in the last five years have also put a hamper on the aura of respect that United States had in the International community. Political ramifications are the result of any action or foreign policy initiative that could prove to be controversial. Military operations are obvious examples of huge foreign policy actions that have long lasting effects for the nations involved and the world at large; however, new political allegiances, new resolutions, and new sanctions can also have an influential impact on the relationships between nations. Mandelbaum reiterates that the importance of China, Russia, and Iran in U.S. foreign policy decisions cannot be underestimated several times in The Frugal Superpower. These countries represent the greatest threats to American security and global dominance. He ranks the countries in order from most threatening to least threatening. Iran represents the greatest threat, while Russia remains second, and China the least likely to take any action against the United States. The relationship between the United States and China exists solely for the mutual benefits of free trade. Chinas human rights issues and the United States former interventionist stance has led many to criticize the United States for freely trading with such an oppressive regime. Relationships with Russia were steadily improving until Bill

Clinton expanded NATO during his presidency. Clinton decided to approve the expansion of NATO at the objection of Russia. Mandelbaum refers to as this action as a seat-belt policy, meaning that because the United States has a unipolar control of the international scene, they ignored the bequests of less power nations, failing to carefully analyze the actions and the implications of those actions. The U.S. was in a position of strength and instead of treading carefully they managed to operate carelessly, which resulted in a weakened relationship with Russia. The inept handling of the war in Iraq by President George W. Bush represents another example of Mandelbaums seat-belt theory. Before expounding about the Bush regimes reliance on poor intelligence and the mishandling the aftermath of the war that never should have been, one must first reveal the extend of U.S. military action. The military operations in this country are vast and the costs are quite high. Mandelbaum states that at the turn of the century, American special forces operated in no fewer than 125 countries (Mandelbaum 60). There are over 300 countries in the world and the United States has forces operating in nearly a third of them. Mandelbaum shows how the United States overextends itself in economic reach, political reach, and military reach. These are a main reason for the malign economic situation and the failing military operations. The United States decision to invade Iraq was based on fabricated intelligence that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein had obtained Weapons of Mass Destruction. This relates to Robert McNamaras seventh lesson from Vietnam that, The Belief and seeing are both often wrong. The President believed the defense reports published by the Department of Defense that noted the presence of WMDs in Iraq. Obviously, these reports were fabricated and it shows how one should not just believe something without concrete evidence. It is important to note

that Americans were split on the decision to enter the war in Iraq, while other nations were resoundingly against the action. After just three weeks of occupation, the United States succeeded in removing Saddam Hussein from power; however, they failed to realize the implications of these actions on the citizens and insurgents. The United States entered this war without preparing for the responsibility of helping usher in a new regime in Iraq. As Hahn states in Missions Accomplished, the president failed to anticipate, comprehend, or clarify the mission that he would embrace after the military victory (Hahn 205). The Bush administration had to make quick decisions regarding the occupation and almost all of those decisions backfired. The inept decisions were the result of unqualified personal in power, the lack of amble deliberation, and the lack of understanding the cost, both politically and economically, of remaining in the territory for a long period of time. Hastedt asserts that the Bush Administration relied on lessons learned from past wars in the Middle East and mistakenly expected Iraq to operate in the same fashion. Hastedt states that, it was assumed that Saddam Hussein was evil and could not be trusted to change his policies or at a minimum be contained as security threat. Moreover, Saddam Hussein was engaged in an ongoing game of deception and obstruction with UN weapons inspectors (Hastedt 86). Hastedt blames Bush for the failure in Iraq; however, he asserts that some blame rests on the system in which the U.S. assesses problems. The Iraq invasion has resulted in more animosity towards the United States from nations that oppose the Western lifestyle. It is seen as one of great blunders in American military history and one of the main reasons Mandelbaum predicts that the United States global reach will diminish in subsequent years.

Because of the unique position the United States finds itself in, the control the country currently has in the international arena could change. Mandelbaums policy prescriptions are likely to come to fruition because of the United States poor judgment in spending, the political ramifications of certain foreign policy initiatives, and unanimously panned military actions. These problems will become impossible for the United States to control and will result in the downfall of U.S. supremacy and unipolarity.

Works Cited
Hahn, Peter. Missions Accomplished?. New York: Oxford University Press, 2012. Print. Hastedt, Glenn. American Foreign Policy. 8th ed. United States: Longman, 2011. Print. Mandelbaum, Michael. The Frugal Superpower. United States: PublicAffairs, 2010. Print. Morris, Errol, dir. The Fog of War. Sony Pictures Classic, 2003. Film.