Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Dealers Diary
The domestic markets are expected to open flat with a positive bias tracing positive
trades across most of the Asian bourses and the SGX Nifty amid speculation that
China will do more to boost its economy.
Globally, US markets remained closed on Monday due to Memorial Day holiday.
While, most of the European markets edged higher on Monday, but ended the day
mixed, as investor sentiment were affected on opinion polls showing a lead for
Greece's pro-bailout conservatives and reports that Europe is preparing a new
rescue fund to seize control of struggling banks across the continent.
Meanwhile, Indian benchmark indices rallied on Monday, as the government's
refusal to roll back the petrol price hike despite continued protests and the
strengthening of rupee for a third day in a row triggered hectic short covering
ahead of the near-month futures and options contracts expiry.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,377 / 4,971 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 16,480 16,543 / 5,010 5,034 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
16,210 / 4,971 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
16,314 16,210 / 4,946 4,907 levels.
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
16,210
16,314
16,377
16,480
16,543
NIFTY
4,907
4,946
4,971
5,010
5,034
News Analysis
Delhi Government slashes Petrol Prices by `1.26/ltr

4QFY2012 Result Reviews Coal India, NMDC, Bharat Forge, Britannia,
Amara Raja Batteries, Bajaj Electricals, Sadbhav Engineering, Electrosteel
Castings, Indoco Remedies
4QFY2012 Result Previews ONGC, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, SAIL, IPCA
Labs, Aurobindo Pharma, NCC
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (May 25, 2012)

Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
1,192
1,556
(364)
(1340)
42,121
397
235
162
352
(5749)
FII Derivatives (May 28, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Index Futures
Net
Open Interest
3,357
Stock Futures
5,512
3,260
96
13,817
5,216
296
23,376
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Neyveli Lignite
Piramal Health
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
77
8.4
Company
Pidilite Inds
Price (`)
chg (%)
165
(3.2)
447
6.9
Gail India
328
(2.6)
1,316
6.1
BPCL
717
(1.9)
Gujarat Mnrl
173
5.8
NMDC
168
(1.8)
Voltas
107
5.0
Alstom Projects
356
(1.8)
Jubl Food
www.angelbroking.com
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
1.2
Nifty
1.3
65.3
4,986
MID CAP
1.2
71.3
5,972
SMALL CAP
0.9
55.1
6,373
BSE HC
0.6
37.3
6,677
BSE PSU
1.0
69.9
6,799
BANKEX
2.4
263.7 11,163
AUTO
1.7
161.0
METAL
1.0
99.2 10,188
OIL & GAS
0.2
14.8
7,592
BSE IT
0.7
36.4
5,559
(Pts)
(Close)
Global Indices
Chg (%)
Dow Jones
(0.6)
NASDAQ
199.0 16,417
9,400
(74.9) 12,455
(0.1)
(1.9)
2,838
FTSE
0.1
4.8
5,356
Nikkei
0.2
12.8
8,593
Hang Seng
0.5
87.6 18,801
Straits Times
0.5
14.5
2,787
Shanghai Com
1.2
27.8
2,361
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
(1.7)
(0.7)
$42.5
Indian ADRs
INFY
WIT
0.6
0.1
$8.7
IBN
(0.2)
(0.1)
$29.3
HDB
(0.6)
(0.2)
$28.6
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,689
953
Declines
1,050
478
115
76
Unchanged
` cr
MFs
Domestic Indices
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
1,595
NSE
7,387
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Delhi government slashes petrol prices by `1.26/liter

Petrol price in Delhi will be cheaper by at least `1.26 a liter, as the Delhi
government today proposed to cut 20% Value Added Tax (VAT) on petrol prices in
the capital to ease the burden on common man. The move was announced today
by Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit while presenting the budget. She said that VAT will
not be imposed on `7.50, which is the amount by which petrol prices were hiked
last week. Delhi is the third state to reduce taxes on petrol prices. Earlier, other
states like Kerala and Uttarakhand had also reduced tax on petrol to ease the
burden on consumers.
Result Reviews
Coal India (CMP- `315, TP: Under Review)
Coal Indias 4QFY2012 sales were above our expectations. Coal Indias
4QFY2012 net sales increased by 29.4% yoy to `19,419cr (above our estimate of
`17,672cr) primarily due to increased average realization. The companys EBITDA
decreased by 19% yoy to `4,353cr, representing EBITDA margin of 22.4%. Other
income grew by 57.2% yoy to `2,328cr. The company reported exceptional loss of
`45.8cr in 4QFY2012 compared to loss of `16.2cr in 4QFY2011. Adjusted net
income declined by 4.2% yoy to `4,059cr (above our estimate of `3,650cr).
We keep our view and target price under review.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY13E
50,234
28.0
10,867
17.2
36.7
17.9
5.8
10.6
3.0
FY14E
60,669
28.8
14,746
23.3
37.9
13.2
4.4
8.0
2.3
NMDC (CMP-`167, TP: Under Review)

NMDCs net sales declined by 31.2% yoy to `2,593cr (in-line our estimate of
`2,524cr) mainly due to lower iron ore realization as well as sales volume. EBITDA
declined by 28.2% yoy to `1,977cr, but EBITDA margin expanded by 463bp yoy to
76.24%. Other income grew by 23.8% yoy to `546cr. Consequently, the
companys net profit declined by 21.7% yoy to `1,642cr (above with our estimate
of `1,528cr) in 4QFY2012. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock; our target
price is under review.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY13E
11,959
78.2
7,553
19.1
27.2
8.7
2.1
4.3
3.4
FY14E
13,062
78.6
8,287
20.9
24.5
8.9
1.8
3.7
2.9
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Bharat Forge (CMP: `319, TP: Under Review)

Bharat Forge (BHFC) reported an in-line 18.9% yoy jump in standalone revenue to
`977cr, driven by a 27.7% yoy jump in exports revenue. While volume in tonnage
terms increased by 11.7% yoy to 57,248MT on strong export demand, average net
realization grew by 7.51% yoy, led by improved product mix. Strong growth in the
CV segment and non auto segment in Europe and U.S. benefitted the companys
exports performance. On the operating front, margin improved by 147bp yoy to
25.7% owing to better product mix and a decline in raw-material expenses and
other expenses. Reported net profit declined by 45.1% yoy to `55cr, mainly on
account of exceptional item of `70cr towards diminution in the carrying costs of
investments in Bharat Forge America, adjusted for that net profit would have
grown by 24.6% yoy to `125cr. The stock rating is currently under review.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY13E
7,395
16.3
520
22.3
21.0
14.3
2.8
6.8
1.1
FY14E
8,246
16.5
619
26.6
21.0
12.0
2.3
5.7
0.9
Britannia (CMP: `538, TP: `650, Upside: 20.8%)

