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Rga7 Training
Rga7 Training
Version 7
RGA 7 Training Guide Part Identification: RG7-TG-01 ReliaSoft Corporation Worldwide Headquarters 1450 South Eastside Loop Tucson, Arizona 85710-6703, USA Telephone: 1.520.886.0410 Fax: +1.520.886.0399 Sales and Information: 1.888.886.0410 (Toll-free in the U.S. and Canada) ReliaSoft@ReliaSoft.com http://www.ReliaSoft.com 2004-2010 ReliaSoft Corporation, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Notice of Rights No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, for any purpose, without the express written permission of ReliaSoft Corporation, Tucson, AZ, USA. Disclaimer Information in this document is subject to change without notice and does not represent a commitment on the part of ReliaSoft Corporation. Companies, names and data used herein are fictitious unless otherwise noted. Use of the software and this document are subject to the terms and conditions set forth in the accompanying License Agreement. This software and documentation were developed at private expense; no portion was developed with government funds. Trademarks ReliaSoft, RGA, Weibull, ALTA, BlockSim and XFRACAS are trademarks of ReliaSoft Corporation. Product names and services identified in this document are trademarks of their respective trademark holders, and are used for illustration purposes. Their use in no way conveys endorsement or other affiliation with ReliaSoft Corporation. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
This training guide is intended to provide you with many examples of how to use ReliaSofts RGA software. It begins with step-by-step examples and then proceeds into more advanced examples and questions.
Windows XP or Vista. Intel Celeron or Pentium class or AMD processor with 256 MB of RAM (512 MB or more is recommended), SVGA display and at least 125 MB of hard disk space.
Please note that if you have set your computer to use large fonts, you will need to set your screen display to 1024x768 in order for all windows to display correctly.
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Features Summary
This chapter is intended to give you a general overview of the software package.
Multi-Phase Data: Using a new methodology developed by Dr. Larry Crow, RGA 7s multi-phase data types accommodate data sets from practical testing situations where failures can be corrected at the time of failure, delayed until a later time during the current phase, fixed during another phase or fixed at the end of a phase. These data types allow for data to be recorded across multiple test phases and analyzed using the Crow Extended - Continuous Evaluation model. Growth Planning: Growth Planning Folios help you to determine necessary test time by providing projected growth curves across multiple test phases, based on initial and/or goal MTBFs, discovery rate, effectiveness factors, etc. MultiPhase Plots allow you to plot data from multiple test phases together, along with data from a Growth Planning Folio, if desired. Mission Profiles: Mission Profiles can help you to ensure that your testing is representative of the expected conditions of actual use by checking, at defined points, whether expected testing usage and actual testing usage are acceptably close. Design of Reliability Tests for Repairable Systems: Based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, RGAs new Design of Reliability Tests utility allows you to design reliability demonstration tests for repairable systems. Monte Carlo Data Simulation and SimuMatic: The Monte Carlo Data simulation utility allows you to randomly generate times-to-failure data based on a selected data type. The SimuMatic utility expands on this capability by allowing you to automatically perform specified analyses on a large number of simulated data sets. This can help you to a) better understand reliability growth and repairable system analysis concepts, b) experiment with the influences of sample sizes and data types on analysis methods, c) construct simulation-based confidence bounds, d) better understand the concepts behind confidence bounds and e) design reliability tests. Template-Based Report Generation allows you to create and format reports with ease, using the same powerful tools and functions available in General Spreadsheets. Save your reports as templates for reuse, or use one of the templates included with the software.
2 Features Summary
Known Operating Times Concurrent Operating Times Multiple Systems with Dates Multiple Systems with Event Codes
2.2.1.2 Discrete Data When you have data from one-shot (pass/fail) reliability growth tests, you can use the Standard Gompertz, Modified Gompertz, Lloyd-Lipow. Logistic, Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) or Duane models for data analysis. The available models will depend on the data type. These include:
2.2.1.3 Reliability Data The Reliability data type is used when the reliability of the system is recorded at different times or stages. The reliability can be calculated by dividing the number of units still operating by the total number of units on test or can be computed using life data analysis methods. For these data sets, you can use the Standard Gompertz, Modified Gompertz, Lloyd-Lipow or Logistic models for data analysis. You will be able to estimate the reliability at a specified time/stage or determine the amount of testing that will be required to demonstrate a specified reliability.
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2.2.2 Exclusive Support for the Latest Methods for Reliability Growth Projections, Planning and Management
Traditional reliability growth analysis models allow you to analyze data from tests where the corrective actions are incorporated during the test (test-fix-test). However, in actual practice, fixes may be delayed until after the completion of the test (test-find-test) or you may implement some fixes during the test while delaying others (test-fix-find-test). To better represent these practices, RGA 7 provides full support for the reliability growth test planning/management strategy and data analysis methodology developed by Dr. Larry Crow. These techniques provide useful metrics to support decision-making, including the MTBF demonstrated through testing, the growth in MTBF that will be achieved through implementation of corrective actions and the maximum potential MTBF that can likely be achieved for the product design given the current reliability growth management strategy. The software also provides estimates regarding latent failure modes that have not yet been uncovered through testing. Reliability growth projections analysis can be performed using the Crow Extended model and, new in Version 7, the Crow Extended - Continuous Analysis model for multi-phase data. This new model accommodates the fact that reliability growth testing is often conducted across multiple test phases, allowing you to analyze these phases in a single Folio rather than having to analyze each test phase separately. This also allows you to model more realistically the fixes that are implemented in later test phases instead of directly at the end of the phase when the failure mode occurred. Available multi-phase data types include:
You can use the practical methods and models in RGA 7 for reducing the costs to maintain a fleet of repairable systems or major subsystems. The application gives the optimum overhaul schedule in order to have the lowest life cycle cost while maintaining a specified level of reliability. If you have planned improvements to the systems, you can use the Crow Extended model to project how the changes will affect the reliability of the population.
2 Features Summary
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You can use RS Draw, ReliaSofts integrated metafile graphics editor, to edit and annotate the plots generated by RGA. This utility allows you to insert text, highlight a point or line, mark the coordinates of a point, and much more.
2.5 Simple, Powerful Data Import and Integration with Other Software
Of course, RGA makes it easy to import information from other RGA files. The software also provides a flexible wizard that allows you to map the data from an Excel or delimited text file (*.txt, *.csv, *.prn, *.smc) for import into one of RGAs Folios. In addition, you can save these mappings for later re-use. RGA provides direct integration with ReliaSoft's Weibull++ and XFRACAS software tools.
2 Features Summary
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First Steps
3.1 Starting RGA
To start RGA, choose Start > All Programs > ReliaSoft Office > RGA 7.
3 First Steps
Create a project. Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the Failure Times data type. Enter the failure times data into the Data Sheet. Select a model and calculate the parameters. Plot the data. Use the Quick Calculation Pad to calculate the instantaneous MTBF for the product at a given time. Save the project.
At this time, we assume that you have started the application and that you are looking at the Multiple Document Interface (MDI) without any open projects.1 The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder within the Examples folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Quick Start.rga7.
Therefore, you will create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet that will accommodate failure times data.
1. Please note that this example uses the default settings that are shipped with the application. If you have changed any of your settings, click the Reset Application Settings button on the Reset Settings page of the User Setup.
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Create a new project by clicking Create New in the initial window that may appear at startup, by choosing File > New or by clicking the New icon.
The New Data Sheet Setup window will appear when you create a new project in RGA, allowing you to add a Standard Folio to the project. By default, the Expert view will be displayed, as shown next. You can also click the Wizard View button and answer a series of questions to set the data type.
For this example, the data set contains failure times obtained from developmental testing, so click the Developmental category and Times-to-Failure Data sub-category. Note that the right side of the window displays the available developmental data types. Click the Failure Times option, and then click OK to generate the new Standard Folio with the Data Sheet that you have defined.
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3 First Steps
Type the failure times data in the Time to Event column of the Data Sheet, as shown next.
An additional column, Comments, appears in the Data Sheet by default. This column can be used for additional information about your data. The information in this column is not taken into consideration when calculating the parameters.
The next step is to select a model to perform the analysis. On the Main page of the Standard Folio Control Panel, notice that the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model is selected by default.
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Go to the Analysis page of the Control Panel by clicking the Analysis tab at the bottom of the panel.
Analysis Type indicates the method used for estimating the parameters. For t his example, use the default setting of Maximum Likelihood. Confidence Interval Method displays the method used for calculating the confidence bounds. For t his example, use the default setting of Crow. Note that by default, the Use Defined Gap option is not selected. This option allows you to specify whether or not a gap interval has been specified in the data set. When a gap is defined in the data, the application assumes that the data for that time period is unknown and ignores any entries that have been made for that time period. Under Other Options, note that Input is Cumulative is selected by default. This indicates that the data set is cumulative. For cumulative data, you will enter the time of each failure and for non-cumulative data, you will enter the time between each failure. This determines how the test time is calculated. For example, for the cumulative failure times 10, 20, 30 and 50, the test time would be 50 because the test time accumulates with each failure time. For the non-cumulative failure times 10, 20, 30 and 50, the test time would be 110 because the test time starts over at 0 for each failure time.
Return to the Main page of the Control Panel. The Termination Setting field indicates whether the test was time terminated. Click the [...] button in this field to open the Termination Time window. This window allows you to specify whether the test was time terminated or ended at the time of the last failure. For this example, the test was time terminated at 400 hours.
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3 First Steps
Select the Time Terminated option and enter 400 into the input box, as shown next.
