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5 Delphi Method
The Delphi Method is a group decision making technique developed as part of an Air Forcesponsored Rand Corporation study in the early 1950's. The Delphi Method seeks to achieve a consensus among group members through a series of questionnaires.

The Delphi Method

The Delphi Method seeks to achieve a consensus among group members through a series of anonymous questionnaires.

The questionnaires are answered anonymously and individually by each member of the group. The answers are summarized and sent back to the group members along with the next questionnaire. This process is repeated until a group consensus is reached. This usually only takes two iterations, but can sometimes take as many as six rounds before a consensus is reached.

The Delphi Method

THE DELPHI PROCESS
QUESTIONNAIRE DEVELOPED
2- 4 ITERATIONS UNTIL A CONSENSUS IS REACHED

QUESTIONNAIRE ANSWERED

ANSWERS SUMMARIZED

When Should You Use the Delphi Method ?

When the number of participants make face-to-face meetings impossible. When the group members are scattered across a large geographic area. When face-to-face meetings are being dominated by one individual. When accurate information is not available or expensive to collect.

An Example of the Delphi Method The National Materials Advisory Board (NMAB) of the National Academies of Science and Engineering used the Delphi Method in 1970 to determine if there might be a shortage of critical and strategic materials within the next ten to twenty years. One hundred respondents were chosen from all sectors of the industry such as universities, producers, technical journals, and the

Government. Of the one hundred selected, only thirty-four agreed to cooperate; of those, twenty-eight participated throughout the entire survey. The Delphi ran for three rounds and took approximately forty-six weeks to complete. In the first round the respondents were given graphs showing various trends in the steel industry. The respondent was asked to extend the trend line on the graph to 1985. The following three questions were then asked: 1. How reliable do you consider your extension to be? 2. What key developments did you assume in making your extension? 3. What other developments might result in major revisions of your extension? In round two all graphs returned by the respondents in round one were sent out along with 116 assumptions and developments obtained from questions two and three of the survey. The respondents were asked to give each of these assumptions and considerations a validity score. Graphs summarizing the results of round one were also sent out and the respondents were asked to re-evaluate their previous extensions and the same three basic questions were asked. In round three, the final round, summaries of round two were sent to the respondents showing the mean and standard deviation. The respondents were asked to re-evaluate all new assumptions revealed in round two and those from round one that had a large standard deviation and again assign a validity score. The results from the Delphi Method were compared with those determined by a separate panel of experts also assembled by the NMAB. While the Delphi Method had a much broader scope than that of the panel's, in areas of overlap the results were strikingly similar, as seen in the following chart:
DELPHI METHOD RESULTS VS. PANEL REPORT Predicted Consumption (In Short Tons) Delphi Panel

Material

Chromium Cobalt Columbian Nickel Tungsten

319,260 2,732 1,977 124,200 1,850

250,000-303,000 3,000-4,000 1,300-1,850 90,000-115,000 1,550-2,600

Adapted from: Linstone, Harold A. and Murray Turoff, ed. The Delphi Method, pp. 210-226.