For 4QFY2012, Britannia posted a decent growth in its net sales, of 16.8% yoy to
`1,310cr aided by price hikes and superior product mix. However, OPMs were
down by 29bp yoy to 6.14%, on account of higher Advertising and Sales
Promotion (A&P) and other expenses. A&P and Other expenses went by 95bp yoy
and 165bp yoy and stood at 8.4% and 12.5% of the sales respectively. Bottom-line
rose by 22.6% yoy to `53cr, aided by higher other income. We maintain a Buy on
the stock with a Target Price of `650.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
EV/Sales
(x)
FY13E
5,835
6.9
267
22.3
45.2
24.1
9.8
15.7
1.1
FY14E
6,773
7.0
338
28.3
44.1
19.0
7.3
13.3
0.9
Amara Raja Batteries (CMP: `308, TP: Under Review)

Amara Raja Batteries (AMRJ) posted impressive 33.6% yoy growth in its top line to
`671cr. Top-line growth was led by strong double-digit volume growth in the
industrial (telecom and UPS) and automotive (replacement) battery segments and
higher realization. Operating margin witnessed a 29bp yoy contraction to 14.2%
mainly due to a 125bp yoy expansion in other expenditure despite a yoy decline
witnessed in raw-material cost as a percentage of sales due to lower lead prices.
Led by strong operating performance and a significant increase in other income,
reported net profit registered substantial 41.8% yoy growth to `58cr. The stock
rating is under review.
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY13E
2,691
15.6
251
29.4
26.5
10.5
2.5
6.0
0.9
FY14E
3,032
15.5
280
32.8
23.6
9.4
2.0
5.1
0.8
Bajaj Electricals (CMP: `215 / TP: `245 / Upside: 14%)

Bajaj Electricals (BEL) posted modest top-line growth of 8.2% yoy to `1,060cr
(`980cr) in 4QFY2012. The lighting segment witnessed 23.1% yoy growth in
revenue to `250cr (`201cr) and the consumer durable segment managed 10.4%
yoy growth in revenue to `444cr (`402cr). The engineering and projects (E&P)
segment, however, witnessed a decline of 2.2% yoy in revenue to `368cr (`376cr).
The companys operating profit declined by 15.3% yoy to `86cr (`102cr), largely
due to margin compression. OPM fell by 225bp to 8.1% (10.4%), mainly because
of higher-than-expected other expenditure. The lighting segment witnessed a
140bp yoy increase in EBIT margin, while the consumer durable segment
witnessed a 199bp yoy contraction in EBIT margin. The E&P segment reported EBIT
of `21cr, down 48.2% yoy, while its margin declined by 497bp yoy to 5.6%
(10.6%), consequently bringing down the margin for the whole company. The
companys PAT for the quarter came in at `49cr (`57cr), down 14.7% yoy. We
have an Accumulate recommendation on the stock with a target price of `245.
Y/E
March
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
3,670
8.5
183
18.3
23.9
11.7
2.6
7.0
0.6
FY2014E
4,384
8.5
221
22.3
24.3
9.6
2.1
5.9
0.5
Sadbhav Engineering (CMP: `125 / TP: `199 / Upside: 59%)

For 4QFY2012, Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) reported a mixed set of numbers, with
revenue coming marginally higher than our estimates while earnings came in
lower than our expectations. On the top-line front, SEL reported a 13.6% yoy
decline to `905cr, marginally higher than our estimate of `856cr. It should be
noted that the decline was on account of high base in 4QFY2011. On a sequential
basis, revenue grew by 24.8%. On the margin front, the company posted
EBITDAM of 9.5%, tad lower than our estimate of 10.0%. Interest cost stood at
`15cr, registering a decline of 10.4% yoy/5.6% qoq and higher than our estimate
of `12cr. On the earnings front, SEL reported a 13.0% yoy decline to `47cr, lower
than our expectation of `53cr. We were expecting higher earnings on the back of
bonus income (`8cr-10cr) as per the companys guidance. SELs order book
stands at `7,554cr (2.8x FY2012 revenue), which provides good revenue visibility.
We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `199.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
2,989
10.6
153
10.2
17.9
12.3
2.0
7.7
0.8
FY2014E
3,314
10.6
170
11.3
16.4
11.1
1.7
7.2
0.8
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Electrosteel Castings (CMP: `19, TP: Under Review)

Electrosteel Castings 4QFY2012 net sales declined by 0.7% yoy to `503cr. The
companys EBITDA declined by 93.6% yoy to `5cr. Consequently, net profit
decreased by 84.7% yoy to `6cr. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock; our
target price is under review
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
1,984
16.2
180
5.2
10.7
3.5
0.3
0.9
FY2014E
2,074
8.5
64
1.9
3.7
9.9
0.3
0.9
Indoco Remedies (CMP - `58, TP - `81: Upside: 40%)