Click OK. Notice that the button on the Standard Folio Control Panel now displays the time at which the test was terminated. Now calculate the parameters by choosing Data > Calculate or by clicking the Calculate icon.
The Information area is located above the Results area on the Main page. Notice that the Analysis Type in the upper left corner displays MLE for Maximum Likelihood Estimation. The Information area also displays the data category (Developmental), confidence interval method (Crow), specified gap (No Gap) and whether the data set is cumulative or non-cumulative (Cumulative). The appearance of the Information area will vary depending on the current data type and model. In addition, for some settings (the ones displayed in blue text), you can change the option from the Information area by clicking the box, which cycles through the available settings.
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By default, the Cumulative Number of Failures plot will appear in the Plot Sheet that is added to the Standard Folio, as shown next.
A variety of plot types are available in RGAs Plot Sheet, with the available plot types depending on the current data type and model. For this analysis, the MTBF vs. Time and Failure Intensity vs. Time plots are also available. The Cumulative Number of Failures plot shows the cumulative number of failures plotted against time. The points represent actual failures in the data set and the Expected Failures line represents the projected cumulative number of failures versus time based on the calculated parameters. This plot serves as an empirical goodness-of-fit test for the model used for analysis.
Choose MTBF vs. Time from the Plot Type drop-down list, as shown next, to display another plot.
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3 First Steps
The MTBF vs. Time plot shows the mean time between failures plotted against time. The points represent actual failures in the data set.
To calculate the instantaneous MTBF of the product at a specified time, choose Data > Quick Calculation Pad or click the QCP icon.
On the Basic Calculations page of the Quick Calculations Pad (QCP), make the following selections/ inputs:
Confidence Bounds:
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You can see that the instantaneous MTBF at 400 hours is 14.5146 hours. The upper and lower 90% confidence intervals are also displayed. Click Close to close the Quick Calculation Pad and return to the Data Sheet. Close the Folio.
Next, you will save the project. To do this, choose File > Save or click the Save icon.
In the Save As window, browse to the desired location for the project, type the name QuickStart, accept the default file type (*.rga7) and click Save to continue.
By default, files will be saved in the My Documents directory on your computer. You can select a different directory, if desired, and RGA 7 will remember the directory for the next time you save the file.
Close the project by choosing File > Close or by clicking the Close icon.
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Step-by-Step Examples
4.1 List of Examples
This chapter provides the following step-by-step examples, designed to help you explore the features of the RGA software:
Example 1 - Working with Grouped Failure Times - page 19 Example 2 - Working with Multiple Systems - Known Operating Times Data - page 25 Example 3 - Working with Sequential Success/Failure Data - page 31 Example 4 - Working with Grouped Configuration Success/Failure Data - page 35 Example 5 - Working with Mixed Discrete Data - page 40 Example 6 - Analyzing Reliability Data - page 45 Example 7 - Using the Crow Extended Model for Reliability Growth Test Planning - page 48 Example 8 - Working with Multiple Systems - Concurrent Times Data - page 59 Example 9 - Reliability Growth Analysis Based on Fleet Data from Fielded Systems - page 71 Example 10 - Analyzing Software Reliability Growth - page 79 Example 11 - Using Mission Profiles - page 87 Example 12 - Working with MultiPhase Tests, Growth Planning and Design of Reliability Tests - page 96 Example 13 - Fielded Repairable System Data Analysis - page 115
Please note that these examples use the default settings that are shipped with the application. If you have changed any of your settings, click the Reset Application Settings button on the Reset Settings page of the User Setup.
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4 Step-by-Step Examples
For each interval, the total number of flight hours and total number of assigned failures for the five helicopters are recorded, as shown in the following table. Interval 1 2 3 4 5 6 Failures in Interval 12 6 15 3 18 16 Interval Length 0-62 63-100 101-187 188-210 211-350 351-500
Do the following:
Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the Grouped Failure Times data type. Calculate the parameters using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model. Plot the instantaneous MTBF vs. Time. Use the Quick Calculation Pad to obtain the instantaneous MTBF for the helicopter at 500 hours.
Solution The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Grouped Failure Times Example.rga7.
Create a new project by choosing File > New or clicking the New icon.
By default, the Expert view will be displayed. You can also click the Wizard View icon and answer a series of questions to set the Folio type.
For this example, the data set was obtained from developmental testing, so click the Developmental category and Times-to-Failure Data sub-category. Note that the right side of the window displays the available developmental data types.
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Click OK to generate the new Standard Folio with the Data Sheet that you have selected. Enter the data into the Data Sheet. The rows in the Data Sheet represent the intervals (e.g. row 1 is interval 1, row 2 is interval 2 and so on). Enter the failures for each interval in the Failures in the Interval column and enter the end point for each interval in the Interval End Time column. On the Main page of the Standard Folio Control Panel, use the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model, as shown next.
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Go to the Standard Folio Control Panels Analysis page by clicking the Analysis tab.
Analysis Type indicates the method used for estimating the parameters. Use the default setting of Maximum Likelihood for this example. Note that for the current data type and model, this option cannot be changed. Confidence Interval Method displays the method used for calculating the confidence bounds. Use the default setting of Crow for this example.
Go back to the Standard Folio Control Panels Main page by clicking the Main tab. Notice that the Information area displays MLE for Maximum Likelihood Estimation. The Information area also displays the data category (Developmental) and confidence interval method (Crow). Now calculate the parameters by choosing Data > Calculate or by clicking the Calculate icon.
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The calculated parameters will appear in the Results area of the Standard Folio Control Panel, as shown next.
The next step is to plot the data from the Data Sheet. To do this, choose Data > Plot or click the Plot icon.
By default, the Cumulative Number of Failures plot will appear in the Plot Sheet that is added to the Standard Folio.
The plots available in RGA plot sheets vary depending on the current data type and model. For this analysis, the MTBF vs. Time and Failure Intensity vs. Time plots are also available.
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4 Step-by-Step Examples
Choose MTBF vs. Time from the Plot Type drop-down menu to display another plot, as shown next.
By default, both the instantaneous MTBF vs. Time and cumulative MTBF vs. Time will be plotted. However, you can specify to plot the individual lines only. These options are available in the Show/Hide Items window, which you can access by right-clicking the plot and choosing Show/Hide Items.
To display only the cumulative MTBF line on the plot, clear the Instantaneous MTBF check box, then click OK. To calculate the instantaneous MTBF of the helicopter at a specified time, choose Data > Quick Calculation Pad or click the QCP icon.
Confidence Bounds:
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4.3 Example 2 - Working with Multiple Systems - Known Operating Times Data
You can see that the instantaneous MTBF of the helicopter at 500 hours is 8.7792 hours. The 90% two-sided confidence bounds are also displayed.
Click Close to close the Quick Calculation Pad and return to the Data Sheet. Close the Folio. Choose File > Save or click the Save icon.
In the Save As window, browse to the desired location for the project. Type Grouped Failure Times as the file name and accept the default file type, RGA 7 file (*.rga7). Click Save to save the project. Close the project by choosing File > Close. You will now be looking at the MDI with no projects open.
4.3 Example 2 - Working with Multiple Systems - Known Operating Times Data
Two identical prototypes were tested. Any design changes made to improve the reliability of these systems were incorporated into both systems when either of the two systems failed. At the beginning of the test, only one prototype was available. For the purpose of not delaying the testing program, the testing commenced with just one unit until the second unit was available. At each observed failure, the operating time of each unit was recorded.
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4 Step-by-Step Examples
Tables of the data obtained from the test are given next. Failed Unit ID 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 Do the following:
Time Unit 1 2.6 16.5 16.5 17 20.5 25.3 28.7 41.8 45.5 48.6 49.6 51.4 58.2 59
Time Unit 2 0 0 0 0 0.9 3.8 4.6 14.7 17.6 22 23.4 26.3 35.7 36.5
Time Unit 1 60.6 61.9 76.6 81.1 84.1 84.7 94.6 104.8 105.9 108.8 132.4 132.4 132.4 132.4
Time Unit 2 37.6 39.1 55.4 61.1 63.6 64.3 72.6 85.9 87.1 89.9 119.5 150.1 153.7 167.6
Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the Multiple Systems - Known Operating Times data type. Specify the test termination time. Calculate the parameters using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model. Use the QCP to determine the demonstrated MTBF at the end of the test. Assuming both units are tested for an additional 100 hours each, use the QCP to determine how many failures are expected to occur in that period.
Solution The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Multiple Systems - Known Times Example.rga7.
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4.3 Example 2 - Working with Multiple Systems - Known Operating Times Data
Create a new project with a Standard Folio and a Data Sheet for multiple systems with known operating times data, as shown next.
Notice that Unit 2 was tested for an additional 13.9 hours before testing was halted and no failures occurred during this period. This means that this is a time terminated test and the total test time is 132.4 + 167.6 = 300 hours.
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4 Step-by-Step Examples
Specify the test termination time by clicking the ... button in the Test Termination field on the Standard Folio Control Panels Main page. The Termination Time window will appear. Select the Time Terminated option and then enter 300 into the Termination Time input box, as shown next.
Click OK. Notice that the termination time now appears on the Time Terminated button on the Standard Folio Control Panel.
Note that not selecting the Time Terminated option would have indicated that the test ended with the last failure in the data set. For this example, the termination time would have been 286.1hours if you had not specified the actual termination time.
On the Main page, make sure that Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) is the model. On the Analysis page, make sure that the Input is Cumulative option is selected. Calculate the parameters. The results are shown next.
The demonstrated mean time between failures value at the end of the test is 15.5110 hours. This is found in the Results area in the Standard Folio Control Panel, in the DMTBF field. The demonstrated MTBF can also be calculated using the QCP, as described next.
