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Are We Losing the War on Hunger?
Despite 39 billion for the poor, 24 million didnt eat
By Ricardo Saludo
GRUMBLING STOMACHS
Hunger Incidence in the Philippines, July 1998-March 2012
Total Hunger
(Ave. 1998-2012 = 14.3%)
Moderate
(Ave. 1998-2012 = 10.8%)
Severe
(Ave. 1998-2012 = 3.5%)
%

o
f

h
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
20
15
10
5
1998 2001 2004 2010 2012
ESTRADA ARROYO AQUINO
23.8%
18.0%
5.8%
STRATEGY POINTS
Despite tens of billions of pesos in monthly stipends for the poor, hunger has risen in all
quarters but one since September 2010.
Clearly, cash aid cannot adequately address all the facets of the hunger problem, from food
supply and prices to jobs and income.
Even in direct family aid, the complex characteristics of every needy household require
multi-pronged measures, not just CCT.
Graphic based on Social Weather Stations chart
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:NKcenSEI8KVUXZ - May 14-20, 2012
Are we losing the war on hunger
B
ack in January, Secretary Corazon
Soliman of the Department of Social
Welfare and Development (DSWD)
downplayed the Social Weather Stations
(SWS) hunger survey conducted last
December. Hunger incidence rose for
two quarters in a row to 22.5%, or more
LIun zz mIIIIon IIIpInos II exLrupoIuLed
nationwide. But Soliman noted that the
rise was just one percentage point from the
previous survey last September, while self-
rated poverty (SRP) fell by seven points in
an accompanying SWS poverty report.
The hunger rate did not really move,
the DSWD head told a media forum.
There are more people who thought that
they are not poor [55%]. According to
Mahar [Mangahas, SWS president], its the
biggest drop [in self-rated poverty] for the
IusL hve yeurs. PeopIe busIcuIIy LIInk LIeIr
life is improving.
Deputy Presidential Spokesperson Abigail
Valte repeated Secretary Solimans line
at the time: ... self-rated hunger was
statistically identical to the results of
the September 2011 survey. Combined
with the noticeable decrease in self-rated
poverty from 52 to 45 percent based on
the SWS fourth quarter survey (December
-;, zo11), LIIs IndIcuLes LIuL poIIcIes Lo
promote inclusive growth are beginning to
take effect.
That was January. Last week Soliman
wus uguIn IuvIng Lo expIuIn another
surge to a new peak in SWS hunger data
compiled on March 10-13. The percentage
of respondents saying they missed at least
one meuI In LIe hrsL quurLer oI LIe yeur IIL
a record 23.8%, equivalent to 4.8 million
families or about 24 million people.
Also at an all-time high since the
Iunger surveys begun In JuIy 1qq8 wus
the number of Filipinos suffering severe
hunger. Those frequently missing meals
numbered .q mIIIIon In LIe hrsL quurLer
of the year: 5.8% of households and
equivalent to almost half the population
of Metro Manila. (The highest incidence
oI severe Iunger wus 6% buck In MurcI
zoo1, buL LIuL wus equIvuIenL Lo q.6 mIIIIon
people then.)
Overall hunger incidence was slightly
higher than the previous peak reached
amid the rice crisis in December 2008. And
while last December, self-rated poverty
dropped even if hunger rose, this time the
MurcI hgure jumped by ten percentage
poInLs Lo %. TIuL`s q.q mIIIIon more
Filipinos saying they are poor. Most
worrisome, after dropping in September
2010, hunger incidence has risen in every
SWS quarterly survey under the Aquino
udmInIsLruLIon, excepL IusL June, despILe
the tens of billions of pesos in monthly
sLIpends Ior LIe poor under LIe expunded
conditional cash transfer
program (CCT).
From AHMP to CCT. When hunger
spiked in March last year, President
Benigno Aquino III questioned SWS
data, drawing uk Irom IeILIsLs und LIe
opposition. He claimed that the poll failed
Lo reecL supposed job growLI (In IucL
unemployment increased in January 2011)
und expunded CCT. SInce LIen, Iowever,
the President has been silent about SWS
hunger reports, including the last two,
released around the start of Chief Justice
Renato Coronas impeachment trial
in January, and when it resumed
last week.
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Left to comment again were Secretary
Soliman and spokesperson Valte. Soliman
LexLed TIe PIIIIppIne SLur that rising oil
prices in Metro Manila and calamities
in Mindanao in January might be the
culprits. Palace spokesperson Valte also
LexLed medIu that DSWD is intensifying
our supplementary feeding program and
expundIng LIe qPs Pantawid Pamilyang
Pilipino Program conditional cash
transfers, repeating her line about the
December survey.