Indoco Remedies sales and net profit came in below our expectations. For the
quarter, the company posted sales of `147cr, growth of 22.4% yoy. Growth in the
domestic and exports segments stood at 14.1% and 36.9% yoy, respectively, which
aided the companys overall growth. On the operating front, gross and operating
margin came in at 56.0% and 14.5%, respectively. OPM came in below our
expectation of 14.1%. This along with higher interest cost along with deprecation
cost during the quarter aided the net profit to come at `12.3cr, in comparison to
`16cr estimated for the quarter. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a
target price of `81.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
March
FY2013E
FY2014E
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
685
15.2
68
7.4
16.9
8.0
0.2
6.2
0.9
837
15.2
82
8.9
16.9
6.7
0.1
5.8
0.9
Result Previews
ONGC
ONGC is slated to announce its 4QFY2012 results. We expect the companys top
line to decrease by 5.6% yoy to `14,530cr on account of higher subsidy. The
companys EBITDA margin is expected to decline by 699bp yoy to 48.6%. The
bottom line is expected to decrease by 5.0% yoy to `2,652cr. We continue to
maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `319.
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Tata Motors
Tata Motors (TTMT) is set to declare its 4QFY2012 results. On a consolidated
basis, we expect the companys top line to grow by robust ~41% yoy to
`50,188cr, driven by impressive 48% yoy growth in JLR volumes. The companys
EBITDA margin is expected to expand by 170bp yoy to 14.2%, led by stable
commodity prices, improved operating leverage and favorable currency
movement. As a result, the bottom line is expected to grow sharply by ~48% yoy to
`3,645cr. The stock rating is under review.
Sun Pharma
For the quarter, Sun Pharma is likely to register 19% yoy sales growth mainly on
the back of integration of Taro, which will drive its export formulation sales during
the period. Along with strong top-line growth on account of the integration, the
company's OPM is expected to expand by 1,080bp yoy, with margin likely to be
around 41.1%. The company's net profit for the quarter is expected to register
75.0% yoy growth. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target
price of `634.
SAIL
SAIL is expected to announce its 4QFY2012 results. We expect the companys top
line to grow by 2.0% yoy to `12,183cr mainly on account of higher realization.
However, EBITDA margin is expected to decline by 295bp yoy to 14.0%
on account of higher input costs. The bottom line is expected to decline by 16.2%
yoy to `1,263cr. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target
price of `102.
IPCA Labs
We estimate Ipca Labs top line to grow by 42.0% yoy to `673cr for 4QFY2012.
The company's OPM is expected to expand by 170bp yoy to 20.7%. However,
adjusted net profit is expected to decline by 5.3% yoy. We maintain our Buy view
on the stock with a target price of `443.
Aurobindo Pharma
For the quarter, Aurobindo Pharma is expected to post a decline of 4.0% yoy in its
net sales. Consequently, the company's margin is likely to dip to 13.9%, which will
lead to a dip of 63% yoy in its net profit to `47cr. We maintain our Buy view on the
stock with a target price of `175.
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Nagarjuna Construction Company

We expect subdued performance from Nagarjuna Construction (NCC) for this
quarter. On the top-line front, NCC is expected to post a decline of 1.5% to
`1,429cr. EBITDA margin is expected to witness a dip of 160bp yoy to 7.4% for
the quarter. However, the blow is expected on the earnings front, as we expect the
company to post a decline of 72.6% on a yoy basis to `9.8cr for the quarter. This
would be primarily on account of muted revenue and EBITDAM and burgeoning
interest cost (yoy jump of 23.1%), led by elongated working capital cycle.
We recommend Buy on the stock; the target price is under review.
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

GMR Infra Ltd - Consolidated (29/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
2,024
1,962
1,999
EBITDA
510
(373)
(237)
469
EBITDA margin (%)
25.2
-19.0
(79)
(936)
-)
(192)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
50,468
39,667
27
47,917
4,974
2,201
126
3,703
34
9.9
5.5
4,355
1,123
288
2,725
60
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
16,911
15,396
10
18,124
(7)
9,312
7,972
17
11,051
(16)
55.1
51.8
4,058
2,791
Net profit
23.5
HPCL Ltd - (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
7.7
ONGC Ltd - (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
61.0
45
6,741
(40)
Power Grid Corporation Ltd (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
842
751
12
809
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
12,769
11,945
10,594
21
2,079
2,340
(11)
1,581
31
SAIL - (29/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
16.3
19.6
1,269
1,507
14.9
(16)
632
101
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Sun Pharmaceutical - Consolidated (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
2,062
1,463
41
2,145
(4)
EBITDA
828
510
62
964
(14)
EBITDA margin (%)
40.2
34.9
Net profit
661
443
Net sales
44.9
49
565
17
Tata Motors - Consolidated (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
49,815
36,452
37
45,199
10
7,390
4,675
58
6,827
14.8
12.8
3,865
2,638
47
3,427
13
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
1,850
1,597
16
1,954
(5)
(1)
200
15
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
15.1
United Spirits Ltd - (29/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
230
233
EBITDA margin (%)
12.4
14.6
59
77
(23)
47
26
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
696
582
20
670
EBITDA
155
144
149
EBITDA margin (%)
22.3
24.7
Net profit
125
114
10
116
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
2,338
2,683
(13)
2,034
15
EBITDA
1,013
666
52
823
23
EBITDA margin (%)
43.3
24.8
Net profit
275
313
(12)
247
11
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
10,504
8,894
18
11,260
(7)
1,795
(23)
Net profit
10.2
Colgate - (30/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
22.2
DLF Ltd - Consolidated (30/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
40.5
Gail Ltd - (30/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
1,389
1,288
EBITDA margin (%)
13.2
14.5
Net profit
832
783
1,091
(24)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
503
524
(4)
90
459
EBITDA
223
256
(13)
51
337
EBITDA margin (%)
44.3
48.9
Net profit
155
197
15.9
HDIL - (30/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
56.7
(21)
24
546
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Jaiprakash Associates - (30/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
4,113
3,905
3,258
26
EBITDA
918
851
816
13
EBITDA margin (%)
22.3
21.8
Net profit
228
302
Net sales
25.0
(25)
205
11
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd - (30/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
8,163
6,682
22
8,327
(2)
EBITDA
932
862
1,021
(9)
EBITDA margin (%)
11.4
12.9
Net profit
614
607
Net sales
12.3
1
662
(7)
Tata Chemical Ltd - Consolidated (30/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
3,369
2,623
28
3,794
(11)
13
556
(1)
Net sales
EBITDA
549
486
EBITDA margin (%)
16.3
18.5
Net profit
204
198
14.7
3
254
Economic and Political News
Subbarao indicates more interventions over ` slide

No plan to raise prices of diesel, LPG or kerosene: Government
Assocham asks government to reduce taxes on petrol, diesel
Corporate News
RBI eases banks' term deposit foreclosure restrictions

Exposure limits of banks in gold loan NBFCs cut
EGoM meet on June 5 for fixing spectrum base price
OIL in talks to buy 51% stake in Reliance Gas Transportation
Tata Motors signs distribution agreement in Myanmar
Jindal Steel buys 10% stake in Gujarat NRE's Aussie subsidiary
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
(20)
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Result Calendar
Date
Company
May 31, 2012
ONGC, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Power Grid Corpn, SAIL, United Spirits, HPCL, GMR Infra., Aurobindo Pharma,
Ipca labs, Nagarjuna Const., Prakash Industries, PVR
GAIL, M&M, DLF, Jaiprakash Asso., Colgate, Tata Chemicals, HDIL, Page Industries, BGR Energy , PTC India, Anant
Raj, GIPCL, Simplex Infra, SpiceJet, Greenply
-
June 01, 2012
Mphasis
May 29, 2012