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4.3 Example 2 - Working with Multiple Systems - Known Operating Times Data
Choose Data > Quick Calculation Pad to open the Quick Calculation Pad. To determine the instantaneous MTBF at 300 hours, on the Basic Calculations page, make the following selections/inputs:
Confidence Bounds:
Again, the demonstrated MTBF at the end of the test is found to be 15.5110 hours, as shown in the Control Panel. The 95%, two-sided confidence bounds are also displayed. To show the calculated number of failures at 300 hours, select Number of Failures under Options for Calculations and click Calculate again.
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Notice that this value exactly matches the entered data. If both units are tested for an additional 100 hours each, then the total cumulative time in the test would be 500 hours. You can use the QCP to determine the number of expected failures at 500 hours.
To do this, enter 500 for the Time/Stage. Click Calculate. The results will appear, as shown next.
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From this calculation, it can be seen that the cumulative number of failures by 500 hours is approximately 39. However, this number includes the number of failures already observed, which is 27 in this case. Therefore, if both units are tested for an additional 100 hours each, then the expected number of additional failures is 39 - 27 = 12.
Close the QCP. Close the Folio. Save the project as Multiple Systems - Known Times.rga7. Close the project.
Success/ Failure F F S S F S S S F S
Trial 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Success/ Failure F S S S S S S S S S
Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the Sequential data type. Calculate the parameters using the Logistic model. Plot the Reliability vs. Time. If design changes continue to be incorporated and the testing continues, use the QCP to determine:
When the reliability goal of 99% will be achieved. The attainable reliability at the end of the 35th launch.
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4 Step-by-Step Examples
Solution The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Sequential Success Failure Data Example.rga7.
Create a new project with a Standard Folio and a Data Sheet for sequential success/failure data, as shown next.
The Data Sheet will appear. The row numbers that appear on the left side of the Data Sheet represent the sequence/trial number. Therefore, enter the success/failure data into the Success/Failure column, as shown next.
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Calculate the parameters using the Logistic model. The results will appear in the Results area of the Standard Folio Control Panel, as shown next.
Next, plot the data by choosing Data > Plot or by clicking the Plot icon.
By default, the Reliability vs. Time will appear in the Plot Sheet. If the termination line is displayed on your plot, open the Show/Hide Items window by right-clicking the plot and choosing Show/Hide Items from the shortcut menu that displays. Clear the Termination Line check box, then click OK. The plot will look like the one shown next.
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4 Step-by-Step Examples
Open the QCP. On the Basic Calculations page, make the following selections/inputs:
Confidence Bounds:
Therefore, if design changes continue to be incorporated and the testing continues, the reliability goal of 99% will be achieved at the end of the 62nd launch. Now determine the attainable reliability at the end of the 35th launch if design changes continue to be incorporated and the testing continues.
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To do this, select Reliability and enter 35 for the Time/Stage. Click Calculate.
The attainable reliability at the end of the 35th launch will be 91.50%.
Close the QCP. Close the Folio. Save the project as Sequential Success Failure Data.rga7. Close the project.
Configuration 1 (trials 1 to 14) experienced 5 failures. (The cumulative number of failures at that point was 5 failures in 14 launches.) Configuration 2 (trials 15 to 33) experienced 3 failures. (The cumulative number of failures at that point was 8 failures in 33 launches.) Configuration 3 (trials 34 to 48) experienced 4 failures. (The cumulative number of failures at that point was 12 failures in 48 launches.) Configuration 4 (trials 49 to 68) experienced 4 failures. (The cumulative number of failures at that point was 16 failures in 68 launches.)
Do the following:
Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the Grouped per Configuration data type. Calculate the parameters using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model. Plot the Reliability vs. Time.
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Solution The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Grouped per Configuration Data Example.rga7.
Create a new project with a Standard Folio and a Data Sheet for grouped per configuration data, as shown next.
Double-click the Number of Units column header to open the Change Heading window. In the field, change the heading text to Trials (Cumulative), as shown next.
Click OK. Enter the data into the Data Sheet. Each row in the Data Sheet represents a different configuration. Enter the cumulative number of launches for each configuration in the Trials (Cumulative) column and enter
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the cumulative number of failures for each configuration in the Number of Failures column, as shown next.
Calculate the parameters using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model. The results are shown next.
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The plot displays lines for each of the four configurations, identified as Data Intervals in the plot. You can see from the plot that the reliability for Configuration 4 is about 80%. However, an exact calculation can be obtained from the QCP.
Open the Quick Calculation Pad. On the Basic Calculations page, make the following selections/inputs:
Time/Stage: 4
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Click Close to close the Quick Calculation Pad and return to the Data Sheet. Close the Folio. Save the project as Grouped per Configuration Data. Close the project.
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Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the Mixed Data data type. Calculate the parameters using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model. Plot the Reliability vs. Time. Use the QCP to calculate the instantaneous Reliability expected after 110 trials. Use the QCP to calculate the systems average Reliability between trials 60 and 76. Use the QCP to calculate the systems average Reliability between trials 16 and 76.
Solution The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Mixed Discrete Data Example.rga7.
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Because the data set contains grouped data and individual success/failure data in combination, the Mixed data type is used to analyze the data.
Create a new project with a Standard Folio and a Data Sheet for mixed discrete data, as shown next.
In the Data Sheet, each row represents an interval. Enter the number of failed units in each interval in the Failures in Interval column and enter the cumulative number of trials at the end of each interval in the Cumulative Trials column, as shown next.
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Calculate the parameters using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model. The results are shown next.
Next, open the QCP. To calculate the instantaneous reliability value expected after 110 trials, do the following:
Confidence Bounds:
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The instantaneous reliability estimated for 110 trials is 87.20% with a 95% lower confidence bound of 64.22%. (The confidence bound value shows the most conservative estimate of the limit.)
Next, calculate the average reliability between stages 60 and 76. Select Average Reliability, enter 60 for Time/Stage 1 and enter 76 for Time/Stage 2. Click Calculate. The results are shown next.
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Notice that the average reliability between Stages 60 and 76 is 84.84%. By way of comparison, notice that the average reliability between Stages 16 and 76 is 81.94%, as shown next.
Close the QCP. Close the Folio. Save the project as Mixed Discrete Data.rga7. Close the project.
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2 2 3
0.72 0.78
4 3 Do the following:
0.82 0.85
Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the Reliability data type. Calculate the parameters using the Standard Gompertz model. Use the QCP to determine the reliability at the end of the 12 month period based on the information obtained from the first five months of testing. From the calculated results, determine the maximum achievable reliability if the reliability program plan pursued during the first 5 months is continued.
Solution The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Reliability Data Example.rga7.
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Create a new project with a Standard Folio and a Data Sheet for reliability data, as shown next.
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Calculate the parameters using the Standard Gompertz model. The results are shown next.
Next, open the QCP. On the Basic Calculations page, make the following selections/inputs:
Confidence Bounds:
The reliability after a 12 month period is found to be 93.14%, which exceeds the reliability goal of 92%.
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The theoretically maximum achievable reliability is parameter a of the Gompertz model. For this example, this is 94.22%, as shown in the Results area of the Control Panel.
Close the Folio. Save the project as Reliability Data.rga7. Close the project.
4.8 Example 7 - Using the Crow Extended Model for Reliability Growth Test Planning
This example is based on the paper An Extended Reliability Growth Model For Managing and Accessing Corrective Actions by Dr. Larry Crow, presented at the 2004 RAMS. RGA provides full support for the reliability growth test planning/management strategy and data analysis methodology developed by Dr. Larry Crow. These techniques provide useful metrics to support decisionmaking, including the MTBF demonstrated through testing, the growth in MTBF that will be achieved through implementation of corrective actions, the maximum potential MTBF that can likely be achieved for the product design and estimates regarding latent failure modes that have not yet been uncovered through testing. Reliability growth projection data analysis can be performed using the Crow Extended reliability growth analysis model. This model utilizes A, BC and BD failure mode classifications to analyze reliability growth data. Using this terminology, you can specify which failure modes you are not going to fix (A), which failure modes will be fixed while the test is in progress (BC) and which failure modes will be corrected at the end of the test (BD). In addition, you can assign a factor to each BD mode that estimates the effectiveness of the correction that will be implemented after the test. (There is no reliability growth for A modes and the effectiveness of the corrective actions for BC modes is assumed to be demonstrated during the test.) Analysis with the Crow Extended model then allows you to consider different management strategies to see if you will reach your goal for reliability growth. For this example, a product underwent developmental testing. The observed failure modes were identified during testing. Some modes were corrected during the test (BC modes), some modes were corrected after the end of the test phase (delayed fixes, BD modes) and some modes were left in the system (A modes). The final testing time is 400 hours.
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4.8 Example 7 - Using the Crow Extended Model for Reliability Growth Test Planning
The following tables give the data from the test. Failure Time 0.7 3.7 13.2 15 17.6 25.3 47.5 54 54.5 56.4 63.6 72.2 99.2 99.6 100.3 102.5 112 112.2 120.9 Mode BC17 BC17 BC17 BD1 BC18 BD2 BD3 BD4 BC19 BD5 A BD5 BC20 BD6 BD7 A BD8 BC21 BD2 Failure Time 121.9 125.5 133.4 151 163 164.7 174.5 177.4 191.6 192.7 213 244.8 249 250.8 260.1 263.5 273.1 274.7 282.8 Mode BC22 BD9 BD10 BC23 BC24 BD9 BC25 BD10 BC26 BD11 A A BD12 A BD1 BD8 A BD6 BC17 Failure Time 285 304 315.4 317.1 320.6 324.5 324.9 342 350.2 355.2 364.6 364.9 366.3 373 379.4 389 394.9 395.2 Mode BD13 BD9 BD4 A A BD12 BD10 BD5 BD3 BC26 BD10 A BD2 BD8 BD14 BD15 A BD16
Note: The Mode column typically contains text that describes the actual failure mode. For purposes of the
examples shown in this Training Guide, numbers are used to identify unique modes.
