CPWF Project Inception Report

CPWF Project Inception Report

Project Title: Assessment of the impact of anticipated external drivers of change on water resources of the coastal zone Project Number: G4 Project Leader: Zahir-ul Haque Khan

For submission to the

Date: 11, 03, 2011

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CPWF Project Inception Report

1.
1.1

Progress made during project inception

Achievements

G4 has considerable achievements in the inception phase of the project: (1) MoU with the Partners: IWM has signed contracts with the partner institutions: IWMI, IWFM-BUET and BWDB. Professionals of the partner institutions are actively involved in project activities such as methodology development, field visits, data collection, preparation of reports and participation in workshops. (2) Selection of the Study Area: G4 has selected the study area which includes the coastal zone of Ganges delta in Bangladesh for analysis of flooding, storm surge and salinity. The detailed analysis on salinity, water availability, storage capacity of drainage khals in the polders, storm surge and drainage congestion will be carried out for specific polders (No. 3, 30 & 43/2F). The study area is shown in Figure 1.

30 3

43/2F

Figure 1: Study area map of G4 (The selected polders are shown in yellow)

(3) Identification of External Drivers: In light of past projects and researches, and through discussions and interactions with the partners a questionnaire for identification of the external drivers has been prepared. The questionnaire has been circulated among experts, stakeholders and peers. The preliminary results of the questionnaire survey show that population growth is the major external driver that will affect water resources in the region. Climate change induced sea level rise, change in water management practices, water sharing practices between riparian countries and water infrastructure development have been 2

CPWF Project Inception Report

identified as other key drivers. Identification of these key external drivers of change is very important for achieving the project goals since the main objective of G4 is to assess the effect of these drivers on water resources in the coastal Ganges basin. (4) Community Consultation: A field visit was conducted in Polder 30 and Polder 3 from 17 to 19 September, 2011 by the members of component G4. The objective of the visit was to conduct community consultation primarily with the farmers and fishermen through Focus Group Discussion (FGD), Key Informant Interview (KII) and other participatory tools to assess the important issues in water resources management and to identify the anticipated external drivers of change. Group discussions and interviews indicate that drainage congestion, polder overtopping (during spring tide) and breaching, availability of fresh water during the dry period, salinity intrusion, absence of an effective institutional arrangement for water management, conflict between gher owners and farmers, pricing and distribution of fertilizers and depletion of natural fish are the major problems in the area. Other observations indicate that population growth, encroachment of drainage canals, leasing of the khals, reduction in freshwater flow due to upstream interventions, sedimentation of river beds, destruction of natural fish habitats have caused these problems. These findings along with those from the questionnaire survey will enable G4 to identify and prioritize external drivers of change.

Figure 2: Focus Group Discussions in polder 30 and 3 (5) Survey and Data Collection: A comprehensive plan has been prepared for surveying the existing polders, regulators, land level, land use, khal cross-sections, water level, water flow and salinity in the 3

CPWF Project Inception Report

selected polders (No. 3, 30 & 43/2F). The survey team has started primary data collection at six water flow stations, twelve water level stations and fifteen salinity stations in addition to collection of data on crosssections of khals and embankments, topography, land-use, regulators and unauthorized structures. Some sample plots of these data are shown in Figure 3. From the figures it is evident that river salinity drops considerably during June/July which is suitable for agriculture.

Figure 3: Measured salinity in rivers near polder 3 and 30 This survey will enable G4 modeling team to setup a detailed model of the selected polders. Moreover, G4 has also started data collection from secondary sources. These primary and secondary data will be used for establishment of baseline condition, and development and calibration of the models.

1.2

Bottlenecks

The main challenge of the project is to make available water resources data, land use and demographic data from the Indian part of the Ganges basin as well as to know the future water resources plan. It is immensely difficult to assess the effects in the study area due to the changes of the external drivers in the upstream basin. However, the published data for the Indian part will be used to assess effect of changes in the upstream basin. IWMI, a partner of G4, will provide available data on water flow, rainfall, water-use, land-use, population, water plans and policies in the upstream region of the Ganges basin in present and future condition. Moreover, a relevant consultant will be appointed for the purpose.

