Indicators of Economic Activity in Downtown Louisville, 2012

by Paul Coomes, Ph.D. Professor of Economics and Barry Kornstein and Shaheer Burney May 8, 2012

Highlights
At least 64,000 jobs downtown in 2010, down somewhat from 2009. But Louisville still posted the second highest downtown job growth among its peers over the last decade. Leading industries for employment are health care, finance, insurance, professional services, hotel and hospitality. Downtown accounts for 11 percent of all jobs in the Louisville Metropolitan Statistical Area, sixth highest concentration among fifteen peers. LDMD has documented $161 million in downtown investments in 2011. Hotel sales downtown doubled in value over the last ten years, hitting $118 million in 2011, for 921,000 rooms sold. Around 4,000 people live downtown, according to the 2010 Census. This is up from 3,600 in 2000. Downtowns account for less than one percent of residents in the peer metropolitan areas, and Louisvilles downtown accounts for one-third of one percent of Louisville MSA residents. Over 93 percent of households downtown rent instead of own, as housing is dominated by subsidized units. Ownership rate is the lowest among comparison downtowns.

Jobs by Industry in Downtown Louisville, 2010

Health Care and Social Assistance Finance and Insurance Public Administration Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation Information Utilities Management of Companies and Enterprises Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Other Services (excluding Public Administration) Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Construction Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Educational Services Transportation and Warehousing
0 3,970 3,025 2,439 1,167 1,086 934 915 746 685 674 8,032 7,173 13,301 18,265

Total Jobs: 64,200 plus unknown number of federal government employees and selfemployed persons.

60 percent of downtown workers are female. 20 percent of downtown workers are younger than 30 years old..and constant pattern this last decade.

Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal EmploymentHousehold Dynamics, using On the Map tool. Downtown 630 defined as zip code 40202. Program does not measure federal government workers or self-employed persons. People with 593 more than one job downtown are counted twice.
360 230 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Jobs in Downtown Louisville (zip code 40202)

80,000
Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employment-Household Dynamics, using On the Map tool. Program does not measure federal government workers or self-employed persons. People with more than one job downtown are counted twice.

70,000 60,604 60,000 60,879 63,106 62,038

65,550

66,024

68,153

68,030 64,233

All sectors

Overall stability throughout decade.

50,000

40,000

Expect some growth as 2011 and 2012 data are released, due to recovery from recession and impact of arena.
Office sector Health care, education, and government sectors

30,000

20,000

10,000

Manufacturing, distribution, wholesale, retail, construction, utilities

Hospitality sector - hotels, restaurants, arts and entertainment

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Downtown workers live in all 110 zip codes of the 13-county Louisville MSA.

Average annual pay per job downtown is $53,100 versus $37,600 in MSA.

Downtown Jobs, All Industries, 2009 and 2010

Indianapolis Columbus Nashville Richmond Kansas City Cincinnati Birmingham Charlotte Louisville Memphis Raleigh Greensboro Jacksonville Omaha Dayton
0 47,887 41,801 33,747 26,932 25,404 22,181 20,000 40,000 75,054 74,537 70,688 66,361 65,491 64,233 100,496 96,764 144,228

2010 2009
Louisville ranks 9th in jobs among the fifteen comparison downtowns, same as its MSA population rank.

Note: Only Indianapolis, Columbus and Source: US Census Greensboro Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics by posted growth in 2010, presumably program, using OnTheMap software; with downtown geographies defined authors using zip code boundaries. of recession. because
60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Index of Employment Growth in Downtowns 2002 = 100

115

Indianapolis
105

Louisville Greensboro Louisville 2nd highest

95

growth this decade Omaha among peers. Charlotte

Cincinnati Kansas City Nashville Birmingham Richmond Columbus Memphis Jacksonville

85

Raleigh

75

65

Dayton
55
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, using OnTheMap software; with downtown geographies defined by authors using zip code boundaries.

20%

Downtown's Share of MSA Employment, 2002 to 2010

18%

Indianapolis
16%

14%

Birmingham Richmond Nashville

12%

10%

8%

6%

Downtown Louisville hosts 11 percent of all jobs in the metropolitan area.6th highest among peers. Jacksonville least concentrated (4%), Indianapolis most Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, using OnTheMap software; with concentrated (17%). downtown geographies defined by authors using zip code boundaries.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Columbus Louisville Greensboro Charlotte Memphis Kansas City Raleigh Cincinnati Dayton Omaha Jacksonville

4%

2%

0%
2010

Downtown's Share of MSA Jobs and Payrolls, 2009

18%

16%

Louisville well above average in its concentration of activity downtown.