An effectiveness factor has been assigned for each of the BD failure modes (delayed fixes). The effectiveness factor is based on engineering assessment and represents the fractional decrease in failure intensity of a failure mode after the implementation of a corrective action. The effectiveness factors for the BD modes are given in the following table. BD Mode 1 2 3 Effectiveness Factor 0.7 0.7 0.8
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Effectiveness Factor 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5
Configure the software to calculate the unbiased beta. Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the Failure Times data type. Assign effectiveness factors to the BD modes. Define the test termination time. Calculate the parameters using the Crow Extended model. Plot the Growth Potential MTBF. From this plot, determine the demonstrated MTBF for the system and the growth potential MTBF. Plot the Failure Mode Strategy to view the break-down of the unique failure modes and what percentage each contributes to the total number of failure modes in the system. Plot the Individual Mode MTBF and determine the failure mode with the lowest MTBF.
Solution The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Growth Planning Management Example.rga7. When using the Crow Extended model, it is common practice to calculate the unbiased beta. You can specify to calculate the unbiased beta via the User Setup. (Note that for the projections, the unbiased beta is always used, regardless of the setting in the User Setup.)
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4.8 Example 7 - Using the Crow Extended Model for Reliability Growth Test Planning
Choose File > User Setup. On the Calculations page, select Calculate Unbiased Beta, as shown next.
Click OK to exit the User Setup. Create a new project with a Standard Folio and a Data Sheet for failure times data as shown next.
Choose Crow Extended as the model. This adds the Project columns (Classification and Mode) to the Data Sheet.
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Enter the data into the Data Sheet.1 Enter the failure times in the Time to Event column. Enter the mode classification information into the Classification column. Classification information must be entered as follows:
A indicates that no corrective action was or will be performed (management chooses not to address for technical, financial or other reasons). BD indicates delayed corrective action (aka B modes). You will be required to define the effectiveness factor for each BD mode to estimate the fractional decrease in failure intensity. BC indicates that corrective action was taken during the test (aka C modes). The analysis assumes that the effect of the corrective action was experienced during the test (as with other test-fix-test reliability growth analyses).
You can then enter the corresponding failure mode identification (e.g. 1) into the Mode column. Note that there is no failure mode identification for the A classifications since corrective action is not performed on A modes.
Tip: If you enter C into the Classification column, the application will automatically convert it to BC and if you
enter D into the Classification column, the application will automatically convert it to BD.
Your Data Sheet will look like the one shown next. (Please note that the following Data Sheet displays only 27 rows of data. Be sure to enter all of the data for this example as given in the table on page 49. Your Data Sheet will contain 56 rows of data.)
Before calculating the parameters for the data set, you will be required to define the effectiveness factor for each BD mode to estimate the fractional decrease in failure intensity.
1. Instead of typing the data by hand, you can open the Growth Planning Management Example.rga7 file, copy the data from it and then paste the data into your file.
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4.8 Example 7 - Using the Crow Extended Model for Reliability Growth Test Planning
To define the effectiveness factors, choose Data > Effectiveness Factors or click the Effectiveness Factor icon.2
The Effectiveness Factor window will appear. Enter the effectiveness factor for each BD mode, as shown next.
The BD Mode column displays each unique mode name in the current Data Sheet that has been assigned a BD classification. The Effectiveness Factor column allows you to define the effectiveness factor. This can be a value between 0 and 1 where 0 indicates that the corrective action will remove 0% of the failure intensity for the mode from the system and 1 indicates that the corrective action will remove 100% of the failure intensity for the mode from the system. The Comments column allows you to type any additional information about the effectiveness factors. The information in the Comments column is not taken into consideration when the parameters are calculated. The average effectiveness factor will appear in the status bar in the bottom right corner of the window.3
Click OK to save the information and return to the Data Sheet. Specify the test termination time by clicking the ... button in the Test Termination field on the Standard Folio Control Panels Main page. The Termination Time window will appear. Select the Time Terminated option and enter a termination time of 400 into the Termination Time input box, as shown next.
If you click Calculate before assigning the effectiveness factors, a window will appear notifying you that all unique BD modes have not been given a valid effectiveness factor. Click Yes to assign the effectiveness factors. 3. You can also define a fixed effectiveness factor by clicking the Use Fixed Effectiveness Factor button on the toolbar and entering the fixed value into the input box that appears. This can be a value greater than 0 and less than or equal to 1. This will be used instead of any values that may appear in the Spreadsheet area.
2.
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Click OK to return to the Data Sheet. Notice that the termination time appears on the Time Terminated button on the Standard Folio Control Panel. Calculate the parameters. The results will appear, as shown next.
When using the Crow Extended model for reliability growth projections, a Results drop-down menu will appear in the Results area. This drop-down menu allows you to select the modes in the data set that you want to view the results for in the Results area. For example, if you select All Modes, the results for all modes in the data set will appear in the Results area. If you select BC Modes, only the results for all BC modes in the data set will appear in the Results area. The available classifications in the drop-down menu will correspond with the modes that exist in the data set. If other words, if your data set has only A and BC modes, you could view the results for A modes and BC modes, but the BD modes option will not appear in the menu.
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4.8 Example 7 - Using the Crow Extended Model for Reliability Growth Test Planning
The Growth Potential MTBF plot displays three lines: the demonstrated MTBF, the projected MTBF and the growth potential MTBF. The demonstrated MTBF line represents the MTBF at the end of the test without any delayed corrective actions. The projected MTBF line displays the estimated MTBF after the delayed corrective actions have been implemented. The growth potential MTBF line represents the maximum achievable MTBF based on the current management strategy. From this plot, it can be determined that the demonstrated MTBF, which is the result of the corrective action taken during the test (BC modes) for this system, is about 7.85 hours. If the 16 delayed corrective actions are implemented (the fixes for the BD modes), the MTBF is projected to be about 11.32 hours. If testing continues with the current management strategy in place (i.e. modes corrected vs. modes not corrected) and with the current effectiveness of each corrective action, then the maximum attainable MTBF is estimated to be about 15 hours. This is called the growth potential MTBF.
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The Failure Mode Strategy plot type is a pie chart that breaks down the average failure intensity of the entire system into the following categories:
Type A modes will not be addressed - 9.48% of the total. Type BC modes are addressed during the test.
Type BC - Seen represents the percent of average system failure intensity due to BC modes observed during the test - 14.167% of the total. Type BC - Unseen represents the percent of average system failure intensity due to BC modes which have not yet been seen - 31.042% of the total. Type BD - Unseen represents the percent of system failure intensity due to BD modes which have not yet been seen - 33.226% of the total. Type BD - Remain modes represent the BD mode average failure intensity portion that remains in the system because the corrective actions were not 100% effective - 3.323% of the total. Type BD - Removed modes represent the average failure intensity portion that will be removed through the implementation of the delayed corrective actions - 8.761% of the total.
Now plot the Individual Mode MTBF. This bar chart shows the MTBF of each individual failure mode, which allows you to identify the failure modes with the lowest MTBF. These are the failure modes that cause the majority of the system failures.
Before represents the mode's MTBF at the end of the test. This is available for A, BC and BD modes. For BD modes, this is the MTBF before corrective actions are implemented at the end of the test.
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4.8 Example 7 - Using the Crow Extended Model for Reliability Growth Test Planning
After is available only for BD modes and represents the modes MTBF after the corrective actions have been implemented at the end of the test.
Specify to plot only the BD modes on the chart. To do this, choose Plot > Plot Modes. The Select Modes to Plot window will appear, as shown next.
By default, all of the modes are selected to be plotted. Choose BD Modes from the Select by Mode field in the bottom left corner of the window. Only the BD modes are selected in the window. Click OK. The plot will automatically be refreshed and only BD modes will appear on the plot. By default, the X-axis numbers will appear horizontally on the plot. You can change the orientation of the number to vertical by selecting Plot > Plot Setup or by clicking the Plot Setup icon.
In the Plot Setup window, click the Plot Labels page, as shown next.
Click the Set Font button next to the Show X-Axis Labels check box to open the Font Dialog.
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In the Orientation field, enter 90, then click OK to return to the Plot Setup window.
Click OK to close the Plot Setup window and refresh the plot.
As you can see from the plot, the BD10 mode has the lowest After MTBF, about 333 hours. Note that you can pause on a mode to read the value on the chart. This plot also show you which failure mode makes the biggest contribution to your failures and which failure mode had the greatest improvement.
Close the Folio. Save the project as Growth Planning Management.rga7. Close the project. Choose File > User Setup. On the Calculations page, clear the Calculate Unbiased Beta check box, then click OK.
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System 4 Time to Event Start Time Failure Times 0 36 306 306 334 354 395 403 448 456 461 End Time 474
System 5 Time to Event Start Time Failure Times 0 23 46 127 166 169 213 213 255 369 374 380 415 End Time 436
System 6 Time to Event Start Time Failure Times 0 7 13 13 31 31 82 109 137 166 200 210 220 301 422 437 469 469 End Time 500
Do the following:
Create the appropriate Data Sheet. Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the Multiple Systems - Concurrent Operating Times data type. Calculate the parameters using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model. Determine whether all systems have the same failure intensity behavior. Use the Common Beta Hypothesis, Cramr-von Mises and Laplace Trend statistical tests and identify the system(s) that do not follow the same trend as the rest of the systems. If one or more systems do not follow the same trend, repeat the analysis without including these system(s). Use the QCP to determine the demonstrated MTBF.
