Chazare Riley POLS 4520 Marietta 4 May 2012

2012 Election Prediction

I believe Barack Obama will be re-elected for another term in this years presidential election. Im assuming his republican opponent will be Mitt Romney since he has a significant lead in the primaries, which should be ending relatively soon. Ill break down my reasons for my prediction by outlining the advantages and disadvantages both men have in terms of their personal and professional lives as well as public opinion. Obamas victory wont be as easy and clear-cut as it was in the 2008 election since Romney is a more formidable opponent than McCain had been. Because Obamas advantages outweigh Romneys and Romneys disadvantages outweigh Obamas, November 2012 will see Obama as president once more.

Obama Advantages
Obama is the incumbent, so his name has been out in popular culture for at least the last four years. His is a name people should immediately recognize, and that alone will get him votes. Being an incumbent is also a major advantage if the public is satisfied with his performance in his current term. It all depends on what people know and what they are hearing. The informed voters have an idea of how well Obama performed in

office, and if they support the decisions he made they will share those feelings with others, and they may be the only source for information some people come across. Obama will be credited with all the good things that happened throughout his term. Osama Bin Ladens death as well as the end of the war will be major pluses. Those that are benefiting from Obama Care will appreciate the passing of this legislation during his term. The fact that young people can stay on their parents insurance longer is a benefit that wont go unnoticed, and it could help Obama keep some of his younger constituents. Obama has the social media on his side. I follow him on Twitter along with over 15 million other people, and Michelle has an account as well. When Im on YouTube I see their advertisements on the side of the screen, and I know hundreds of millions of people are seeing the same thing. I also see Ron Paul promotions, but he wont make it passed the primaries. Obama has had the jump on any candidate when it comes to advertisement because he was basically running for reelection already when he won in 2008, so he has the billboards, apparel, television, radio and other classic ways of promotion already queued up. Heuristically speaking, Obama is an all-around good candidate, and Romneys administration will have a hard time making Obama look bad on a personal level, but this will be much easier for the Obama administration to do to Romney. Romney and his administration can criticize Obama on legislative decisions that the common person probably wont understand, which makes the attempt at humiliation a failed one. Obama also has the nice family and a good public image. He is scandal free.

Romney Advantages
Ultimately Romney will have the Republican vote. Most of the people that dropped out of the primaries will back him just because he is a Republican. The most common thing the average voters base their choice on is partisanship, so the millions of people that just want to elect a Republican will choose Romney. Hell also get the conservative independents and those who dont go by party but were unsatisfied with the Obama administration in the last term. Romney is a businessman, and he has a positive reputation for going in and fixing a dying business. This is a major bonus for him because the United States is still in a time where the economy is one of the foremost concerns. Even though the president has little to no control over the economy, it is still something that the American people associate with that office. Romney also has the presidential look. He is an attractive, clean-cut, older white man with a good-looking family. This will be displayed in media for all to see.

Obama Disadvantages
Constituents dissatisfied with what Obama did in his first term may not be willing to give him another chance. The overwhelming youth vote that he brought out the first time most likely wont come out again. People who did not see the change they were expecting may go to the other side, or they might not vote at all. Obama wont get away with empty promises this time. The interested public wants to hear specific things that Obama will do if he is reelected.

Obama is black. Racism still exists, and it is no secret that the most powerful people in the United States are a part of the majority. That doesnt mean that they are racist, but they might prefer that someone that looks like them hold the most important office in our government. There is this misconception that the black vote is what got him elected, but it was the democratic vote. The people wanted change, and that is what Obama was meant to provide.

Romney Disadvantages
Although America is a nation where we are free to choose the religion we practice, constituents are uncomfortable with the fact that Romney is a Mormon. This discomfort mostly stems from the fact that most people dont understand the Mormon religion and its practices, and it is unlikely that the people will make any real effort to understand it. Romneys grandfather actual lived on a compound and practiced polygamy, and this information will not help his case because that isnt a family member that is far removed from him. Heuristically speaking Romney aint us. He is incredibly rich, and unconsciously, he carries himself as such. Romney is not publicly displaced from his wealth. The Obama administration will undoubtedly exploit this as much as they can. There are a couple of video clips that will get this point across to the public for those who havent already seen the instances with the bet and the Nascar comment. The one percent may be able to relate, but the majority of voters wont be able to relate to Romney or see themselves having a beer with him, which is actually important.

Conclusion
I predict Obamas victory, but anything is possible. The media has already had a field day with the primaries, and it will only get worse with the actual presidential election. There will be mud slinging on both sides, ands I am sure there are plenty more advantages and disadvantages for both candidates, but I think Obama will ultimately have more advantages and less disadvantages than Romney. Hell raise more money, have better advertising, and he wont be involved in anything scandalous. Romney will be a more difficult opponent then McCain, but this elections outcome will be the same as four years ago.