Birmingham

14%

12%

Louisville Indianapolis Nashville Cincinnati

Payrolls

10%

Columbus Richmond

8%

Charlotte Jacksonville Memphis Raleigh Omaha Dayton

Kansas City Greensboro

Most cities have higher concentration of payroll than jobs downtown.

6%

4%

2%

Different data set, revealing pay as well as jobs.

0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

Jobs
Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, using zip code level data to approximate downtown geographies. Employment estimates cover wage and salalry jobs only, exclude self-employed and some government workers.

Fortune 1000 Corporate Headquarters Located in Downtowns

CityState Company Fortune 1000 rank 293 9 173 498 26 25 107 326 456 627 489 794 127 169 433 632 42 540 Revenues (millions) CityState CSX Company Fortune 1000 rank 230 550 765 810 790 939 79 501 322 927 90 153 200 240 373 943 162 Revenues (millions) $10,636 $3,774 $2,423 $2,256 $2,329 $1,815 $33,868 $4,360 $8,073 $1,836 $30,683 $16,965 $12,303 $10,190 5693 $1,797 $15,197

Birmingham, AL Regions Financial Charlotte, NC Bank of America Corp. Duke Energy Ruddick Cincinnati, OH Procter & Gamble Kroger Macy's Fifth Third Bancorp Western & Southern Financial Group Chiquita Brands International American Financial Group Convergys Corp Nationwide Columbus, OH American Electric Power Momentive Specialty Chemicals Huntington Bancshares Indianapolis, IN WellPoint Simon Property Group

$8,220 Jacksonville, FL

$134,194 Kansas City, MO H&R Block $14,272 $4,400 $79,689 $82,189 $25,003 Louisville, KY $7,218 $4,921 Memphis, TN $3,227 $4,497 Nashville, TN $2,203 Omaha, NE $20,265 $14,427 Raleigh, NC $5,174 Richmond, VA $3,187 $58,802 $3,958 AMC Entertainment Great Plains Energy DST Systems Kansas City Southern Humana Kindred Healthcare AutoZone First Horizon National Corp. HCA Union Pacific ConAgra Foods Progress Energy MeadWestvaco Corp New Market Corp Dominion Resources

Source: ReferenceUSA (Infogroup) & Yahoo! Finance, Retrieved Dec. 21, 2011. Dayton and Greensboro each have a Fortune 1000 headquarters, but they are not located downtown.

Two of Louisvilles five Fortune 1000 headquarters are located downtown.

Fortune 1000 Corporate Headquarters, Downtown and Suburbs

16

Suburb F1000
14

Downtown F1000

4
12

3
10

8
5 4 2

3
11 10 11 8 5

6
2

6
4 3

Humana Kindred 1

Brown-Forman 0 3 3 Pharmerica 2 Yum!

Finance & Insurance Downtown Employment, 2010

14,000 13,301

Humana puts Louisville at top

12,132 11,860 11,179

12,000

10,000

9,743

8,391 8,000 7,008

6,000

5,274

5,238 4,679 4,451 3,886

4,000 2,372 2,000 2,262 1,684

Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, using OnTheMap software; with downtown geographies defined by authors using zip code boundaries.

Downtown Hotels by Employment

3,000

Indianapolis
2,500

E m p l 2,000 o y e e 1,500 s

Nashville

Louisville 6th highest in terms of hotel employment

Louisville

Kansas City

Memphis Columbus

Cincinnati
1,000

Richmond Charlotte Omaha Birmingham Raleigh Greensboro

500

Jacksonville Dayton

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Number of establishments Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2009, using Zip Code Statistics, with interpolation inside ranges for employment.