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Solution The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Multiple Systems - Concurrent Times Example.rga7.
Create a new project with a Standard Folio and a Data Sheet for multiple systems-concurrent operating times data, as shown next.
RGA offers two views for entering data from multiple systems. For this example, you will use the Advanced Systems View. The Advanced Systems View displays the data for each system in a separate Data Sheet. By default, your Data Sheet should be in this view. If it is not, choose Systems > Systems View > Advanced Systems View or click the Switch Systems View icon on the Standard Folios Control Panel.
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Your Data Sheet will look like the one shown next.
When you select to use the Advanced System View, the Advanced Systems View Explorer will be displayed on the left side of the Standard Folio. This Explorer displays all of the systems that have been defined in the Standard Folio and the corresponding data. In addition, the Explorer allows you to select which systems will be included in the combined superposition or equivalent system analysis. By default, all systems are selected to be included in the analysis. However, you can select or clear the box to the left of the system name to include it in or remove it from the combined analysis. The Time to Event column allows you to define the start and end times of the observation period for the analysis in addition to the times of the failures that occurred during the observation period. The start time of the observation period is entered into the Start row and the end time of the observation period is entered into the End row. (These are the first two rows of the Data Sheet, which are reserved for this information.) The times of the failures are entered into the subsequent rows, starting with row 3.
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Enter the data for System 1 into the System 1 Data Sheet, as shown next.
Now add another system to the Advanced Systems View Explorer by choosing Systems > Add System, or by right-clicking inside the Explorer and choosing Add System from the shortcut menu that displays. System 2 will appear in the Advanced Systems View Explorer. Click its name in the Explorer to access the System 2 Data Sheet and enter the data for System 2. Repeat these steps to continue adding systems and entering the remaining data. Your Standard Folio will look like the one shown next once you have entered all data.
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To view the data as entered in the Normal View, choose Systems > Systems View > Normal View or click the Switch Systems View icon. Your Standard Folio will look like the one shown next.
Notice that the system names are displayed in the System Name column and that the Event column displays the event types (S for System Start, F for Failure and E for System End).
Switch back to the Advanced Systems View. To expand the hierarchy in the Advanced Systems View Explorer to show the start and end time data below each system choose, Systems > Expand All or click the + (Expand) button next to each system. The first number is the start time (i.e. the beginning of the observation period), as defined in the Time to Event column and Start row in the Data Sheet. The second number is the end time (i.e. the end of the observation period), as defined in the Time to Event column and End row in the Data Sheet.
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Next, calculate the parameters using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model. The results will appear in the Results area of the Standard Folio Control Panel, as shown next.
In the Results area, the CBH (Common Beta Hypothesis) displays Passed, which suggests that it can be assumed that all systems have the same failure intensity behavior. However, it is always recommended to further investigate this assumption. This can be achieved in RGA by looking at the statistical test results and at the System Operation plot.
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To view the statistical test results, choose Data > Statistical Tests. The Results Panel will appear, as shown next.
The statistical tests results indicate that System 4 has failed the Cramr-von Mises goodness-of-fit test. In addition, the Laplace Trend test suggests a deteriorating system.
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To get a better look at the individual systems on the plot, remove the Equivalent system time line from the plot by choosing Plot > Plot Systems. The Select Systems to Plot window will appear, as shown next.
To remove the Equivalent system time line from the plot, clear the Plot System Time Line option and click OK.
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The plot will be refreshed without the Equivalent system time line, as shown next.
As can be seen in the plot, System 4 appears to have a very different behavior than the rest of the systems. It appears that the failure intensity increases with time. An investigation into the reasons why the failure intensity increases with time for System 4 begins. Meanwhile, the engineers decide to proceed with the analysis and temporarily remove System 4 from the data set until the investigation is complete.
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In the Advanced Systems View Explorer, clear the check box to the left of System 4 to remove it from the analysis. Recalculate the parameters, as shown next.
View the statistical test results again by choosing Data > Statistical Tests. The Results Panel will appear, as shown next.
Notice that System 4 is not included in the results since it was removed from the analysis.
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Close the Results Panel and open the QCP. To calculate the instantaneous demonstrated MTBF at the termination time (2435 hours, which is the sum of the end times of the five systems that remain in the analysis), open the QCP. On the Basic Calculations page, make the following selections/inputs:
Confidence Bounds:
The demonstrated MTBF is found to be 40.9830 hours. This is also shown in the Results area of the Standard Folio Control Panel as the DMTBF.
Close the QCP. Close the Folio.4 Save the project as Multiple Systems - Concurrent Times.rga7. Close the project.
4.
Note that upon further investigation, it turns out that several failures were not reported for System 4 and this is why the failure intensity for this system exhibited a different trend. If the missing failure times can be obtained, the analysis could be repeated with the updated data set.
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4.10 Example 9 - Reliability Growth Analysis Based on Fleet Data from Fielded Systems
4.10 Example 9 - Reliability Growth Analysis Based on Fleet Data from Fielded Systems
The failure history for the last completed cycle is recorded for a fleet of 27 repairable systems. A cycle is defined as a complete history from overhaul to overhaul. These systems are randomly selected and information is recorded in the order that the systems were selected. The data set includes the time of each failure along with the failure mode and whether it will be corrected in the revised design. The purpose of this analysis is to investigate the effect of possible reliability improvements after delayed fixes are implemented.
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Tables of the data recorded for the systems are given next. System Time to Event Mode System Start 0 1 Failure 1,396 BD1 15 End 1,396 Start 0 2 Failure 4,497 BD2 16 End 4,497 Start 0 3 Failure 525 A End 525 17 Start 0 4 Failure 1,232 BD3 End 1,232 Start 0 18 5 Failure 227 BD4 End 227 Start 0 19 6 Failure 135 BD2 End 135 Start 0 20 7 Failure 19 BD2 End 19 Start 0 8 Failure 812 BD1 End 812 21 Start 0 9 Failure 2,024 BD1 End 2,024 22 Start 0 316 BD5 10 Failure 943 A End 943 23 Start 0 11 Failure 60 BD1 End 60 24 Start 0 4,233 BD2 12 Failure 4,234 BD6 25 End 4,234 Start 0 1,877 BD7 13 Failure 2,527 BD2 26 End 2,527 Start 0 2,074 BD4 27 14 Failure 2,105 BD2 End 2,105 Do the following:
Time to Event Start 0 Failure 5,079 End 5,079 Start 0 546 Failure 577 End 577 Start 0 453 Failure 4,085 End 4,085 Start 0 Failure 1,023 End 1,023 Start 0 Failure 161 End 161 Start 0 36 Failure 4,767 End 4,767 Start 0 3,795 Failure 4,375 6,228 End 6,228 Start 0 Failure 68 End 68 Start 0 Failure 1,830 End 1,830 Start 0 Failure 1,241 End 1,241 Start 0 871 Failure 2,573 End 2,573 Start 0 Failure 3,556 End 3,556 Start 0 Failure 186 End 186
Mode BD1
BD1 A
BD8 BD1
BD3
BD2 BD1
BD10
BD1
BD11
BD12 BD1
BD13
BD2
Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the Fleet data type. Group the data into intervals of 10,000, 20,000, 30,000 and 40,000 hours. The final interval is defined by the termination time: 52,110 hours.
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4.10 Example 9 - Reliability Growth Analysis Based on Fleet Data from Fielded Systems
Define the effectiveness factors for the unique BD modes. Calculate the parameters using the Crow Extended model. Use the QCP to predict the improvement in the fleet MTBF after the delayed fixes are implemented. Show the improvement graphically.
Solution The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Fleet Reliability Growth Example.rga7.
Create a new project with a Standard Folio and a Data Sheet for fielded fleet data, as shown next.
Select Crow Extended as the model. This will automatically add columns to the Data Sheet for entering the failure classification and mode.
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Enter the data into the Data Sheet5, using the Advanced System View, as shown next (with the sheet for System 1 visible and the data for the other systems on subsequent sheets).6
Click Calculate.
The Group Data window will appear, which allows you to group the data in the Data Sheet into specified intervals. The intervals help to smooth out the differences in the data points. As the data set is cumulative, the maximum value is 52,110 hours, so you will create intervals of 10,000 hours for each of the first four intervals. The last interval contains the remaining data.
5. Instead of typing the data by hand, you can switch to the Normal View, open the Fleet Reliability Growth Example.rga7 file, switch to the Normal View in it, and then copy and paste the data into your file. 6. If your Data Sheet is in the normal view, click the Switch Systems View icon or choose Systems > Systems View > Advanced Systems View.
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4.10 Example 9 - Reliability Growth Analysis Based on Fleet Data from Fielded Systems
Enter 10000, 20000, 30000 and 40000 into the Intervals area, as shown next.
Note: Using this method results Phase 4 lasting for 12,110 hours. If instead you had specified a Constant value of 10,000 hours, Phase 4 would only have lasted for 10,000 hours and a new Phase 5, lasting for 2110 hours, would be included. While this has no effect on the Calculated Results, it does have a slight effect on the Projected MTBF for the system.
The final interval is determined by the termination time, which is displayed at the bottom of the window. For this example, it is 52,110 hours.
Click OK. A window will appear notifying you that all unique BD modes have not been given a valid effectiveness factor, as shown next.