May 30, 2012
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Country
May 29, 2012
US
May 30, 2012
Euro Zone
May 31, 2012
June 01, 2012
Event Description
Consumer Confidence
Unit
S.A./
1985=100
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
Apr-12
69.20
69.50
Value
May-12
(19.30)
(19.30)
US
Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
19-May-12
370.00
370.00
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Apr-12
19.00
(6.50)
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
Mar-12
2.20
1.90
India
Qtrly GDP YoY%
% Change
Dec-11
6.10
6.00
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
May-12
45.00
45.00
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Apr-12
115.00
150.00
US
Unnemployment rate
Apr-12
8.10
8.10
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Apr-12
53.30
51.90
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Mar-12
24.28
--
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Mar-12
(5.71)
--
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Apr-12
50.50
49.70
June 05, 2012
Germany
PMI Services
Value
May-12
52.20
--
June 06, 2012
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
Mar-12
--
--
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
May-12
1.00
--
June 07, 2012
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
May-12
0.50
0.50
June 09, 2012
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
9.30
--
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Apr-12
3.40
--
June 10, 2012
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Apr-12
4.90
--
June 12, 2012
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Mar-12
(3.50)
--
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
(2.60)
--
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Apr-12
(0.20)
--
June 13, 2012
Market Strategy
May 29, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