Hotel Room Sales in Downtown Louisville

$140,000,000
922,062 881,240 920,803 900,000 1,000,000

881,573 866,381

$120,000,000
800,000 750,713 721,255

$100,000,000

Value of Rooms Sold

623,900 600,059

645,383

663,199

605,366 603,510 608,918

623,446 606,528 596,257

666,729 638,666 637,423 564,391 560,697

700,000

600,000

500,000

$60,000,000
400,000

$40,000,000

300,000

200,000

$20,000,000
100,000

Source: Louisville Metro Revenue Commission. $0

19901991199219931994 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
0

Rooms Sold

$80,000,000

Hotel Room Sales in Downtown Louisville

$140,000,000
1,000,000

$120,000,000

Over last ten years, room sold rose by 44 percent, and value rose by 98 percent.

922,062 881,240

920,803 900,000

881,573 866,381

750,713 721,255

$100,000,000

Value of Rooms Sold

623,900 600,059

645,383

663,199

605,366 603,510 608,918

623,446 606,528 596,257

666,729 638,666 637,423 564,391 560,697

$118 million in800,000 sales room in 2011, for 700,000 921,000 rooms sold.
600,000

500,000

$60,000,000
400,000

$40,000,000

300,000

200,000

$20,000,000
100,000

Source: Louisville Metro Revenue Commission. $0

19901991199219931994 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
0

Rooms Sold

$80,000,000

Downtown Restaurants and Bars by Employment

7,000

Nashville
6,000

Indianapolis

5,000 E m p 4,000 l o y e 3,000 e s 2,000

Louisville 9th highest in terms of restaurant and bar employment

Louisville

Columbus Richmond Raleigh Charlotte Kansas City Cincinnati

Memphis Omaha Birmingham Dayton Jacksonville Greensboro

1,000

0 0 50 100 150 Number of establishments 200 250 300

Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2009, using Zip Code Statistics, with interpolation inside ranges for employment.

Downtown Museums by Employment

500

E 400 m p l 300 o y e e 200 s

100

LIST OF DOWNTOWN MUSEUMS 1. Frazier History Museum 2. Louisville Slugger Museum 3. Muhammad Ali Museum 4. Louisville Science CenterColumbus Nashville 5. Kentucky Museum of Arts and Craft 6. Louisville Glassworks 7. Thomas Edison House
Omaha Birmingham Raleigh Charlotte

Cincinnati

Louisville
Richmond

Indianapolis

Kansas City

Memphis

0 0 1

Jacksonville Dayton
2 3 4

Greensboro

10

Number of Establishments Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2009, using Zip Code Statistics, with interpolation inside ranges for employment.

Indicators of Downtown Living, 2009

Grocery stores Clothing stores Book stores Florists with at with at least 20 with at least 10 with at least 20 least 5 employees employees employees employees 1 2 0 2 0 0 2 1 2 1 1 0 2 1 1 9 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 3 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 1 Veterinarian offices with at least 5 Dentist offices Employees
1 6 2 3 1

Downtown Birmingham Charlotte Cincinnati Columbus Dayton Greensboro Indianapolis Jacksonville Kansas City Louisville Memphis Nashville Omaha Raleigh Richmond

Dry Cleaners

6 6 16 11 2 32 12 4 8 9

1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 3 1

Indianapolis seems 1 0

to be the leader 2 2
5 0 2 0

0 0 1 1 7 Louisville similar0 to others in terms of grocery stores, but absent clothing 1 4 1 1 35 stores2 0 5 3 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 3 0
1 6 4

10 13

Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2009, zip code statistics.

Hospital, Health Care & Social Services Employment Downtown, 2010

30,000

25,657
25,000

20,000

18,265

Louisville stands out due to downtown hospitals and UL Health Sciences campus.
13,547
11,392 10,808

15,000

10,223

9,925 8,996

10,000

7,774

7,333

5,000

3,092

2,286

1,484

905

391

Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, using OnTheMap software; with downtown geographies defined by authors using zip code boundaries.

Retail & Trade Downtown Employment, 2010

3000 2957 2709

2500 2142 2005 2000 1907

1500 1,297 1,280 1184

Louisville ranks 9th, same as MSA population rank. Note, however, that Birmingham, Raleigh, Richmond have more retail employees downtown even though their MSA population sizes are similar to Louisvilles.
746 669 564 475 431 353 353

1000

500

Source: US Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, using OnTheMap software; with downtown geographies defined by authors using zip code boundaries.