1.3

Insights and learning

Introduction With increasing pressure from population growth, industrialization and in a changing climate, it is more important than ever to assess the availability and productivity of water for agriculture and aquaculture system in Bangladesh, especially in the Ganges basin since this basin is the area of multiple problems and opportunities. The quantity of freshwater available is likely to decrease due to a combination of external drivers, including population increase, water pollution, inadequate planning and management of transboundary waters, climate change and inefficient operation of water management projects. Consequently, there is an increasing potential for water scarcity, crisis and associated conflicts in the future. It is also imperative that precious and vulnerable locations increase their resilience to changing conditions. Methodology Selection of External Drivers: The problems related to water crisis and conflicts are numerous, complicated and challenging. Efforts to effectively resolve these problems require a clear vision of the future water availability and demand as well as new ways of thinking, developing and implementing water planning and 4

CPWF Project Inception Report

management practices. The hydrologic system in the coastal regions of Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to the impact of external drivers. The performance of the system varies seasonally, annually and especially during the occurrence of extreme events. The project is developing a comprehensive list of external drivers based on past researches, literature review, and interaction with the peers and major stakeholders. The external drivers will be identified and prioritized through a questionnaire survey among the experts, stakeholders and peer groups. The questionnaire will be developed based on literature review and preliminary field information. Survey results will be triangulated with information obtained from the selected study areas through community consultation and key informant interviews. Modelling: The present research program attempts to offer a comprehensive account of the above issues and also to achieve the stipulated outcomes to contribute to GBDC. The effects of anticipated changes due to external drivers on flooding, submergence, sedimentation, salinity intrusion and water availability in the different polders of the coastal zone are going to be assessed using available water flow, salinity models based on MIKE series. The effect of storm surges of varying intensities and frequencies on polder overtopping and inundation will be assessed using the Bay of Bengal model based on MIKE 21. These models will be utilized to simulate the baseline and projected conditions in 2020, 2030 and 2050. The study will be conducted at the regional level for the coastal regions of Bangladesh as well as in three selected polders (Polder No.3, 30 & 43/2f. Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models will be used for assessing the impacts of land-use changes on flow. Approach and Techniques: It is now well recognized that the existing adaptation strategies are inadequate to cope up with the enhanced magnitude and increased frequency of the impacts of the anticipated changes. Based on the resilience and the anticipated impacts different adaptation strategies will be devised such as improvement of drainage canals, operation of sluices, strengthening of embankments, dredging, and restoration of dry season freshwater flow for flushing salinity as well as restoration of the ecosystem. Specific adaptation strategies for choice and selection of the crops/aquaculture during different seasons and their salinity and submergence tolerance will be developed in consultation with G2. Collaboration will be developed with G3 and G5 projects for information on community/ institutional management of the resources and the operation of the water infrastructure and its governance at the polder level. For establishing future projections of climate change statistical downscaling will be applied. Statistical downscaling, on the other hand, provides an easy to apply and much rapid method for developing high resolution climate change surfaces for high resolution regional climate change impact assessment studies. Statistical downscaling is analogous to the model output statistics (MOS) and perfect prog approaches used for shortrange numerical weather prediction. Figure 1 shows a schematic illustrating the general approach to downscaling. In situations where lowcost, rapid assessments of localized climate change impacts are required, statistical downscaling (currently) represents the more promising option. In this context, statistical downscaling will be conducted in this study to developed climate change scenarios.

CPWF Project Inception Report

Figure 4: A schematic illustrating the general approach to downscaling. Currently, more than a dozen centers around the world develop climate models to enhance our understanding of climate and climate change and to support the IPCC activities (IPCC, 2001, 2007). There are marked differences between different models, based on the selection of numerical methods employed, the spatial resolution of the simulation, and the subgrid-scale parameters (IPCC, 2001 2007; Govindan et al., 2002), and due to that, any researcher would desire to use all climate models and assess uncertainties rather than selecting a subset of GCMs. It is essential to generate climate change information for the study area using a number of GCMs and using a number of driving SRES scenarios. Among the 24GCMs, sever of GCMs are widely used for impact studies which are listed in Table-1 will be used for this study. Two extreme scenarios (A2 and B2) and one moderate scenario A1B will be used to develop climatic information for the study area. Table 1: List of GCMs and principal characteristic Model Country Resolution Reference CCCMA-CGCM3.1 (T47) Canada T47 (3.75x3.75), L31 Scinocca et al. (2008 ) CSIRO-Mk3.0 Australia T63, L18 Gordon et al. (2002 ) IPSL-CM4 France 2.5x3.75, L19 Marti et al. (2005 ) MPI-ECHAM5 Germany T63, L32 Jungclaus et al. (2005 ) NCAR-CCSM3.0 USA T85L26, Collins et al. (2005 ) UKMO-HADCM3 UK 3.75x2.5, L19 Gordon et al. (2002 ) Climate change scenarios will be generated for 25km spatial gird for the following 4 climatic variables1. Annual maximum temperature 2. Annual mean temperature 3. Annual minimum temperature 4. Annual total precipitation 6