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At the top of the Effectiveness Factor window, click the Use Fixed Effectiveness Factor button and enter 0.5 into the input box to the right, as shown next. This indicates that the delayed fixes for all of the failure modes identified in the data are expected to have the same degree of improvement (0.5).
Next, open the QCP. The calculations on the Extended Calculations page of the QCP are available for data sets that have been analyzed using the Crow Extended model, provided that there are BD failure modes in the data set On the Extended Calculations page, make the following selections/inputs:
Type: None
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4.10 Example 9 - Reliability Growth Analysis Based on Fleet Data from Fielded Systems
The demonstrated MTBF (i.e. without the improvements) is found to be about 1,408 hours. This can also be found in the Results area of the Standard Folio Control Panel as the DMTBF.
The projected MTBF also can be calculated by selecting the Projected calculation option, as shown next.
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The improvement in the fleet MTBF after the delayed fixes are implemented (i.e. the Projected MTBF) is 638.823 hours, which is the Projected value of 2047.2014 hours minus the Demonstrated value of 1408.3784 hours.
Next, calculate the growth potential MTBF by selecting the Growth Potential calculation option, as shown next.
The growth potential MTBF (the maximum achievable MTBF value with the current management decisions about which modes to fix) is found to be about 2,542 hours.
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Create a Growth Potential MTBF plot of all three results, as shown next.
Close the Folio. Save the project as Fleet Reliability Growth.rga7. Close the project.
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Assume that the following data set is extracted from the FRACAS system: Failures in Interval 45 34 25 17 21 14 10 Days of Testing 5 10 15 20 23 26 28
The data set is grouped by the number of days until a new compile of the software is available. Do the following:
Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the Grouped Failure Times data type. Calculate the parameters using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model. Use the QCP to estimate the demonstrated failure intensity. Determine when the goal of no more than three faults per day will be achieved and how many days of developmental testing are required.
Solution The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Software Reliability Growth Example.rga7.
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Create a new project with a Standard Folio and a Standard Folio for grouped failure times, as shown next.
Enter the data into the Data Sheet. Calculate the parameters using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model, as shown next.
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Use the QCP to estimate the instantaneous failure intensity demonstrated after 28 days of testing, as shown next.
Currently, the demonstrated failure intensity is 4.4947 faults per day. Therefore, the question is: If we continue testing with the same growth rate, when will we achieve the goal of no more than three faults per day?
Use the Time/Stage given Instantaneous Failure Intensity calculation option to answer this question, as shown next.
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Therefore, 149 - 28 = 121 additional days of testing and development (test-analyze-and-fix) are required to achieve the failure intensity goal. This is much more time than the analysts anticipated so they decide to take a closer look.
Close the QCP, then plot the Failure Intensity vs. Time. On the Plot Sheet Control Panel, clear the Use Logarithmic Axes check box. If Auto Refresh is selected, the plot will automatically refresh itself; otherwise you will have to click the Refresh Plot icon on the Control Panel. Your plot will look like the one shown next.
From this plot, it can be seen that there is a jump in the failure intensity between 20 and 23 days. This is the reason why it is estimated that more development time is required. Therefore, the next step is to analyze the data set for the period up to 20 days of testing.
To do this, insert a new Data Sheet into the current Standard Folio by choosing Folio > Insert Data Sheet. The New Data Sheet Setup window will appear. Select Grouped Failure Times and click OK.7 Enter the data set for up to 20 days of testing into the new Data Sheet, Data 2. You can either copy the data from the Data 1 sheet and paste it into the Data 2 sheet or re-enter the data.
7.
Note that you can also create a copy of the Data 1 Data Sheet and delete the last three rows of data. If you do so, you can rename the new Data Sheet to Data 2.
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Calculate the parameters using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model, as shown next.
Plot the Failure Intensity vs. Time for Data 2. On the Plot Sheet Control Panel, clear the Use Logarithmic Axes check box. Your plot will look like the one shown next.
This plot shows the decrease in the failure intensity rate over the first 20 days of testing.
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Re-open the QCP and calculate the additional days of testing and development that are required to achieve the failure intensity goal based on the first 20 days of test data, as shown next.
The calculation indicates that a total of 55 days of testing are required. Since we have already completed 28 days of testing, this indicates that only 27 more days would be required based on the analysis from the 20th day of testing. This is much different than the result obtained from the analysis of the full data set. So the question is: What happened when the failure intensity jumped on the 23rd day of testing and development? It turns out that new functionality was implemented at the request of a customer, which caused major redesign on some general modules of the software. This type of jump is typical in both software and hardware development when new features are introduced and observed. Due to these significant changes, it is decided that the clock should be reset and the analysts should track the reliability growth from the 20th day forward. In other words, the origin of the test is set at 20 days and the data thereafter are considered as follows: Failures in Interval 21 14 10
Days of Testing 3 6 8
Close the QCP and insert another Data Sheet for grouped failure times into the current Standard Folio by choosing Folio >Insert Data Sheet.
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Enter the data set from the previous table into the new Data Sheet, Data 3, and calculate the parameters using the Crow-AMSAA (NHPP) model, as shown next.
Plot the Failure Intensity vs. Time for Data 3 and clear the Use Logarithmic Axes check box. The plot will look like the one shown next.
This plot shows the decrease in the failure intensity rate over the last 8 days of testing.
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Re-open the QCP and calculate the additional days of testing and development that are required to achieve the failure intensity goal based on the analysis from days 20 through 28 of the testing, as shown next.
Therefore, when considering this data set, 51 - 8 = 43 more days of developmental testing are required. Of course, it is too early to make any predictions based on just 8 days of testing, but this result can be used to get a general idea of the remaining development time required and to come up with a new testing plan. In this case, it is decided that three more employees need to be added to testing and, if possible, that a new compile needs to be created every two days. This yields a much more aggressive testing and development program with the objective of completing the project within one month.
Close the QCP. Close the Folio. Save the project as Software Reliability Growth.rga7. Close the project.
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RGA provides functionality that helps the analyst to ensure that testing is representative of the expected conditions of actual use. In this example, a Multi-Function Printer (MFP) under development was tested for 7200 hours. The MFP has three distinct functions that need to be tested:
To ensure that the test was balanced, the reliability team decided to use operational mission profiles for all three functions to be tested. They decided to require convergence points at times T=2500, 5000 and 7200 hours. (A convergence point is a time during the test when all the operational mission profile tasks meet their expected averages or fall within an acceptable range.) They have the test data in a Microsoft Excel file. Do the following:
Import the Mission Profile data from another RGA file. Import the test data from Microsoft Excel. Associate the test data with the mission profile data. Calculate the parameters using the Crow Extended model. View the results.
Solution The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Mission Profile Example.rga7.
Create a new project and click Cancel in the New Data Sheet Setup window that displays. This will create a project with no Folios.
For this example, you will import the mission profile data from another project.
Choose Project > Import. In the window that appears, navigate to the Mission Profile Example Phase Data.rga7 file, which is located in the Training Guide folder within your application directory
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(e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and click Open to select the file. The Import window displays, as shown next.
Select the Mission Profile check box and then click OK. The Mission Profile1 Folio is added to your project. In the Project Explorer, double-click the Mission Profile1 Folio to open it. The first sheet in the Folio will look like the one shown next.
The Printing, Copying and Faxing Data Sheets show the expected usage and the actual usage for their respective functions.
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The Mission Profile window looks like the one shown next.
The Expected Usage line shows what you expected the printer usage to be while the Actual Usage line shows the printer usage as given during the test.
In the Show area, select the Intervals check box and in the Available Profile Sheets area, select the Copying and Faxing check boxes.
The plot shows that at the three convergence points (intervals) the actual and expected results for each of the three profiles are equal.
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The failure times observed during the test were entered in a Microsoft Excel file. The file contains the data that should be entered in a Failure Times Folio in RGA. Column A contains the Time to Event data; column B the Classification data; and column C contains the Mode data.
To import the data from Excel, choose Project > Import. In the Files of type field select Excel Files (*.xls). Browse for the Multi-Function Printer Data.xls file, which is located in the Training Guide folder within your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and click Open. The File Import Wizard window displays.
Select Import Sheet in the Control Panel. In the Data Type field select Failure Times. This sets the Folio type. The spreadsheet on the left side of the utility displays the data from the file. The buttons on the right side of the utility represent the columns available in the RGA Folio. To use the utility, match each column of data from the original file to a column available in the RGA Folio by selecting the column in the spreadsheet and then clicking a button.
Select Column A, then click Time to Event. This specifies the type of data in the column.
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Continue to set the other columns in this manner. Once you have set the columns, the File Import Wizard window will look like this:
Note: In many cases, the imported data includes additional comments in another column. While this example file does not include any comments, if the sheet you are importing data from does, you would mark the column(s) with the Comment button during the import.
Click the Save Import Mapping icon on the File Import Wizard Control Panel and save the import mapping template that you have created as Mission Profile. Use the default file type and save it in the default location. This allows you to use the same import mapping again if you ever need to import failure time data from an Excel file that follows the same format. Click the Import icon on the File Import Wizards toolbar to import the data into a new Folio.
Associating the Multi-Function Printer Data Folio with the Mission Profile1 Folio groups the data based on the convergence points specified in the Mission Profile.
To associate the Multi-Function Printer Data Folio with the Mission Profile Folio, click the Mission Profile Analysis icon.
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In the Available Profiles field, choose Mission Profile1, then click OK. A new Data Sheet containing the grouped data, called Mission Profile1 - Multi-Function Printer Data, is added to the Folio.