Investments Downtown in 2011 (millions)

U of L School of Dentistry (expansion/renovation) Whiskey Row Lofts (renovation) Norton Cancer Institute Radiation Center Downtown The Kentucky Center for the Performing Arts (renov) U S Attorney's Office Building (USAO) Glassworks Garage Waterfront Park Phase III-Big Four Pedestrian Slope Clay Commons Garage Lincoln Elementary Performing Arts School Downtown Scholar House SoHo Lofts The Villager U S Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE) Spalding Dormitory Suites $8.9 $8.6 $8.1 $8.0 $7.1 $6.6 $6.3 $5.0 $4.2 $4.2 $3.6 $3.0 $18.0 $17.7 $40.6

Total of $161 million 40% medical, educational 26% residential

Creation Gardens
Olympic Apartments (renovation) Main Street (improvements) The Quad Apartments Independence Building (renovation) Cathedral Campus (renovation) The 435 Building (renovation) 0

$2.8
$2.8 $2.5 $1.4 $1.2 $0.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Source: Jim Baines, Louisville Downtown Management District.

Estimated Investments in Downtown over Last Decade ($000)

$450

Source: Jim Baines, Louisville Downtown Management District.

$400

$427.4

$380.6

$350

$300

Public: $911 million Private: $1,173 million

$250 $208.1 $200

$161.0
$150 $106.4 $100 $77.0 $50.7 $50

$168.6 $142.3

$161.0

$100.9

$100.5

$0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Downtown Investments over Last Decade, by Type of Use (millions)

RETAIL RESID, $0.3 RESTAURANT, $3.9 RETAIL, $83.9 THEATER, $8.8 TRANSPORTATION, $4.3

ASSEMBLY, $243.0

Total of $2.1 billion since 2000

EDUCATIONAL, $94.6 HOSPITALITY, $1.3

RESIDENTIAL, $308.6 RELIGIOUS, $8.5

PARKING, $136.4

HOTEL, $283.8

OPEN SPACE, $86.7

OFFICE, $149.8

INFRASTRUCTURE, $120.7

INSTITUTIONAL, $33.8 MFG/WHOL/STGE, $17.4 MUSEUM, $69.2 MEDICAL, $429.3

Source: Jim Baines, Louisville Downtown Management District.

Total Population of Downtown Areas with Houshold and Group Quarters Division Louisville and Peer Cities, 2010
14,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census.
12,489 11,336 11,446 9,758 11,661
3,502 3,191 3,075 3,248

12,000 10,000
8,000 6,000
3,992 5,531

Louisville GQ is mostly jail

6,372
2,406

8,732 7,711
1,743

1,890

6,046
1,054

6,279
2,196

6,423
1,262

6,558

2,523

5,276 6,989 7,868 8,145 8,371 8,413 8,987

4,000
1,678

2,286

2,000 0

1,541
635 906 3,245 2,314

4,992

5,161 4,083 3,966 4,035

2,435

Household Population

Group Quarters Population

Houshold Population, 2010 Downtown Louisville and Peer City Downtowns

10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 6,989
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census.

8,987
7,868 8,145 8,371 8,413

5,000
4,000 3,245 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2,314 2,435 3,966 4,035 4,083

4,992 5,161

906

Percentage of MSA Household Population in the Downtown Area, 2010 Downtown Louisville and Peer City Downtowns
0.70%

Would need to add Decennial Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 20104,071 Census.
0.60%

0.63% 0.63% 0.64%

0.50%

persons in downtown Louisville to get to Richmonds concentration, i.e., need to double the number of downtown residents in Louisville.
0.35%
0.32% 0.28% 0.21% 0.21% 0.37%

0.52% 0.47% 0.40% 0.49%

0.40%

0.30% 0.18% 0.13% 0.10%

0.20%

0.00%

Change in Houshold Population, 2000-10 Downtown Louisville and Peer City Downtowns
6,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Censuses.

5,000

4,987

4,000 3,486

3,000

2,000

Lost about 1,400 people in demolition of Clarksdale housing project, so had to gain 1,800 people to generate this net growth.
226 252 391 406 415 448

1,927 1,443 1,504 1,651

2,052

1,000 16

962

Percentage of Household Population Living in Owned Units, 2010 Downtown Louisville and Peer City Downtowns
50% 45% 40% 35% 30%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census.