CPWF Project Inception Report

Using the full present day (20C3M) monthly time series, 30 year running means around 1985 (1961-1990) will be calculated as a baseline, for each of the GCMs and the 4 variables of interest. Then 30 year running means were calculated for each of the emission scenarios and for the four periods, so that the complete time series were reduced to 4 different 30 year averaged periods, as follows: 1. 1961-1990: The baseline climate, also referred as current climates 2. 2010-2039, referred as 2020s 3. 2040-2069, referred as 2050s 4. 2070-2099, referred as 2080s This mean monthly present day and future climate changes will be used for further impact study. G4 researchers will employ Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the water balances at different reaches of the catchment and generate scenarios on the impact of future land use changes. SWAT is a process-based continuous hydrological model that predicts the impact of land management practices on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions. The hydrological cycle as simulated by SWAT is based on the water balance equation:

where SWt is the final soil water content (mm); SWo is the initial soil water content (mm); T is time (days); Rday is the amount of precipitation on day i (mm); Qsurf is the amount of surface runoff on day i (mm); Ea is the amount of evapotranspiration on day i (mm); Wseep is the amount of percolation on day i (mm); and Qgw is the amount of return flow on day i (mm). IWMI already has some previous experiences in modeling some of the sub-basin in Ganges: Gorai sub-basin in Bangladesh (in the area of interest of the Project), Upper-Ganga sub-basin in India and Koshi sub-basin in Nepal. In case of the good data availability for calibration and validation, we may set up the model for the entire sub-basin so as to work out the cross-boundary flow regimes etc. In the more realistic scenario, we may model only the GDA area in Bangladesh or the Gorai sub-basin in Bangladesh (the area of interest for the Project). IWMI will greatly count on IWM for having access to the data through its own database and those available through the project partners (BWDB, BUET). This study assesses how demographic changes and economic growth influence food demand, land use patterns and water demand at the sub-national level in Bangladesh. It is well established that demographic changes and economic growth are two major drivers of changing food consumption patterns (Blisard et al 2001, Abdulai and Sharma 1999). And the resulting food demand combined with the goals of food and livelihood securities are then major drivers of land use patterns and water demand. In Bangladesh, food grains provided 83% of the daily calorie supply per person in 2007, compared to 85% in 1990. With low base of calorie intake, the consumption and the calorie supply of food grains themselves have been increasing, at about 0.6% annually since mid 1970ss. But, the consumption of fruits and vegetables and animal products are growing at 3.9 and 0.8% and 1.1% annually and the consumption of milk is growing at 1.1% respectively. How will economic and population growth will influence these key food demand indicators in the country in general and sub-national level in particular are important for water futures assessment. The output shall provide: a brief overview of the study area, the analytical framework and the data, the spatial and temporal variation of food and water consumption patterns, food and consumptive water use 7

CPWF Project Inception Report

projection ate the district level and the implications of changing demand on the water supply of the coastal districts of Bangladesh.

Nutritional intake (calorie supply) from food grains, nonfood grain cops and animal products

Economic growth/ income increase and demographic change

Projections of calorie supply from food grains, nongrain crops and animal products

Composition of food grains, nonfoodgrain crops and animal products consumption

Economic growth/ income increase and demographic change

Projections of consumption of food grains, non-grain crops and animal products

Current land and use consumptive water use of food grains and non-food grain crops

Marginal increase in land and water productivity

Projections of land use and consumptive water demand

Comparison with water availability at subnational level

Figure 5. Framework for assessing consumptive water use demand First, the current spatial patterns of nutritional (calorie) intake from food grains, non-food grains and animal products are assessed. Their linkages with demographic and income patterns are examined using a simultaneous equation econometric model (equation 1-3). Next based on future growth of population and income and elasticity estimates of equation (1-3), future intake of calorie supply from food grains, non-food grains and animal products are projected. ( ) 8

CPWF Project Inception Report

Where Cal_fg, Cal_nfg, Cal_ap are per capita calorie supply from food grains, non-food grains and animal products respectively; Gdp and % Rpop are Gross domestic product per person and percentage of rural population; p_fg, p_nfg, p_ap are the price indices of foodgrain, non-foodgrain and animal products; and subscripts i and t varies over districts and time. Second, the current composition of consumption in food grains, non-foodgrain crops and animal products are assessed (equation 4-6). These then combined with economic and population growth and future calorie intakes would project the quantity of foodgrain and other crops demand.
( ( ( ) ) )