(%)
(%)
9.8
10.0
Exhibit 2: IIP trends

12.0
9.4
9.0
8.0
7.5
8.3
7.8
7.6
7.4
8.0
7.7
6.9
5.8
6.0
3.7
4.0
6.1
5.9
6.2
5.3
6.0
7.0
4.1
3.4
2.7
2.5
1.1
2.0
(6.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.8
10.0
9.9
7.7
8.0
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
6.9
7.4
6.9
7.2
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
Repo rate
(%)
9.00
90
75
Reverse Repo rate
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
48.0
Sep-11
0.0
Aug-11
50.0
Jul-11
2.0
Jun-11
52.0
May-11
4.0
Jun-11
54.0
6.0
May-11
10.0
(3.5)
(5.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
12.0
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
4QFY09
3QFY09
(4.0)
May-11
(2.0)
5.0
Jun-11
Apr-11
6.0
9.5
10.0
8.5
CRR
8.00
8.00
60
7.00
45
30
6.00
4.75
5.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
4.00
May-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
May-12
15
(15)
7.00
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
129
2,508
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
18.4
16.1
3.9
3.3
22.8
22.3
1.8
1.5
United Phosphorus
Buy
117
183
5,372
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
6.8
6.4
1.1
1.0
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Accumulate
308
345
2,634
2,691
3,032
15.6
15.5
29.4
32.8
10.5
9.4
2.5
2.0
26.5
23.6
0.9
0.8
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
89
100
4,476
13,699
15,184
10.5
10.2
12.1
13.3
7.3
6.7
1.3
1.1
19.7
18.4
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
25
33
6,585
14,798
16,687
9.6
9.6
2.4
3.0
10.2
8.3
2.0
1.8
14.8
16.5
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle
Accumulate
459
514
693
1,211
1,387
12.1
11.7
50.3
57.1
9.1
8.0
2.3
1.9
27.8
25.7
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,513
1,835
43,773
22,118
24,889
19.0
18.6
115.7
126.5
13.1
12.0
5.2
4.2
45.0
38.9
1.6
1.3
Bharat Forge
Buy
319
372
7,417
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
14.3
12.0
2.8
2.3
21.0
21.0
1.1
0.9
Bosch India
Accumulate
8,819
9,429
27,691
9,390
10,716
19.5
19.1
420.2
471.4
21.0
18.7
4.9
4.1
23.3
21.8
2.7
2.3
CEAT
Buy
95
164
325
5,067
5,631
8.0
7.6
39.4
41.0
2.4
2.3
0.4
0.4
18.8
16.5
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Buy
126
146
10,676
5,787
6,595
15.5
17.0
7.1
9.0
17.7
14.0
3.1
2.7
18.6
20.3
1.5
1.2
FAG Bearings
Neutral
1,596
2,651
1,531
1,748
18.8
18.5
118.0
132.8
13.5
12.0
2.9
2.4
24.0
21.9
1.5
1.2
Hero Motocorp
Buy
1,849
2,280
36,929
26,106
29,296
15.0
15.2
140.3
148.1
13.2
12.5
6.2
4.8
54.8
43.3
1.1
0.9
JK Tyre
Buy
75
113
310
8,058
9,025
5.4
5.5
24.8
32.2
3.0
2.3
0.3
0.3
11.4
13.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
654
793
40,169
34,740
39,263
10.7
11.0
44.9
51.7
14.6
12.7
2.6
2.3
18.9
19.1
0.8
0.7
Maruti
Buy
1,104
1,510
31,887
42,683
48,736
7.1
7.5
86.6
100.6
12.7
11.0
1.8
1.6
15.3
15.5
0.5
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Buy
163
216
6,324
11,167
12,516
9.5
10.0
11.3
14.4
14.4
11.4
3.1
2.6
23.3
24.7
0.7
0.6
Subros
Neutral
32
191
1,225
1,393
8.5
8.2
4.2
5.0
7.6
6.4
0.8
0.7
10.3
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Accumulate
277
312
73,717 191,183 210,301
12.8
12.8
39.4
43.6
7.0
6.3
2.5
1.9
40.4
34.3
0.5
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
36
55
1,687
7,982
8,816
6.4
6.3
5.0
5.6
7.1
6.4
1.3
1.1
18.9
18.2
0.2
0.2
ABB*
Sell
751
498
15,924
8,760
10,023
6.4
6.4
18.2
20.7
41.2
36.2
5.6
5.0
14.4
14.6
1.8
1.6
BGR Energy
Reduce
300
274
2,166
4,170
5,396
11.5
10.4
27.2
30.4
11.0
9.9
1.8
1.6
17.3
17.4
1.1
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
217
53,137
46,344
46,916
18.3
18.6
23.5
24.1
9.2
9.0
1.8
1.6
21.3
18.9
1.0
1.0
Blue Star
Buy
160
221
1,437
3,250
3,551
5.9
5.9
12.4
15.8
12.9
10.1
2.6
2.2
21.2
23.8
0.5
0.4
Crompton Greaves
Buy
110
164
7,044
12,936
14,101
9.6
10.0
10.9
11.7
10.1
9.4
1.7
1.5
18.4
17.3
0.6
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
40
67
328
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
3.7
3.0
0.4
0.4
12.7
13.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
51
73
1,307
6,686
7,200
7.7
7.9
10.6
12.2
4.8
4.2
0.9
0.8
25.9
24.0
0.3
0.3
LMW
Buy
1,529
2,609
1,722
2,663
3,130
12.8
12.8
185.0
217.4
8.3
7.0
1.6
1.4
21.2
21.7
0.2
0.1
Thermax
Neutral
441
5,258
5,514
5,559
8.3
8.0
29.7
28.4
14.9
15.6
2.8
2.5
20.2
16.9
0.8
0.8
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,163
21,830
11,018
12,663
19.9
21.2
70.7
81.2
16.5
14.3
2.9
2.6
18.0
19.0
1.7
1.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
145
22,274
10,035
11,504
23.5
23.8
10.1
10.6
14.3
13.7
2.8
2.5
18.5
19.4
1.8
1.5
India Cements
Neutral
77
2,367
4,423
4,906
18.2
18.8
9.9
12.7
7.8
6.1
0.7
0.6
8.6
10.5
0.8
0.7
J K Lakshmi Cements
Buy
63
79
774
1,938
2,246
19.1
20.1
14.6
16.1
4.3
3.9
0.6
0.5
13.4
13.6
0.5
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
141
3,345
3,444
3,786
25.5
24.9
14.6
17.1
9.7
8.2
1.4
1.2
15.6
16.0
1.6
1.3
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,576
8,975
5,465
6,249
24.3
23.7
151.5
222.1
17.0
11.6
4.1
3.5
21.6
25.8
1.4
1.0
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,390
38,103
20,116
22,655
21.3
22.5
82.1
97.5
16.9
14.3
2.7
2.3
16.8
17.4
1.8
1.7
199
302
1,047
2,014
2,294
22.4
22.4
28.4
30.8
7.0
6.5
0.9
0.8
14.1
13.3
2.3
2.6
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
264
2,526
2,792
5.7
6.6
1.8
2.8
7.8
5.0
0.4
0.4
5.5
8.1
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
18
1,101
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(10.1)
(23.3)
1.0
1.2
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
117
166
3,877
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
7.8
6.9
1.2
1.0
16.1
15.8
2.6
2.4
ITNL
Buy
173
265
3,364
6,619
7,925
23.8
23.3
22.0
26.7
7.9
6.5
1.1
1.0
14.9
15.9
2.2
2.1
IVRCL Infra
Buy
43
79
1,157
5,758
6,860
9.2
9.2
4.7
6.0
9.3
7.2
0.5
0.5
6.0
7.3
0.7
0.6
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
62
104
13,237
16,017
18,359
24.4
23.5
4.2
5.0
14.8
12.4
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.7
2.1
1.9
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,203
1,553
73,647
59,559
69,089
12.1
11.5
70.8
76.5
17.0
15.7
2.6
2.2
16.1
15.3
1.4
1.2
Madhucon Proj
Buy
43
70
317
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
9.3
9.2
0.5
0.5
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
33
76
834
5,790
7,022
9.2
9.5
3.5
5.4
9.3
6.0
0.3
0.3
3.7
5.6
0.8
0.7
Patel Engg.
Neutral
87
608
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
6.2
6.0
0.4
0.4
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
48
1,581
10,592
12,193
8.4
8.4
2.9
4.6
16.4
10.5
0.5
0.5
3.9
3.1
0.6
0.6
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
125
199
1,878
2,989
3,315
10.6
10.6
10.2
11.3
12.3
11.1
2.0
1.7
17.6
16.3
0.8
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