Indeed, CCT has become the Aquino
administrations stock response to hunger
surges. L now gIves poor IumIIIes - z.q
million by DSWDs count P1,400 monthly
sLIpend eucI II LIey IuIhII condILIons
on maternal and family health care
and child education. PIIoLed In zoo; by
then-President Gloria Arroyo with full
implementation starting the following year,
the program has grown nearly tenfold from
321,010 targeted households in 2008 to this
years 3 million families at a cost of some
P6o bIIIIon LIIs yeur und IusL.
That single program has largely replaced
Arroyos multi-pronged Accelerated
Hunger Mitigation Program (AHMP).
uuncIed In zoo6 und Iocused on poor
Metro Manila barangays and the most
food-poor provinces in the Food Insecurity
and Vulnerability Information Mapping
System framework (FIVIMS), the AHMP
combined such initiatives as Food for School
rice aid and feeding programs, Tindahan
NuLIn subsIdIzed sLores, mIcrohnunce und
short-term work, vocational training, and
agricultural production and
transport boosts, including
backyard vegetable gardens.
Just a week into the Aquino
administration in July 2010,
Secretary Soliman announced
a review of the Food for School
program, citing anecdotal
evidence and independent
studies of alleged leakages.
n ILs zoo; report on FSP
and Tindahan Natin, the
Philippine Institute of
Development Studies (PIDS),
under the National Economic
and Development Authority,
esLImuLed LIuL zq%-6z% oI
subsidized or free rice for the very poor were
sold or distributed to other households.
By the second week of the new
government, Secretary Soliman said
FSP and Tindahan Natin would be
scrapped and replaced with targeted rice
subsidies and CCT. Budget Secretary
IorencIo Abud quIckIy cIurIhed that FSP
would be redesigned, not junked, while
Education Secretary Armin Luistro said in
August 2010 his department may revive
the program.

CCT recipients in World Bank video: But they want jobs more YouTube
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That same month, however, President
AquIno uIhrmed LIe scruppIng. HIs
message on the proposed 2011 budget said,
we terminated and cut programs, such
as the Department of Educations Food
for School Program, which can be better
administered by the DSWD by means of
LIe proper LurgeLIng und IdenLIhcuLIon oI
benehcIurIes. BenehcIurIes ure cIosen
based on the DSWDs National Household
Targeting System for Poverty Reduction.
NHTS wus sLurLed In zooq uL u cosL oI
more than P1 billion, and had compiled a
database covering 1o,o;8,zz IouseIoIds us
of April last year.
6WLSHQGVJURZEXWVRGRHVKXQJHU
However, the continued rise in hunger after
nearly two years of boosting CCT cannot
but raise doubts about its effectiveness in
hIIIng sLomucIs. rom 1.q% oI IumIIIes In
the third quarter of 2010, hunger incidence
added nearly eight percentage points over
LIe nexL sIx quurLers, droppIng onIy In
mid-2011. Based on the latest population
esLImuLe oI qq mIIIIon IusL yeur, LIe surge
In Iunger umounLs Lo ;.q mIIIIon IIIpInos
added to food-deprived ranks 1.23 million
more grumbling stomachs every quarter or
400,000 more a month, on average.
CerLuInIy, unyone expecLIng CCT Lo
solve the hunger problem should check
IIs sums. Even LIe currenL expunded
program can only cover less than a third
of the 10 million-plus indigent families
in the NHTS database as of a year ago. At
the average per-capita rice consumption
oI o8 grums u duy or q.8 kIIos u monLI,
as estimated by the Bureau of Agricultural
Statistics, LIe uveruge poor IumIIy oI sIx
wouId need P1,8; - P18; more LIun LIe
muxImum CCT sLIpend - Lo buy LIe q kg
IL needs monLIIy uL Pz;Jkg, LIe NuLIonuI
Food Authoritys lowest price since
December 2010.
Even CCT advocates know that its
main impact is long-term, through
better education and health care for
benehcIurIes, despILe LIe ImmedIuLe
assistance it gives the poor. Moreover, its
effectiveness depends on other initiatives,
like having enough schools and clinics
Ior LurgeLed benehcIurIes Lo compIy wILI
stipend conditions.