Where Con_fgcr, Con_nfgcr, Con_ap are the per capita consumption of food grain, crops, non-food grain crops, and animal products. The subscripts I, j, t vary over districts, crops or animal products, and time. Lessons Learned During inception phase lessons learning are quite exciting and useful for the project activities. It is learned that only one crop i.e. transplanted aman was grown in the pre-polder conditions and in the post-polder conditions rabi crops like vegetable, oilseeds and boro (limited area) are grown along with aman crops. The water-logging problem is severe in the polders and reduces the crop production about 10-12 kg per 50 decimal. The land level inside the polder has been and continues to decrease due to subsidence. Rivers and canals are silting up, regulator for water management are inadequate. During normal high tide water level reaches the embankment crest level and polders are over topped during cyclonic surges. River sedimentation is significant and likely to increase in future. Water requirement is different at different area of the polder that needs water management through sub-polder system for high and low land. Currently river water becomes saline in November which was the case in December in few years back. During rabi season about 8000 ha of land remains fallow in this region. Conflicts appear to exist between more influential gher owners and farmers rearding water and land management. There is a lack of effective institutional arrangement that can address water requirement for both agriculture and ghers.

1.4

Partnerships

Lead Institution: Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) provides worldclass services in the field of Water Modelling, Computational Hydraulics & Allied Sciences for improved Integrated Water Resources Management. It is a unique organization in the region having sustainable technological capability in developing mathematical models that cover a wide range of water related aspects such as: irrigation and drainage management, water resources management, salinity intrusion, tidal river management, coast and estuary management, environmental impact assessment, Impact Assessment of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise on coastal environment and coastal infrastructure development, flooding, water-logging. IWM has been maintaining models for Bay of Bengal, regional models and Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basin model since 1986. IWM will lead G4 in assessment of the impact of anticipated external drivers of change on water resources of the coastal zone of the Ganges delta. IWM will utilise its wide experience in the field of water resources and modelling technology to achieve the following milestones: Selection and finalisation of the key external drivers of change that influence water resources in the coastal region of the Ganges basin and scenario generation; Collection and analysis of required data from primary and secondary sources; Development, calibration and validation of GBM basin model, SWRM and BoB model; 9

CPWF Project Inception Report

Assessment of water flow in baseline condition and for external drivers in coastal region of the Ganges river (southwest region of Bangladesh); Development and calibration of suitable models for assessing flooding, drainage congestion, water flow, salinity and storm surge; Generation of surface water salinity zoning map in coastal region of the Ganges river for baseline condition and external drivers (southwest region of Bangladesh); Generation of storm surge risk map in coastal region of the Ganges river for baseline condition and external drivers; Development, calibration and validation of detailed drainage and morphological model for polders 3,31, and 43/2F; Generation of inundation depth-duration map for the selected polders in baseline condition and for external drivers; Assessment of sedimentation pattern in the peripheral rivers and khals for selected polders in baseline condition; Devising improvement measures & adaptation plan in the coastal Ganges basin. Writing reports and participation in the workshops.

Partner Institution 1: International Water Management Institute (IWMI) The International Water Management Institute (IWMI) has been a lead actor and a major player in water management research in the Indus-Ganges Basin, with the goal of contributing to the vision of A Food Secure World for All. IWMIs research is organized around four themes: Water Availability and Access; Productive Water Use; Water Quality, Health and Environment; and Water and Society. IWMI has implemented and contributed to successful projects including CPWF phase 1 projects. As per the milestone plan of the project, IWMIs contributions have been listed under: Calibrated and validated SWAT and WEAP models for Ganges basin covering India and Bangladesh; Estimate the effect of change and population growth on water resources; Assessed cross-boundary flow in the baseline condition and for external drivers. IWMI will also assist IWM in Selection and finalisation of the key external drivers of change that influence water resources in the coastal region of the Ganges basin and scenario generation; Development of strategic water management plan for the coastal areas of Bangladesh (in view of the results, analysis of all the external drivers); Writing reports and participation in the workshops. Partner Institution 2: Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) The Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) of Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) is a premier institute for the advancement of knowledge and development of human resources in water and flood management. As the leading knowledge institute in the field of water resources in Bangladesh, IWFM-BUET will contribute in the following way: Providing a literature review report relevant to this project; Downscaling of climate change data from RCMs, projecting climate change condition for future scenarios and providing technical inputs regarding this data and its use within the project; 10

CPWF Project Inception Report

Selection and finalisation of the key external drivers of change that influence water resources in the coastal region of the Ganges basin and scenario generation; Writing reports and participation in the workshops; Active participation in upscaling and downscaling of the research results and outputs.