215
316
1,064
6,732
7,902
9.3
9.6
27.2
35.1
7.9
6.1
0.8
0.7
11.0
12.6
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Accumulate
140
156
7,018
7,392
8,542
3.1
3.1
38.3
42.1
3.7
3.3
0.6
0.6
18.4
17.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
107
5,982
5,151
5,843
3.2
3.1
22.4
25.7
4.8
4.2
0.7
0.7
15.8
16.0
Axis Bank
Buy
1,028
1,476
42,526
16,157
19,557
3.2
3.2
116.4
139.1
8.8
7.4
1.6
1.4
20.0
20.3
Bank of Baroda
Buy
687
925
26,895
15,993
18,918
2.6
2.6
127.3
149.9
5.4
4.6
0.9
0.8
17.8
18.2
Bank of India
Buy
330
411
18,935
13,558
15,551
2.5
2.4
61.6
70.8
5.4
4.7
0.9
0.8
16.8
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
Canara Bank
Buy
Central Bank
Neutral
Financials
49
53
2,913
3,580
4,050
3.2
3.2
11.5
13.1
4.3
3.8
0.7
0.6
17.4
17.2
405
522
17,948
12,061
13,906
2.3
2.3
83.1
92.7
4.9
4.4
0.8
0.7
16.7
16.4
76
5,561
6,838
7,912
2.3
2.4
13.8
20.3
5.5
3.7
0.8
0.7
10.9
14.4
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Buy
415
486
6,141
5,203
5,880
2.2
2.1
107.5
112.7
3.9
3.7
0.7
0.6
17.9
16.5
Dena Bank
Buy
87
111
3,060
3,149
3,522
2.8
2.8
23.3
26.1
3.8
3.4
0.6
0.5
17.7
17.0
Federal Bank
Neutral
416
7,110
2,743
3,131
3.4
3.3
49.7
57.4
8.4
7.2
1.1
1.0
14.1
14.6
HDFC
Neutral
664
98,131
7,393
8,844
3.5
3.4
31.7
37.9
21.0
17.5
4.2
3.7
34.7
31.9
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
508
567
119,275
21,831
27,477
4.3
4.3
28.3
35.5
18.0
14.3
3.5
2.9
20.8
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
835
1,174
95,919
22,209
26,512
2.8
2.8
67.9
81.1
12.3
10.3
1.5
1.4
14.7
16.0
IDBI Bank
Buy
Indian Bank
Accumulate
IOB
Buy
J & K Bank
89
117
11,397
8,004
9,589
1.9
2.0
19.9
23.9
4.5
3.7
0.6
0.5
13.8
14.9
175
197
7,502
6,312
7,119
3.4
3.3
41.1
43.7
4.2
4.0
0.7
0.6
18.2
16.9
82
96
6,547
7,354
8,283
2.5
2.4
16.3
21.7
5.1
3.8
0.6
0.5
11.5
13.9
Neutral
915
4,437
2,535
2,861
3.5
3.4
176.3
184.4
5.2
5.0
0.9
0.8
19.3
17.6
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
244
286
12,334
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
10.0
8.0
1.9
1.6
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Buy
230
274
6,699
6,431
7,315
2.7
2.6
54.4
63.8
4.2
3.6
0.6
0.5
13.6
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
749
1,015
25,416
19,893
23,653
3.1
3.2
153.4
175.2
4.9
4.3
0.9
0.7
18.3
18.1
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
22
2,531
1,399
1,596
2.6
2.5
3.5
3.8
6.4
5.9
1.1
1.0
18.7
17.5
St Bk of India
Buy
2,100
2,486
140,943
68,925
80,565
3.7
3.7
236.6
282.7
8.9
7.4
1.5
1.3
18.6
19.3
Syndicate Bank
Buy
93
131
5,580
7,133
8,255
3.0
3.0
25.9
30.0
3.6
3.1
0.6
0.5
16.9
17.1
UCO Bank
Neutral
69
4,577
5,623
6,380
2.4
2.4
16.9
17.9
4.1
3.9
0.8
0.7
16.5
15.4
Union Bank
Buy
208
276
11,446
10,215
11,854
2.9
2.8
42.7
50.3
4.9
4.1
0.8
0.7
17.0
17.5
United Bank
Buy
59
78
2,132
3,551
4,128
2.7
2.8
18.8
22.6
3.2
2.6
0.5
0.4
15.5
16.5
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
54
2,688
2,668
3,001
2.2
2.2
10.6
12.2
5.1
4.4
0.7
0.6
13.3
13.8
Yes Bank
Buy
338
450
11,960
3,209
4,144
2.7
2.8
33.9
41.5
10.0
8.1
2.1
1.7
23.1
23.3
3,822
36,660
11,423
13,309
16.3
16.3
125.3
148.4
30.5
25.8
10.4
8.1
38.0
35.4
3.1
2.7
538
650
6,425
5,906
6,856
6.9
7.0
22.3
28.3
24.1
19.0
9.8
7.3
45.2
44.1
1.1
0.9
1,224
16,651
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
37.7
42.6
32.5
28.8
38.7
31.2
129.4
120.1
5.4
4.8
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
105
18,266
5,878
6,799
16.8
17.0
4.2
4.9
25.3
21.3
9.2
7.5
39.3
42.0
3.1
2.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,603
10,946
3,124
3,663
17.1
11.6
103.0
123.3
25.3
21.1
7.8
6.3
34.0
32.9
3.2
2.6
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
566
19,249
5,973
7,000
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.2
24.8
20.8
6.8
5.5
31.3
38.4
3.4
2.9
HUL
Neutral
418
90,243
25,350
29,309
14.3
14.4
14.1
16.4
29.6
25.5
22.1
17.3
82.7
76.2
3.4
2.9
ITC
Accumulate
235
252
183,616
28,955
33,595
35.9
35.7
9.2
10.5
25.6
22.4
8.2
6.8
34.8
33.1
6.0
5.2
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
178
11,478
4,667
5,427
12.8
12.9
6.6
8.1
26.8
21.9
7.2
5.6
30.0
28.8
2.5
2.1
Nestle*
Neutral
4,546
43,831
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
119.3
147.9
38.1
30.7
23.4
15.9
73.0
61.6
5.1
4.1
Tata Global
Buy
111
136
6,870
7,011
7,712
9.7
10.0
6.0
7.1
18.7
15.6
1.7
1.6
8.9
10.2
0.9
0.8
HCL Tech
Accumulate
491
560
33,991
22,792
25,743
17.4
17.4
37.8
43.0
13.0
11.4
2.9
2.4
22.3
21.3
1.5
1.2
Hexaware
Neutral
126
3,739
1,821
2,105
19.0
18.6
9.8
10.7
12.9
11.8
3.0
2.6
23.7
22.5
1.8
1.5
Infosys
Buy
2,388
2,792
137,106
37,615
42,491
31.1
30.6
158.5
174.5
15.1
13.7
3.4
2.9
22.5
20.8
3.0
2.5
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
165
177
1,840
1,758
1,972
17.0
16.6
16.8
18.6
9.8
8.9
1.3
1.2
13.6
13.2
0.7
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Neutral
119
2,111
2,028
2,239
15.0
14.8
9.0
11.4
13.2
10.4
2.4
2.0
19.3
18.7
1.0
0.9
Mahindra Satyam
Accumulate
76
86
8,973
7,097
7,812
16.2
16.0
7.5
8.0
10.2
9.6
1.3
1.2
13.2
12.3
0.9
0.7
Mindtree
Neutral
618
2,509
2,172
2,450
16.1
15.5
53.9
58.5
11.5
10.6
2.2
1.8
18.9
17.0
1.0
0.8
Mphasis
Accumulate
380
433
7,985
5,904
6,320
18.3
17.9
38.7
41.2
9.8
9.2
1.5
1.3
14.9
13.7
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Buy
39
52
640
1,162
1,304
14.8
15.1
7.1
8.8
5.5
4.4
0.9
0.8
16.7
18.4
0.4
0.3
Persistent
Neutral
346
1,384
1,109
1,224
23.3
22.4
37.2
40.1
9.3
8.6
1.4
1.3
15.4
14.5
0.9
0.8
TCS
Neutral
1,224
239,515
57,189
66,329
29.3
28.7
63.2
70.9
19.4
17.3
5.9
4.8
30.5
27.7
3.9
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
667
725
8,508
5,880
6,314
15.6
15.2
75.9
82.2
8.8
8.1
1.8
1.5
20.1
18.1
1.4
1.2
Wipro
Accumulate
399
430
98,083
41,918
46,879
19.4
19.9
25.1
28.7
15.9
13.9
3.0
2.6
18.6
18.3
2.0
1.7
D B Corp
Buy
197
269
3,611
1,652
1,863
25.7
26.3
13.5
16.1
14.6
12.3
3.3
2.8
24.1
24.4
2.1
1.8
HT Media
Buy
112
148
2,632
2,255
2,555
16.3
16.7
9.0
10.6
12.4
10.6
1.6
1.4
13.4
13.8
0.8
0.6
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
86
137
2,712
1,499
1,642
27.4
28.8
7.6
9.1
11.2
9.5
3.8
3.4
34.6
37.7
1.8
1.6
PVR
Neutral
158
409
625
732
17.4
16.9
12.4
15.8
12.7
10.0
2.0
2.1
8.5
9.9
0.8
0.7
Sun TV Network
Neutral
248
9,756
2,135
2,458
75.2
74.4
20.9
24.0
11.9
10.3
2.8
2.3
26.0
25.1
3.5
2.8
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
443
9,417
9,232
13,557
30.8
31.1
48.0
58.6
9.2
7.6
1.2
1.0
14.5
7.5
3.2
2.2
Coal India
Accumulate
315
351
198,997
65,654
71,756
26.8
27.3
24.0
26.3
13.1
12.0
3.6
2.9
30.4
27.0
2.1
1.7
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
20
27
680
1,984
2,074
10.6
12.0
2.7
3.3
7.3
6.0
0.4
0.1
5.2
6.2
0.5
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
121
139
51,126
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