Click the Effectiveness Factors icon and enter the effectiveness factor for each BD mode, as shown next.
Set the Test Termination to Time Terminated and specify a termination time of 7200 hours.
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The objective of this process is that we are able to apply the Crow Extended model directly in such a way that the projection and other key reliability growth parameters can be estimated in a valid fashion. To do this, grouped data is applied with intervals at the convergence points of the associated mission profiles. This way, it is assured that the respective mission profile usage for each of the profiles meets its expected value at the specified intervals and any variations in between intervals are smoothed out.
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Note that the plot shows both the Cumulative MTBF line and the Instantaneous MTBF line. To hide the Instantaneous MTBF line, choose Plot > Show/Hide Items. In the Show/Hide Items window that appears, clear the Instantaneous MTBF check box, then click OK. To plot the confidence bounds for the cumulative data, choose Plot > Confidence Bounds. In the Confidence Bounds Setup window that appears, do the following:
Select the Two-Sided option in the Sides area. Select the Function Type II (MTBF bounds on mode) option in the Type area. Clear the Instantaneous Line check box. Enter 90 in the Confidence Level field. The Confidence Bounds window will look like the one shown next.
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Click OK to close the window. The Plot window will look like the one shown next.
Close the Folio. Save the project as Mission Profile.rga7. Close the project.
4.13 Example 12 - Working with MultiPhase Tests, Growth Planning and Design of Reliability Tests
As shown in Example 7 - Using the Crow Extended Model for Reliability Growth Test Planning on page 48, the Crow Extended model is designed for analyzing the data from a single test phase. However, in many cases, testing for a system is conducted in multiple phases. The Crow Extended - Continuous Evaluation model is designed for analyzing data across multiple test phases. The 3-parameter Crow-Extended - Continuous Evaluation model is designed for the practical testing situation where you need the flexibility to apply corrective actions at the time of the failure or at any later time during the test, at the end of the test or at the next test phase. The model is free of the constraint that testing must be stopped and all BD modes must be corrected at time T, as in the Crow Extended model. The failure modes can be corrected during the test or when the testing is stopped to incorporate the fixes, or even not corrected at all at the end of the test phase. Based on this flexibility, the end of the testing time is also not predefined, and it can be continuously updated with new test data, and that is the reason behind the name continuous evaluation. The model uses several event codes:
F indicates a failure time. I indicates the time at which a certain BD failure mode has been corrected. BD modes that have not received a corrective action by time T will not have an associated I event in the data set.
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4.13 Example 12 - Working with MultiPhase Tests, Growth Planning and Design of Reliability Tests
Q indicates a failure that was due to a quality issue, such as a bolt not being tightened down properly. You decide whether or not to include quality issues in the analysis by selecting or clearing the Include Q Events check box on the Analysis tab of the Folios Control Panel. P indicates a failure that was due to a performance issue. You decide whether or not to include performance issues in the analysis by selecting or clearing the Include P Events check box on the Analysis tab of the Folios Control Panel. AP indicates an analysis point. Analysis points can be shown in a multi-phase plot to track overall project progress and can be compared to an idealized growth curve. PH indicates the end of a test phase. Tests phases can be shown in a multi-phase plot to track overall project progress and can be compared to planned growth phases. X indicates that the data point should be excluded from the analysis. You can put an X in front of any other event code or it can be entered by itself.
The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Growth Planning Example.rga7.
The average fix delay for the three phases are 1000, 1500 and 3700 hours, respectively. The average fix delay reflects how long it takes from the time when a failure mode is discovered in the test to the time when the corrective action is incorporated into the design and reliability growth is realized. These values are also entered in terms of test time rather than calendar time and they will be reflected in the idealized growth curve for the test plan. For this specific example, the average fix delay is shorter for early test phases, since, in this case, it is considered to be easier to implement changes in the test units in the early phases and longer in the later test phases when it is considered to be more difficult. The MTBF goal for the program is 350 hours. The Growth Potential (GP) design margin is considered to be 1.35. (The GP design margin is an amount by which the MTBF target exceeds the requirement or goal MTBF. This provides a safety factor to ensure that the requirement is met; the higher the GP design margin, the less risk there is in the program.) The average Effectiveness Factor is considered to be 0.6, based on experience with previous programs. The management strategy is to address at least 90% of all unique failure modes. The beta parameter for the rate of discovery of new failure modes (Discovery beta) is considered to be 0.7. (The discovery function represents the rate at which new, distinct failure modes are encountered during testing.) Based on these assumptions, you will create an overall growth planning model that shows the nominal and actual idealized growth curve and the planned growth MTBF for each phase. For this part, do the following:
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Solution
Create a new project and click Cancel in the New Data Sheet Setup window that displays. This will create a project with no folios. To create a Growth Planning Folio, choose Project > Add Growth Planning. The Growth Planning Folio displays.
Enter 3000, 6000 and 11000 for the Cumulative Phase Times and 1000, 1500 and 3700 for the Average Phase Delays, as shown next.
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4.13 Example 12 - Working with MultiPhase Tests, Growth Planning and Design of Reliability Tests
The Planning Calculations window displays. Make the required inputs, as shown next, and then click Calculate.
As you can see, given the MTBF goal and design margin that you specified, along with the other required inputs to describe the planned reliability growth management strategy, the utility calculates the final MTBF that can be achieved along with other useful results.
Click OK to close the window. The planning information is now displayed in the Growth Planning Folios Control Panel, as shown next.
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The Growth Planning window looks like the one shown next.
The plot displays the MTBF vs. Time values for the three phases that you have planned for the test.
Close the Growth Planning Folio. Save the project as Growth Planning.rga7.
4.13.2 Part 2: Working with Failure Time Data from Multiple Test Phases
The following table gives the data from the three phases of testing. Note that due to the amount of information, the table extends to the following pages. Phase (Not in Event Time to Event Classification Mode the Interface) 1 F 1 A 1 1 F 302 BD 3000 1 F 450 BC 401 1 Q 534 A 5 1 F 599 BC 200 1 F 602 A 1 1 F 657 BD 5000 1 F 700 BC 400 1 F 800 BD 9000 1 AP 1000 1 F 1057 BC 600 1 F 1111 A 1 1 F 1151 BD 5000 1 F 1201 A 4 1 F 1237 BD 5000 1 F 1298 BC 400 1 AP 2000 1 F 2367 BD 8000 1 F 2401 A 1 1 F 2458 A 4 1 F 2667 BD 5000 1 F 2856 A 1
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4.13 Example 12 - Working with MultiPhase Tests, Growth Planning and Design of Reliability Tests
Event PH F F X F F F F F AP F I F F F F AP F F F F PH P I AP F F F AP F F F F F F AP I F AP F F PH
Time to Event 3000 3121 3359 3400 3451 3501 3670 3703 3780 4000 4615 4689 4710 4750 4762 4915 5000 5075 5356 5658 5954 6000 6113 6959 7000 7352 7448 7847 8000 8169 8195 8200 8228 8306 8959 9000 9358 9916 10000 10083 10500 11000
Classification BD BC A A BC BD BC BD A BD BC A BC BD BC BC BD BD BD BD BD A A BC BD A BC BD BC BD BD A BD
Mode 5000 700 5 1 600 8000 100 5000 2 8000 700 4 400 1300 110 120 5000 1300 2000 1300 1400 2 3 160 1400 1 900 5000 400 5000 1500 2 9000
In this data set, you can see that I (implementation) events have been entered for some of the BD (delayed fix) failure modes. For example, the BD 8000 failure mode was first observed at 2367 cumulative test hours and then occurred again at 3670 hours. The I event at 4689 cumulative test hours indicates that the fix for this failure mode was implemented into all test units at that point. With this information, the Crow Extended - Continuous Evaluation model will be able to evaluate the impact of this fix without any additional input from the user. However, there are some BD failure modes in the data set that do not have associated I events in the data. For these modes, it is assumed that the fix either was not implemented or it was implemented between test phases. For those modes, the user must specify which phase the fix was implemented after (if any) and the effectiveness factor. The following table gives this information for the BD failure modes that
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did not have an associated I event during the three test phases. As you can see, the fixes for BD 3000 and BD 9000 still had not been implemented by the end of the test program but the fixes for BD 1400 and BD 1500 were implemented after the end of Phase 3. BD Mode 3000 9000 1400 1500 For this part, do the following:
Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the multi-phase Failure Times data type. Create the appropriate Data Sheet for multi-phase data. Calculate the parameters using the Crow Extended - Continuous Evaluation model. Plot the Growth Potential MTBF, Failure Mode Strategy, Rate of Discovery and Individual Mode MTBF plots. Generate the Event Report. Use the QCP to calculate the Discovery Rate and Parameter Bounds. Associate the Testing data and the Growth Planning data in a MultiPhase plot.
Solution
Choose File > User Setup. On the Calculations page, select Calculate Unbiased Beta, then click OK.
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4.13 Example 12 - Working with MultiPhase Tests, Growth Planning and Design of Reliability Tests
Create a new Standard Folio and a Data Sheet for multi-phase failure times data, as shown next.
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Your Data Sheet will look like the one shown next. (Please note that the following picture displays only 27 rows of data. Be sure to enter all of the data for this example as given in the table on page 100. Your Data Sheet will contain 64 rows of data.)
Go to the Standard Folio Control Panels Analysis page by clicking the Analysis tab. Notice that the Include Q Events and Include P Events check boxes are selected by default. Clear the Include Q Events and Include P Events options. This excludes the Q (quality) and P (performance) events from the analysis. (If Include Q Events and Include P Events are selected those failures are treated as F-type failures for calculation purposes.)