43.8% 37.9% 33.7% 29.2% 26.3% 22.3% 21.1% 21.8%

25%
20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Most Louisville downtown residents live in subsidized housing and other apartments.
12.3% 6.5% 13.8% 14.2%

19.2% 14.9% 16.2%

Downtown's Share of Jefferson County

80%

Total private Industry

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%

Office Industries Employment

Hospitality Industries Employment 67.7%

48.3% 43.9% 40.1% 30.0% 18.3% 13.7% 8.3% 0.9% 30.9%

10% 0%

1,800

Number of Business Establishments Downtown & Share of County 2001 to 2009

Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, statistics for zip code 40202.

9%

1,750

9%

9% 1,700
8% 1,650 8% 1,600
1,760 1,739 1,703 1,695 1,646 1,656 1,619 1,584 1,613

8%

1,550

8%

1,500

8%

1,450 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

7%

Business Establishments Downtown

Downtown's Share of County

1,800

Number of Business Establishments Downtown & Share of County 8.9% 2001 to 2009
8.7% 8.6% Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, statistics for zip code 40202.

9%

1,750

9%

9%
8.5%

1,700
8% 1,650
8.3% 8.3% 8.3%

8% 1,600
1,760 1,739 1,703 1,695 1,646 1,656 8.1%

8%
7.9%
1,619 1,584 1,613

1,550

8%

1,500

8%

1,450 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

7%

Business Establishments Downtown

Downtown's Share of County

Downtowns Importance to Governments

Workers in downtown Louisville paid over 18 percent of all local occupational taxes in 2011: $62.3 million to City, County, Schools, TARC budgets Workers in downtown Louisville paid around $162 million in Kentucky income taxes in 2011. If downtown Louisville were a county, it would rank 3rd among Kentuckys 120 counties in terms of taxes paid by workers. Downtown hotels generated $8.2 million in local room taxes, plus $6.6 million in Kentucky hotel sales tax revenues. Hotels in zip code 40202 alone accounted for 13 percent of all hotel sales in Kentucky.

Real estate values in downtown have risen by over $600 million in the last decade, now totaling about $1.5 billion.

Thank you!

Downtown Jobs and Pay per Job, 2009

$80

AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY PER JOB (thousands)

Charlotte

$75

Fewer downtown jobs, higher pay

Jacksonville

$70

Cincinnati

$65

Lots of high paying downtown jobs

Columbus Nashville

Richmond JOBS (thousands)

10 20 30

$60

Memphis

40 $55

Birmingham

50

60

70

80

90

Omaha

Louisville
$50

Kansas City

Fewer downtown jobs, lower pay reflecting smaller city sizes

Greensboro Dayton Raleigh

Louisville close to average in both jobs and pay

Indianapolis

$45

Crosshairs centered on averages (44,400 jobs and $56,100 average pay)

$40

Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, using zip code level data to approximate downtown geographies. Employment estimates cover wage and salalry jobs only, exclude self-employed and some government workers.

Downtown Office and Hospital Activity, 2009

Professional, Financial Scientific, and Management Information Institutions Technical Firms with at Firms with at Hospitals with with at least Service Firms least 10 least 20 at least 100 100 Employees with at least 10 Employees Employees Beds 14 81 7 14 3 19 104 14 20 0 20 200 43 28 0 16 211 28 27 1 Highest concentrations generally in the three largest 3 55 8 8 0 metropolitan areas: Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Kansas City. 3 45 8 5 2 17 179 17 33 4 10 81 9 7 0 19 164 32 42 4 27 122 22 17 5 8 63 5 7 3 7 148 37 39 3 12 38 14 10 0 4 66 4 6 1 10 111 23 8 3

Downtown Birmingham Charlotte Cincinnati Columbus Dayton Greensboro Indianapolis Jacksonville Kansas City Louisville Memphis Nashville Omaha Raleigh Richmond

Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2009, zip code statistics.

Louisville rank:

1st

6th

6th

6th

1st

Non-Institutionalized Population, 2010 Downtown Louisville and Peer City Downtowns

12,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census.

10,997 9,758 8,870 8,901

10,225

10,000
Note: The non-institutionalized population excludes those residing in correctional, juvenile justiice, nursing, or other facilities without freedom of movement, but does include college student housing and shelters.

8,000

7,759

6,000
4,414 4,438 4,000 3,866 5,056

5,539 5,739

6,046

3,087
2,000 1,013 0