FAO/FIVIMS FRAMEWORK OF FACTORS AFFECTING FOOD SECURITY
Graphic by Food and Agriculture Organization
NATIONAL, SUBNATIONAL AND COMMUNITY LEVEL HOUSEHOLDS INDIVIDUALS
Socio-economic, Political,
Institutional, Cultural and
Natural Environment
Population
Education
Macro-economy including foreign
trade
Policies and laws
Natural resources endowment
Basic services
Market conditions
Technology
Climate
Civil Strife
Household characteristics
Livelihood systems
Social institutions
Cultural attitudes and gender
Food Economy
(vulnerability context)
Stability
Weather variability
Price fuctuations
Political factors
Economic factors
Access to Food
Poverty
Purchasing power, income,
Transport and market
infrastructure
Household
Livelihood
Strategies, Assets
& Activities
Household Food
Access
Care Practices
Child care
Feeding practices
Nutritional knowledge
Food Preparation
Eating Habits
Intra-household food
distribution
Health and Sanitation
Health care practices
Hygiene, Sanitation
Water quality
Food safety & quality
Nutritional
Status
Food
Consumption
Energy intake
Nutrient intake
Consumption
status
Food
Utilisation
determined by:
Health status
Are we losing the war on hunger
Food Availability
Domestic production
Import capacity
food stocks, food aid
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Hence, u zoo6 WorId Bunk nsLILuLe puper,
ExumInIng CondILIonuI CusI TrunsIer
Programs, counsels that CCT is not a
punuceu uguInsL socIuI excIusIon und sIouId
form part of comprehensive social and
economic policy strategies. Certainly, as
the Food and Agriculture Organizations
FIVIMS framework shows, the challenge of
food security is more than just giving the
poor money to buy edibles (see page 21).
In October 2010, as the government was
pushing to treble CCT, PIDS senior research
fellow and former NEDA assistant director
general Gilbert Llanto cautioned against
rapid rollout before key components are
in place: effective targeting, education
and health services in CCT areas, and any
required counterpart funding from poor
municipalities. He had raised similar
concerns even when the assistance program
had just started in 2008 and was far smaller
than it is today.
Also in October 2010, Social Watch
Philippines, led by longtime governance
and social reform advocate Leonor Briones,
issued a position paper on CCT also citing
the lack of support facilities and community
bodies, the programs inability to address
all the dimensions of poverty and
vulnerability, and the need to provide jobs
more than aid. A year ago the Philippine
Center for Investigative Journalism made
its own critique in three articles: Hype &
rush mask gaps in CCT rollout, DehcIL
in education, health services weighs down
CCT, and CCT debt trap? Future of pro-
poor deal a poser.
A war on many fronts. As the foregoing
studies and stories spell out, along with
oLIer experL reporLs, LIe wur on Iunger Ius
to be waged on many fronts, not just the
household budgets of the poor. In its paper,
Food Security and Poverty in Asia and the
PucIhc: Key CIuIIenges und PoIIcy ssues,
published just before its annual conference
last month, the Asian Development Bank
outlined major issues to be addressed in
ensuring there is enough food on the
table in homes across the region. Its key
poInLs IIsLed In puges vII-Ix ure quoLed und
italicized below:
Food security should be at the heart of
any discussion on poverty. Applied to the
Philippines, major programs to help the
poor like CCT must clearly and effectively
address hunger.
Around the globe but mostly in Asia, rising
populations and changing consumption
patterns are raising global demand for
food. That means food security measures
must take account of future increases in
consumption, and their impact on supplies
MAN VS.
Projected Impact o
Food Energy Ava
-9 -8 -7 -6 -5
Drastic Biofuel Expansion Biofuel Expansion
North America
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Middle East and No
Latin America and Caribbean
Eastern and
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MOTORCAR
f Biofuel Demand on
ilability, 2010-2020
and prices. Part of the rising demand has to
be biofuels, which now require mammoth
amounts of corn, sugarcane and root crops,
enough to spike world grain prices in 2008.
Rising food prices disproportionately
affect the poor and counteract efforts
at poverty reduction. Food prices have
been increasingly volatile in recent years,
suggesting instability in the global food
supply chain. Graphs of the rice price
InuLIon ruLe combIned wILI LIe SWS
hunger data show the two closely parallel,
vividly dramatizing the impact of food costs
on empty stomachs. With price gyrations
all but unavoidable in coming years, hunger
mitigation cannot solely or even mainly
depend on CCT. Rather, there must be
efforts addressing supplies and prices of
rice and other key edibles. Such measures
have not been much discussed by the
governmenL, excepL Ior LIe PresIdenL`s oIL-
repeuLed remurk ubouL rIce suIhcIency nexL
year, the target originally set under Arroyos
2008-2013 FIELDS program.
Climate change is a major contributing
factor in the battle to provide food security.
Science writer Mat McDermott reports in
treehugger.com: Data from the Philippines
shows yields declining 10% for every 1C
increase in daily minimum temperatures.