8.2
7.3
1.6
1.3
21.2
19.9
2.2
1.6
Hindalco
Neutral
115
22,008
84,652
88,766
9.6
10.5
17.0
18.9
6.8
6.1
0.6
0.6
9.7
9.8
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Accumulate
609
663
13,582
39,592
44,910
18.0
17.7
74.7
88.9
8.2
6.9
0.8
0.7
10.7
11.6
0.7
0.7
MOIL
Reduce
272
255
4,572
979
1,061
45.7
46.8
24.5
26.6
11.1
10.2
1.7
1.6
16.1
15.8
2.5
2.2
Monnet Ispat
Buy
416
593
2,673
3,115
3,748
22.1
25.1
59.1
66.8
7.0
6.2
1.0
0.9
15.6
15.3
1.6
1.2
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
58
51
14,935
8,276
8,578
12.7
16.4
2.5
3.5
22.9
16.6
1.3
1.2
5.6
7.5
1.4
1.4
168
185
66,528
11,726
12,890
77.8
78.4
18.6
20.6
9.0
8.2
2.1
1.8
26.1
23.8
3.5
3.0
SAIL
Sesa Goa
Accumulate
93
102
38,579
52,461
62,935
18.0
18.8
13.2
14.5
7.1
6.4
0.8
0.8
12.4
12.3
1.1
1.0
Accumulate
187
206
16,222
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
4.2
4.2
0.9
0.8
23.5
19.5
0.4
Sterlite Inds
0.1
Buy
98
123
33,085
45,805
49,029
21.2
23.5
16.5
19.1
6.0
5.1
0.7
0.6
11.5
12.0
0.3
Tata Steel
0.2
Buy
412
499
39,990 143,088 148,011
10.9
12.1
53.9
66.0
7.6
6.2
0.9
0.8
12.2
13.4
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Accumulate
328
372
62,565
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.4
6.8
1.1
0.9
18.3
14.8
2.9
2.1
GAIL
Buy
328
392
41,543
50,472
55,503
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
9.2
8.8
1.6
1.4
18.7
17.0
0.5
0.4
ONGC
Buy
254
319
217,181 148,157 150,563
37.6
39.5
31.0
33.6
8.2
7.6
1.5
1.3
18.8
18.1
1.1
1.0
Reliance Industries
Buy
701
872
229,612 325,734 328,669
10.9
11.7
65.8
70.1
10.7
10.0
1.1
1.0
11.9
11.5
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
50
91
948
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
7.6
5.5
1.9
1.4
27.5
29.2
0.8
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
117
175
3,409
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
13.8
14.7
8.5
8.0
1.0
0.4
11.4
10.9
1.0
0.9
Aventis*
Neutral
2,081
4,793
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
21.9
20.0
3.9
3.0
18.6
17.0
3.0
2.6
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
752
953
15,401
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
43.3
50.8
17.4
14.8
4.5
3.6
25.4
24.8
2.5
2.0
Cipla
Buy
313
379
25,123
7,687
8,804
21.4
21.4
16.5
18.9
19.0
16.6
2.9
2.6
16.7
16.8
3.2
2.8
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,697
28,755
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
20.3
18.3
4.2
3.5
22.4
21.0
2.8
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Buy
53
92
429
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
5.8
4.7
0.4
0.4
7.7
8.5
1.0
0.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,003
16,969
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
26.4
24.3
7.6
6.6
30.8
29.0
5.5
4.7
Indoco Remedies
Buy
55
665
511
685
837
15.2
15.2
55.5
66.5
1.0
0.8
0.2
0.1
16.4
16.9
0.9
0.9
Ipca labs
Buy
335
443
4,214
2,907
3,541
21.5
21.5
32.4
40.6
10.3
8.3
2.6
2.1
27.8
27.7
1.6
1.3
Lupin
Buy
532
646
23,784
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
29.7
32.4
17.9
16.4
4.7
3.7
27.0
25.2
2.7
2.2
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
124
178
876
2,117
2,434
17.7
17.7
16.7
22.2
7.4
5.6
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.5
1.1
0.9
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
525
22,148
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
35.7
29.8
14.7
17.6
5.5
4.5
43.1
28.1
1.9
1.8
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
570
634
58,653
9,272
11,080
40.3
36.3
26.7
28.8
21.3
19.8
4.3
3.7
22.1
20.8
5.6
4.6
CESC
Buy
272
342
3,392
5,084
5,512
24.2
23.8
45.2
48.5
6.0
5.6
0.6
0.6
11.2
10.9
1.1
1.1
GIPCL
Buy
61
98
926
1,557
1,573
28.7
27.5
10.4
10.2
5.9
6.0
0.6
0.6
10.5
9.6
1.1
0.9
NTPC
Accumulate
145
158
119,147
74,766
86,549
23.1
23.4
12.4
14.1
11.6
10.3
1.5
1.3
13.0
13.5
2.3
2.1
46
78
1,368
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
5.5
3.7
0.3
0.3
6.3
8.9
3.4
2.5
189
32,125
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
19.8
14.1
1.3
1.2
6.4
8.7
5.7
4.7
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
64
115
2,700
2,441
3,344
53.0
46.7
21.4
25.4
3.0
2.5
0.2
0.2
8.4
9.1
3.0
2.2
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
302
114,799
80,967
88,684
33.1
33.4
17.9
22.0
16.9
13.7
1.9
1.7
11.5
12.5
2.1
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
79
26,260
22,558
25,326
26.4
27.5
3.2
4.7
24.6
16.7
1.9
1.7
7.5
10.0
1.6
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
67
13,901
21,899
23,740
32.7
32.7
4.2
6.7
15.9
10.1
0.3
0.3
2.1
3.2
2.1
1.7
215
245
2,139
3,670
4,384
8.5
8.5
18.3
22.3
11.7
9.6
2.6
2.1
23.9
24.3
0.6
0.5
zOthers
Bajaj Electrical
Accumulate
CRISIL
Neutral
1,068
7,497
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
31.1
26.7
14.1
11.3
50.9
46.9
7.2
6.1
Finolex Cables
Buy
38
61
574
2,334
2,687
8.8
9.3
7.6
10.2
4.9
3.7
0.6
0.6
13.7
16.1
0.2
0.1
Graphite India
Buy
91
124
1,777
2,158
2,406
18.1
18.9
12.4
14.0
7.3
6.5
1.0
0.9
14.0
14.3
1.0
0.8
Greenply
Buy
211
298
508
1,800
2,047
11.1
11.6
34.1
49.6
6.2
4.3
1.1
0.9
20.2
23.7
0.5
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
3,103
3,461
935
1,168
19.6
19.6
99.7
122.2
31.1
25.4
18.0
14.4
64.2
63.1
3.8
3.0
Sintex
Buy
57
129
1,549
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
4.2
3.6
0.6
0.5
13.1
13.4
0.7
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
268
439
251
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
4.0
3.4
0.8
0.7
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
SpiceJet
Neutral
32
1,555
5,384
6,443
(1.0)
4.1
(3.4)
2.4
(9.4)
13.4
(13.0)
27.4
0.5
0.4
Taj GVK
Buy
61
108
380
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.7
6.7
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.6
1.3
Goodyear
Accumulate
332
372
765
1,571
1,753
7.2
8.6
29.8
42.4
11.1
7.8
2.1
1.7
20.2
24.3
0.3
0.2
HEG
Buy
209
242
834
1,746
1,946
16.5
17.7
22.5
32.9
9.3
6.3
0.9
0.9
10.4
14.2
1.1
1.1
Hitachi
Buy
124
160
285
857
968
6.9
8.4
10.2
16.0
12.2
7.8
1.5
1.3
12.9
17.8
0.4
0.4
Honeywell Automation
Neutral
2,716
2,401
1,542
1,739
9.4
10.0
116.1
140.8
23.4
19.3
3.3
2.9
15.5
15.9
Ineos ABS
Neutral
752
1,322
900
1,011
10.2
11.5
35.6
45.7
21.1
16.5
3.1
2.6
15.4
17.2
ITD Cementation
Neutral
232
267
1,535
1,842
11.1
11.1
27.3
38.3
8.5
6.1
0.7
0.6
7.9
10.2
0.6
0.6
MRF
Buy
10,900
13,106
4,623
12,390
14,400
10.4
11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2
8.2
6.7
1.6
1.3
16.5
17.4
0.6
0.5
Relaxo
Accumulate
423
478
508
1,019
1,208
11.0
10.8
44.9
53.1
9.4
8.0
2.3
1.8
27.2
25.0
0.7
0.6
Tata Sponge
Buy
273
420
421
757
875
19.0
19.1
63.5
72.9
4.3
3.7
0.7
0.6
16.1
16.1
0.1
TVS Srichakra
Buy
328
462
251
1,612
1,827
9.5
9.8
72.3
92.5
4.5
3.6
1.3
1.0
33.1
32.1
0.4
0.3
Vesuvius India
Neutral
Abbott India
Accumulate
Cera Sanitaryware Ltd