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4.13 Example 12 - Working with MultiPhase Tests, Growth Planning and Design of Reliability Tests
By omitting, or commenting out, these events from the analysis, you indicate that the problems are not reliability-related, but rather are quality and/or performance issues.
Return to the Standard Folio Control Panels Main page. Enter the effectiveness factors for the BD modes that did not have associated I events in the data set and specify their implementation times, as shown next.
Now calculate the parameters using the Crow Extended - Continuous Evaluation model, as shown next.
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The Growth Potential MTBF plot displays three lines: the demonstrated MTBF, the projected MTBF and the growth potential MTBF. The demonstrated MTBF line represents the MTBF at the end of the test without any corrective actions. The projected MTBF line displays the estimated MTBF after the delayed corrective actions have been implemented. The growth potential MTBF line represents the maximum achievable MTBF based on the current management strategy. If the MTBF goal is higher than the Growth Potential line, then this indicates that the current design cannot achieve the desired goal and a redesign or change of goals may be required. For this example, the goal MTBF of 350 hours is well within the growth potential and is expected to be achieved after the implementation of the delayed BD fixes.
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4.13 Example 12 - Working with MultiPhase Tests, Growth Planning and Design of Reliability Tests
The Unseen modes percentages are based on the rate of discovery of the failure modes in the data. This gives an estimate of how many new failure modes you may find if you continue to test. While this is not a guarantee that you will see new modes, it is possible based on the rate at which you discovered the current ones.
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This chart shows the MTBF for the individual modes seen before and after the test. Since the modes BD 1400, BD 1500, BD 3000 and BD 9000 received delayed fixes at the end of the test, as specified in the Effectiveness Factors window, they show an increase in their individual MTBF values. The BD modes that had an I event (an implemented fix) during the test are treated as BC modes (corrective action implemented during the test) for calculation purposes so they do not show a jump in the MTBF after the end of the test.
Return to the Data Sheet. Now create the Event Report. To do this, choose Data > Event Report or click the Event Report icon.
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4.13 Example 12 - Working with MultiPhase Tests, Growth Planning and Design of Reliability Tests
The Event Report lists all of the unique failure modes that were reflected in the test data. The report includes the mode ID and classification along with the time of the first failure and the total number of failures due to each mode. The last three columns in this report are applicable only for BD failure modes that were not fixed at a specific time during one of the test phases (i.e. without an associated I event). The additional columns present the Effectiveness Factors defined for these modes and which phase the fix was implemented after (if any). The Effectiveness Factor is not considered in the analysis until the point at which the fix has been implemented and reliability growth occurs. Prior to the implementation of the fix, this is called the Nominal EF and the Actual EF for analysis purposes is 0. After the implementation of the fix, the Nominal EF and Actual EF are the same.
Close the Event Report window. Next, open the QCP. On the Multi-Phase Calculations page, make the following selections/inputs:
Confidence Bounds:
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This shows the rate of discovery of new unseen BD modes at 1000 hours is 0.0011 per hour.
Next, to view the two-sided parameter bounds for Beta, click the Parameter Bounds icon.
This shows that both Beta bounds are less than 1, which indicates that there is growth in the system.
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4.13 Example 12 - Working with MultiPhase Tests, Growth Planning and Design of Reliability Tests
Next, you will create a MultiPhase plot and compare the Standard Folio with the Growth Planning Folio to track the developmental test data and how closely it fits to the overall reliability growth program plan.
Choose Project > Add Additional Plot > Add MultiPhase Plot. The MultiPhase Plot Wizard window displays.
Select Multi-Phase on the first page of the wizard, then click Next. In the Multi-Phase Data Sheet area, click ... to open the Data Sheet Selection window. Click the Data 1 check box, as shown next.
Click OK to select the Data 1 Folio. In the Planning Folio, click ... and, in the Select Planning Folio window, select Planning Data Folio, then click OK.
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Click Finish. The MultiPhase Plot window displays. In the Set Phases area, first clear all check boxes, then, in the Phases area, select the Phase Termination Line check box. In the Analysis Points area, select the Demonstrated, Projected and Growth Potential check boxes. In the Planning area, select the Nominal Idealized and Actual Idealized check boxes. In the Scaling area, clear the XAxis check box. Next, enter 0 for the lower X-axis and 11000 for the upper X-axis, then press ENTER.
The plot show the Nominal and Actual Planning curves as well as the actual test data, in terms of analysis points of the demonstrated, projected and growth potential MTBF values. The phase termination lines are also shown. The plot also demonstrates that the MTBF goal is met at the end of the last phase.
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4.13 Example 12 - Working with MultiPhase Tests, Growth Planning and Design of Reliability Tests
4.13.3 Part 3: Using Design of Reliability Tests to Demonstrate the Reliability of a System
In Parts 1 and 2 you used the Crow Extended - Continuous Evaluation model to track the developmental test data and evaluate how closely it fit the overall reliability growth program plan. In this case, the multi-phase analysis shows that the target MTBF goal was within the target range and achieved after the implementation of delayed fixes. Now you will assume that the developmental testing phase is complete and that a demonstration phase will be performed to assure customers that the MTBF for the final product has been reached before shipping. As stated in Part 1, the MTBF goal was 350 hours. You need to design a reliability demonstration test to demonstrate this goal for the final product and provide your management with an estimate of the total number of units that should be tested. You can do this by using the new Repairable Systems - Design of Reliability Tests utility in RGA 7. Since the product is assumed to be stable, with no more developmental changes, the assumed value for Beta is 1. You will use a confidence level of 95%. You also know that because of scheduling constraints, you can afford to spend only about 1000 test hours per unit. You also decide to allow for a maximum of 3 total failures across all systems being observed during the test. Note that this example is for a repairable system and therefore it is not appropriate to use the parametric binomial, non-parametric binomial or exponential chi-squared methods that are typically used for designing reliability demonstration tests for non-repairable items. Instead, you can use a method based on the nonhomogeneous Poisson process that is suitable for tests involving repairable systems. For this part, do the following:
Open the DRT utility and make the required inputs. View the results. Consider a range of other test options and plot the results.
Solution
To open the utility, choose Tools > Repairable Systems DRT or click the Repairable Systems DRT icon.
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Click Calculate. The results indicate that you will need to test 3 units for 1000 hours each in order to demonstrate a cumulative MTBF of 350 hours with 95% confidence. Click Plot to open the Repairable Systems DRT Results window, then click the Calculate icon. The table shows a range of other options for the number of units and allowable failures. For example, if you were to test more than 4 units, e.g. 6 units, then you can decrease your testing time to approximately 453 hours and still demonstrate the MTBF goal with no more than 3 failures.
Notice that the table is based on the values set in the Table/Plot Setup area. You define the range of results you want to generate there. While this example uses the default values, you can experiment with different values to see what other options are possible.
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Click the Select Failures check box to display the plots for all defined numbers of failures.
Close the Repairable Systems DRT Results window and close the Repairable Systems - Design of Reliability Tests window. Save the project. Close the project. Choose File > User Setup. On the Calculations page, clear the Calculate Unbiased Beta check box, then click OK.
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Car 29 31 32 34 35 98 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 129 130 131 132 133
Mileage (+ latest mileage observed) 530 21,762+ 14,235+ 1,388 21,401+ 21,876+ 5,094 21,691+ 20,890+ 22,486+ 19,321+ 21,585+ 18,676+ 23,520+ 17,955+ 19,507+ 24,177+ 22,854+ 17,844+ 22,637+ 375 19,403+ 20,997+ 19,175+ 20,425+ 22,149+ 21,144+ 21,237+ 14,281+ 8250 19,250 21,974+ 21,888+ 19,607+ 18,228+ 21,133+ 25,660+
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Do the following:
Create a Standard Folio with a Data Sheet for the Repairable data type. Calculate the parameters using the Power Law model. Plot the instantaneous Failure Intensity vs. Time. Plot the cumulative Number of Failures vs. Time. Use the QCP to determine the number of warranty claims for a 36,000 mile warranty policy for an estimated fleet of 35,000 vehicles.
Solution The file for this example is located in the Training Guide folder in your application directory (e.g. C:\Program Files\ReliaSoft\RGA7\Training Guide) and is named Repairable System Example.rga7.
Create a new project with a Standard Folio and a Data Sheet for fielded repairable systems, as shown next.
For this example, the start time for all cars is 0. The end time is the latest mileage observed for the car. The failure times are the car mileage at each transmission repair.
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Enter the data into the Data Sheet, using the Advanced System View, as shown next (with the sheet for Car 24 visible and the data for the other cars on subsequent sheets).
Now calculate the parameters using the Power Law model, as shown next.
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The beta parameter of the power law model is estimated to be 0.3420, which indicates a rapidly decreasing failure intensity (infant mortality).
This also can be shown by creating the Failure Intensity vs. Time plot, as shown next. Please note that you will have to change the scaling to get the plot to look like the one shown next. To do this, clear the Use Logarithmic Axes check box and the YAxis check box in the Scaling area on the Plot Sheet Control Panel. Next, enter 0 for the lower Y-axis and 0.00016 for the upper y-axis, then press ENTER.
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Next, enter 1 in the upper Y-Axis scaling box and then plot the Cumulative Number of Failures, as shown next.
Use the QCP to obtain the expected number of failures at 36,000 miles, as shown next.
The model predicts that 0.3552 failures per system will occur by 36,000 miles. This means that for a fleet of 35,000 vehicles, the expected warranty claims are 0.3552 x 35,000 = 12,432.
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Close the Folio. Save the project as Repairable System.rga7. Close the project.
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