For its part, the International Rice Research
Institute in Los Baos, in its article Coping
with Climate Change, expIuIns: RR crop
modeler John Sheehy determined that, as
u generuI ruIe, Ior every ; ppm Increuse In
|curbon dIoxIde| concenLruLIon, rIce yIeIds
will increase by 0.5 ton per hectare, but
yIeId wIII decreuse by o.6 Lon per IecLure Ior
every 1C increase in temperature. Hence,
even II we become u neL rIce exporLer nexL
year, we may not be so for long if surplus
harvests decline as domestic consumption
rises and yields fall due to global
warming. And it gets worse if efforts to cut
greenhouse-gas emissions bump up biofuel
demand (see biofuel chart).
A vast array of global, regional and
national policies is required to promote
food security. TIe ADB IIgIIIgILs hve
crucial ones, and only one refers to
CCT: safety nets and social protection
programs, agricultural productivity, rural
development, agricultural research, and
human capital investment.
For its part, the U.N. Economic and Social
CommIssIon on AsIu und LIe PucIhc
(ESCAP) cites some of the same issues in
the ADB report in its 125-page policy paper,
Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security
In AsIu und LIe PucIhc, plus many more:
rich-world farm policies and commodity
specuIuLIon, expundIng deserLs und
shrinking forests, competition for water,
Source: International Food Production Research Institute, cited in
U.N. Standing Committee on Nutrition report, page 91
Are we losing the war on hunger
-9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
Drastic Biofuel Expansion Biofuel Expansion
North America
South Asia
iddle East and North Africa
Eastern and Central Africa
East Asia and Pacic
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geneLIcuIIy modIhed crops, und LIe need Ior
community-based initiatives.
TIIs need Ior u broud mIx oI InILIuLIves wus
precisely why the AHMP included a wide
variety of measures, from CCT and FSP
to FIELDS and Gulayan ng Masa home
gardens. Also, the Anti-Hunger Task Force
implementing it included 30 agencies
coordinated by the National Nutrition
CouncII und LIe OIhce oI LIe PresIdenL,
represented by this writer when he was the
Cabinet Secretary.
The typology of hunger. Plainly, to really
make headway against hunger now and
in the future, the Aquino administration
must come up with a more comprehensive
and sophisticated response to SWS reports
than last weeks SMS pledges to accelerate
CCT and give aid to Visayas and Mindanao
disaster victims. Indeed, even if one
just looks at measures to directly assist
households, there are far more factors to deal
with than the money in their pockets.
The FAOs Right To Food Assessment report
on the Philippines includes tables setting out
the typology or features that shape hunger
at the household level (see tables below).
From family size and educational level to
breudwInner`s occupuLIon und heId oI work,
the characteristics of hungry families point to
different ways to help the poor get more food
on the table than just a monthly trip to the
Land Bank ATM machine.
What those other measures are, both at
the family, the community, and the
national levels, should be the subject of
future Palace and Cabinet deliberations,
statements and actions in light of hunger
incidence surveys. Otherwise, even a
LenIoId expunsIon oI dIrecL cusI ussIsLunce Lo
the indigent will do little to stop the quarterly
expunsIon oI LIe cILIzenry`s Iungry runks.
Tables from "Right To Food Assessment, Philippines," Food & Agriculture Organization, page 7
Hunger Incidence in Families with Listed Characteristics
PROFILES OF DEPRIVATION
Household size
NUMBER OVERALL
one to two
three to four
fve to six
seven to eight
nine or more
3.7
6.4
15.3
28.8
37.4
Young dependents
NUMBER OVERALL
none
one to two
three to four
fve to six
seven or more
5.3
9.8
22.3
45.3
56.3
Age
CHARACTERISTIC OVERALL
15-24
25-35
36-50
51-65
65 and above
7.6
11.5
16.4
12.8
10.2
Gender
Male
Female
14.6
9.0
Educational attainment
CHARACTERISTIC OVERALL
No grade completed
Elementary Undergraduate
Elementary Graduate
High School Undergraduate
High School Graduate
College Undergraduate
College Graduate
32.5
23.8
18.0
13.6
7.6
4.0
1.1
Sector of employment
CHARACTERISTIC OVERALL
Agriculture
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas and Water
Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation &
Telecommunications
Finance
Services
24.6
22.2
7.5
1.8
12.1
7.4
7.7
2.4
6.8
Class of worker
CHARACTERISTIC OVERALL
Works for Private Household
Works for Private Establishment
Works for Government or
Government Corporation
Self Employed
Employer
With Pay (family operated)
Without Pay (family operated)
12.8
12.2
5.8
19.6
10.5
13.3
10.7
Income quintile
CHARACTERISTIC OVERALL
1st-poorest
2nd
3rd
4th
5th-richest
34.9
20.3
8.7
2.4
0.6
Are we losing the war on hunger
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