Jyothy Laboratories
Force Motors
371
752
621
711
15.3
15.5
27.3
32.4
13.6
11.5
2.2
1.9
17.2
17.6
1.0
0.9
1,457
1,628
3,097
1,661
1,918
9.7
12.0
60.7
90.4
24.0
16.1
4.9
4.0
22.0
27.3
1.6
1.4
Buy
250
288
317
385
444
17.2
17.4
28.9
32.0
8.7
7.8
1.8
1.5
23.4
21.1
1.0
0.9
Buy
214
248
1,726
1,359
1,627
10.3
12.9
13.9
20.6
15.4
10.4
5.0
3.7
35.8
41.3
1.7
1.4
Buy
469
680
611
2,346
2,753
6.7
7.0
50.9
61.9
9.2
7.6
0.5
0.5
5.5
6.3
0.2
0.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 28, 2012
Market Outlook
May 29, 2012

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

May 29, 2012

Delhi Government slashes Petrol Prices by `1.26/ltr

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (May 25, 2012)

FII Derivatives (May 28, 2012)

OIL & GAS

Delhi government slashes petrol prices by `1.26/liter

NMDC (CMP-`167, TP: Under Review)

Bharat Forge (CMP: `319, TP: Under Review)

Britannia (CMP: `538, TP: `650, Upside: 20.8%)

Amara Raja Batteries (CMP: `308, TP: Under Review)

Bajaj Electricals (CMP: `215 / TP: `245 / Upside: 14%)

Sadbhav Engineering (CMP: `125 / TP: `199 / Upside: 59%)

Electrosteel Castings (CMP: `19, TP: Under Review)

Indoco Remedies (CMP - `58, TP - `81: Upside: 40%)

Nagarjuna Construction Company

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

EBITDA margin (%)

HPCL Ltd - (29/05/2012)

ONGC Ltd - (29/05/2012)

Power Grid Corporation Ltd (29/05/2012)

Sun Pharmaceutical - Consolidated (29/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Tata Motors - Consolidated (29/05/2012)

United Spirits Ltd - (29/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

DLF Ltd - Consolidated (30/05/2012)

Gail Ltd - (30/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

Jaiprakash Associates - (30/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd - (30/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Tata Chemical Ltd - Consolidated (30/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Economic and Political News

Subbarao indicates more interventions over ` slide

RBI eases banks' term deposit foreclosure restrictions

May 31, 2012

June 01, 2012

May 29, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

May 29, 2012

May 30, 2012

May 31, 2012

June 01, 2012

Unemployment change (000's)

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

Qtrly GDP YoY%

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

June 05, 2012

June 06, 2012

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

ECB announces interest rates

June 07, 2012

BOE Announces rates

June 09, 2012

Industrial Production (YoY)