Partner Institution 3: Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) BWDB, a government institution under the Ministry of Water Resources, is a major stakeholder for water management and governance in Bangladesh. BWDB has Knowledge on agriculture, water governance water and crop management, policies and strategies. As per the contract, BWDB will: Provide historical data on water flow, rainfall, water level, salinity data in the Ganges basin and ensure technical inputs and support regarding this data and its use within the project; Actively participate in selecting and finalizing external drivers of change that influences water resources in the coastal region of the Ganges basin; Prepare a plan for improvement of khal system, sluices and embankments; Actively participate in upscaling and downscaling of the research results and outputs.

1.5

Other feedback

The CPWF provides an innovative approach to carry out research projects. We find innovation in outcome logic model, Gantt chart and involvement of multi disciplines. GBDC research is outcome based and its success needs proper integration of all projects i.e. G1 to G5 as well as proper up-scaling and down-scaling. This project provides ample opportunities to interact with other experts in home and abroad and to share knowledge, experience and technologies. The bi-monthly meeting is an effective tool to review the progress and sharing the information and data and methodology. It is also important to review the technical aspects of the works of all projects (G1-G4) in the perspective of GBDC outcomes and providing guidance to do it. To us the approach of this research is innovative, new, effective, and thought provoking and we expect support and guidance from CPWF.

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CPWF Project Inception Report

2.

Compliance with contracting requirements

Where to find it Annex 1 to this report Updated and / or annexed? Yes, updated

Documents required to finalize contracting requirements and for next tranche payment
1. Updated proposal reflecting changes negotiated with partners during the inception period (if any) and cover note explaining what has changed 2. Updated Project Workbook reflecting changes negotiated during the inception period:

Annex 2 to this report Ditto Ditto Ditto Ditto Ditto Ditto

Yes, updated Yes, updated Yes, improved No No No Yes, updated

Completed contact sheet

Updated outcome logic model Milestone plan developed for the duration of the project with particular emphasis on the next year) Baseline plan, outcome targets and outcome indicators for projects main two outcomes Updated Gantt Chart Updated budget worksheets (CPWF will not increase your budget; all changes beyond moving 5k must explained and justified as comments in the respective budget worksheets and in the financial report below) 3. Signed MOUs corresponding to your proposal 4. Third Party Intellectual asset audit

Annex 3 to this report Annex 4 to this report

No No

3.

Needs from the CPWF

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CPWF Project Inception Report

4.
4.1

Financial management
Summary financial report
Time1 2011
(From May 25 to Sep 30)

Please fill in the table below to report on project cash flow to date
2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Completion Report and Final Audit for project closure

Inception Report

Progress Report

1 Annual Report

2 Annual Report US$

Progress Report

(thousands of $US) Value of tranche payment received this report period Value of tranche payments received to date Value of expenditures for report period Accumulative value of expenditures to date Balance held against cumulative tranche payments Value of committed funds

US$ 138,511

US$

US$

US$

Progress Report US$

US$

138,511

55,761

55,761

82,750

94,131

Explanation:
The expenditure has been calculated from May 25 to September 30, 2011. The MoUs with IWMI and IWFMBUET have been signed recently. However, their payments due at the signing of MoUs have not been made yet since IWM is waiting for invoices from them. The potential expenditure for the months of October and November is listed below: Payment to IWFM-BUET: Payment to IWFM-BUET: Participation in IFWF3: Personnel remuneration and field visits: Total 12,040 USD 34,627 USD 11,250 USD 36,214 USD 94,131 USD

Adjust the dates to fit with our contract period

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CPWF Project Inception Report I certify that the summary financial report is correct Chief financial officer: Iftakher Ahmed Date: 20 Oct, 2011

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CPWF Project Inception Report 4.2 Project leaders commentary on the summary financial report
Amount USD Expected date of expenditure

Please explain any significant commitments currently being held

Commitment is held against payment to which partners or providers?

IWMI IWFM-BUET

12,040 34,627

October, 2011 October, 2011

If you are over-spent / under-spent please explain why or any aspect of the financial progress of your project that has or will affect progress:
The expenditure is in line with the CPWF six-monthly payment. The financial aspects of the project did not and will not affect progress of the research activities.

If you had moved budgets across line items please explain why:

Any other comments about financial aspects of your project, and any advice you would like to receive:
The financial records of the project receipts and expenditures are being maintained. We would like to seek advice from CPWF for keeping the financial records.

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CPWF Project Inception Report

5. Annexes
Annexes as separate attachments to the main report

Annex 1: Updated Project Proposal Annex 2: Updated Workbook and Worksheets Annex 3: MOUs signed with project partners Annex 4: Third Party Intellectual Audit

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